Anybody look at Ukraine lately?

[The Good Reverend Roger]

All we need is for Russian state channels to start airing Alexander Nevsky and we'll have the full set.

[Cain]

Tom Clancy would've been loving this shit.  No more writing inane nonsense about terrorists, the Russians are back!

[East Coast Hustle]

Le sigh?

You think we should get into a shooting war with Russia over a piece of land that is, historically, culturally, linguistically, and ethnically Russian?

Don't get me wrong though, I understand why Poland is the most strident voice against all of this. But let's make sure it's actually going to play out like that before we start acting like it already is.

[East Coast Hustle]

I'm not 100% sure that the US-Europe axis doesn't have the stones to impose sanctions on Russian energy exports, which would have a very real and immediate effect.

I'd say the chances of Russia moving to take all of eastern Ukraine are pretty good. Troops massing on the border, news broadcasts in Russia talking about ultra-nationalists committing violence against ethnic Russians in Ukraine, Russia talking about its right to protect its compatriots abroad, etc.

I think there's a chance that, if "The West" acts quickly and decisively at that point, it may stop there.

If not, well, I'm glad I'm too old to be conscripted.

[Telarus]

I've been wondering what will come of that treaty.....

[The Johnny]

The fact is, Ole' Slick Willie signed a treaty with Ukraine guaranteeing American military protection specifically from Russia way back in 1994. 10 years later almost to the day, at the first hint of trouble, we're blinking.

It's an indicator, is why I'm sighing. I'm not going to say it's a death knell for American global dominance, but it's a huge indicator that we're no longer prepared to back up our treaties.

And if we don't back up our treaties, the entire show is going to begin falling like the largest Jenga game ever played.

So right now we watch while Ukrainian loyalists are getting killed by the hundreds and soon the thousands waiting for American troops who will never come.

Things change a lot in 20 years. And a decline in USA global political dominance? Boo hoo.

[Cain]

Meh, treaties are pieces of paper.  Or are we going to seriously argue that the UK and USA wont dispose with their treaty obligations when it suits their national interests?  Lest we forget, Russia also signed the Budapest Memorandum. I'm pretty sure anyone waving that around on the Crimean border would've gotten a short, sharp shock in the reality of power politics.

Incidentally, that protection was meant to be in return for Ukraine giving up all its nuclear ambitions.  My chatty little friends in the country tell me that regional governments in Ukraine have been pressuring the government to repudiate the memorandum and announce nuclear ambitions since 2009.  And there was a more recent threat along those lines too.

Russia could furthermore argue that outside influence on the Euromaidan protest movement shows the UK and USA were not respecting the sovereignty of Ukraine either, and such violations resulted in a change of government, thus voiding Russia's obligations.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that they have no fear of the current administration

You know, not everything in the world is about the US.  There's an increasingly vicious power struggle in the Russian cabinet at the moment over strengthening links with the EU versus links with China, which the Crimean crisis is being used as a proxy for.

Furthermore, you clearly didn't read any of my earlier posts.  I'll give you a reminder:

But on the other hand, we have spent 20 years trying to destroy Russia as a cohesive political player, through the application of shock economics, encouraging the rise of the oligarchs, support for Chechen rebels, encroaching on Russia's former sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and generally treating them like morons whenever they complained about this ("conspiratorial Soviet mindset" etc).

In Putin's position, would you listen to anything western diplomats and leaders had to say?  Or would you work to protect your core military and strategic assets, in the face of a threat with overwhelming conventional military superiority, greater economic resources, control of most major international institutions and extensive propaganda networks?

Ukraine also offers a possible base for early-warning detectors for any future "European Shield" missile defense plan, another land and maritime base to threaten to encircle Russia with.  Russian fear of strategic encirclement dates back to the Mongol invasions, and is a constant theme of their geopolitical strategy.  So Russian fear of NATO intentions, not lack of fear, drove these actions.

I'm not going to say it's a death knell for American global dominance, but it's a huge indicator that we're no longer prepared to back up our treaties.

And if we don't back up our treaties, the entire show is going to begin falling like the largest Jenga game ever played.

No nation is prepared to back their treaties unless its in their interests.

And again, the rest of the world doesn't interpret US actions the same way the US does.  What western hawks see as American inaction, Russia sees as American subversion, sabotage and insurgency.  In fact, let's just look at an account of the decision-making before the invasion of the Crimea:

An examination of the seismic events that set off the most threatening East-West confrontation since the Cold War era, based on Mr. Putin's public remarks and interviews with officials, diplomats and analysts here, suggests that the Kremlin's strategy emerged haphazardly, even misleadingly, over a tense and momentous week, as an emotional Mr. Putin acted out of what the officials described as a deep sense of betrayal and grievance, especially toward the United States and Europe.

That hardly sounds like Russia was emboldened by American weakness.  So why should we assume that other actors will not also react in similar ways?

Russian news casters tell of 'Ultra-Nationalists' which is just another term for 'current Ukrainian citizens' who 'don't want massive parts of their country stolen by a neighbor' committing 'violence' against people who want to let the nearest neighbor take massive parts of the country.

