Syria reported to have use Chemical Warfare

[LMNO]

Ditto.

[Junkenstein]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28082962

The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis) announced the establishment of the caliphate in an audio recording posted on the internet on Sunday.

Little more than an update covering the latest events. What caught my eye was that "audio recording" bit. With Baghdadi being a ghost, I bet that recording is getting a lot of scrutiny. It'll be worth watching to see what kind of impact this has and for future announcements.

[Cain]

Unfortunately, almost all the US military and State Department Arabic speakers were sacked during the Bush years for being gay and/or "politically unreliable" because they could speak Arabic.

Consider: more than 58 Arabic linguists have been kicked out since "don't ask, don't tell" was instituted. How much valuable intelligence could those men and women be providing today to troops in harm's way?

In addition to those translators, 11,000 other service members have been ousted since the "don't ask, don't tell" policy was passed by Congress in 1993. Many held critical jobs in intelligence, medicine and counterterrorism. An untold number of closeted gay military members don't re-enlist because of the pressure the law puts on them. This is the real cost of the ban — and, with our military so overcommitted and undermanned, it's too high to pay.

[Junkenstein]

Of course, anyone who can speak foreignese must be suspected.

What was that about Kurdistan?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28103124

The president of Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan Region has told the BBC he intends to hold a referendum on independence within months.

Massoud Barzani said that Iraq was already "effectively partitioned".

While the Kurds would play a part in a political solution to the crisis caused by jihadist-led Sunni Arab rebellion, independence was their right, he added.

Something about somewhere not going to be handed back? You're betting on this shit, right? Because if not, you need to start.

In the past month, Kurdish Peshmerga fighters have moved into previously disputed areas that have been abandoned by Iraqi security forces in the face of Isis's advance, such as the oil-rich region of Kirkuk.

"Everything that's happened recently shows that it's the right of Kurdistan to achieve independence," Mr Barzani told the BBC.

"From now on, we won't hide that that's our goal. Iraq is effectively partitioned now. Are we supposed to stay in this tragic situation the country's living? It's not me who will decide on independence. It's the people. We'll hold a referendum and it's a matter of months."

I assume I don't need psychic powers to guess how that referendum is likely to go.

[Cain]

Heh, we were wargaming this scenario back in 2006.  Did a nice little exercise with Georgetown....our scenario was slightly different, however.

We assumed an effective partition of Iraq, but placed it in the context of an Iranian nuclear scenario.  America attempted to shut down the program via covert action, which led Iran to covertly support AQI in addition to Shiite militias, the former set off dirty bombs, Iraq got partitioned and Iran emerged as the pre-eminent military power in the Middle East, even as the UNSC passed a motion to authorise military force in the event Iran did not suspend its nuclear program.

Needless to say, it was a depressing exercise.  We didn't have a context for the Arab Spring, or Iran suspending its program, but the partition of Iraq was uncanny.

[Junkenstein]

Quick aside, is the use of a dirty bomb something that should be seriously considered? I seem to recall that they are relatively quick and easy to make which makes me wonder why one hasn't been used yet. I also seem to recall something about Russia making a variety of suitcase bombs of which a number went "missing". Can't help but think that the longer it goes without the use of one, the more likely one is to eventually be used.

Ah, I'm not mad/senile:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suitcase_nuke

The highest-ranking GRU defector Stanislav Lunev claimed that such Russian-made devices do exist and described them in more detail.[6] These devices, "identified as RA-115s (or RA-115-01s for submersible weapons)" weigh from fifty to sixty pounds. They can last for many years if wired to an electric source. In case there is a loss of power, there is a battery backup. If the battery runs low, the weapon has a transmitter that sends a coded message—either by satellite or directly to a GRU post at a Russian embassy or consulate." According to Lunev, the number of "missing" nuclear devices (as found by General Lebed) "is almost identical to the number of strategic targets upon which those bombs would be used."[6]

I'm wondering as there's plenty of groups now involved with backers that would be able (and probably somewhat willing) to supply the required materials, for assurances that it'll be used on the right group of heathens. Again, I recall something about a crude dirty bomb basically able to render an area the size of Manhattan as a death zone for 20,000 years or so. There's surely substantial financial benefit to having say, X countries oil fields inaccessible.

Hmm. Really unrelated now, but:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb#Possibility_of_terrorist_groups_using_dirty_bombs

The first attempt of radiological terror was carried out in November 1995 by a group of Chechen separatists, who buried a caesium-137 source wrapped in explosives at the Izmaylovsky Park in Moscow. A Chechen rebel leader alerted the media, the bomb was never activated, and the incident amounted to a mere publicity stunt.[7]

In December 1998, a second attempt was announced by the Chechen Security Service, who discovered a container filled with radioactive materials attached to an explosive mine. The bomb was hidden near a railway line in the suburban area Argun, ten miles east of the Chechen capital of Grozny. The same Chechen separatist group was suspected to be involved

While I'm asking, how long has Bandar been fucking about with the Chechens? Mid 90's seems to make a lot of sense.

[Cain]

In this situation?  Probably not.  ISIS are bent on conquest, which means taking and holding territory which is not irradiated.  As a general terrorist attack outside of that, I'd still rate it fairly low.

