Mali coup and insurgency

[Doktor Howl]

Hey, Cain:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Mali_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat

[Cain]

Yeah, saw it earlier today, was looking for the Libya thread to post it.

Well, that puts the moral calculus for the war even more firmly in the grey than it already was.  Mali was a democratic government...although, as always, you can argue "how democratic" when it comes to Africa, it was definitely cut from a different cloth than the likes of, well, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and so on.

And now they've got a military junta in charge and a raging insurgency of battle-hardened and Libyan-trained Tuaregs to contend with.

This is why I am generally opposed to intervention: dangerously unforeseen outcomes.  You can bet when all the Libyan experts were being called to testify in Congress or being called by the FCO, no-one bothered to get experts in on the states around Libya.  Everyone was focused on instability spreading north, not south.

And what happens if the violence in Mali gets worse?  The Tuaregs also have territorial claims in Niger they want to push.  Burkino Faso is directly south of that claimed territory, and Benin isn't in a much better position, either.

It's also worth noting the traditional political economy of the Tuareg people is reliant on slavery.  If, somehow, they were to force territorial concessions on either state, you'd have the very real possibility of a resource-poor but militaristic slaver state being born in an already unstable region of Africa.

[Doktor Howl]

This is why I am generally opposed to intervention: dangerously unforeseen outcomes.  You can bet when all the Libyan experts were being called to testify in Congress or being called by the FCO, no-one bothered to get experts in on the states around Libya.  Everyone was focused on instability spreading north, not south.

Yep.  But in traditional American style, what do you want to bet the Kuny2012 thing that just imploded will be replaced with this, as the next Really Important Cause?

[Cain]

I actually think everyone is still focused on Syria, right now.

The New Republic just had a piece up comparing them to the KLA.  It was meant to be a pro-intervention piece, so they misunderstood both what the KLA were and what the Syrian Free Army are.  But surprisingly few people are debunking it.  Syria also works into the whole Iran thing.

Mali...well, Mali was increasingly pro-Western, but no-one really actually cared about it.  It's major export is food, to other African states (that's a point, look for food riots in Senegal in the near future).  And Tuaregs killing Malians, who are mostly Muslim, won't get the religious NGOs, who are almost uniformly evangelical Christian, worked up much.

The UK might try and get involved, though.  The UK has typically good working relations with ECOWAS, who are probably not happy with the whole situation.  Might be time for William Hague to put the bottle back in the bottom drawer and start combing the internet for Churchill quotes.

[Cain]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mali-tuaregs-20120404,0,5399355.story

It took just a few months of combat for Tuareg rebels in Mali, battle-hardened by their time fighting for Libya's late leader Moammar Kadafi, to achieve a century-old dream: conquering a huge swath of northern Mali that they see as their homeland.

Even if the rebels never win international recognition, their battlefield successes have in effect partitioned the West African nation. Neither the country's new military junta nor leaders of neighboring nations appear capable of overturning the recent gains by the rebels, analysts say.

If Mali's neighbors do send troops into the north, one of the harshest environments on Earth, it could spark more chaos in the region, Keenan said. Tuaregs also reside in Niger, Algeria and Libya.

"It could spread into a regional conflagration," he said. "The Tuaregs would see it as a race war. You might get Tuaregs from other countries coming across to join the fight."

A West African force "would probably get humiliated against the Tuaregs, who are very hardened and seasoned fighters.... They're happy to die for it," Keenan said, referring to Azawad independence.

http://www.npr.org/2012/04/04/149985662/malis-rebellion-stirs-fear-of-wider-saharan-conflict

The disintegration of Mali could further destabilize a fragile region that is already simmering with political unrest, crime and religious fundamentalism.

It also raises the prospect that the Tuareg rebellion in Mali could spark similar uprisings in other countries that have big concentrations of Tuaregs, including Niger, Algeria and Libya.

Jeremy Keenan says the stakes are high, not only for the countries in the region, but for the United States and European countries.

The U.S. State Department calls Mali "a leading regional partner in U.S. efforts against terrorism," and the U.S. has donated equipment to the Malian army under a program called the Trans-Sahara Counter Terrorism Partnership.

But Keenan charges that the terrorism threat was hyped by U.S. officials who wanted an excuse to build a presence in Africa.

He calls U.S. policy in the region "staggeringly uninformed," and says any U.S. intervention in Mali now would provoke a backlash.

So that worked out well.

[Doktor Howl]

Another glittering moment for US nation-building.

[Cain]

It gets even better.  Not only content with empowering Islamist groups in Libya, NATO's ill-considered intervention has empowered Islamists in Mali too

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/pothot/articles/20120403.aspx

Apparently deals were made to make life easier for the terrorists and gangsters if the Tuareg gained control of the north. Already, the al Qaeda gunmen are going around shutting down places that sell alcohol or video and telling people they must act like "proper" Moslems

These ethnic differences are complicated by Tuareg participation in smuggling cocaine and hashish north, through Algeria, to Europe. The drug smuggling is actually handled by Arab gangsters that are not terrorists. Al Qaeda gets paid lots of money to provide security for the drugs as they make the long run through forests, then the Sahara. The Tuareg provide local knowledge of the terrain, and people, at least in the far south. The Algerian government is afraid that the Tuareg will be tempted, by a big payday, to provide sanctuary for al Qaeda, as well as providing new recruits for Islamic terrorist operations (especially those that raise a lot of cash, like kidnapping Westerners). While the Tuareg are not fond of Islamic terrorism, young Tuareg are allowed to work with al Qaeda as hired guns. The pay is good and, so far, not too dangerous. But the young Tuareg are picking up some radical ideas from their al Qaeda bosses and that is causing some tension with tribal leaders. The mere fact that Tuareg are working for al Qaeda in southern Algeria has angered Algerian officials. Most of the 1.5 million Tuareg in the region are living in nations bordering Algeria (Burkina Faso, Libya, Mali, and Niger).

The author does note:

This sort of thing is not popular among the Tuareg and may cause friction with the mainline Tuareg (who might still rebel against the rebels).

but that is hardly reassuring.

[Cain]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1193279/1/.html

A Tuareg rebel group in northern Mali on Wednesday announced an end to its military operations in the area.

"After the complete liberation of the Azawad territory and given the strong request by the international community", the Tuareg separatist group Azawad National Liberation Movement (MNLA) "decides unilaterally to declare the end of military operations from midnight Thursday", it said in a statement.

The statement was published on the movement's website and signed in the northern town of Gao by its secretary general, Bilal Ag Acherif.

The MNLA called on countries in the region and the international community to "make sure that the Azawad people will (live) free from any Mali attacks".

In the wake of a coup that ousted president Amani Toumani Toure on March 22, Tuareg rebels and Islamist groups took control at the end of last week of the key northern towns of Kidal, Gao and Timbuktu, cutting the country in two.

The BBC provides a map