Author Topic: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!  (Read 116 times)

Doktor Howl

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Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
« on: Yesterday at 03:53:29 pm »
So this happened.

https://www.apnews.com/3c3ce6a941f5489eaa778ccc5db2437c

Quote
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Global energy prices spiked Monday by a percentage unseen since the 1991 Gulf War after a weekend attack on key oil facilities in Saudi Arabia caused the worst disruption to world supplies on record, further fueling heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S.

American officials released satellite images of the damage at the heart of the kingdom’s crucial Abqaiq oil processing plant and a key oil field, alleging the pattern of destruction suggested Saturday’s attack came from either Iraq or Iran — rather than Yemen, as claimed by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels there. A Saudi military spokesman later made the same accusation, alleging “Iranian weapons” had been used in the assault.

Iran rejected the allegations, with a government spokesman saying now there was “absolutely no chance” of a hoped-for meeting between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and President Donald Trump at the U.N. General Assembly next week.

For his part, Trump sent mixed signals, saying his “locked and loaded” government waited for Saudi confirmation of Iran being behind the attack while later tweeting that the U.S. didn’t need Mideast oil, “but will help our Allies!”

(more at link, pics of damage at link)
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Fujikoma

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Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
« Reply #1 on: Yesterday at 04:42:12 pm »
These guys are not going to play nice if we try anything dicey with them. This isn't ISIS or Al Quida, these guys know where our balls are and this is a warning shot.

Doktor Howl

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Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
« Reply #2 on: Yesterday at 05:07:44 pm »
These guys are not going to play nice if we try anything dicey with them. This isn't ISIS or Al Quida, these guys know where our balls are and this is a warning shot.

This wasn't a warning shot.  This attack did more damage to the oil market than anything since Desert Storm.
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Cain

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Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
« Reply #3 on: Yesterday at 05:31:01 pm »
The US reaction told Iran it hit a nerve. By punting on the decision itself, it puts Saudi Arabia in the awkward position of having to request it (and given Trump's transactional approach to alliances, he'd likely ask for money as well), suggesting the US has no appetite for a fight.

There's also some evidence to suggest this wasn't a drone attack, but a precision missile attack.

Doktor Howl

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Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
« Reply #4 on: Yesterday at 06:22:58 pm »
The US reaction told Iran it hit a nerve. By punting on the decision itself, it puts Saudi Arabia in the awkward position of having to request it (and given Trump's transactional approach to alliances, he'd likely ask for money as well), suggesting the US has no appetite for a fight.

There's also some evidence to suggest this wasn't a drone attack, but a precision missile attack.

Would the difference be significant?
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Cain

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Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
« Reply #5 on: Yesterday at 06:51:27 pm »
Possibly, I'm not a weapons systems guy so I don't want to say for sure, but the attack was extremely precise, hitting exactly the targeted areas it needed to and nothing else. That kind of precision targeting would be expected from a drone with on-board CCTV, where the pilot can easily correct, but for a surface-to-surface missile it says they have access to some sophisticated targeting systems in addition to intelligence on the facility layout.

Doktor Howl

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Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
« Reply #6 on: Yesterday at 07:11:38 pm »
Possibly, I'm not a weapons systems guy so I don't want to say for sure, but the attack was extremely precise, hitting exactly the targeted areas it needed to and nothing else. That kind of precision targeting would be expected from a drone with on-board CCTV, where the pilot can easily correct, but for a surface-to-surface missile it says they have access to some sophisticated targeting systems in addition to intelligence on the facility layout.

Well, the Iranians are no slouches when it comes to missile technology.  And it's not like the Russians wouldn't slip them some stuff under the table.  Or even over the table.

And this all assumes that Iran had anything to do with it.  They deny it, and a Yemeni group is saying they did it (although they seem to be backed by Iran).
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Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
« Reply #7 on: Yesterday at 07:28:38 pm »
Well, the whole Houthi/Iran thing is overblown anyway. Yes, there's elements of support and sympathy, but it's very low key and mostly brought up to suggest the Houthis are not a legitimate political force in Yemen, which they absolutely are.

Iran does have short-range precision missiles, but we're talking the kind of ranges where they would have to be fired from inside Iraq to hit Saudi Arabia, and even then it'd be a stretch. If they did do that, it would implicate the Iranian-aligned elements of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, the government-backed militias who fought ISIS and subsequently were rolled into the Iraqi security structure.

Which would mean another Iraqi civil war. KSA and the USA would tell them to stand down and lean on the Iraqi government to make it happen, but the PMF are popular because they did fight ISIS...and that would be on top of any Iranian conflict.

And if they launched the missile from Iran itself, then someone has been upgrading their missiles from earlier on this year. Which means someone has been naughty. I'm not so sure Russia would provide Iran with advanced missile technology...I never got the impression that Russia fully trusted Iran that closely and the S-300 system was already a significant gift to Tehran.

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Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
« Reply #8 on: Yesterday at 07:45:31 pm »
I'm not saying they didn't, btw, and China would be another obvious culprit, but it would be a significant upgrade on where they were six months ago.