Syria reported to have use Chemical Warfare

[Junkenstein]

Hmm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27801676

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), has been careful to reveal little about himself and his whereabouts.

There are only two authenticated photos of him, and unlike al-Qaeda leaders such as Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, he does not appear in video messages.

Even his own fighters reportedly do not speak about seeing him face to face.

But Baghdadi has a reputation as a highly organised and ruthless battlefield tactician, which analysts say makes his organisation more attractive to young jihadists than that of Zawahiri, an Islamic theologian.

Short profile on the apparent ISIS leader. I wonder which 3 letter agency was responsible for his training? I've not dug into the various names associated with ISIS in too much detail yet but I'm assuming there to be the usual shady links with, well, everyone.

[Cain]

al-Baghdadi doesn't exist.

Or rather, he did at one point, but he's a useful nom de guerre for whoever actually runs ISIS.  Given ISIS has been disavowed by Al-Qaeda, the Islamic Front and pretty much everyone else in Jihadi-Town in addition to being targeted by several states, not using the name on your passport is a good idea.  al-Baghdadi himself, reportedly, wears a mask whenever meeting with anyone, which strongly suggests an actor or mouthpiece for someone else.

As for the intelligence agencies...ISIS has several former Baathist intelligence and military officers high within its ranks. 

[Junkenstein]

Ah.

Thanks again.

Al-Baghdadi being an assumed ID is more interesting. Would this not impact operational effectiveness at a certain point? When your credentials are "I'm wearing a mask" then surely there's loads of room for abuse. I suppose the question really is more about which particular interests ISIS  are apparently representing in the longer term.

[Cain]

Sure, depending on who is in the inner circle and the methods of authentication used.  Presumably, the high up commanders, the "inner circle" of ISIS would be privy to the secret, if this is in fact the case.  Chances are you can only approach "al-Baghdadi" with the express permission of these men.

That would of course require a tight-knit leadership who trust and can work together...but given the military nature of ISIS and their successes, I think we can safely assume this is true.

[UB]

Its fascinating to watch the spin that ISIS brings. Im sure it was of no surprise to realize the links between baathists and ISIS.

[Junkenstein]

Sure, depending on who is in the inner circle and the methods of authentication used.  Presumably, the high up commanders, the "inner circle" of ISIS would be privy to the secret, if this is in fact the case.  Chances are you can only approach "al-Baghdadi" with the express permission of these men.

That would of course require a tight-knit leadership who trust and can work together...but given the military nature of ISIS and their successes, I think we can safely assume this is true.

Chances of these men essentially taking it in turns to be Baghdadi? I'd guess reasonable.

[Cain]

It's possible.  In their position, however, I'd have a council running things in ISIS, and whoever runs al-Baghdadi would be an actor behind a mask, with reliable, quiet bodyguards loyal to the council.

After all, if you're going to use a decoy, it's best not to play the part of the decoy even part time.  US drones could be deployed to snuff such a high value target out on the smallest scrap of available intelligence.  The Islamic Front wouldn't hesitate to put a car bomb alongside a suspected safe house.  The IRGC Quds Force has some talent at assassination, and have three battalions operating in Iraq currently.

[Junkenstein]

I see.

While we're on the theoretical side of things, say there is a council of sorts running ISIS, how would you expect that they communicate? I'd assume having them all in the one place is a no-no because of the security risk and single bomb issue and I can't reasonable trust anything electronic.

Replaceable(read: disposable)/one time couriers mixed with one-time pads? That may do it but if so surely it would indicate that the whole thing has been being planned for a significant length of time?

[Cain]

You might be surprised how effective couriers and short-distance radio can be.  General Van Riper used those to effectively communicate on a tactical level during the Millennium Challenge 2002 war games.

And yes, the current offensive has been at least six months in the planning.  While I'm not a fan of some of the people who work for the Institute of the Study of War, their reports were making clear in December that ISIS was preparing to move on Mosul at some future point.

