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Anybody look at Ukraine lately?

Started by Random Probability, January 23, 2014, 12:35:09 AM

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Cain

Pretty much dead on in regards to Crimea.  I mostly agree with the bit about Eastern Ukraine too, but I think it's a little more complex than that.

I think there are two extra agenda to be considered here.  Firstly, Russia doesn't overtly care about eastern Ukraine.  Yes, it would be nice if the whole region just fell into their laps, but I think they realise that there are a lot of potential consequences there which could be unpleasant.

Instead, they're basically doing this to needle Kiev, and show the new government the costs of denying Russian interests.  It's crass bullying, but often such displays are more effective than, say, lodging a complaint with the UN.  Russia is saying "look what we can do...wouldn't you rather be our friend than our enemy?"

This may also work because Ukraine's finances are in such a dire situation, Russia and Russian proxies will, by default (lol) win any struggle of attrition.  They have deep pockets...Ukraine has 60 billion in debt.

There's also the risk, which has been obscured by painting the uprising in the east as entirely the fault of Russian agitation (because people who oppose the west have no agency), of warlordism on Russia's borders.  Sure, the rebels today are pro-Russian...but five years down the line?  10?  If they can drag out the conflict, which seems quite likely even without Russian support, they can turn the entire Russian/Ukrainian border into a no-man's land, rife with banditry and cross-border assaults, rampaging Ukrainian deathsquads and similar. 

Nothing good can come of that.  By supporting the rebels, they control the rebels, and by doing that they give them a cohesive framework in which to operate, which negates the warlordism threat.

Junkenstein

QuoteThere's also the risk, which has been obscured by painting the uprising in the east as entirely the fault of Russian agitation (because people who oppose the west have no agency), of warlordism on Russia's borders.  Sure, the rebels today are pro-Russian...but five years down the line?  10?  If they can drag out the conflict, which seems quite likely even without Russian support, they can turn the entire Russian/Ukrainian border into a no-man's land, rife with banditry and cross-border assaults, rampaging Ukrainian deathsquads and similar.

I seem to recall a Vice video on Transnistria which in which this is effectively occurring right now. I had assumed that an outside actor had some degree of control over the situation. That said, I can certainty see why having another such place pop up wouldn't do business any good.

Unless your business happened to be arms.

Links for the curious:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria#Military (see this and section below it)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Transnistria
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

Transnistria is a great place to pick up arms without having to fill in tedious paperwork or worry much about the legality of the weapons in question.

That said, Transnistria also doesn't border on Russia's rich agricultural and industrial territory.

Junkenstein

Some HA HA?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29042561

QuoteUkraine's President Petro Poroshenko says he has agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on a "permanent ceasefire" with rebels.

"Their conversation resulted in agreement on a permanent ceasefire in the Donbass region [the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk]," his office said.

The Kremlin said Mr Putin had not agreed to the ceasefire himself as Russia was not party to the conflict.

QuoteThe White House said Mr Obama would use his trip to Estonia, where about 25% are ethnic Russians, to make it clear that it is "not okay for large countries to flagrantly violate the territorial integrity of their smaller neighbours".

These people say this shit with a straight face. There simply isn't enough rope in the world to deal with all of them appropriately.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

Tony Abbott, the Australian PM, was saying much the same.

Note: Abbott served in the Howard government, which certainly never undertook a flagrant violation of a neighbouring state.  It went halfway around the world to do it, instead.

Junkenstein

For what it's worth, I'd make sure there was rope for Abbott.

I'd weave the damn thing personally if required. As far as I can tell the only use for the man is throwing his various quotes into the "Nixon or Bush?" game.

For example, there's these gems:

QuoteI think there does need to be give and take on both sides, and this idea that sex is kind of a woman's right to absolutely withhold, just as the idea that sex is a man's right to demand I think they are both they both need to be moderated, so to speak'

Quote'Climate change is absolute crap'

QuoteSame-sex marriage? I'm not someone who wants to see radical change based on the fashion of the moment.

QuoteJesus didn't say yes to everyone, Jesus knew there was a place for everything and it's not necessarily everyone's (asylum seekers and refugees) place to come to Australia.

There's many, many more. I'm sure he'll dispense sage wisdom on the Ukraine shortly. After all, it's the man who said about syria

Quote"It's not goodies versus baddies, it's baddies versus baddies"

An intellectual giant of our time.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

Even his own party consider him a moron.  He has a particular talent for sticking his foot in his mouth.  And because he's socially quite conservative, the old time Liberal Party members are really not happy with him (Australia's Liberal Party was always finanically rightwing/pro-capitalist/deregulation, but it used to be a lot more "and what do you in your own time is your own business" and less "gays are icky").

Anyway, his comment was almost exactly the same as Obama's.  Word for word in places, and a couple of days before.  The tail doesn't wag the dog, so I wonder if Obama and Abbott are both getting their briefings from someone who used that line (an American thinktank, maybe)?

Junkenstein

I horribly misunderstood you. For some idiot reason I thought you were saying Abbott was saying similar to what I was, not echoing Obama and Co.

That's quite a relief.


I'll still keep rope for Abbott though.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Junkenstein

Latest indicates it's getting nastier while staying quite low-key.

QuoteBloodied, dirty and stinking, the Ukrainian soldiers who passed through the town of Komsomolske on Saturday morning made for a sorry sight. But they were the lucky ones, who had managed to escape alive from an assault they say involved regular units of the Russian army.

