Calling it now: Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

I would actively oppose any voter intimidation or discouragement that happened in front of me.

But that doesn't mean I'm gonna drive a busload of Trump voters to the polls.

[Junkenstein]

Ongoing shitshow part 335197/E:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37685909

Melania Trump has insisted that her husband is a "gentleman" and that the women who allege that he sexually assaulted them are lying.

That's going to be embarrassing soon.

Speaking for the first since the scandal began, Mrs Trump defended her husband's conduct with women, saying he had never behaved inappropriately over the years.

Stop laughing.

Now she believes Billy Bush, who was fired by NBC over the tape, was the main culprit.
Mr Trump, she said, "was led on - like, egged on - from the host to say dirty and bad stuff".

Stop it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37641814

At this rate, we should be into Cosby territory by the end of the week. And that really isn't funny or unlikely.

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

Yeah, Trump really seems hell-bent on plunging headlong into a crash-and-burn scenario.

[MithridatesXXIII]

Yeah, Trump really seems hell-bent on plunging headlong into a crash-and-burn scenario.

His campaign is definitely aflame, but will we ever witness the crash? It just seems like the "Trump Train" is crashing more and more slowly as time goes on. As if it were approaching the event horizon of a black hole.

I don't expect anything surprising to happen at the upcoming debate. There's a surplus of rope made already. And might I add, it's quite fitting the last debate is in Vegas, a metaphor and actual microcosm of the entire political process which only becomes more apt the more you examine it.

[Junkenstein]

Hey Cain,

What's your take on the Assange internet situation?

My current favourite bets are on one or a combination of:

A - Ecuador knows trump will fuck things while Clinton will maintain them so it's an attempt to slow the leaks before anything seriously damaging comes out. As of the 9th, normal service resumed.

B - Direct/Indirect pressure from the US

C - Putin, somehow. 

D - The embassy staff are finally just sick of him and figure he'll fuck off if he has no access for a few weeks.

E - There's an embarrassing Clinton/Ecuador exchange that's not been released yet and they're trying to avoid that seeing daylight.



In other news, trump is apparently being sued (yes, again) by a group of kids that performed at one of his rallies and never got paid. Which is a shock. Expect a press release in a day or two about how he knows more than kids about patriotic singing and dancing, they were terrible and deserve not to be paid as they've had more than ample compensation in exposure etc. etc. You know the drill. No-one's a better 9 year old girl than trump. In fact, I'm pretty sure he's THE BEST 9 year old girl in politics and he'll tell you so himself shortly.

[Cain]

Trump's going all in on "the election is rigged", and quite frankly, the DNC's inability to even spin their bullshit in a positive way ("we exist to stop Trump's taking over the Democrats") is a significant contributory factor to the whole mess.

I'm predicting violence post election.  I'm also predicting an energised militia movement, well beyond what we saw in the 1990s.  I'm predicting a GOP civil war in which groups and individuals connected or sympathetic to such people are victorious.  Russian response hard to say, but "continued fuckery of a general kind" is a safe bet.  Actual existentsial threats (climate change, nuclear proliferation) will continued to be ignored.  Syria will continue to be a metasizing cancer, threatening more direct conflict between NATO and Russia, in addition to generalised terrorism issue (especially as ISIS continues and foreign fighters flee back to Europe - yes, I see you, you little jihadi wannabe bitches).  I'm predicting an uptick in Russian involvement in European far-right politics - Brexit will give motivation to NF in France, AfD and others who rely on Russian patrons to keep the bills paid.

Note: I'm writing this up on some fucking terrible whiskey, but these are probabilities I've been considering for a while, which is why the whiskey is a factor, rather than influencing the analysis itself.  Got to look at the situation from the perspective of the alt-right, and Russia.  If the alt-right succeed in a coup within the Republican Party, then you have an explicitly white nationalist ideology commanding a major party of a western power.  That's not the Presidency, sure, thank god, but it's nevertheless a win, given the US duopoly.  Unless US oligarchs smarten the fuck up, they're going to be played, especially if they see the alt-right as an insurgent movement they can use to advance the most radical parts of their agenda (just like Prussian nationalists and the Nazis - radical nationalists will always eventually slip the leash, set their own agenda.  Populist movement can take better advantage of changing conditions on the ground without due consideration of elite interests).

Russia aims generally for political chaos.  Mistake to consider ideological premise behind that...there is a certain affinity of course, but geopolitical considerations trump (lol) ideological ones every day.  Force split between US and NATO allies in Europe.  Chief aim is contest American littoral access to Baltic-foolish in and of itself, hence the lack of assistance to ethnic Russian enclaves in those areas.  Instead, decry American imperialism in UK/Germany/France/Spain/Italy and drive interests between western and eastern Europe in the Cold War sense of the term.  Why stick necks out for Latvians/Lithuanians/Poles?  Drive dvisions through xenophobic political parties but use refugee crisis as ostensible cause (cannot trust Arabs > cannot trust other Europeans, even historical alliances.  Must be prepared to stand alone...even though it fucks up NATO military doctrine where US provides the manpower and money, and European allies field specialised, auxiliary forces).  All military action must be painted as American meddling, even when it is in response to Russian meddling.  Heighten the contradictions, not for "the revolution" but for chaos which allows Russia to advance it's own interest.  Of course America has own interests in Europe, but far closer aligned to European values/liberal democracy than Ruissia.

Either way, America has no central ground to rally on.  Positions would be not much different if reversed ie; Chinese support of Democrats in election.  Nevertheless, unlike Russia, China is a status quo power, not interested (at least atm) in rewriting fundamental rules of international system.

