Pakistan accelerating nuclear program - no-one cares

[Cain]

http://www.newsweek.com/2011/05/15/fourth-nuclear-reactor-at-pakistan-s-khushab-site.html

Even in the best of times, Pakistan's nuclear-weapons program warrants alarm. But these are perilous days. At a moment of unprecedented misgiving between Washington and Islamabad, new evidence suggests that Pakistan's nuclear program is barreling ahead at a furious clip.

According to new commercial-satellite imagery obtained exclusively by NEWSWEEK, Pakistan is aggressively accelerating construction at the Khushab nuclear site, about 140 miles south of Islamabad. The images, analysts say, prove Pakistan will soon have a fourth operational reactor, greatly expanding plutonium production for its nuclear-weapons program.

"The buildup is remarkable," says Paul Brannan of the Institute for Science and International Security. "And that nobody in the U.S. or in the Pakistani government says anything about this—especially in this day and age—is perplexing."

Unlike Iran, which has yet to produce highly enriched uranium, or North Korea, which has produced plutonium but still lacks any real weapons capability, Pakistan is significantly ramping up its nuclear-weapons program. Eric Edelman, undersecretary of defense in the George W. Bush administration, puts it bluntly: "You're talking about Pakistan even potentially passing France at some point. That's extraordinary."

Pakistani officials say the buildup is a response to the threat from India, which is spending $50 billion over the next five years on its military. "But to say it's just an issue between just India and Pakistan is divorced from reality," says former senator Sam Nunn, who co-chairs the Nuclear Threat Initiative. "The U.S. and Soviet Union went through 40 years of the Cold War and came out every time from dangerous situations with lessons learned. Pakistan and India have gone through some dangerous times, and they have learned some lessons. But not all of them. Today, deterrence has fundamentally changed. The whole globe has a stake in this. It's extremely dangerous."

It's dangerous because Pakistan is also stockpiling fissile material, or bomb fuel. Since Islamabad can mine uranium on its own territory and has decades of enrichment know-how—beginning with the work of nuclear scientist A. Q. Khan—the potential for production is significant.

Although the White House declined to comment, a senior U.S. congressional official who works on nuclear issues told NEWSWEEK that intelligence estimates suggest Pakistan has already developed enough fissile material to produce more than 100 warheads and manufacture between eight and 20 weapons a year. "There's no question," the official says, "it's the fastest-growing program in the world."

Previous estimates had Pakistan at producing enough material for one or two extra missiles a year, max.

What, or who, are Pakistan so afraid of?  India?  It doesn't have the military capacity to destroy Pakistan in a nuclear war - and vice-versa.  No, fear is not guiding this flurry of production.

Is Pakistan resurrecting the AQ Khan illegal nuclear weapon network?  I sincerely hope not, but it cannot be ruled out.  Saudi Arabia only a month ago announced plans to build a "civilian" nuclear power plant, a fact that should arouse great suspicion since Riyadh heavily fund Pakistani forays into WMDs, and were also reportedly recipients of nuclear technology from A.Q. Khan.  A nuclear Sunni Kingdom to face a nuclear Shi'ite Islamic Republic, that seems to be the logic.

Pakistan isn't an NPT signatory, unlike Saudi Arabia.  That means, the IAEA can raid Saudi facilities and demand records on Saudi purchases and fissile material movements.  But Pakistan remains exempt.  Pakistani fissile material can be shipped abroad, and the IAEA would be none the wiser.

Furthermore, the more nuclear material Pakistan stockpiles, the more likely it will eventually fall into the wrong hands.  Tehrik-i-Taliban hands, or similar enough.  Strangely enough, the military are mostly good on the nuclear security issue, but the civilian side is appalling.

[Adios]

Do you know if they have ICBM's or shorter range delivery systems?

[Cain]

Their furthest confirmed range when it comes to missiles is 1200-1500 miles, with the Ghauri-II, which can carry a conventional or nuclear payload of 1200kg.  However, to reach the maximum range, the payload realistically needs to be closer to 750kg.

Of course, Pakistan has many unconfirmed missile programs, with technology coming in from all quarters, so who can rightly say what they have access to?

[Adios]

Their furthest confirmed range when it comes to missiles is 1200-1500 miles, with the Ghauri-II, which can carry a conventional or nuclear payload of 1200kg.  However, to reach the maximum range, the payload realistically needs to be closer to 750kg.

Of course, Pakistan has many unconfirmed missile programs, with technology coming in from all quarters, so who can rightly say what they have access to?

Even at 12-1500 miles that is enough to stir things up badly. This is either severe paranoia or some type of offensive. And it makes me nervous as hell, especially with all of the unrest in the region.