UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?

[Junkenstein]

Is this the governmental version of sticking your fingers in your ears and going:
LALALALA

?

It's closer to "Pissing on an electric fence".

The reports have already been made, as has any analysis. Other people (by which we mean foreign untrustworthy people, because they're not from round here, ergo potential members of ISIS) may contradict said reports or disagree with any analysis. Which is unacceptable, obviously.

I highly doubt that May is in this for the long haul, I'm expecting that she puts just enough wheels in motion to keep her own party and UKIP idiots happy and then retires at the next election on a PM's pension. This is a shitshow waiting to start with no-one able to give any idea of an end, or even what the "end" may actually look like.

[Junkenstein]

And apparently the new leader of UKIP will be decided by the best of three falls or a knockout
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37572377

UKIP leadership hopeful Steven Woolfe says he is recovering in hospital after a reported fight at a meeting of the party's MEPs.
The party released a statement from Mr Woolfe from his Strasbourg hospital bed saying he was sitting up having undergone a precautionary brain scan.
UKIP sources said "punches were exchanged" during the row at a party meeting and Mr Woolfe banged his head.
He was taken to hospital two hours later after collapsing, sources said.
UKIP sources said "a rumbustious argument" had taken place at the MEPs' meeting at the European Parliament over whether Mr Woolfe had been talking to the Conservative Party.

BREAKING NEWS UPDATE:

The UKIP MEP involved in an altercation with Steven Woolfe has said he "categorically did not" throw a punch at his colleague.
Mike Hookem acknowledged he and his colleague had a "scuffle" in the European Parliament but insisted that he did not hit him.

....There have been varying descriptions of what happened during what UKIP called an "altercation" and Mr Hookem told BBC Radio Humberside only he and Mr Woolfe knew precisely what went on.

...He said Mr Woolfe had objected to remarks which he made. "He then stood up in front of everybody and said 'if it's that, let's take it outside of the room', I think his words were 'mano a mano'."
"When I walked in he approached me to attack me. He came at me, I defended myself. There were no punches thrown, there was no face slapping, there were no digs, there was nothing," he said.
"It's (what) people in Hull would term 'handbags at dawn'. A bit of a scuffle."

..."I didn't push him. He fell back into that room onto an MEP that was stood just inside that room.

...UKIP donor Arron Banks, an influential figure in the party and ally of Nigel Farage - who is interim leader after Ms James' exit - has expressed his continued support for Mr Woolfe.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37587814

So the book is formally open on what's actually occured. Current favourites are "Tweaked Nipple","boot to the bollocks" and "Pretended to faint/fit for attention and sympathy". The second has my money because:
A- It's UKIP's style
B-Something caused the guy to drop
C-Neither side want the police involved so it's going to be hilarious. 

[Junkenstein]

In economy news:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37587085

The pound was pummelled in the currency markets in Friday Asian trading, with traders blaming concerns over Brexit and a flash crash that hit the market.
The pound fell 6% to $1.1841, the biggest move since the Brexit vote.
Sterling later recovered some of those losses but remained volatile.
Analysts think a news report could have triggered automated trading systems to sell the pound heavily in a short space of time.

...."The big issue for the pound right now is that it has become detached from the economic fundamentals and politics have become king. This is where things will get dangerous for the currency going forward," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index.
"Theresa May's hard-line on Brexit negotiations and her insistence that negotiations will take place in private have only increased uncertainty for the market, with traders left combing news websites for the latest headlines to try and gauge for themselves the state of play between the UK and the EU," she added.

...Analysts at HSBC are forecasting that the pound could fall to $1.10 and could be worth just one euro by the end of next year.

"The argument which is still presented to us - that the UK and EU will resolve their difference and come to an amicable deal - appears a little surreal," said David Bloom, head of foreign exchange research at HSBC.
"It is becoming clear that many European countries will come to the negotiation table looking for political damage limitation rather than economic damage limitation. A lose-lose situation is the inevitable outcome

What, did you expect positive news?

[Cain]

The guy who hit Woolfe is called HOOKEM.  Does there even need to be an investigation?