[MithridatesXXIII]

The GOP's adoption of the alt-right is probably going to be contingent on the numbers we get after the election. I'm inclined to believe they won't be spectacular, meaning the alt-right probably can't provide the base necessary for an alt-right takeover of the party.

Sure records are going to be broken in terms of voter turnout, but that will most likely benefit the Democrats. Not to say the alt-right will have no voice in the future, but I think everyone jumping on the Trump train were looking forward to an era of unprecedented freedom of movement around and through an incompetent Trump administration. What will happen to those who bet wrong I can only guess.

[Cain]

That's my hope, but I fear that the Republican Party has already been far too accomodating of the far-right, and though Trump will lose the election, it's not clear how his supporters within the party will respond.  Trump is painting Republican critics as an out of touch elite (which, to be fair, they are), and Trumpism has proven to be remarkably durable within the party.  A clever organiser would cement the Trump campaign's links with the Tea Party movements that rallied to his support and adopt their tactics against entrenched Republican establishment figures.  Even if Trump himself flees the country and swears off social media for the rest of his life, Trumpism could be made into a powerful in-party force.

In fact, I'd argue with Trump's erratic behaviour, personal history and inability to take advice from PR people gone, his supporters would actually be much more effective.  Trump himself is a liability.

They may lose subsequent elections, but the damage will be done.

[MithridatesXXIII]

You raise excellent points. I'm a little more pessimistic about the capacity of the people to organize and mobilize. Once Trump meets his demise on the 8th so will the glue of this cult of personality. Platforms like breitbart which are largely sustaining this movement are going to dry up, not completely (as a business) , but in a major way as far as providing content for legions of shit posters. They're going to need a champion yesterday. No one exists with that kind of charisma. I expect violence as well, but I expect the media to do its part to shut down its coverage of it. Alt-right neckbeards will decry conspiratorial suppression of the zeitgeist by the MSM. That's about it I guess. A grand puttering out.

And also, a grand upgrade of dogwhistle software. They needed a pioneer to blaze a trail into the bowels of LCD-land.

[NeonWytch]

You raise excellent points. I'm a little more pessimistic about the capacity of the people to organize and mobilize. Once Trump meets his demise on the 8th so will the glue of this cult of personality. Platforms like breitbart which are largely sustaining this movement are going to dry up, not completely (as a business) , but in a major way as far as providing content for legions of shit posters. They're going to need a champion yesterday. No one exists with that kind of charisma. I expect violence as well, but I expect the media to do its part to shut down its coverage of it. Alt-right neckbeards will decry conspiratorial suppression of the zeitgeist by the MSM. That's about it I guess. A grand puttering out.

The alt-right has existed before trump, and I don't think it's even grown all that much.
I think they've just become more bold as their greasy, wrinkled, pungent underbelly has been peeled up and shown glimmering wetly in the light. Now, whether they'll creep back into the darkness is up for debate, but they'll always be there, and they'll always have influence as long as Fox is willing to source from breitbart and infowars and all of their buddies.

I think that they've already started normalization. Even if Trump disappears, every Trump supporter is now known as a Trump supporter. Their twitters are forever garnished with "Make America Great Again"s. You can't go back from that. They've probably lost friends and strained relationships by supporting Trump. If Trump doesn't win, then all that fighting and defending and yelling was for nothing, so they're going to keep yelling with their new yell-y friends. 

[MithridatesXXIII]

That's fair, but I don't think they are nearly entrenched enough (power-wise) to claim normalization, that's what a Trump admin would provide the fledgling rudiments for. A huge part of their identity is being part of the fringe. They delight in it.

[Prelate Diogenes Shandor]

but they'll always be there, and they'll always have influence as long as Fox is willing to source from breitbart and infowars and all of their buddies. 

Wait. Fox gets their information from somewhere? It isn't internally generated?

[Cain]

Looks like Roger Stone, at the very least, is going all in on the "the election is rigged" approach to November.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/20/citizens-for-donald-trump-exit-poll-roger-stone-rigged-election-claim

Donald Trump loyalists will attempt to conduct their own crowd-funded exit polling on election day, ostensibly due to fears that electronic voting machines in certain areas may have been "rigged", the Guardian has learned.

But the effort, led by Trump's notorious informal adviser Roger Stone, will focus on 600 different precincts in nine Democrat-leaning cities with large minority populations, a tactic branded highly irregular by experts, who suggested that organizers could potentially use the polling as a way to intimidate voters.

Given Stone's involvement in the "Brook Brothers Riot", fears of voter intimidation are not completely unfounded.

[NeonWytch]

but they'll always be there, and they'll always have influence as long as Fox is willing to source from breitbart and infowars and all of their buddies. 

Wait. Fox gets their information from somewhere? It isn't internally generated?

Fox has always sourced from the alt-right's chunky spew and diluted it with stagnant mosquito infested pot-hole water to create a repugnant but watery slurry thin enough that their old white audience doesn't need to chew, but viscous enough that they won't choke on it.

[minuspace]

Last time I went in for routine de-scaling, according to the Infernal Act of Universal Suffering, the on site dermatologist said they also had to test my galvanic skin response.  I figured this was per the continuation clause of IAUS, to ensure that the efficacy of their methods persist.  No, it's that the act only covers a fraction of their cost, so they have to make up additional procedures.  Meanwhile, premiums keep on going up and brokerage firms are enlisted to massively undersell policies backed by the central infernal comity.  Then we watch that Trump candidate on your screen TV  debate for president, and then maybe hell not look so bad, eh.