Anybody look at Ukraine lately?

[Cain]

In regards to the Vostok battalion:

The Vostok ('East') Battalion, after all, seems not to be exactly the same as the Chechen unit of that name which was raised from former guerrillas and disbanded after its participation in the 2008 Georgian War.

[...]

This is not a straightforward reconstruction of the old unit. The command structure appears different, and although 'Vostochniki' form the core of the battalion, it also includes non-Chechens and volunteers who were never in the old force. It appears to be a hybrid 'patriotic mercenary' unit of volunteers happy for a fight, for a chance to get back with their comrades, and for pay. I don't know who pays it, but even if it is technically the self-proclaimed DPR government, their access to ready cash is pretty limited and, through one cut-out or another, I presume that the GRU is ultimately paying the piper and calling the tune.

The larger article makes the point that, as with almost all kinds of irregular warfare, the whole thing is threatening to spiral out of Moscow's control.  Putin is not interested in Ukrainian warlordism, no matter how beneficial it would be in the short term, because warlordism in the long-term is usually pretty awful and, unlike the Ukrainian political elite (both Russophone and Russophobe), Putin has shown a capability to think more than one step ahead.

[Cain]

Everyone, you might want to keep your eyes on Lugansk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

In the former, Ukranian fighter planes strafed the seperatist seized but civilian main administrative building, killing a dozen people.  CNN seem to be reporting on it fairly, the BBC are equivocating in their normal spineless way and RT are being over the top and hysterical in delivery, but broadly accurate.

The latter two are coming under extremely heavy artillery fire, and Ukrainian troop movements suggest plans to attack the cities will go into play sometime this weekend (my bet: tomorrow evening/night, to avoid the international news.  Always invade on a Friday evening, if you wish the press to be absent).

[Junkenstein]

Well, shit. What's your guess at the end result here? At this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see an east/west split eventually.

Out of curiosity, is there something of a precedent for invading/fuckery on Friday evenings? If I recall right the last major bout of Egyptian chaos kicked off on a Friday evening too.

[Cain]

Hard to say.  It's pretty chaotic, you have a demoralised and underfunded Ukranian military, using mostly obsolete equipment, against irregulars of dubious military training and AWOL/"on leave" Russian military personnel with mostly light arms.

And yes, there is a long history of coups and invasions on Fridays.  Most civil servants are home, most military personnel who are not on duty are making the most of their free time, and most reporters are doing the same. 

[The Johnny]

I got a news from a shitty news site that spams cellphones (which i didnt request and cant cancel, but ANYWAYS) that USA made a new ultimatum to Russia saying that Ruskiland has 30 days to change their policy in the Ukraine.

Uh?

[Cain]

Yeah, Obama and Cameron are trying to act tough.

It's pretty bizarre, actually, as one of their demands is that Russia recognise "Petro Poroshenko's election as the new leader in Ukraine."  Which, uh, they did.  Like, right after the election.  Almost as fast as the EU and USA.

And the others are things that Russia are already working with Poroshenko over, like how to calm tensions in East Ukraine (or, from the Russian POV, neutralise Russophone sentiment that is not under Kremlin direction.  But basically the same thing).  And if Russia doesn't do these things which it is already doing, then the West will impose sanctions.  Really Real Sanctions (for Realness).  Or so Cameron and Obama say.

Of course, this ultimatum may have been a not so coded message to the Ukrainian government to ramp up the crazy, which Poroshenko has somewhat obliged, with his declaration that Crimea is forever a part of Ukraine.  As Joseph "Funny Man" Stalin might quip, "how many divisions does the Ukrainian Army have?"  Speaking of which...

There's been heavy artillery fire into the residential outskirts of Slavyansk early this morning, followed by reports of heavy fighting in villages near the city.  Lots of reports of Grad missile fire.  An armoured column has taken up position outside Lugansk, but does not appear to be assaulting the city yet.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Yeah, Obama and Cameron are trying to act tough.

This isn't exactly their strong point.

[Cain]

No, it is quite frankly embarassing to watch.  Obama can be tough, but he is publically adverse to conflict, and it shows in his awkward manner whenever he tries to project strength or conviction.

And Cameron...well, enough said.

