Turkey-Israel rift now complete and irrevocable

[Cain]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14800305

Mr Erdogan said Turkey was "totally suspending" defence industry ties with Israel, after downgrading diplomatic relations with the country.

"Trade ties, military ties, regarding defence industry ties, we are completely suspending them," he told reporters in Ankara. "This process will be followed by different measures."

Israel has totally diplomatically isolated itself, regionally.  It can now only rely on the USA, and giving the constant berating and propagandizing for the Republicans Netanahyu is engaging in, even that is not a given for the future.

[Nephew Twiddleton]

What happens next, do you think?

[Adios]

What happens next, do you think?

Other than Israel getting all self-righteous and even more protectionist?

[Nephew Twiddleton]

What happens next, do you think?

Other than Israel getting all self-righteous and even more protectionist?

Well, that's somewhat of a given.

[Cain]

In the short term, not much.

In the longer term, this reduces Israel's credibility even further in the Muslim world.  Many Asian states were not as big on the Israel-bashing as the Arabs (Malaysia, Indonesia etc) because they saw Israel could carry on a successful relationship with a mostly Muslim state.  They're probably going to rethink that, now, and maybe even start to provide diplomatic support to the Arab states, something they've been loathe to do in the past (Asian Muslim states see themselves as much superior, humane and cosmopolitan than compared to the Arab states.  They're basically the Muslim world's blue states, with the Arabs fittingly as the red states).

Israel's economy will also probably take a hit.

[Golden Applesauce]

How does this affect Turkey's relations with, say, Iran or Egypt?

(Is Turkey still trying for EU membership?  I guess that's off now, if they were.)

[Nephew Twiddleton]

As far as i can tell it wouldnt effect turkeys application process which iirc is still on. Just because the eu shares foreign policy doesnt mean it affects individual member nations' relatiobs with other contries.

[Nephew Twiddleton]

To add- the purpose of the eu is primarily of economic unity not necessarily political unity and it has a history of opt outs for its policies for member nations. I seem to recall something about member nations agreeing to some sort of military alliance which excludes ireland because ireland is a neutral country.

[Scribbly]

Europe is a giant, tangled mess.

I believe Turkey's application is being stalled on several fronts, including the fact that they are still refusing to accept the Armenian genocide occurred.

I'm not sure anyone would want to join in the current state, however, given that the past few weeks have seen it become more and more likely that the EU will rip itself apart. The last I can easily find on it is: 2011 January - The EU's Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fuele voices frustration at slow pace of talks on Turkish membership.

[Cain]

Some influential Turkish politicians have also made noises that the EU has been the one who is stalling the process (probably a quite accurate view, given the EU need for consensus, which must be managed across 27 member states) and so they're not sure if they're interested in living up to "hypocritical" EU standards (and here they have a point, as Turkey is still far more qualified to join the Union than Lithuania, or Romania, and yet...).

I can't remember exactly where I heard this, so no link, but it was just before the constitutional reforms in Turkey, so make of that what you will.  Turkey does seem intent on mimicing Russia, not aligning totally with the USA, or the EU or China, but balancing between them all and using their soft and cultural power to bolster regional influence, especially in Central Asia and Azerbaijan.  Between their military power, their linguistic heritage, their economy and their system of government, they've got a lot to offer a lot of people. 

GA, as for Iran, it'll probably help them draw militarily closer, though I've suspected for a while that Turkey may be a conduit for weapons technology to Iran from Israel anyway (Israeli politicians do a lot of double-dealing when it comes to Iran, always have.  One of the richest Israeli businessmen was recently investigated for illegal trade with Iran - he backs more than a couple of political parties, and has a former head of Mossad on his board of directors).  Turkey and Iran's main shared interest is in the Kurdish rebels - the PKK do seem to have reformed in recent years and are stepping up attacks along the border region.  Another possible interest could be the nuclear trade as well - the FBI translator, Sibel Edmonds, alleged Turkish intelligence officials formed part of the illegal nuclear network that included A.Q. Khan, and we know Khan sold technology to Iran.

