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UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?

Started by Vanadium Gryllz, February 23, 2016, 02:54:34 PM

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Doktor Howl

Quote from: Faust on October 08, 2018, 09:39:37 PM


My company trades in both jurisdictions, there is no outcome where we don't suffer because of all this.

How bad?
Molon Lube

Cain

Coming so soon after the EU was praising tentative progress in the talks, there is no way this won't be seen as a deliberate snub.  No wonder Germany seems to have washed its hands of the negotiations of late - the UK is being by turns arrogant, petulant and self-destructive.  I'd stay as far away from that as possible too.

It's also going to make any future trade deals much more difficult, promises from Japan nonwithstanding.  We made that deal already about the payments, reneging on it would have the Big Three credit ratings agencies trashing us as an unsafe business environment for the next decade - driving up the cost of what is already irresponsible borrowing by the Tories even further, whilst going through a probable recession. 

Doktor Howl

Quote from: Cain on October 08, 2018, 11:09:50 PM
Coming so soon after the EU was praising tentative progress in the talks, there is no way this won't be seen as a deliberate snub.  No wonder Germany seems to have washed its hands of the negotiations of late - the UK is being by turns arrogant, petulant and self-destructive.  I'd stay as far away from that as possible too.

It's also going to make any future trade deals much more difficult, promises from Japan nonwithstanding.  We made that deal already about the payments, reneging on it would have the Big Three credit ratings agencies trashing us as an unsafe business environment for the next decade - driving up the cost of what is already irresponsible borrowing by the Tories even further, whilst going through a probable recession.

Question:  How fucked is Europe if the UK's banking system is sequestered?  I mean, is there ANY downside for Europe for just saying "Fuck you guys"?
Molon Lube

Cain

Well, a lot of the banks are already moving out to Frankfurt or Dublin for their new European headquarters, with quite a few corporations heading to Amsterdam for the low taxes.

The UK has suffered a trade deficit with Europe for years, because the UK economy is primarily geared towards the service economy, which doesn't usually have an overseas component, whereas France and Germany are in the business of producing goods.  And what the EU does sell in the UK is worth far less to their economies than our trade with Europe is worth to ours.

Faust

Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 08, 2018, 10:07:17 PM
Quote from: Faust on October 08, 2018, 09:39:37 PM


My company trades in both jurisdictions, there is no outcome where we don't suffer because of all this.

How bad?
In what is currently the best case scenario our equipment and install costs go up 20 percent and our profits go down anywhere between 0-20 as well, and thats not accounting for downturns in sales due to hesitation about markets etc.
Its anywhere between a bump in the road to swallowing the car.
Sleepless nights at the chateau

Faust

Europes biggest exposure having centralised a lot of banking in the UK is the clearing houses but if anything goes wrong there you are talking about over exposed banks and brexit becomes a worldwide problem akin to lehaman bros in 2008. We'll find out whats happening with those in november, they aren't wating around till march, they are deciding what to do then.
Sleepless nights at the chateau

Doktor Howl

Quote from: Faust on October 09, 2018, 03:38:14 AM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 08, 2018, 10:07:17 PM
Quote from: Faust on October 08, 2018, 09:39:37 PM


My company trades in both jurisdictions, there is no outcome where we don't suffer because of all this.

How bad?
In what is currently the best case scenario our equipment and install costs go up 20 percent and our profits go down anywhere between 0-20 as well, and thats not accounting for downturns in sales due to hesitation about markets etc.
Its anywhere between a bump in the road to swallowing the car.

Ouch.
Molon Lube

Cain


Faust

18 Percent are happy to leave the EU with no deal and 17 percent wouldn't mind. Which is in line with the 35 percent Brexit at any cost.

I'm going to assume that 35% of the population are not stupid and are in on some secret contingency plan, the only thing that currently makes sense is the UK has managed to develop some kind of jets to allow it to become a flying fortress Britannia to rival Bioshocks Columbia, and is able to trade with or pillage from whatever nation it requires, because if not this, then there is no explanation what these people want.
Sleepless nights at the chateau

Doktor Howl

Quote from: Faust on October 09, 2018, 05:19:52 PM
18 Percent are happy to leave the EU with no deal and 17 percent wouldn't mind. Which is in line with the 35 percent Brexit at any cost.

I'm going to assume that 35% of the population are not stupid and are in on some secret contingency plan, the only thing that currently makes sense is the UK has managed to develop some kind of jets to allow it to become a flying fortress Britannia to rival Bioshocks Columbia, and is able to trade with or pillage from whatever nation it requires, because if not this, then there is no explanation what these people want.

You are assuming rationality for some reason.
Molon Lube

Cain

Fortunately, that's the one thing a majority of people can actually agree on with regards to Brexit, that it would be a really bad idea.

Not that it matters, since we're not going to have another election in the next six months, so good luck getting your voice heard.

Cain

This is all perfectly normal:

QuotePlans for the mass slaughter of sheep mid-transit are being discussed by Whitehall officials should ports be closed in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Sensitive discussions about what to do with livestock if there are days of delays or closures at ports such as Dover are under way in No 10 and government departments.

Mandarins are considering extreme contingency scenarios, which they know are likely to be dismissed as "project fear" by some MPs and members of the public. Nevertheless they also worry that failure to plan for certain outcomes, however unlikely, would lead to significant criticism if they were found to have underestimated the scale of the challenge.

Faust

That would stop the migrants walking the channel tunnel I guess, if it were to be stuffed with rotting meat.
Sleepless nights at the chateau

Cain

We could also use the rotting meat to pelt DUP members with

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45806063

QuoteThe Democratic Unionist Party's 10 Westminster MPs are planning to vote down the Budget later this month if they are unhappy about the government's Brexit plans, the BBC understands.

Theresa May relies on DUP support in key votes because she does not have a majority in the House of Commons.

But the DUP could abandon this deal if Brexit means new barriers between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, Newsnight's Nick Watt said.

Faust

A country of 65 Million people held to ransom by 10 holdovers from the cretaceous period.

The EU have asked for confirmation of the NI issue for next weeks summit so the DUP are basically saying, if you throw us under the bus we collapse the GOV.
Labour aren't any more likely to get anything through, but Corbyn is mad enough to have a border poll in NI (and Scotland) to try and sort out the issue.  Neither May or Cameron want to be the ones to break up the UK, I dont think Corbyn would have any issue with it.
Sleepless nights at the chateau