Anybody look at Ukraine lately?

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Putin is an aggressive expansionalist and Russian invasion of Crimea violates a treaty signed by the US.

Russia isn't bound by article VI of the US constitution.  We really can't do much about it without going to war.  And I don't know about you, but the idea of war with Russia over the Crimea doesn't seem particularly wise.

For one thing, there's nothing to gain.

For another thing, the way this shakes out will be determined by how well Putin plays the political game.  It could either stabilize the area or have it come completely unglued.  If the area becomes stable, I am all for it.  If it turns into another Chechnya...Well, that's Putin's look out, not ours.

[Junkenstein]

Reasons I put up with my job #3372B - I can Copy/paste the past couple of pages of this thread and read them in a mandatory meeting that I have no reason to be at.

Thanks Cain.

[P3nT4gR4m]

Putin is an aggressive expansionalist and Russian invasion of Crimea violates a treaty signed by the US.

Russia isn't bound by article VI of the US constitution.  We really can't do much about it without going to war.  And I don't know about you, but the idea of war with Russia over the Crimea doesn't seem particularly wise.

For one thing, there's nothing to gain.

For another thing, the way this shakes out will be determined by how well Putin plays the political game.  It could either stabilize the area or have it come completely unglued.  If the area becomes stable, I am all for it.  If it turns into another Chechnya...Well, that's Putin's look out, not ours.

This! It's not a humanitarian crisis unless valuable resources are being harmed. "harmed" in this context, meaning "up for grabs"

[Cain]

Not read the rest of the thread yet, but I just want to point out Crimean authorities are claiming that yesterday's shooting of a Ukranian officer also killed a "self-defense militia" member.

And they're claiming mystery snipers are behind these shootings, too.  Seems to be an awful lot of mystery snipers running around Ukraine these days.

[The Johnny]

Its funny how in this day and age unnacountability is still a thing.

OR

Illuminatis

[Cain]

Could be anyone who thinks they have something to gain by forcing a confrontation.

Which, these days, is practically everyone.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Putin is an aggressive expansionalist and Russian invasion of Crimea violates a treaty signed by the US.

Russia isn't bound by article VI of the US constitution.  We really can't do much about it without going to war.  And I don't know about you, but the idea of war with Russia over the Crimea doesn't seem particularly wise.

For one thing, there's nothing to gain.

For another thing, the way this shakes out will be determined by how well Putin plays the political game.  It could either stabilize the area or have it come completely unglued.  If the area becomes stable, I am all for it.  If it turns into another Chechnya...Well, that's Putin's look out, not ours.

Of course you're right, Russia isn't bound by our Constitution never meant to imply that. My concern is that we as the USA!USA! are bound to mutual aid and defense with Ukraine through treaty (as much as we all wish we weren't).

They have already had a violent clash of troops, I expect things to heat up over the next weeks. We'll see what happens on the 21st to see if the tentative truce is renewed or not.

As far as Putin's political game, I have to say with respect that he has Obama largely trumped.

Obama isn't even part of the equation; I am referring to whether or not he can pacify the Crimea's population and mollify (or just cow) the Ukraine.  I seriously doubt Putin has given our opinion a second thought.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Aaaaaaand checking the news Russian forces have stormed and taken a Naval base in Sevastopol, somehow peacefully. Not clear if they took prisoners or what happened to the garrison on duty.

What is clear is that they are not backing down from taking territory. Just like South Oss. they will likely take and hold, defying Western backed powers to force them back out.

They stormed it peacefully?   

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Aaaaaaand checking the news Russian forces have stormed and taken a Naval base in Sevastopol, somehow peacefully. Not clear if they took prisoners or what happened to the garrison on duty.

What is clear is that they are not backing down from taking territory. Just like South Oss. they will likely take and hold, defying Western backed powers to force them back out.

They stormed it peacefully?   

Maybe they stormed it with cotton candy and dandelion puffs.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Aaaaaaand checking the news Russian forces have stormed and taken a Naval base in Sevastopol, somehow peacefully. Not clear if they took prisoners or what happened to the garrison on duty.

What is clear is that they are not backing down from taking territory. Just like South Oss. they will likely take and hold, defying Western backed powers to force them back out.

They stormed it peacefully?   

Maybe they stormed it with cotton candy and dandelion puffs.

They stormed it with polite requests.

[East Coast Hustle]

Aaaaaaand checking the news Russian forces have stormed and taken a Naval base in Sevastopol, somehow peacefully. Not clear if they took prisoners or what happened to the garrison on duty.

What is clear is that they are not backing down from taking territory. Just like South Oss. they will likely take and hold, defying Western backed powers to force them back out.

They stormed it peacefully?   

Maybe it was the naval base in Sevastopol that's their own base?

[Cain]

Cain, what is your opinion of the possibility of Russia moving to annex more of eastern Ukraine?

In the short term, I don't see it happening.  Russia will need to consolidate its military position in Crimea, and further aggressive moves threaten to isolate it further from India and China, whose approval they seem to be desperately seeking at the moment.  China in particular is not happy with how things went down...you know, their fears concerning internal unrest leading to international tensions.

But there are some worries.

Firstly, if Ukraine descends into civil war, Russia will intervene.  I think that's a given.  I can see an eastern Ukrainian government, while probably not entirely keen on Russian rule* would certainly welcome Russian military protection and whatever edge that could give them in a conflict.  The Ukrainian military is in pretty awful shape, I have no doubt Russian arms and Russian training would prove superior in any confrontation, and the Eastern oligarchs are no doubt aware of this poor military situation.

