Author Topic: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?  (Read 29736 times)

Reginald Ret

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #60 on: February 21, 2014, 11:13:53 pm »
And fuck all works against snipers.

dense smoke screens...

Feeling lucky?

well, the fuck else are you really gonna do?
you COULD go try to send guys to occupy all of the decent/likely sniper spots in the area...but that'd imply you have the man power AND know what those spots would be (i.e. you have someone with you who's trained in sniper tactics)
You could also engage in counter-sniping...but again, this requires someone well-versed in sniper tactics.

so yeah, I'd say that if you're really on about whatever it is your band of people are doing, burn some tires and run like fuck and use cover/concealment when you're in more open areas...

sucks, but it is what it is...
It seems your tactics always include escalation of violence. Might I just point out that that is not wise if you do not have superior force?
You want to de-escalate. Put a flower in a gunbarrel, tell a police officer you love them, share your cookies with them, talk about how overtime sucks no matter where you work, that sort of thing.
Hell, ask a cute cop out if you feel like it.
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von

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #61 on: February 21, 2014, 11:38:02 pm »
And fuck all works against snipers.

dense smoke screens...

Feeling lucky?

well, the fuck else are you really gonna do?
you COULD go try to send guys to occupy all of the decent/likely sniper spots in the area...but that'd imply you have the man power AND know what those spots would be (i.e. you have someone with you who's trained in sniper tactics)
You could also engage in counter-sniping...but again, this requires someone well-versed in sniper tactics.

so yeah, I'd say that if you're really on about whatever it is your band of people are doing, burn some tires and run like fuck and use cover/concealment when you're in more open areas...

sucks, but it is what it is...
It seems your tactics always include escalation of violence. Might I just point out that that is not wise if you do not have superior force?
You want to de-escalate. Put a flower in a gunbarrel, tell a police officer you love them, share your cookies with them, talk about how overtime sucks no matter where you work, that sort of thing.
Hell, ask a cute cop out if you feel like it.

I get the angle you're coming from, but in this ukraine scenario, wherein there are snipers picking off unarmed individuals (including medics), police intentionally baiting protestors into maneuvring into line-of-fire for snipers, and rioters who are openly firebombing troop transports, I don't see much room for de-escalation other than packing up your shit and going home. With the fact that there are attacks on unarmed protestors with live fire, hell, "escalation" in this scenario appears to me to be simple self-defense from a police force that's gone overboard.

meh, either way, all I can say is this whole thing is grade-A shitty...as things stand, although I'd love for otherwise, I really can't see any good outcome to what's going on in this whole thing.

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #62 on: February 22, 2014, 11:00:45 am »
And fuck all works against snipers.

dense smoke screens...

Feeling lucky?

well, the fuck else are you really gonna do?
you COULD go try to send guys to occupy all of the decent/likely sniper spots in the area...but that'd imply you have the man power AND know what those spots would be (i.e. you have someone with you who's trained in sniper tactics)
You could also engage in counter-sniping...but again, this requires someone well-versed in sniper tactics.

so yeah, I'd say that if you're really on about whatever it is your band of people are doing, burn some tires and run like fuck and use cover/concealment when you're in more open areas...

sucks, but it is what it is...
It seems your tactics always include escalation of violence. Might I just point out that that is not wise if you do not have superior force?
You want to de-escalate. Put a flower in a gunbarrel, tell a police officer you love them, share your cookies with them, talk about how overtime sucks no matter where you work, that sort of thing.
Hell, ask a cute cop out if you feel like it.

I get the angle you're coming from, but in this ukraine scenario, wherein there are snipers picking off unarmed individuals (including medics), police intentionally baiting protestors into maneuvring into line-of-fire for snipers, and rioters who are openly firebombing troop transports, I don't see much room for de-escalation other than packing up your shit and going home. With the fact that there are attacks on unarmed protestors with live fire, hell, "escalation" in this scenario appears to me to be simple self-defense from a police force that's gone overboard.

meh, either way, all I can say is this whole thing is grade-A shitty...as things stand, although I'd love for otherwise, I really can't see any good outcome to what's going on in this whole thing.
Good point about the details of this specific situation.
I agree with teh bolded.
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Nigel saying the wisest words ever uttered: "It's just a suffix."

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #63 on: February 22, 2014, 11:13:40 am »
And fuck all works against snipers.

dense smoke screens...