But for the most part, I don't see Turkey changing its policy towards Iran too much, unless Israel does something stupid, like provide arms to the PKK.  Same for Egypt - Turkey recently undertook constitutional changes to reform their military and curb their political power, and so probably look at Egypt as a kind of less developed version of themselves.  They've been cautiously in favour of the Arab Spring (they cannot afford to alienate their nearby neighbours, but at the same time all these military dictatorships are, frankly, embarassing, and part of Turkey's popularity is that it shows Islam and democracy can work together), in fact, this morning Erdogan has announced visits to Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

In theory, I suppose Egypt and Turkey, as the two major regional military powers, could cooperate and try to contain Israel.  But I'd suspect the Egyptian commitment to any such bargain - the military is still is control there, and they ultimately defer to the United States in such matters.  Then again, a lot of the younger Egyptian officers were trained in America, including in things like human rights and the laws of war.  They may not be keen on Israel for the same reasons most other people aren't - their contemptous flouting of international law at every given opportunity and their short-sighted destabilization of the region.

[Cain]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MI14Ak01.html

While it seems clear that Egypt is sliding towards anarchy, many questions remain about who is responsible for the drama at the Israeli Embassy in Cairo last Friday, an incident that very nearly turned into the lynching of six Israeli security guards and a diplomatic scandal on par with the hostage crisis at the United States Embassy in Iran in 1979.

To add to the suspense, the visit of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Egypt, which began on Monday, is stirring a lot of speculation. Israel's main Muslim partners, now estranged, are ostensibly conspiring on their own. Yet this superficial impression, bolstered by Erdogan's angry anti-Israeli rhetoric, yields only additional question marks.

Turkey and Egypt are bitter rivals for influence in the Muslim world; if anything dramatic comes out of Erdogan's visit, it is more likely to be born in contention than in collusion.

Though both Israel and Egypt tried to downplay it, the incident on Friday very nearly turned into a disaster, and is likely to rattle their already strained relationship in a major way. Reports have it that Cairo had warned Jerusalem in advance about the danger of a mob attack. [1]

The diplomats were safely whisked out to the airport, where they boarded a plane back home, but less fortunate were six Israeli security guards who remained stranded in the embassy as angry mobs broke inside. They were finally rescued by Egyptian special forces, who smuggled them out of the embassy dressed in traditional Arab garb and headwear.

"Several hours into the mass protest in Cairo, the mob succeeded in breaking two of the three doors that led to the security room at the embassy," a report in the Israeli news site Ynet reads. "When the mob reached the final door, the guards could hear the noises from outside as well as loud bangs on the door ... Using every object they could find, the guards built barriers near the door in the hopes of preventing intrusion." [2]

Though Israeli officials claimed that the media exaggerated the danger to the lives of the guards, it is clear that the situation had the potential to turn into a disaster. Apparently, for a long period in the beginning of the standoff, Egypt's de facto ruler, Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi, who heads the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), mysteriously could not be located to answer the calls of Israeli and American officials. The forceful American reaction and the massive pressure the Barack Obama administration brought to bear on Egypt were arguably decisive in arranging the rescue of the guards. [3]

He's not underestimating Egypt's "slide into anarchy" either.

Egypt has to import half of all its food.  Problem: their economy is in tatters from the revolution.  Lots of unemployed former police officers are stirring up trouble, the Muslim Brotherhood is stirring up trouble and the Army may be stirring up trouble to extort money from Israel and America, both of which are not exactly in excellent economic condition right now, with domestic audiences likely to view any such aid negatively.

[deadfong]

Egypt has to import half of all its food. 

Don't mean to derail, but this bit surprised me, since Egypt was the bread-basket of the Roman Empire.

I realize a lot of time has passed between then and now, and I probably shouldn't be surprised, but still.

[Cain]

Anwar Dam screwed up the Nile's tides, which screwed up farming.

Also, the Roman Empire's population could've been anywhere between 40 and 120 million.  Durand's research in 1977 suggests that during the reign of Augustus, the population of the entire empire was about 55 million.  Egypt's current population is 80 million.  So, if we assume Egypt produced a majority of Roman food, let's say 75%, that still means it only produced enough for 40 million or so.

Which fits rather nicely with the import data, actually.

But yeah, I'm sure they could produce more, if the Dam were smashed and they imported more modern practices to the region.

[deadfong]

Ah, thanks for that.  I did wonder what kind of effect damming the Nile might have had.  Also, I imagine quite a bit more water is being drawn off upstream now than in classical antiquity.