I do have worries that former Syrian nuclear tech, which was situated in the region that is now part of the Caliphate, may have fallen into ISIS hands. But there's no word on exactly how credible a risk that is, since the Syrians deny the existence of such a program and the Israelis are keeping their mouths shut on the location of the facilities they attacked.

Don't know about Bandar and the Chechens, he was, IIRC, still ambassador in DC at the time.  Which doesn't rule it out, but may have meant he was more hands off.  We do know that Zawahiri had contact with the Chechens since the mid-1990s, he was picked up by Russian intelligence in 1996 and subsequently let go.

Various Italian crime syndicates have tried to sell nuclear material before now.  Fortunately SISMI has recognised this is somewhat more serious than the usual drugs and guns and illegal immigrants the Mafia normally runs, and has shut down said attempts.  But then SISMI has it's own dark past, so perhaps we should double check where all that nuclear material went.

[Junkenstein]

Thanks for that, a realistic assessment of threat/risk is always appreciated.

Anyway, the latest:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28142802

raqi military officials have denied that troops have abandoned positions along the border with Saudi Arabia.

Interior ministry spokesman Brig Gen Saad Maan told the BBC that the border force was functioning normally.

Earlier, al-Arabiya TV reported that Saudi Arabia had deployed 30,000 soldiers along the 900km (560-mile) frontier after Iraqi forces withdrew.

The Saudi personnel were fanning out along the border to prevent attacks by jihadist-led Sunni rebels, it said.

Last week, King Abdullah ordered all necessary measures to be taken to protect Saudi Arabia against "terrorist threats".

Mainly posting this as that line alone is hilarious in more ways than I can count.

[Junkenstein]

Daily development:
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/07/05/ISIS-allegedly-issues-caliphate-passport.html

Militant members and sympathizers of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have circulated pictures of what they said was the passport of the so-called "caliphate" declared last week by the militant group.

The "State of the Islamic Caliphate" appears to be inscribed at the top of the purported passport. At the bottom, it says: "The holder of the passport if harmed we will deploy armies for his service."

ISIS reportedly said the new document will be distributed to 11,000 citizens living in cities bordering Iraq and Syria.

The militant group, which operates in both Iraq and Syria, said their caliphate would spread from Aleppo in northern Syria to Diyala in eastern Iraq.

The passport is reportedly being printed in a government facility in Mosul that was built in 2011.

Last week, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi called on Muslims with military, medical and managerial skills to flock to its newly-declared pan-Islamic state, in an audio recording.

"Those who can immigrate to the Islamic State should immigrate, as immigration to the house of Islam is a duty," said Baghdadi.

The newly named "caliph" said the appeal especially applied to "judges and those who have military and managerial and service skills, and doctors and engineers in all fields."

I'm unsure about how much of this is propaganda (for/against any involved faction) but if anything close to true, it seems like a major step towards building an apparently functioning nation/caliphate.

[Cain]

Well, al-Arabiyah is a Saudi-affiliated network.  Not that this means anything in this particular case, as I fail to see the propaganda value to the House of Saud in such a story.

In other news, appears I was wrong about al-Baghdadi.  He appeared in a video last week.  Same guy as 2009, as far as I can see.

[Junkenstein]

That "as far as you can see" qualifier is important. I've been digging into the use of body doubles in the region and in general and I would be somewhat surprised if he doesn't have a least one kicking around.

What was the jist of the 2009 appearance? Anything related to the ongoing clusterfuck?

[Junkenstein]

Today brings little good:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28240140

raq has warned the UN that Sunni militants have seized nuclear materials used for scientific research at a university in the city of Mosul.

In a letter seen by Reuters, Iraq's envoy to the UN said nearly 40kg (88lb) of uranium compounds were seized.

The letter appealed for international help to "stave off the threat of their use by terrorists in Iraq or abroad".

US officials reportedly played down the threat, saying the materials were not believed to be enriched uranium.

The officials added that it would be difficult for the rebels to use the materials to make weapons.

Yeah, strapping explosives to nuclear material is quite the fucking challenge.

The letter comes a day after Iraqi officials confirmed that the rebels were in control of a disused chemical weapons factory.

Shit's just getting better and better.

The UN has said at least 2,417 Iraqis, including 1,531 civilians, were killed in "acts of violence and terrorism" in June.

I'm unsure about how much relative truth/bullshit there is here, but I would say it's somewhat worrying at the least. Unfortunately the WMD bullshit of previous years clouds the issue here substantially.

If you're not seeing a long clusterfuck lasting several years (decades) in formation here, I'd like to know why.

[Junkenstein]

Not strictly related to anything, but a decent enough article showing some of the destruction of Syria's historical sites.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28191181

While the pictures are the main story here, this is worth noting:

While Iraq benefited from a UN resolution banning trade in its antiquities after the US invasion of 2003, Syria has been given no such protection. Unesco can only function inside Syria with the permission of the Syrian regime - a permission which has not been forthcoming.

My read on that is that if it can be carted away and sold to someone, it's probably happening. A lot. The question is who's doing the buying and selling.

[Junkenstein]

Hearing rumours that ISIS have started offensives against the Kurds.

That's not exactly a smart move, if true.

[Cain]

No...and yes.

Kurds will form the pivotal role in any counter-attack, they have good links with the UK, USA and Russia.  Better to attack them now than let them attack at a time and place of their choosing.

On the other hand, the Peshmerga wont simply roll over and die like the Iraqi Army did, no.