Feeling lucky?

well, the fuck else are you really gonna do?
you COULD go try to send guys to occupy all of the decent/likely sniper spots in the area...but that'd imply you have the man power AND know what those spots would be (i.e. you have someone with you who's trained in sniper tactics)
You could also engage in counter-sniping...but again, this requires someone well-versed in sniper tactics.

so yeah, I'd say that if you're really on about whatever it is your band of people are doing, burn some tires and run like fuck and use cover/concealment when you're in more open areas...

sucks, but it is what it is...
It seems your tactics always include escalation of violence. Might I just point out that that is not wise if you do not have superior force?
You want to de-escalate. Put a flower in a gunbarrel, tell a police officer you love them, share your cookies with them, talk about how overtime sucks no matter where you work, that sort of thing.
Hell, ask a cute cop out if you feel like it.

The dippy hippy shit I can do without but you have got me thinking about how best a crowd can exercise authority in a given situation. Taunting and threatening, however common, seems to make shit messy. If you're protesting about something the mission is not to impose your message on the police.

I've seen all sorts of police abuse of power in the real world and in the media but I've also seen good examples of how the police deal assertively with a legitimate asshole. If a crowd understood that their job was the same as the police - ie to defuse a potential public order situation. It's a localised democracy. The police are minority agitators. I'm imagining a crowd of thousands encircling a couple of hundred police, in isolated groups, all acting in the kind of politely assertive manner we'd like to think our protectors should act.

Lead by example.
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Cain

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #64 on: February 22, 2014, 02:22:23 pm »
Looks like the President is in an "undisclosed location" for the time being.

I am sure I hear the distinct sound of champagne corks popping in the White House and State Department...

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #65 on: February 22, 2014, 03:36:55 pm »
Interestingly, reports of sniper fire killing police officers were reported, hours before the Ukranian government snipers were deployed.

I know every idiot with an Xbox thinks they could be an elite sniper, but that's a pretty specialised skill set.  I mean, you have to account for distance, weight, trajectory and wind when making shots...and with the snow, ice and occasional riot-influenced fire in Kiev at the moment, a clear line of sight is hardly guaranteed either.  It also takes a certain kind of person, mentally, to be able to kill someone not posing a direct threat to them.

So the question is, where did these snipers come from?

I mean, I see two likely explanations, though they are mutually contradictory.  Explanation one is a false-flag.  Elements within Ukranian security simulated an attack on riot police in order to justify deploying counter-sniper teams, who then opened fire on protestors.

Explanation two is more worrying.  I am coming around to the belief that Ukranian fascists did manage to loot military depots.  The Ukranian Army deployed troops away from the capital to protect these depots at a sensitive time, and undertook a large counter-terrorism operation aimed at securing airports and airlines, rather than at the protestors.

That would explain how they got possession of the arms.  The other question is how they were trained in their use, and by who?  Obvious suspicion falls on the US...but I don't believe even US intelligence would be that stupid.  If they were involved, it would be via a cut-out...only one is not springing to mind.

There's also an alternative version to explanation one.  The leadership of the Ukranian security services has been utterly abysmal during this crisis.  The riot police, for example, were instructed to only use hoses, riot shields and flash-bang grenades to defend themselves, even as they were having molotov cocktails and handguns used against them.  It's been bad enough that I believe there is reason to suspect someone sympathetic to the protestors or to their international backers within a position of influence in the Ukranian security structure.  Thus the sniper attacks were designed not only to justify the deployment of the counter-sniper teams, but they were then used to target innocent protestors in order to justify the violent wing of the anti-government forces.

Admittedly, that's a convoluted way to approach such things.  But it would explain a lot.  The protestors, even the non-violent ones, are no longer listening to the liberal parties in the Ukranian parliament who initially supported them.  In fact, their activities around Parliament in the past couple of days helped derail political attempts at a settlement.  The nature of the mob is that it is stupid and prone to irrational action...but that can also give cover to those who nudge the mob in key directions at key moments.

Cain

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #66 on: February 22, 2014, 04:34:06 pm »
Heh, paleoconservative and Ron Paul sites have been found to be taking money from the Ukranian government in return for talking points.  I am Cain's complete and utter lack of surprise, not only that offers were made, but were also accepted.

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #67 on: February 22, 2014, 04:41:26 pm »
Yanukoych outsted.  Yulia Tymoshenko has been released from custody, and is currently on her way to Kiev.  Presidential elections are set for May 25th.

Parliament seem to be taking charge at the moment, which is probably a good thing.  If they act like they're in charge in the absence of Yanukoych, more people will be inclined to accept it.  Transfer of the security services to parliamentary control was achieved yesterday.

