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FAO, CAIN: The Germans don't even TRY to hide it, anymore.

Started by The Good Reverend Roger, March 18, 2013, 08:19:46 PM

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The Good Reverend Roger

" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

Cain

Hah, yes.

Was going to be digging more into this, when I have a clear head tomorrow, but my initial impressions are: are the Germans TRYING to cause a run on peripheral European banks?  Because that is what this policy will do.

The Good Reverend Roger

Quote from: Cain on March 18, 2013, 08:32:47 PM
Hah, yes.

Was going to be digging more into this, when I have a clear head tomorrow, but my initial impressions are: are the Germans TRYING to cause a run on peripheral European banks?  Because that is what this policy will do.

Yep.  It HAS to be deliberate.

"Hey, guys, we're going to take 10% of the contents of your bank accounts.  Nobody panic."

And then they closed the banks.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

Cain

Also pisses off the Russians, who do a lot of money-laundering in Cyprus.

Eurocrats are digging their heels in, and saying it's their way or the highway.  Which in this case, is the Systemic Banking Failure Highway.  But, apparently, the European Commission was backed into a corner by the IMF, in concert with the Finnish and Dutch governments.

The Good Reverend Roger

Quote from: Cain on March 18, 2013, 09:07:02 PM
Also pisses off the Russians, who do a lot of money-laundering in Cyprus.

Eurocrats are digging their heels in, and saying it's their way or the highway.  Which in this case, is the Systemic Banking Failure Highway.  But, apparently, the European Commission was backed into a corner by the IMF, in concert with the Finnish and Dutch governments.

This is sort of like watching someone point a gun at their own junk, yelling "COME ANY CLOSER AND JIMMY GETS IT!"

I approve of this fiscal armageddon.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

Faust

I'm withdrawing my savings tomorrow. Not because I fear they will rape taxed in the short term, but if Ireland was to need another bailout somewhere down the line it could happen then. I will be finding alternative places to squirrel it away such as gold or a bank account outside of the Euro zone.

Comedy option:
I'll put it all in bitcoin.
Sleepless nights at the chateau

Cain

So, the first thing that should be mentioned I suppose, is that there is a German election in September.  Given how unpopular the Greek loans were, one can see there is a short time political aspect to how the German government is approaching this crisis.  To build on the above example, Germany may shoot it's own junk off, but Merkel remains in charge of a junkless Germany.

And when we get right down to the nitty gritty, it's my belief that most politicians would agree with Milton's Satan about ruling in hell as opposed to serving in heaven.

Interestingly, this builds on measures that were put in place in Greece, where sovereign and and bank bond holders were taxed, but were at the time described as a one-off measure.

In the long term, this will cause European banks significant issues in trying to raise money, as people justifiably fear their meagre savings being taxed.  In other words, this makes future bail-outs, especially in the European periphery more likely.  It also raises questions about the range of options the ECB is willing to employ, and thus the overall financial credibility of the Eurozone. 

And, to top all this off, the Cypriot government still has yet to vote on the measures, and the new government there may not be able to pass them.  If they cannot, expect a financial collapse in Cyprus.  It was my understanding that, when negotiating, PM Nicos Anastasiades arranged for certain provisions to protect small depositers, and was given a number of reassurances along that line, but somewhere in all the wheeling and dealing, the Germans reneged on their promise.  Whatever happens, I am fairly sure the Germans have made yet another nation their enemy.

LMNO

Quote from: Faust on March 18, 2013, 10:54:10 PM
I'm withdrawing my savings tomorrow. Not because I fear they will rape taxed in the short term, but if Ireland was to need another bailout somewhere down the line it could happen then. I will be finding alternative places to squirrel it away such as gold or a bank account outside of the Euro zone.

Comedy option:
I'll put it all in bitcoin.

LAIL.

Cain

Rumour is suggesting that the German plan is to reduce the size of the Cypriot banking industry.  The more benevolent explanation is that this is to reduce it to the Eurozone average...the less benevolent explanation is to allow their own banks to pick up on lost Cypriot business.

LMNO

Considering that business is Russian money laundering, does Germany want that kind of business?

To be clear, I only have knowlege of the US financial rules, where money laundering can put you in extremely deep shit.

Cain

When you're not HSBC, or Wells Fargo, or...

Also, remember what all the banks have been after since 2008?  That sweet, sweet drug money...they'll launder it for organized crime, and it keeps them capitalized.  It's been strongly suggested that drug money was the only thing that prevented several large banks from collpasing in the wake of the credit crisis.

Cain

Quote from: Reuters"The feeling I'm having is that the house is going to reject the bill," President Nicos Anastasiades told reporters. Asked why, he added: "Because they feel and they think that it is unjust and it's against the interests of Cyprus at large."

Asked what he would do next, he said: "We have our own plans."

Uh huh.  Your finance minister seems to disagree, which is why he apparently tried to quit his job today.

Cain

Quote from: Cain on March 19, 2013, 01:17:08 PM
When you're not HSBC, or Wells Fargo, or...

Also, remember what all the banks have been after since 2008?  That sweet, sweet drug money...they'll launder it for organized crime, and it keeps them capitalized.  It's been strongly suggested that drug money was the only thing that prevented several large banks from collpasing in the wake of the credit crisis.

Just to back up my claims

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/dec/13/drug-money-banks-saved-un-cfief-claims

QuoteDrugs money worth billions of dollars kept the financial system afloat at the height of the global crisis, the United Nations' drugs and crime tsar has told the Observer.

Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.

LMNO


Cain

Puts the whole "we can't prosecute HSBC for laundering billions in drugs money" in a whole new light, doesn't it?