And of course this is directed at Putin, who is my personal odds on favourite for the most dangerous world leader, in terms of capability and ingenuity.  And who could probably, personally, break either world leader's arm with a well timed handshake turned judo move.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

No, it is quite frankly embarassing to watch.  Obama can be tough, but he is publically adverse to conflict, and it shows in his awkward manner whenever he tries to project strength or conviction.

And Cameron...well, enough said.

And of course this is directed at Putin, who is my personal odds on favourite for the most dangerous world leader, in terms of capability and ingenuity.  And who could probably, personally, break either world leader's arm with a well timed handshake turned judo move.

Obama is the original "smoky back room" dealer.  He doesn't posture well in public, at least on the tough guy level.

His public act ought to be a "you're adorable" act aimed at Putin's recent acquisitions, if he really feels a need to say anything.

[UB]

No, it is quite frankly embarassing to watch.  Obama can be tough, but he is publically adverse to conflict, and it shows in his awkward manner whenever he tries to project strength or conviction.

And Cameron...well, enough said.

And of course this is directed at Putin, who is my personal odds on favourite for the most dangerous world leader, in terms of capability and ingenuity.  And who could probably, personally, break either world leader's arm with a well timed handshake turned judo move.

Obama is the original "smoky back room" dealer.  He doesn't posture well in public, at least on the tough guy level.

His public act ought to be a "you're adorable" act aimed at Putin's recent acquisitions, if he really feels a need to say anything.

Contrary to our previous show of displaced discord.... I agree about Obama's presence in the current political front. He is exceedingly impressive, however, with doublespeak and anyone aware of reptilian depth would further appreciative what he seems to bring to the international table. Smoky back rooms may have been the "thing" at one time to conduct the hidden strategies and agendas, but just as what was going on under the table, such secrets have given way to the adept double speaking of our current elitists. Whether we like it or not, Obama represents a political elitist.

[Cain]

No, it is quite frankly embarassing to watch.  Obama can be tough, but he is publically adverse to conflict, and it shows in his awkward manner whenever he tries to project strength or conviction.

And Cameron...well, enough said.

And of course this is directed at Putin, who is my personal odds on favourite for the most dangerous world leader, in terms of capability and ingenuity.  And who could probably, personally, break either world leader's arm with a well timed handshake turned judo move.

Obama is the original "smoky back room" dealer.  He doesn't posture well in public, at least on the tough guy level.

His public act ought to be a "you're adorable" act aimed at Putin's recent acquisitions, if he really feels a need to say anything.

Indeed.  I suppose he now no longer has Hillary Clinton for these kind of things...I mean, I wouldn't trust John Kerry or Joe Biden to not somehow fuck it up if they tried, so I can kinda see his dilemma...but yes.  For someone who seems very aware and capable when it comes to rhetoric, he's showing a remarkable lack of awareness of his strengths and weaknesses.

It also pretty much flies in direct contravention to his own-stated Obama doctrine, at least on that rhetorical level.  Which suggests he's doing it to please some constituency or another.  Maybe Robert Kagan and his gaggle of lunatics. It smacks of the Dauphin and his various bullying attempts...which to be fair, he was good at, when he didn't stumble over the script.  Kagan didn't have many complaints about how Bush Jr did business, so perhaps he also wants to see more backbone from Obama.

[Cain]

Hey, remember when John Kerry said this:

"It is clear that Russian special forces and agents have been the catalysts behind the chaos of the last 24 hours."

Yeah, well, about that...

Secretary of State John Kerry also spent time talking with Mr. Poroshenko, privately urging him to provide evidence of Russian involvement with separatists with which to confront Russian officials.

Foolish Kerry.  Lying like that made Putin, who called out the lie when he first made it, only look like the more honest party here.

In other news, two B-2 stealth bombers have been deployed to RAF Fairford, the first time the bombers have ever been deployed in Europe.  Nothing to do with Ukraine though, of course.  Of course.

[Cain]

Guess who else is in Ukraine?

Only The Fellowship, aka The Family:

Attendee list in Ukrainian includes Doug Burleigh, the son-in-law of Doug Coe, the exceptionally creepy Genghis Khan enthusiast and leader of the Fellowship.

[LMNO]

The fuck?  How the hell do they keep getting invites?


Yeah, I know the answer is most likely Power.  Still.

[Cain]

Cant find a direct link - best bet is invitation via Hamm/Billy Graham Ministries, who are close to Pastor Turchynov, and also present.