It remains to be seen how the protestors, both the non-violent ones and the Right Sector/Svoboda linked ones respond.  I think Right Sector might actually hold off on doing something stupid, but stupid is pretty much Svoboda's guiding ideology, with low-rent fascism coming in a close second place.

Also remains to be seen is how Crimea and Kharkiv react.  If a civil war is to occur, the battle lines will be between the government in Kiev and those two regions.

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #68 on: February 22, 2014, 06:20:26 pm »
Interestingly, reports of sniper fire killing police officers were reported, hours before the Ukranian government snipers were deployed.

I know every idiot with an Xbox thinks they could be an elite sniper, but that's a pretty specialised skill set.  I mean, you have to account for distance, weight, trajectory and wind when making shots...and with the snow, ice and occasional riot-influenced fire in Kiev at the moment, a clear line of sight is hardly guaranteed either.  It also takes a certain kind of person, mentally, to be able to kill someone not posing a direct threat to them.

So the question is, where did these snipers come from?

I mean, I see two likely explanations, though they are mutually contradictory.  Explanation one is a false-flag.  Elements within Ukranian security simulated an attack on riot police in order to justify deploying counter-sniper teams, who then opened fire on protestors.

Explanation two is more worrying.  I am coming around to the belief that Ukranian fascists did manage to loot military depots.  The Ukranian Army deployed troops away from the capital to protect these depots at a sensitive time, and undertook a large counter-terrorism operation aimed at securing airports and airlines, rather than at the protestors.

That would explain how they got possession of the arms.  The other question is how they were trained in their use, and by who?  Obvious suspicion falls on the US...but I don't believe even US intelligence would be that stupid.  If they were involved, it would be via a cut-out...only one is not springing to mind.

There's also an alternative version to explanation one.  The leadership of the Ukranian security services has been utterly abysmal during this crisis.  The riot police, for example, were instructed to only use hoses, riot shields and flash-bang grenades to defend themselves, even as they were having molotov cocktails and handguns used against them.  It's been bad enough that I believe there is reason to suspect someone sympathetic to the protestors or to their international backers within a position of influence in the Ukranian security structure.  Thus the sniper attacks were designed not only to justify the deployment of the counter-sniper teams, but they were then used to target innocent protestors in order to justify the violent wing of the anti-government forces.

Admittedly, that's a convoluted way to approach such things.  But it would explain a lot.  The protestors, even the non-violent ones, are no longer listening to the liberal parties in the Ukranian parliament who initially supported them.  In fact, their activities around Parliament in the past couple of days helped derail political attempts at a settlement.  The nature of the mob is that it is stupid and prone to irrational action...but that can also give cover to those who nudge the mob in key directions at key moments.

I'll agree with you that sniping is indeed a specialised skill, but as for where the arms came from: ukraine does permit civil ownership of hunting arms.  There are images floating around of protestors with hunting rifles, shotguns, and even makarov and fort 12 handguns. (these latter arms are probably stolen, or otherwise illicit).

Although the techniques of sniping are indeed specialised, I would certainly say that some guy with a hunting rifle could certainly climb into a window and take pot-shots at the police. Naturally, his fire would be less effective than a trained sniper, and counter-sniping him would be far easier than counter-sniping  a trained sniper, but imo, this could certainly account for the higher amount of effectiveness displayed by the ukrainian military over the opposition forces (i.e. there are far more dead protestors than police).

As for whether the opposition snipers are false-flag or not, that's anyone's guess, but there have been rumours of the government doing as much...it wouldn't suprise me.

Cain

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #69 on: February 22, 2014, 06:23:27 pm »
Would a hunting rifle necessarily penetrate a police helmet though?  I mean, those things look pretty damn solid.  I would expect a hunting rifle to have some serious heft behind it, but I would suspect a proper military sniper rifle to have even more.

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #70 on: February 22, 2014, 06:40:41 pm »
Would a hunting rifle necessarily penetrate a police helmet though?  I mean, those things look pretty damn solid.  I would expect a hunting rifle to have some serious heft behind it, but I would suspect a proper military sniper rifle to have even more.



Most of the time, "hunting rifles" are chambered in a full-sized rifle cartridge. Given that this is east-europe/former soviet land, I'd say this would probably be something like 7.62x54mmR. Conversely, the ukraine military/police "sniper rifle" is the Dragunov...also chambered in 7.62x54mmR.
You might get some slight differences in muzzel velocity and accuracy based on barrel length of the firearms and machining quality, but overall, they'd be firing a round with about the same properties.