Well, I'm glad to hear that Svoboda and Right Sector are not extreme nationalist movements with a history of armed violence and anti-Russophone sentiment.  Could you please explain that to their membership?  You may want to bring a flak jacket.

These 'russian compatriots' are 'traitors' of the Ukraine. It's all a word game in the news media. If Mexican-americans here in California began agitating to have California, Texas and New Mexico annexed to Mexico, or if Canadians began agitating for Northern states to be annexed to Canada they would be traitors.

Entirely inappropriate analogy.  Crimea was part of Russia until the 1950s, and was transferred as part of a larger administrative change within the Soviet Union.  The Crimea also declared independence after the fall of the USSR, but was coerced into integrating with the rest of Ukraine by outside powers afraid of empowering secessionist movements in the former Soviet Union and creating large zones of conflict across the region.

I didn't realise Texas also had such a complex recent history.

Don't let Russian propaganda get to you. Remember, they are the ones ready and willing to steal massive tracts of land in a military invasion.

And what of American propaganda?  Are you naive enough to think the US threw money to help take advantage of discontent and unrest in Ukraine without also significantly managing the message the media were sending out about events in the country?  Please.  This is a geopolitical clusterfuck, a good 50% of reporting is based on "anonymous sources" reading off intelligence agency or foreign ministry talking points.

And to be honest, in any free and fair election, Crimea would almost certainly join Russia.  Doesn't justify how Russia has gone about what it's doing, which is certainly a violation of international law, but it doesn't exactly make it completely unjustified conquest either. (though let's not forget, advocating secession in Russia is a criminal offence, and Russia will never let Dagestan or Chechnya secede.  Hypocrisy, in my international politics?  Quelle surprise).

Also, remember that Putin stole all of Georgia not even 5 years ago. He's an aggressive expansionist.

lolwut.  You cannot be serious.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia declared independence from Georgia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.  Such independence was supported by Russia, but not without some brutal fighting beforehand, with involved some very nasty ethnic cleansing on both sides.

In 2008, Georgia's President decided to gamble on reinvading South Ossetia while the world was focused on the Olympic games and reconquering his lost province.  Georgian forces killed Russian troops in South Ossetia, sparking a large-scale Russian military response.

It was completely unjustified in terms of scale, and clearly intended to serve as an example of punitive measures against people who kill Russian troops.  But Georgia is still, in fact, an independent state and not merely a part of the Russian Federation.

Oh, and at the time, the President of Russia was Dmitry Medvedev, not Putin.  Contrary to popular belief (read: unsupported opinions), Medvedev was not merely a Putin lackey, and had several quite different policy agendas to Putin.

So Russia has, in the past decade, invaded exactly two countries.  Wow.  I wish the UK and USA had that kind of "aggressive expansionist" record.

[The Johnny]

If the yard stick were measuring by is: war-mongerism, imperialism, corruption, geopolitical positioning self-interest and profit... i have news for you, Russia isnt the worst nor the only offender.

Are you american? That might be giving you some type of rose coloured glasses towards the actions of some of the political actors... we foreigners? we just see a clusterfuck with grey-on-grey morality.

And Hitler comparisons are passé since around almost 3 decades ago, please.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Don't let Russian propaganda get to you. Remember, they are the ones ready and willing to steal massive tracts of land in a military invasion.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

The beginning of the South Ossetian conflict is debated by both sides. Georgians say the Russians and South Ossetians shelled them and uplayed the whole thing to invite conflict. The russians say they were shelled first. What ended up happening was Russian expansion.

You seem to forget that Vladmir Putin is a Dictator who, when it was time to leave office in Russia, created a WHOLE NEW POSITION TO INSERT HIMSELF INTO. He has now served as the De Facto head of Russia since 1999 under various guises of supreme ruler.

He ruthlessly crushes public opposition and simply incarcerates those who speak out against him. And here we are again, with Russia poised for another Hitleresque military expansion and people want to just applaud along happily.

I'm having a hard time seeing how anyone but the most severe Kremlin apologist could defend him right now.

Not sure about "defending" him.  It's just that, you know, who cares? 

[The Good Reverend Roger]

You're supporting military invasion of sovereign states as a way to solve political boundary issues. Or maybe not. I can't hang with that, I must be a craaazy American. And it's true, we are Free men and women. We have no Czar like Russia, we have no King or Queen, Pope or Junta.

This is awesome satire.

[The Johnny]

I DEMAND a showdown between Von, Scilon and Nihil.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I DEMAND a showdown between Von, Scilon and Nihil.

VoT would have been good, too.

[The Johnny]

I DEMAND a showdown between Von, Scilon and Nihil.

VoT would have been good, too.

idk if i cant recall or i wasnt around yet =\

[ñͤͣ̄ͦ̌̑͗͊͛͂͗ ̸̨̨̣̺̼̣̜͙͈͕̮̊̈́̈͂͛̽͊ͭ̓͆ͅé ̰̓̓́ͯ́́͞]

Too bad we can't agree on any point but it's hard when you can't see any part of my post where I might have credence or sense 

Is it possible that your post just makes no sense after looking at multiple sources on the issue? Where are you getting your information from?