Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.

[LMNO]

It still bewilders me that someone can be undecided at this point.

[Cain]

Clinton's got 20+ years of baggage that even reputed "liberal" publications (NYT etc) give an unusual amount of credence to.  Meanwhile, Trump is a better fit for the Constitution Party than the Republicans, many of whom hate Clinton like poison.

Not to mention butthurt Berners, people living in obvious blue/red states where individual votes probably won't matter etc.

[LMNO]

Well sure, but the lines are drawn.  Unless "undecided" means "I'm probably not going to vote for either", I really don't see someone unsure of who they prefer at this point.

[Junkenstein]

Well sure, but the lines are drawn.  Unless "undecided" means "I'm probably not going to vote for either", I really don't see someone unsure of who they prefer at this point.

It should be noted that the terms "smart", "well informed" and "sensible" are ones that I never use when talking about any electorate population. You can't even trust people to vote in their own self interest half the time.

[Cain]

"I don't really follow the news and I keep hearing Trump say horrible things about Mexicans and stuff...but then I hear Hillary is corrupt and stuff about her emails being hacked..."

Remember, only 50-60% of the public reliably vote in elections at all.  People who aren't engaged, who only skim headlines or catch the half-hourly roundup at 6pm on CNN, who don't talk about politics on Facebook or debate political news online, are basically getting a barrage of clickbaity and misleading bullshit all day long, and chances are they know it's bullshit in some way or another, but that doesn't help when you have little frame of reference for politics in the first place.

This election has seen an exceptional amount of bullshit and an exceptional amount of social media driven, epistemic-closure style political warfare.  Curated feeds, disinformation (possibly being perpetuated by nation-states), standard political ratfuckery, people attempting to be as sensationalist as possible to get that advertising revenue...it's a bad mix.

[LMNO]

Fuck it, imma move to Iceland.

[Faust]

Fuck it, imma move to Iceland.

That's a much better choice than the "I'm moving to Canada" I've been seeing a lot of, in fact its a good plan regardless of what else is going on in the world. Valhalla I am coming.

[Faust]

Ok say we get the October surprise, served steaming on a plate from Putin by way of Assange or others, what are the chances the Democrats can pull something similar out of their ass, and if so, could it have any impact either way, is there any debasement of Trumps that he hasn't already flaunted himself left to use?

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Fuck it, imma move to Iceland.

Gonna moonwalk on the smoking ruins like Scipio.

[Junkenstein]

Ok say we get the October surprise, served steaming on a plate from Putin by way of Assange or others, what are the chances the Democrats can pull something similar out of their ass, and if so, could it have any impact either way, is there any debasement of Trumps that he hasn't already flaunted himself left to use?

It would depend on how big the remaining warchest is and how much effort they're going to put into attack ads. However you could release a picture tomorrow of Trump in a room with a dead girl and live boy and he'll still get 30-odd% of the vote regardless.

[Cain]

Ok say we get the October surprise, served steaming on a plate from Putin by way of Assange or others, what are the chances the Democrats can pull something similar out of their ass, and if so, could it have any impact either way, is there any debasement of Trumps that he hasn't already flaunted himself left to use?

It would depend on how big the remaining warchest is and how much effort they're going to put into attack ads. However you could release a picture tomorrow of Trump in a room with a dead girl and live boy and he'll still get 30-odd% of the vote regardless.

That's the way I see it.

The impending court issues regarding Epstein and sex slaves would be helpful...but Bill Clinton also flew on Epstein's personal plane and went to his island (Clinton is not named in any of the witness statements...but it's a sufficiently close relationship to the muddy the waters and with the rumours of rape and Bill Clinton, could do more harm than good).

I suspect if anything they'll go for mob connections, or something on his accounts.  But either way, I don't see it making as big a difference.

[Junkenstein]

Crime connections cut both ways, so I'm guessing that gets avoided.

My money's on his (lack) of money. Shout about how skint he is until he releases records and then dig through them for dirt or use lack of disclosure as a kicking point.

Problems Clinton's campaign has is they're used to dealing with rational opponent. Trump has no real platform or policies so difficult to attack there.

Also not ruling out Putin leaking something tasty to Clinton so she starts in office owing a favour or two.

[Cain]

TBH I don't think the Russians care as much as who gets into power as they do about creating generalised chaos in the US political system.

That Trump is pro-Russia on a few issues is a nice bonus, but I think they'd just rather create the perception of a rigged election, in any direction, then sit back and let the US political system paralyse itself.  This is the assumption most intelligence services are working from as well, with a couple of exceptions.

Interestingly, someone in London wants some Russia experts, ASAP.  Paying up to £250 a day, knowledge of Russian policy, economics and language necessary prereqs.  All done via the usual exclusive end recruitment firms, so names aren't named.  Maybe that May is serious about trade deals with Russia...or could be the Americans are making their Russia investigation a joint NATO effort.

[Junkenstein]

This was my thinking. Why not help Clinton out of a hole with a handy tip or two. 40 odd % of the country will hate whoever wins and Clinton's still the more stable option for Putin. Favour in the pocket is a bonus and you still achieve disruptive goals.

And 250/day seems very low for that skill set. Suspiciously low.

[Cain]

That is £1250 a week.  I can't remember the contract length, but it was at least a few months, I think.