UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?

[Mesozoic Mister Nigel]

When the pig orgasms.

My god, man. The imagery is perfect.

[Junkenstein]

Hey Cain, What's your take on the IDS resignation? My inital reaction was that he had shares in Pepsi and/or it's actually a backhanded EU shot. Despite how it's being played as him "quitting over the disability cuts" a lot of his statements don't really make that explicit and I suspect it's just a useful excuse for him. Hell, given his level of incompetence, it may just be a "quit before anyone notices how fucked shit is" move.

In any event, I suspect fuckery is afoot. For reference for those not from round these parts, this is a chap that is not known for his sympathetic attitudes to disabled people or poverty.

Here's a nice run down of his record up to Jan '14. I doubt the past year-ish has seen him do much better.

http://www.greenbenchesuk.com/2014/01/the-cost-of-ids-100-ways-iain-duncan.html

While some is questionable to relate directly to him, it's nice that it's all cited.

[MMIX]

Beware the I D S of March
MMIX
disabled, poor

[Cain]

Lots of people think he's angling for HomeSec in a Boris Johnson government.  Which he likely is.

I actually think it's sorta legit, too.  IDS has always been one of those moralizing, neo-Victorian types, who actually does have something of a moral sense...his economic understanding of how to solve the issues of poverty are terrible and bound up in a whole bunch of moral nonsense, but he does actually have some basic human compassion and despite completely fucking it up, he does want to help people.  He's not alone, even on the right, in thinking these cuts are completely unjustifiable.

He may also be thinking long term.  Going this hard, against a group which, as he admitted, "don't vote Tory" will provoke a backlash.  Just imagine if, say, a PM Corbyn used the complete lack of empathy on display here to justify similar punitive measures against core Tory demographics.  Even in politics, there are unspoken rules and recognised red lines.  One can certainly punish and whip the other side's supporters to a degree...but without limits, the whole thing falls apart.

[Junkenstein]

Lots of people think he's angling for HomeSec in a Boris Johnson government.  Which he likely is.

Gods, that's a horrific concept. Quitting now for a potential future job does seem like a possible move though I hope it turns out to be a poor decision.

The shape of the tory party in general post EU referendum is probably going to be grim in either event. Whichever way it goes, extremists will get rewarded by a shiny new leader.


Gods, imagine it. Boris talking to Trump about anything. The shape of politics in 2017 is idiots wearing wigs screaming about the need for big walls.   

[Cain]

That's what is going to happen.  Especially if Brexit happens, but possibly even if it doesn't.

Cameron blatantly wants to appoint George Osbourne as his successor, but the party won't play ball, and Osbourne's acumen as the strategic visionary of the Tory Party is...somewhat questionable.  With so many of the Cabinet defecting from the PM's own position on Europe, he's looking especially weak and unpersuasive.  Gove, IDS, Grayling, Whittingdale, Patel...throw in an assortment of backbenches and you practically have the next Tory cabinet already formed.

And Boris of course intends to use Brexit to solidify his position as the backbencher's favourite.

So the future indeed seems to involve a lot of bad hair.  Ah well, at least there's Justin Trudeau:



nevermind.

[Junkenstein]

Gove, IDS, Grayling, Whittingdale, Patel...throw in an assortment of backbenches and you practically have the next Tory cabinet already formed.

Considering the possible shape of things in the next 18-ish months, I can't dismiss that as the horror story I would like to. Again, it's worse when you realise the probable alternative is the missing names of the current cabinet so it's a bleak outlook in either event.

I'm actually struggling to decide which would be worse. Incompetent evil or ideological evil?

I suspect Boris may be the slightly worse option as his ADD will put him in front of cameras and awkward social situations more frequently. This will lead to a media glut of "Look at boris being boris. Forget that he used to be a "Have I got news for you" punchline please". Osbourne seems more likely to just try and get the day over with as quickly as possible with as little fuss and attention as possible so he can get back to his pile of crack.

I should note that the last sentence may be inaccurate. It may be a "heap" or "bag" of crack, depends when his dealer was last visiting.

[Junkenstein]

Somewhat relevant:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/05/iain-duncan-smith-wept-tv-interview-ian-hislop-workers-or-shirkers

In the programme, to be aired this Thursday, Duncan Smith’s voice quivers and his eyes fill with tears when he talks about meeting a 19-year-old single mother who had given up hope of work. Saying that she reminded him of his daughter, he says: “I’m sorry I’m quite emotional about these ... 19-years-old ... My aspiration for my daughter was boundless. And here I’m sitting with a 19-year-old girl who had written off her life and had no aspiration and no self-worth. She was a product of a system.”

Asked whether he tried to comfort Duncan Smith, Hislop said: “No, I just watched him cry. We’re sitting in the Department for Work and Pensions talking about his desire to increase the lot of those without any privileges or start in life and he starts welling up.”

I can't dismiss acting, but either way it's always nice when a pillar of the system points out that it's actually the fucking system that is causing problems.

[Cain]

So, just over 3 weeks to the referendum and everything is looking like shit.

About the only person who seems intent on having an actual debate on the EU is Gary Younge...and he had to steelman several Leave arguments to do so.  The Remain camp are no better...yes, lots of people who want to vote to exit are racist, but pointing out they're racist isn't going to shame them into voting the way you want.

The polls suggest the Leave campaign has a slight lead.  That could change...but indications are worrying.  The EU is already preparing retaliatory measures for any stupid post-Brexit UK policies (see the Dutch comments today re: immigration.  Note Holland has traditionally been something of an ally of the UK in the EU) and the economic and political fallout could be immense.

[Cain]

And to add to the fun, Donald Trump has announced he will be visiting the UK on June 24th, when the results are declared 

[LMNO]

From what I can tell, leaving would totally fuck England's economy, wouldn't it?

[Cain]

Well, depending on who you talk to, yes and no.  Some projections have the sky falling in, others say we will somehow be able to negotiate even better deals outside of the EU, despite having less leverage.

A lot will depend on exactly how stupid we want to be in negotiations with the EU, as they are our major trading partner.  I think it would be fair to say that, in the short term at the very least there will be some sharp shocks.

[Cain]

Oh, because an EU exit would result in a likely vote of no-confidence in the government, our next government could end up being led by Boris Johnson.

That's also a factor to consider.

[Faust]

My Scottish friends are all saying they will be there to voting out of spite for staying in the EU and should the UK leave they would demand the right to remain in the EU Even if England and wales left. Could something like this break up the Union? They are talking about borders in Northern Ireland again.

Years from now school children will be visiting David Cameron’s grave to read the inscription "Here lies the man who killed the last lingering remnants of the British Empire, he also fucked a pig"

[Cain]

It definitely could, yes.

This was an insane, stupid gamble from the very start, which has nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with the splits in the Tory Party and enshrining an English Parliament.  If Cameron wins...he shuts up the Eurosceptics for another 20 years. And if he loses and Scotland/Wales/Northern Ireland all dispute that to the point of ending the Union...the Tory party then has a structural majority in English politics, based on voting patterns over the last century or so, and won't lose any elections in the near future.

Of course, this does mean completely ignoring the national interest in remaining in the EU.  No matter the outcome, pursuing such an insane gamble for such petty party political purposes will cause history to judge him harshly.