[The Wizard Joseph]

In economy news:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37587085

The pound was pummelled in the currency markets in Friday Asian trading, with traders blaming concerns over Brexit and a flash crash that hit the market.
The pound fell 6% to $1.1841, the biggest move since the Brexit vote.
Sterling later recovered some of those losses but remained volatile.
Analysts think a news report could have triggered automated trading systems to sell the pound heavily in a short space of time.

...."The big issue for the pound right now is that it has become detached from the economic fundamentals and politics have become king. This is where things will get dangerous for the currency going forward," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index.
"Theresa May's hard-line on Brexit negotiations and her insistence that negotiations will take place in private have only increased uncertainty for the market, with traders left combing news websites for the latest headlines to try and gauge for themselves the state of play between the UK and the EU," she added.

...Analysts at HSBC are forecasting that the pound could fall to $1.10 and could be worth just one euro by the end of next year.

"The argument which is still presented to us - that the UK and EU will resolve their difference and come to an amicable deal - appears a little surreal," said David Bloom, head of foreign exchange research at HSBC.
"It is becoming clear that many European countries will come to the negotiation table looking for political damage limitation rather than economic damage limitation. A lose-lose situation is the inevitable outcome

What, did you expect positive news?

The worse that they behave the more money that all of the existing and new short positions and cats selling currency option contracts make. The actors themselves may not fully understand how it all works, but the checks keep rolling in and their blindly trusted experts assure them they're on the "winning" team. And who could really say otherwise? Buckets of bloody cash speak for themselves.

You are watching a Punch & Judy show while the cr0wn quietly allows the economy to get messily gutted backstage. Good thing economies can't scream and the experts most able to see it would largely just prefer to cash in on the matter.

[Junkenstein]

The second part of the joke is that this apparently may have been caused by trading algorithms that scan for good/bad brexit and pound related news. So after the weekend's papers with headlines like "ARGH!" it would seem reasonable to assume that the cycle will repeat and get worse.

Fun times off the starboard bow. 

[The Wizard Joseph]

The second part of the joke is that this apparently may have been caused by trading algorithms that scan for good/bad brexit and pound related news. So after the weekend's papers with headlines like "ARGH!" it would seem reasonable to assume that the cycle will repeat and get worse.

Fun times off the starboard bow.

Robots AND Pirates for Halloween!

[Cain]

The second part of the joke is that this apparently may have been caused by trading algorithms that scan for good/bad brexit and pound related news. So after the weekend's papers with headlines like "ARGH!" it would seem reasonable to assume that the cycle will repeat and get worse.

Fun times off the starboard bow.

Yup, because that's all they have to go on.  Government's not telling anyone anything, and the EU's not revealing it's hand until Article 50 is triggered either.

Right now everyone's predicting the negotiations will be a lose-lose situation between the two parties, and they're probably right.

[Cain]

Incidentally, both the post-Brexit drop and "pound flash crash" are severe enough to be considered currency crashes, if they persist until next June, as seems likely (loss of over 15% of currency value in a year).

Here's your primer on what happens next: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_crisis

(I actually think, despite being Goldman Sachs, Carney is a fairly adept leader for the Bank of England, cautious but willing to take pre-emptive action when required.  This may not be enough, but it could offset the worst of it).

[Junkenstein]

If he's still around at that stage it will be interesting to see what he tries. The way things are at the moment it's fairly possible he may quit/resign/other before the day of article 50. Will also be worth seeing if end of March date holds as that will indicate a lot and cause a shitstorm politically and financially either way.

[Cain]

May's stupid enough to do it.

A vote on the terms of our EU exit is, apparently, not on the cards. Not a referendum, and not even a Parliamentary vote. So an undemocratically elected government is going to push forward an undemocratic terms of exit based on a 4% referendum mandate and votes cast in 2015. 

Given an Act of Parliament may be required to leave the EU, this could very well trigger (another) constitutional crisis.  May is centralising control for ll of Brexit in the Cabinet - this probably means no say for Scotland, NI, Wales or London either.  There's no stomach for "hard Brexit" in Parliament, and indeed it's contentious even within the Tory Party (and runs directly counter to their 2015 manifesto).

Parliament is getting agitated by May's lack of due respect.

And by the way: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/11/hard-brexit-treasury-66bn-eu-single-market

Treasury coffers may take a £66bn annual hit if Britain goes for a hard Brexit, cabinet ministers have been warned.