Secondly, and more concerning, is Putin's references in his speech the other day to the "historical mistake" that led to Russians finding themselves in new countries, and talked about how the Ukrainian border with Russia had never been properly demarcated following the collpase of the Soviet Union.  Both true, of course, but if I were a Baltic state, or Kazakhstan, I'd not be feeling confident about such a speech and where the implications of those problems lead.

Interestingly, Putin's same speech also directly referenced Stalin's crimes in Ukraine, both towards the Tartars and to the Ukrainian Presidency.  I will admit, I did not expect that.  I can only wonder whether it was intended to mollify the Crimean Tartars, or if there was another intended audience for such a message.

Of course, events on the ground have to be taken into account.  Will the Ukranian military attempt to seize the Crimean peninsula by force?  History shows Russia would probably respond to such an attack not just by repelling the invading force, but carrying the attack over deep into Ukrainian territory, likely bombing Kyiv and the logistical support for any such attack.  Would the West then respond by sending material and military advisors to Ukraine?  We're refusing to close the door on potential Ukrainian membership in NATO...and given the support to the Euromaidan, I'm not so sure we wouldn't try and use the Ukranians as a proxy force to bleed Russia.  Obama is a student of The Zbig, after all, and that was his playbook in Afghanistan.  And given the awful state of the Ukrainian military, the assistance would have to be significant.

And the above scenario is the one which keeps me up at night.  Ukrainian internal bickering draws us all into a conflict we don't want and don't need. Russian intelligence in Ukraine is significant enough to be able to tap phonelines of diplomatic calls at will, or so it seems.  Russia would find evidence of such support, and then things would get really bad, really fast.

Incidentally, I ran the Budapest Memo by some international law-involved friends.  Their general feeling was that it did not amount to a strict security guarantee, certainly nothing like, say, the British military alliance with Belgium before WWI.  Not that I ever expected us to feel legally bound to get into a war we did not want in the first place, but that line of thought seems to be being promoted by people with that sort of agenda in mind, to create the feeling of obligation and the expectation of it being carried out.

*My understanding is that while they see themselves as culturally Russian, the political affiliation is far weaker.  Furthermore, the leadership of these provinces know that if they join the Russian Federation, they will have to render unto Moscow...unlike in the current situation, where they mostly render unto their Swiss numbered accounts. 

[Junkenstein]

And the above scenario is the one which keeps me up at night.  Ukrainian internal bickering draws us all into a conflict we don't want and don't need. Russian intelligence in Ukraine is significant enough to be able to tap phonelines of diplomatic calls at will, or so it seems.  Russia would find evidence of such support, and then things would get really bad, really fast.

Incidentally, I ran the Budapest Memo by some international law-involved friends.  Their general feeling was that it did not amount to a strict security guarantee, certainly nothing like, say, the British military alliance with Belgium before WWI.  Not that I ever expected us to feel legally bound to get into a war we did not want in the first place, but that line of thought seems to be being promoted by people with that sort of agenda in mind, to create the feeling of obligation and the expectation of it being carried out.

There's a number of remarkable similarities between what seems to be going on now and previous conflict build-ups. I can't help but think that there's a substantial number of businesses that profit in environments like this and even more so when times get worse. People shrug when the military-industrial complex problem is mentioned about the USA. Israel still leads in drone manufacture. All of these and related industries are highly profitable with extremely lucrative contracts for some. Hostile environments are ideal for creating sudden shortages and market manipulations.

I guess what I'm getting at is that I can't help but also consider this in financial fuckery terms because I'm damn fucking certain no end of that has and will go on.

My other thought is that the lines may eventually be drawn based around who's been caught spying on their "friends" and who hasn't. The EU has been fairly mild in its treatment of GCHQ compared to the NSA. It wouldn't take much to make that change. Economic consequences again follow.

[Telarus]

http://rt.com/politics/russian-duma-sanctions-crimea-594/

The State Duma has passed a motion suggesting that the US and EU extend the freshly introduced sanctions to all Russian MPs rather than a limited group of officials, defying western pressure just hours before Russia and Crimea signed a federation treaty.

The motion was supported by a unanimous vote on Tuesday morning. It was prepared the day before by all four parliamentary parties after representatives of the United States and the European Union said they were slapping sanctions, such as visa bans and asset freezes, on a number of Russian officials who are seen as "key ideologists and architects" of the policy towards Ukraine.

Oh really? 

[Cain]

This Is Your Euromaidan On Drugs Power:

Meanwhile the new PM in the Ukraine is imposing IMF austerity measures, like removing subsidies on Gas (50% increase) and cutting pensions (50%) cut. He says he's on a Kamikazee mission.  That's because he's not elected, so he can do thing that an elected leader could never do.

Which is to say: there is a coup, backed by a popular uprising in the capital, which puts in place an unelected government, which does things that elected governments repeatedly refused to do.  The East and South of the country, which voted in the last elected government, is unhappy with this.

It's really hard to conclude that Crimea didn't do the right thing for most of their population by joining Russia.  50% increase in natural gas prices and 50% cut in pensions?  Would you stand still for that? Oh, and the average pension in the Ukraine is—$160/month.  $80 after it's cut.

The last government may have been a bunch of corrupt assholes, but it's hard to conclude that taking Russia's deal of 15 billion dollars and subsidized gas wasn't, actually, a better deal for most Ukrainians than approximately the same amount of money from the West + IMF austerity.  And these are only some of the measures: the civil service will be slashed, the government natural gas company will be privatized (meaning even higher prices down the road), the ban on selling agricultural land to foreigners will be lifted, and so on.

The EuroMaidan's legacy won't just be losing Crimea, it will be turning the Ukraine into Greece.