Ain't It Awful?

[Doktor Howl]

I'm gonna go with "that's what I meant to say," whether or not that's really true.

Same here.

[Cain]

As far as I'm aware, the embrace of preventative war has never actually been removed from US security planning (it was introduced in the 2002 National Security Statement, one of the most odious documents in the history of humanity).

I suspect some of this is driving the current US thinking on Iran, that Iran is essentially sitting on a choke-point and is unfriendly to the US (though not as unfriendly as some people would have you believe) and in the future it could, as part of a dispute with the USA or Israel, use military power to shut down the Straits and force an outcome it prefers.

Personally, though, I don't see it happening, not unless the US is also involved in such an attack.  Blockading it will definitely merit a US response, regardless of how in/effective the blockade actually is, and despite Iranian planning for a conflict in the Straits, a far superior plan would be to not have the US involved at all. 

This is why I feel kinda sorry for Obama: he's stuck in a hell of a situation.  The Israelis and Saudis are doing everything in their power to force a US attack, the Iranians are sniping and responding at both, and no matter what the US does, there is going to be awful political fallout, whether it's President Romney or an economic crash.

[navkat]

We are sooooo fucked.