Having fled from encirclement in the town of Ilovaysk, their column of 70 armoured vehicles and hundreds of soldiers was ambushed and shelled, according to one soldier. "Our vehicles were colliding with one another and our tracks were running over our own fighters," said Taras Samchuk, 28, whose 51st brigade was one of the units surrounded.

Many died, some were captured, and about 100 soldiers survived, often "with legs broken or smashed, with shrapnel in our hands, legs, bodies, with smashed teeth and broken noses", he said.

Two weeks ago, Ukraine looked as if it was winning its battle against Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, but the tide has turned in recent days, with the encirclement at Ilovaysk a key moment. Samchuk, like many Ukrainian fighters, said there is only one reason for this. Instead of fighting a ragtag group of rebels, the Ukrainians have suddenly found themselves fighting the regular Russian army.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/03/ukraine-soldier-youre-better-clueless-because-truth-horrible-moscow-ilovaysk

Yeah, when the full details on this start becoming clear it's almost certainly going to be bad. "Big pits for all the bodies" bad.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Junkenstein

Unsure to shove this here or in the Syria thread, but it's kind of relevant to both:
http://www.inquisitr.com/1449621/isis-capture-russian-jets-in-syria-tell-vladimir-putin-hes-next/

QuoteIn the video, released online on August 31, the ISIS militants addressed Assad directly, while sitting on a captured Russian jet:

"You'd better watch out Bashar – we're coming for you in planes!. We'll be coming for you from the skies, with these planes, Allah willing. Brace yourself for what's coming, you pig."

Obviously ISIS must really dislike president Assad asit even reverted to petty name calling in the video clip.

ISIS also doesn't seem to like Russian president Vladamir Putin very much as they turned their attention to him, saying:

"Vladimir Putin, these are the Russian planes that you sent to Bashar. Allah willing, we will take them back to your own turf, and liberate Chechnya and the Caucasus, Allah willing... Your throne is being threatened by us."

First impressions is that it seems legit, though obviously far from fucking smart.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

The Good Reverend Roger

Quote from: Junkenstein on September 04, 2014, 03:21:01 PM
Unsure to shove this here or in the Syria thread, but it's kind of relevant to both:
http://www.inquisitr.com/1449621/isis-capture-russian-jets-in-syria-tell-vladimir-putin-hes-next/

QuoteIn the video, released online on August 31, the ISIS militants addressed Assad directly, while sitting on a captured Russian jet:

"You'd better watch out Bashar – we're coming for you in planes!. We'll be coming for you from the skies, with these planes, Allah willing. Brace yourself for what's coming, you pig."

Obviously ISIS must really dislike president Assad asit even reverted to petty name calling in the video clip.

ISIS also doesn't seem to like Russian president Vladamir Putin very much as they turned their attention to him, saying:

"Vladimir Putin, these are the Russian planes that you sent to Bashar. Allah willing, we will take them back to your own turf, and liberate Chechnya and the Caucasus, Allah willing... Your throne is being threatened by us."

First impressions is that it seems legit, though obviously far from fucking smart.

Well, at least they're serious about having a good time.
" It's just that Depeche Mode were a bunch of optimistic loveburgers."
- TGRR, shaming himself forever, 7/8/2017

"Billy, when I say that ethics is our number one priority and safety is also our number one priority, you should take that to mean exactly what I said. Also quality. That's our number one priority as well. Don't look at me that way, you're in the corporate world now and this is how it works."
- TGRR, raising the bar at work.

Cain

Unfortunately for ISIS, the Caucasus Emirate has nothing nice to say about them.  The CE are much more opposed to suicide bombings and attacks on non-military targets, and additionally they dislike that some Chechen and Dagestani fighters are part of ISIS's ranks.  They would much prefer a unified Caucasian Syrian Front, under the Emirate's overall command.

Which means they basically have no assets or friends in Russia.  Additionally, the Emirate's leadership have close and personal contacts with Zawahiri, and so are not willing to turn their back on Al-Qaeda just because Islamic State are the flavour of the month.

Not to mention Putin is also serious about a good time.  I think the fate of Shamil Basayev is important to keep in mind here.

Cain

Daily reminder: there are no Neo-Nazis in Ukraine.  At all.



This is the Azov Battalion...who, perhaps amusingly, are funded by a Ukrainian-Israeli billionaire

According to the battalion's leader in 2010, his philosophy is that " "From the mass of individuals must arise the Nation; and from weak modern man, Superman... The historic mission of our Nation in this watershed century is to lead the White Races of the world in the final crusade for their survival: a crusade against semite-led subhumanity... The task of the present generation is to create a Third Empire -- Great Ukraine... If we are strong, we take what is ours by right and even more; we will build a Superpower-Empire...".

Mesozoic Mister Nigel

Quote from: Cain on February 10, 2015, 01:35:52 PM
Daily reminder: there are no Neo-Nazis in Ukraine.  At all.



This is the Azov Battalion...who, perhaps amusingly, are funded by a Ukrainian-Israeli billionaire

According to the battalion's leader in 2010, his philosophy is that " "From the mass of individuals must arise the Nation; and from weak modern man, Superman... The historic mission of our Nation in this watershed century is to lead the White Races of the world in the final crusade for their survival: a crusade against semite-led subhumanity... The task of the present generation is to create a Third Empire -- Great Ukraine... If we are strong, we take what is ours by right and even more; we will build a Superpower-Empire...".

So, a self-hating Jew is funding a battalion of Ukranian neo-Nazi trash?

What could go wrong?
"I'm guessing it was January 2007, a meeting in Bethesda, we got a bag of bees and just started smashing them on the desk," Charles Wick said. "It was very complicated."


Junkenstein

Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.