Calling the Canadian election now.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

ROGER WAS RIGHT
MINUS THE LAYTON REFERENCE

CRAZY FRENCH GUY LOST HIS OWN RIDING

I was right about Layton.  He lost, bad enough that he couldn't prevent a majority.

I was right about the Crazy French Guy.

I know these things.

[hooplala]

Well, I'm not so sure you called it exactly.

While Layton did lose, he certainly wasn't whipped like a camel.  NDP have never shown like that before.


But still, you pretty much nailed it.

[Cain]

Looks like liberal support collapsed in Ontario and both the southern Ontario suburbs and BC went hardcore conservative, presumably based on the belief that Harper will keep house values high and thus keep people employed (this belief did not serve the manufacturing industry well).

Also looks like the Conservatives played quite dirty with the robo-calls, telling people polling stations had changed and so to go to different locations.  It seems to have happened predominatly in areas where Conservatives won big, which is why I suggest they were behind it.  I wouldn't expect any investigation under a Harper government, though.

[hooplala]

No, neither would I.

It came down to the cult of personality, from what I can tell.  Pretty much everyone I spoke to about it said a variation of "I won't vote for Iggy".  If the Grits could find an actual leader people could get behind this would all be different, but people just fucking loathe Ignatieff.  Fortunately he stepped down today... now we get to see what dead fish they prop up next.

Toronto recently voted in ultra conservative Rob Ford, and now this... something's blowing in the wind in Canada, and I don't like the smell.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

No, neither would I.

It came down to the cult of personality, from what I can tell.  Pretty much everyone I spoke to about it said a variation of "I won't vote for Iggy".  If the Grits could find an actual leader people could get behind this would all be different, but people just fucking loathe Ignatieff.  Fortunately he stepped down today... now we get to see what dead fish they prop up next.

Toronto recently voted in ultra conservative Rob Ford, and now this... something's blowing in the wind in Canada, and I don't like the smell.

Well...erm.  I think I can answer this better in a rant.  Stay tuned for The Road to Nowhere, part 2.

[Thurnez Isa]

Looks like liberal support collapsed in Ontario and both the southern Ontario suburbs and BC went hardcore conservative, presumably based on the belief that Harper will keep house values high and thus keep people employed (this belief did not serve the manufacturing industry well).

Also looks like the Conservatives played quite dirty with the robo-calls, telling people polling stations had changed and so to go to different locations.  It seems to have happened predominatly in areas where Conservatives won big, which is why I suggest they were behind it.  I wouldn't expect any investigation under a Harper government, though.

they also started on the "the NDP will raise your taxes and only the conservatives can stop them," line, which worked to steal the right of the liberal base in the suburbs.
They tried to play dirty here as well as bringing up the whole french/english debate, which in a city of 20-30% french worked against them and they went third, far behind the Liberals and winning NDP candidates.

[Remington]

I was right about Layton.

Erm... Layton tripled his party's seats? They doubled the NDP historical record too.

The NDP's goal wasn't to form the government: that's not what they're designed for and it would probably be a really bad idea. Their role is to force the other parties to make social/policy concessions, especially in cases of minority.

They won big this election.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I was right about Layton.

Erm... Layton tripled his party's seats? They doubled the NDP historical record too.

The NDP's goal wasn't to form the government: that's not what they're designed for and it would probably be a really bad idea. Their role is to force the other parties to make social/policy concessions, especially in cases of minority.

They won big this election.

Okay, I can see that, though I am puzzled by the idea of a party that doesn't intend to win.

What I had meant was that Layton wouldn't be able to prevent a conservative majority, which is the only actual standard of success at this point in time.  He and the NDP failed in this respect, which is what I meant.

[Thurnez Isa]

I'd be curious to see what the liberals do now.
Do they go to the right and try to recapture the vote they lost to the conservatives?
Do they go to the left and try to go after the NDP vote?
Do they just try again with a new leader?

I know what the NDP's plans are probably going to be. Wait for the conservatives to screw up the country now that they have the majority and play the tough guy while waiting.

[Remington]

I was right about Layton.

Erm... Layton tripled his party's seats? They doubled the NDP historical record too.

The NDP's goal wasn't to form the government: that's not what they're designed for and it would probably be a really bad idea. Their role is to force the other parties to make social/policy concessions, especially in cases of minority.

They won big this election.

Okay, I can see that, though I am puzzled by the idea of a party that doesn't intend to win.

What I had meant was that Layton wouldn't be able to prevent a conservative majority, which is the only actual standard of success at this point in time.  He and the NDP failed in this respect, which is what I meant.

Oh, okay.

I'm sure the NDP wants to win, it's just that them doing so would actually be really bad for Canada (economically). Whenever the NDP gets to govern (they have formed governments on a provincial level before), businesses pack up and leave in droves.

The small bright side of this Conservative majority is that it gives the Liberals time to get their shit together and choose an actual leader+platform.

[hooplala]

The Liberals are apparently thinking of bringing in...

...BOB RAE.