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Anybody look at Ukraine lately?

Started by Random Probability, January 23, 2014, 12:35:09 AM

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Junkenstein

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26012340

QuoteUkrainian President Viktor Yanukovych is to return to work on Monday after four days of illness, with protesters still demanding he give up power.

The political crisis has continued unabated in his absence, with thousands on the streets of the capital, Kiev.

The EU and US are considering a big loan to help debt-laden Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The aid package would be conditional on Kiev embracing "real reform and a real transition", a US official said.

US Secretary of State John Kerry and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton discussed the possible lifeline for Ukraine at a security conference in Munich at the weekend.

Russia, engaged in diplomatic rivalry with the EU over Ukraine, last week said it was delaying the next instalment of a $15bn (£9bn) aid package.

QuoteMeanwhile, the severely injured Ukrainian opposition leader Dmytro Bulatov has arrived in Lithuania for medical treatment.

Mr Bulatov appeared on TV last week saying he had been abducted and tortured.

QuoteMr Bulatov arrived in Vilnius in the early hours of Monday morning and was immediately taken to hospital, the Baltic News Service reports.

Lithuania has promised to treat any protesters injured in the crisis.

He went missing on 22 January and re-emerged eight days later on the outskirts of Kiev.

He appeared on TV with a gash on his face and part of his ear cut off. He said he had been held and beaten for eight days.

QuoteMr Bulatov was a leader of a group called AutoMaidan, made up mainly of drivers who would protect the protest camps and blockade streets.

He told the media he had been "crucified" by his abductors, whom he could not identify other than to say they had Russian accents.

Totally surprising and unexpected, right?
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

Russian sounding.  Uh-huh.  Because Ukraine certainly doesn't have any people bright enough to figure out to torture someone or experienced enough in their own FSB.  I mean, beating someone up is a complex skill set, not just any thug could do it.  No wonder they needed to go find outside help, Russian help to torture the guy.

Yeah, I'm just slightly suspicious.  Russia doesn't need to do anything, here.  The economic sanctions mean whoever is in charge in Kiev, they will have to pivot themselves due Moscow or else they'll be out of power, because what's left of the Ukranian economy will crumble.

If Russia is acting anywhere, it will be in the Crimea, to protect it's fleet.  Interestingly enough, the Crimean regional government and Sevastapol have come to an arrangement to create civilian militias should the government in Kiev fall.  So that's already taken care of.

Junkenstein

The "Russian sounding" thing stinks all over. The Crimean angle is new to me, I'll have to dig into that more. Civilian militias can cause all sorts of fun, so it's handy to know about it now. I'm guessing if Putin doesn't get what he wants then these people will become "difficult"?
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

The Crimea was, briefly, an independent republic, and still has significant amount of freedom within the Ukranian political system.  It's also the richest part of Ukraine, and benefits significantly from trade with Russia, as well as the presence of the Ukranian and Russian Black Sea fleets.

As far as I can see, that would satisfy Russia's major geopolitical needs in the region.  Obviously it would rather Kiev were not a basket case, but the Black Sea Fleet is secure, and trade will continue.  The west is dragging down the east in economic performance, the Crimea in particular, so there are likely benefits to succession, as Putin can them palm off the basket case provinces to the EU. 

Junkenstein

#34
Because it's just not a news story until there's an embarrasing US leak:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26072281

QuoteAn apparently bugged phone conversation in which a senior US diplomat disparages the EU over the Ukraine crisis has been posted online.

A voice resembling that of Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland refers to the EU using a graphic swear word, in a conversation apparently with the US ambassador to Ukraine.

The US said Ms Nuland had "apologised for these reported comments".

Quotehe alleged conversation between Ms Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, appeared on YouTube on Thursday.

The 4min 10sec video was entitled "Maidan's puppets" in Russian - a reference to the square in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, where pro-EU protests have been held for months. A transcription of the whole conversation was also posted in Russian.

At one point, the female speaker mentions the UN and its possible role in trying to find a solution to the Ukraine stand-off.

She says: "So that would be great, I think, to help glue this thing and have the UN help glue it and you know..." she then uses the graphic swear word about the EU.

QuoteUS officials refused to confirm or deny the tape's authenticity, but state department spokeswoman Jan Psaki said: "I didn't say it was inauthentic."

QuoteEarlier on Thursday, a senior aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Washington of interfering in Ukraine's domestic affairs.

Sergei Glazyev said the US was spending $20m (£12.3m; 14.8m euros) a week on Ukrainian opposition groups, supplying "rebels" with arms among other things.

While the last part may be bullshit, it's not in the realms of the unknown for either side. If there is this kind of level of arms moving into the country the chances of them ending up with less than responsible people are rather high.

More fun ahoy then.

ETA - Fixed idiot mistake.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

The funny thing it is in the best national interest that Ukraine is stable, which neither the EU or Russia are contributing towards.

Of course, the US record in realising and acting on their own best interest is fairly poor.  To put it mildly.

Junkenstein

That's the understatement of the day.

I can only assume that there's more money to be made from an unstable Ukraine than a stable one. At least in the short/medium term. Long term? Who gives a fuck. Someone else in power by that point so it's no big deal.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Junkenstein

This shit just isn't stopping:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26252679

QuoteIn a statement, the health ministry said on Wednesday the number of dead on both sides had risen to 25. Nine of those killed were police, the interior ministry says. A journalist has also died.

Hundreds of people have been treated in hospital for injuries and there are fears the number of deaths could rise still further.

QuoteIn a statement on Wednesday morning, President Yanukovych said: "The opposition leaders have disregarded the principle of democracy according to which one obtains power not on the streets or maidans - but through elections."

"They have crossed the line by calling for people to take up arms," he said, warning that those responsible for violence would face the law.

But the president added that there was a "better and more effective way" to solve the crisis - through dialogue and compromise.

Not looking better any time soon.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

They tried storming parliament.  While it was debating provisions to return to the 2004 constitution.  Which opposition groups had been pressing for.

It's getting entirely out of control over there.

Junkenstein

Police are now using water cannons which can only crank up the death/injured rate. With the arms factor this could get very ugly, very quickly.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

Given nine police officers were shot and killed, I suppose we should count ourselves lucky they haven't started shooting people dead in the streets.

I mean, the Met wouldn't show that kind of restraint.

Junkenstein

True. I'd wager good money that anyone arrested in the foreseeable future learns exactly how many hidden stairs are in police stations though.

Which adds the "protestor killed in custody" angle sooner or later. At this rate probably by the weekend.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

I actually doubt it. Tortured while in custody, sure, but actually killed...far less likely.

Meanwhile, John McCain is making some kind of big deal about how Ukraine's crackdown on protestors comes just as Ukraine gets financial aid from Russia.  McCain doesnt mention, for some reason, that protestors tried to storm parliament after receiving funds from Neocons and German conservatives.

Junkenstein

Well apparently a truce is agreed with the toll standing at "at least 26". Will be interesting to see how long it holds for.

Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

The Good Reverend Roger

Everything just went in the shitter.  At least 70 more dead.
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