Leaked government papers suggest that leaving the single market and switching to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules would cause GDP to fall by up to 9.5% compared with staying in the EU.

The draft cabinet committee paper seen by the Times is based on forecasts from the controversial study into the predicted impact of quitting the EU published by George Osborne in April during the referendum campaign. Although the then chancellor faced widespread criticism over the report, the Treasury stands by its calculations, according to the Times.

The documents says: "The Treasury estimates that UK GDP would be between 5.4% and 9.5% of GDP lower after 15 years if we left the EU with no successor arrangement, with a central estimate of 7.5%.

"The net impact on public sector receipts – assuming no contributions to the EU and current receipts from the EU are replicated in full – would be a loss of between £38bn and £66bn per year after 15 years, driven by the smaller size of the economy."

[Faust]

The north issue is getting really ugly, no one here wants a border, north or south. There's talk of repealing the convention on human rights, which results in a nullification of the good Friday agreement, that and May's ugly comments about soldiers no longer being harassed (when they were performing vengeance killings on innocent people in the North).

The north not having suffered enough, it now looks like Fianna Fáil are looking to establish a party in the north. This is the corrupt auction politics party that bravely led us into the crash, the illegal property deals, the zero pay for corporations.

Sinn Féin is the already established republican party up there, but widely associated with the IRA and the troubles, however since the Good Friday agreement, the power sharing, an uncomfortable peace has been hard won on both sides, with concessions on each side; SF take seats in government but don't take up the ones they are entitled to in Parliament over the water.
FF are not as classy a bunch, don't expect violence from them, but they will take up their seats in parliament.
If they do that, England will be begging for a breakup of the Union.

[Cain]

Unfortunately, Tories know fuck all about Northern Ireland.  No-one votes for them there, therefore they don't care.  Just like Scotland.  Anywhere outside of the Home Countries is foreign territory, suspicious and awful.  On the plus side, I'm hoping this means NI can come to its own arrangements with RoI, but legally that may not stick.

In other news, remember that £450 million a week that will go into the NHS?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37627308

Whitehall officials believe the UK may need to make big payments to the EU to secure preferential trading terms after Brexit, BBC Newsnight has learned.

During the EU referendum, Vote Leave claimed leaving the EU could save the UK £350m a week in contributions.

But an unnamed cabinet minister has told Newsnight that the UK may end up "paying quite a lot" of that money to secure access to the single market.

The government said it would not give a "running commentary" on negotiations.

The UK's contributions to the EU became one of the most contentious issues in the EU referendum campaign after Vote Leave pledged to repatriate £350m a week - its estimate of the UK's gross weekly contributions to the EU.

This is reduced by subsidies paid to the UK and by the UK budget rebate.

But a leading light in the Brexit campaign said they now expected the UK could still end up paying as much as £5bn a year into EU funds, in return for access to the single market.

This is roughly half of what the UK would have expected to contribute to the EU - estimated by the Office for Budget Responsibility to average around £9.6bn a year from 2015.

Ed Mililibands's coalition of plucky rebels is still picking away at Brexit negotiations (Miliband is the driving force behind the cross-Parliamentary calls for a vote on the terms of Brexit, he's no fool.  Can't eat a bacon sandwich, but no fool).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37622928

Labour has renewed pressure on ministers to set out their Brexit strategy to MPs before formal negotiations begin.

Shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry said Labour would stage a Commons vote on Wednesday on a motion calling for "proper scrutiny".

Ahead of the debate, it asked Brexit Minister David Davis 170 questions, including on trade and migration.

The Conservatives said there would be "no running commentary" on their plans.

The government has faced calls to set out more detail on what it wants Brexit to look like, with little known so far about its plans for migration and trade with the EU.

That's one question for every day until the end of March, btw.

[Junkenstein]

I assume we will have around 0 answers by the end of march, if that date even holds.

How long can this go on before you have to admit you have no real plan? I'm guessing around a year before "health reasons" or "family commitments" cause the key people involved to run like fuck and leave the next set holding the bag.

[Cain]

I don't know...I know Miliband wasn't always the best leader of the party, but he seems to be building up quite a bit of momentum on the Tory backbenches with this, even among Brexit supporters.  Eventually someone will have to give Parliament an answer.  I can only assume they're going easy on May because the new government thing.

Come the new year, I think we'll see serious pushback.