UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?

[Faust]

I suspect that Sin Feinn would have blocked the NI assembly (they did originally because of the cash for ash, then for the Irish Language act), they didn't need to in the way because Arlene being a useful idiot  set herself up as the roadblock. But I still suspect SF are banking on a no deal, that will accelerate a United Ireland where the backstop would have only maintained the status quo.

[The Johnny]

this is the song that doesn't end. Yes, it goes on and on my friends. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was, And they'll continue singing it forever just because this is the song that doesn't end. Yes, it goes on and on my friends. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was, And they'll continue singing it forever just because this is the song that doesn't end. Yes, it goes on and on my friends. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was, And they'll continue singing it forever just because this is the song that doesn't end. Yes, it goes on and on my friends. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was, And they'll continue singing it forever just because this is the song that doesn't end. Yes, it goes on and on my friends. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was, And they'll continue singing it forever just because

[Faust]

So got this today, in response to saying Boris plans wont cut it.

[Cain]

Yanks that post in braincels are cute.

[Faust]

Yeah at first I was going to respond, and then I looked at his post history, and then I googled his user name and he appears to be mentally unhinged

[Fujikoma]

I may be unhinged but that's not proof that I'm wrong. The trail of bodies may be damning, however.

[Cain]

Yeah at first I was going to respond, and then I looked at his post history, and then I googled his user name and he appears to be mentally unhinged

I take it you saw his "up the RA" posts too then? Yeah, there's a reason he's hovering at roughly -100 comment karma, despite his number of posts.

In other news, Priti Pratel is tired of the rootless cosmopolitans of specifically North London. This isn't antisemitism because fuck you, Corbyn, that's why (I'm pretty close to Stamford Hill, I have a very good idea of what Patel is alluding to here).

[Doktor Howl]

Earlier today, Johnson tries a little strong-arming on the EU.  By which I mean he mush-mouthed a "new" compromise and then said "that's it."

EU response:

https://apnews.com/ca54e2b376cf491babee6351a7ea3078

France's foreign minister says that a no-deal Brexit is "the most plausible" possibility for the moment.

Jean-Yves Le Drian told France's lower house of parliament that the European Union "remains available for other proposals" from Britain, but he stressed that none had been presented yet that would be "compatible" with a deal.

[Cain]

The thing is, he can't credibly threaten No Deal while Parliament has signed laws into effect preventing him from doing so (he has 16 days to send the letter, btw).

And even if he did, the maintenance of the Good Friday Agreement is a red line for both Ireland (which can veto any deal Britain seeks) and for the EU as a whole (who want to be seen as a force for stability, both in security and legal terms). So this was always a non-starter.

Meaning, it's for domestic consumption. And despite all the whining about how unfair the media is to them at the Tory party confererence, the tabloids and Telegraph will lap this up.

[Faust]

It also fucks NI royally:
A land border with the rest of Ireland, and a sea border for agri where the backstop gives it the best of both worlds (full access to UK and EU Markets).
It's a non runner, as Cain said mostly for home domestic consumption, but part of it is testing the EU to see if they are willing to budge on anything.
Alternatively it could be the proposal of a situation so insufferable for NI that it makes the backstop look good (and out trots Mays deal).

Then there is this:
https://www.rte.ie/news/us/2019/1001/1079529-us-congress-gfa/
The Dems have put in a bill to block a US-UK trade deal if the GFA isn't protected, but this is something McConnel also previously stated he would support so we'll see if it gets through the house.

[Doktor Howl]

The thing is, he can't credibly threaten No Deal while Parliament has signed laws into effect preventing him from doing so (he has 16 days to send the letter, btw).

And even if he did, the maintenance of the Good Friday Agreement is a red line for both Ireland (which can veto any deal Britain seeks) and for the EU as a whole (who want to be seen as a force for stability, both in security and legal terms). So this was always a non-starter.

Meaning, it's for domestic consumption. And despite all the whining about how unfair the media is to them at the Tory party confererence, the tabloids and Telegraph will lap this up.

What I'm seeing here is the timer runs out, UK law says no deal, no Brexit, but the the EU says "enough of your shit" and all the snaggletoof Brits get tossed out of Europe.  UK economy crashes.  A short while later, the EU economy crashes.  Somewhere in there the USA economy crashes, already weakened by the trade war.  Putin then learns that it doesn't matter how awesome your victory is if nobody can buy your product.

[Doktor Howl]

It also fucks NI royally:
A land border with the rest of Ireland, and a sea border for agri where the backstop gives it the best of both worlds (full access to UK and EU Markets).
It's a non runner, as Cain said mostly for home domestic consumption, but part of it is testing the EU to see if they are willing to budge on anything.
Alternatively it could be the proposal of a situation so insufferable for NI that it makes the backstop look good (and out trots Mays deal).

Then there is this:
https://www.rte.ie/news/us/2019/1001/1079529-us-congress-gfa/
The Dems have put in a bill to block a US-UK trade deal if the GFA isn't protected, but this is something McConnel also previously stated he would support so we'll see if it gets through the house.

The way it looks from here, if the backstop remains, Ireland does really well until everything falls apart, as they will sort of be in the same position, trade-wise, as Hong Kong.

[Faust]

With the backstop NI would be in the European customs union market and that is comparable with Hong Kong that's true. The Difference here is that trade in NI is inextricably intertwined Where Hong Kong has a robust financial market.

Agriculture and NI go hand in hand, Milk processing being a key example:
Milk is collected from farms around NI
It goes south of the border (not possible in regulatory deviation), where it is processed, it then goes back across the border for packaging and split selling to the Republic (half goes south) and the UK (half goes east)

The backstop is not something that would ever cause economic difficulty for NI, in fact it would end up becoming desirable to put businesses there, which is what I don't think the Tories want to see, it's in their interests to keep NI poor.

Yes they are tied to risks of downturn in the EU and the UK, but less so in the backstop than any other instance.

Either way, what was proposed today was Irelands no deal plan and just as damaging anyway, so Ireland is going to stick with No Deal.

[Faust]

And I say this fully aware that it may plunge the whole world into another economic crises, you have to understand NI a sore point for us, a compromise was made in the nineties that really wasn't easy for us (we gave up our claim to NI provided there would be continued integration and a mechanism for NI to rejoin Ireland), seeing as that difficult painful compromise is now being shit on, there isn't a price can be put on NI, let no deal be our miserable shared cultural experience.

[Doktor Howl]

And I say this fully aware that it may plunge the whole world into another economic crises, you have to understand NI a sore point for us, a compromise was made in the nineties that really wasn't easy for us (we gave up our claim to NI provided there would be continued integration and a mechanism for NI to rejoin Ireland), seeing as that difficult painful compromise is now being shit on, there isn't a price can be put on NI, let no deal be our miserable shared cultural experience.

I ain't even blaming you.  You are being extorted by the Tories, it would be morally as well as fiscally wrong to knuckle under.

ETA:  Also, you know me.  I will burn the world down before I take a step back, and I admire that in Ireland right now.