Odds on a war with Iran before 2013?

[inode_buddha]

Just to toss some fuel on the fire:

http://yro.slashdot.org/story/12/04/22/1627259/iranian-military-says-its-copying-us-drone

Quote:

"Iran's military has started to build a copy of a U.S. surveillance drone captured last year after breaking the software encryption, Iranian media reported on Sunday. General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the Revolutionary Guards aerospace division, said engineers were in the final stages of decoding data from the Sentinel aircraft...

Pretty sure this is *really* irritating to a few ppl near Washington. Much like a small pebble in one's shoe, whilst on a marathon. Even in a hobbled state at the national level, Irans Eng/Sci abilities can be embarrassing for the US.

[Placid Dingo]

I heard the other night, Geoffrey Robertson QC talking about the need for progress with Iran on the grounds that there are dangerous extreme Islamic elements in the government who would like to engage in literally apocalyptic warfare to bring on Armageddon.

Thoughts?

[Cain]

That seems to be overstating the case somewhat.

There probably are such extremists, sure, but the Iranian government's foreign policy, especially since the late 80s, has been marked by an extreme amount of pragmatism - to the point of being willing to covertly co-operate with Israel (against Iraq) and with the USA (against the Taliban).  These are not the actions of a government controlled by messianic lunatics, dreaming of the Apocalypse.

[Cain]

http://rt.com/usa/obama-israel-military-june-503/

President Barack Obama says the United States could launch an attack on Iran as early as this June, Israeli media reports.

According to a report on Israel's Channel 10 News that has since been picked up by the Times of Israel, Pres. Obama will use an upcoming meeting overseas to discuss a military strike on Iran. Pres. Obama is scheduled to visit Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu next month, and during the get-together the two leaders will reportedly work out the details for a possible assault.

Pres. Obama will tell Netanyahu that a "window of opportunity" for a military strike on Iran will open in June, Channel 10 claims.

Israel has long-urged the White House to use its military prowess to intervene in Iran's rumored nuclear weapon procurement plan, demands which have by-and-large been rejected by the Obama administration. According to the latest reports, though, the United States might finally be willing to use its might to make a stand against Iran's race for a nuke.

[LMNO]

So, what happened with that report on the previous page from last year that suggested the Iranian gvt really doesn't want nukes?  Or is this an Israeli COINTEL maneuver?

[deadfong]

Yeah, this is really strange.  I haven't been following the situation very closely recently, but it seems like a complete reversal of policy.

The choice of June seems odd, too.  Another article suggested it's because Iran has elections in June, and the country is divided internally between the ayatollahs and folks who want out from under the thumb of the ayatollahs, that this is somehow the perfect time to strike?  I would think that would instead unify the whole country against us, rather than lead to chaos and/or some sort of regime change.

I just don't get this at all.