Here's a report from the ISW in late January:

The city of Mosul has witnessed an increased effort by extremist groups, likely al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) but possibly the Ba'athist group Jaysh Rijal al-Tariqah al-Naqshabandia (JRTN), to seize control of the city. Reporting from Mosul is severely limited at this time, not because violence has been reduced, but instead because journalists were targeted in late 2013, effectively placing the city under a media blackout. A campaign of intimidation is underway, suppressing reporting and masking all but the most spectacular attacks. Attacks upon local government figures and Mosul University students indicate that security conditions in the city center are very dangerous at this time. ISF operations in Anbar do not reduce threats to other urban capitals in Iraq, especially Mosul, where the militant organizations AQI and JRTN have both been active.

[...]

These incidents are indicators that AQI or JRTN may be establishing control of neighborhoods within Mosul. They are also grave signs that the Iraqi Security Forces do not control the city. While all eyes are focused on Anbar, it is essential to observe warning signs of AQI's next campaign objective, which elements of AQI outside of Anbar have a prime opportunity to pursue. If these incidents are indeed perpetrated by AQI, we can discern that its campaign objectives lie beyond controlling Fallujah, and indeed that the organization has scoped a wider path to restoring an Islamic state in Iraq.

The Kurdish Autonomous Region also warned of a planned ISIS offensive against Mosul six months ago.  However, Maliki was too busy working on securing a political mandate for his reworking of the Iraqi political scene (to cement his own personal leadership) to pay attention.

[Junkenstein]

You might be surprised how effective couriers and short-distance radio can be.  General Van Riper used those to effectively communicate on a tactical level during the Millennium Challenge 2002 war games.

I'm going to have to have a look at that. Still, I'd be wary about using them for any kind of extended duration of time. I've got a feeling that that they've chosen will largely determine their success, particularly as things develop on multiple fronts. I can't help but think about Mexican cartels and their select kidnapping of comms engineers. I'm sure ISIS or affiliates/subsidiaries have had the same thoughts and opportunities.

I'm also guessing that Maliki's card is firmly marked and he's not likely to be in any position of power in the near-mid future.

[Cain]

Syria is carrying out airstrikes on ISIS frontline positions in Iraq.

1) So much for the "ISIS and Assad sitting in a tree" conspiracy theorists
2) US policy for the region is fucked, when its ally is being saved by a state it is trying hard to destroy

[Junkenstein]

US policy in the region is fucked you say?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28042309

President Barack Obama has asked the US Congress to approve $500m (£294m) to train and equip what he described as "moderate" Syrian opposition forces.

The funds would help Syrians defend against forces aligned with President Bashar al-Assad, the White House said.

The aid would also counter Islamist militants such as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Isis), it added.

"This funding request would build on the administration's longstanding efforts to empower the moderate Syrian opposition, both civilian and armed," the White House said.

It will also "enable the Department of Defense to increase our support to vetted elements of the armed opposition".

The money will help stabilise areas under opposition control and counter terrorist threats, the White House said.

The rebels that would receive the funds would be vetted beforehand in order to alleviate concerns of equipment falling into the hands of militants hostile to the US and its allies, the White House said.

Something of an understatement.

[Cain]

Ah yes, the "moderate" opposition.  Defined as "anyone but ISIS" which includes the Al-Qaeda designated in country affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and the other merry jihadists of the Islamic Front.

Incidentally, the al-Nusra branch in Albu Kamal has sworn alleigance to ISIS.  No news on whether this is part of a larger merger or not.

Edit: either way, it looks like Obama has decided the best way to defeat an insanely rich terrorist group is to create another insanely rich terrorist group.  I see no way in which this could result in serious blowback.

[Cain]

Three Albanians have been arrested in Kosovo on charges of terrorism recruitment for ISIS.

[Telarus]

Thanks for keeping up on this, I find it a great counterpoint to the other media.