Considering the percentage of people who polled that they planned to vote by mail-in, I think we will truly have to wait for all the mail-ins over the next day or two. If Biden can get Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he has a serious chance, and since (I think) the latter three count their mail-ins + early votes last, Biden is likely to start picking up in those states later in the night and well into tomorrow.
And since all the News Site numbers are based on predicted voter turnout, the mail-ins make things a bit harder to really predict.
Just in case Trump tries to call it early, I've got a bottle of New Riff Single Barrel, Nicotine patches, and a sheet of Benadryl.
I think Trump's going to win, but I'm trying to be optimistic without necessarily getting my hopes up.