As for the Ukraine military helmet, they use the BK-6 Helmet, although I cannot find ballistic information on it. If its like military helmets in general, it should provide protection from shrapnel and some firearms, although I'd hazard that 7.62x54mmR COULD penetrate it. As for what sorts of plates or soft armour the ukraine forces are wearing...beats me, so I couldn't say. Anyway, this would certainly mean that an opposition sniper COULD kill a cop with a hunting rifle...he would have less effectiveness due to training and gear, but it wouldn't render him 100% ineffective...

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #71 on: February 23, 2014, 02:25:35 am »
What about simplifying things?

Some cop fucked up, bam! Friendly fire. Oops. What to do? Blame it on a sniper!

Cain

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #72 on: February 23, 2014, 11:54:21 am »
There's a lot of social media at these events though, including video cameras.  I would expect such an event to be captured on film, but I've not seen any evidence of it yet.  The reports of "sniper fire", those exact words, came from both the opposition and the government, the only question is over timing and chain of events.

Cain

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #73 on: February 24, 2014, 12:43:58 pm »
Remember way back, when I said the "liberal opposition" were as big a gang of oligarchs and kleptocrats as the government?

http://souciant.com/2014/02/the-tymoshenko-problem/

Quote
While Yulia may or may not have exceeded her authority in that gas deal, she certainly did abuse her office, repeatedly, and usually for her own financial gain. This caused a wave of scandals. Yet prosecutors have been reluctant to pursue any such abuses, out of a fear of self-exposure.

Even the most clear-cut corruption case against Yulia (first brought to light by the economist Andrey Novaka) – the collapse of United Energy Systems – never made it anywhere near the 2011 proceedings. Investigating this would have required cracking down on a network of very well-connected insiders.

Quote
Vyacheslav Konovalov, a criminology researcher, explains that “the initial idea behind ‘Dear Friends’ was a transparent system for monitoring public finance in place of the Soviet model. To do so, a system of tenders and a tender chamber were set up. Specially “favored” people with Western degrees were appointed to control the system. Soon enough the initiative produced many thirty year old ministers and deputy ministers, dubbed at the time ‘Kinder Surprises.’” They are an “untouchable tender mafia” presiding over a system where brokers enjoy kickbacks of thirty, fifty, up to seventy percent.

The tenders made it easy for Yulia and her allies to enjoy luxurious lifestyles without actually owning anything on paper. According to court documents, by the end of her trial, the only property they could confiscate from Yulia was a modest apartment in Dnepropetrovsk. But Yulia, as many others political elites in Ukraine spent much of her time in police-protected, luxurious villas.

The Yanukovych family has gone even further on a larger, more grotesque scale. According to the PEP Watch anti-corruption center, the net-worth of Yanukovych’s son Oleksandr has gone from 7 to 510 million UAH since 2010. His dacha in Mezhyhirya, showed off to the public on February 22nd, was a rude awakening. Luxury cars, gilded toilets, a lakeside galleon, and a private zoo were found. Acres and acres of tasteless, overpriced junk that cost millions of dollars.

The opinion on whether Yulia Timoshenko’s tenure in office was criminal or effective differs. But as the crowds gear up for lynching Yanukovych, it might be wise to remember that both more than occasionally relied on offshore schemes for personal benefits and maintaining “friendship” with Russia. The gas deal Yulia cut with Russia isn’t so different from the (since annulled) contract Yanukovych signed with Putin on December 17th.

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Re: Anybody look at Ukraine lately?
« Reply #74 on: February 26, 2014, 12:01:52 pm »
Cain, Full kudos for calling the Tymosenko developments. I really should start trying to place bets based on your predictions.

Snipers, I'll go into that more when I get some time later. There's something very odd there and I suspect there's shooters from multiple factions with various sympathies. There's enough weapons kicking around and plenty of people with grudges against both police and protestors. Hell, you can't even rule out a couple of random lunatics. My main point here was if you're relying on smoke cover against guns, it's not going to end well for you. It's not like they only get one shot.

Further developments:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26350088

Quote
kraine's acting interior minister has said the elite Berkut police unit, blamed for the deaths of protesters, has been disbanded.

It is unclear what will happen to Berkut officers, but Arsen Avakov said more details would be given in a briefing on Wednesday.

The unit had 4,000-5,000 members stationed across Ukraine.

Meanwhile, a new cabinet is expected to be presented to protesters in Kiev on Wednesday afternoon.

This is going to get fun. How do you think the police in question are going to feel about all of this? I'd go for "Disgruntled". Good job upset cops never do anything foolish, eh?
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