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UNLIMITED horrible bond bubble thread.

Started by Doktor Howl, October 26, 2018, 10:06:57 PM

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hooplala

"Soon all of us will have special names" — Professor Brian O'Blivion

"Now's not the time to get silly, so wear your big boots and jump on the garbage clowns." — Bob Dylan?

"Do I contradict myself?
Very well then I contradict myself,
(I am large, I contain multitudes.)"
— Walt Whitman

Doktor Howl

Quote from: Cain on August 21, 2019, 09:34:05 PM
I have wondered about Trump's job numbers. They always seemed too good to be true, given the disruption I am hearing on the industry side regarding the trade wars

It is also worth mentioning that the BLS still doesn't count people who have been out of work for more than 6 months.  In addition to this.
Molon Lube

Doktor Howl

Molon Lube

Cain

Quote"Our tools for fighting recession are no doubt more limited (than) in the past," said Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard University's Kennedy School.

Who could have forseen that denying governments funds via tax rises might lead to them not having enough money to counteract recessions?

Nobody could have known.

Doktor Howl

Quote from: Cain on August 23, 2019, 03:02:51 PM
Quote"Our tools for fighting recession are no doubt more limited (than) in the past," said Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard University's Kennedy School.

Who could have forseen that denying governments funds via tax rises might lead to them not having enough money to counteract recessions?

Nobody could have known.

This has never happened 3 times in my lifetime.   :lulz:
Molon Lube

chaotic neutral observer

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/negative-yield-bonds/

There are currently $17 trillion worth of negative-yielding bonds out there.

As I understand it, a bond has negative yield when the current price of the bond is higher than the redemption value plus the remaining interest payments.  This means that if you hold the bond to maturity, you will actually lose money.

As absurd as this sounds, it's actually a good idea; if, for example, if bond prices increase indefinitely, or if you sell just before the price crashes, or if you are in a situation where it's safer to keep your money in bonds than in a zero-interest cash account.   :|
Desine fata deum flecti sperare precando.

chaotic neutral observer

Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 26, 2018, 11:45:48 PM
Quote from: nullified on October 26, 2018, 10:09:14 PM
Quick, tell me how I can take advantage of this for my own personal gain.

If you have a few million around, put it in Goldman Sachs preferred stock.  They're going to make out like bandits.

Does this recommendation still hold, and if so, why do you think so?  Not considering Impending Doom, GS looks like a decent stock at the moment.  They're evil, of course, but I wouldn't be much of a chaotic neutral if my principles weren't negotiable.

Is the likely outcome that a market meltdown will cause a storm of transactions, and GS will earn a few beans each time someone panics?
Desine fata deum flecti sperare precando.

altered

Anyone know what's going on with the market?

I just made 13 dollars in a day on my ETFs. It wasn't dividends either. I've never made more than a couple dollars in a day.

It's weird, I'd expect more uncertainty.
"I am that worst of all type of criminal...I cannot bring myself to do what you tell me, because you told me."

There's over 100 of us in this meat-suit. You'd think it runs like a ship, but it's more like a hundred and ten angry ghosts having an old-school QuakeWorld tournament, three people desperately trying to make sure the gamers don't go hungry or soil themselves, and the Facilities manager weeping in the corner as the garbage piles high.

Doktor Howl

Quote from: altered on January 03, 2020, 07:44:10 PM
Anyone know what's going on with the market?

I just made 13 dollars in a day on my ETFs. It wasn't dividends either. I've never made more than a couple dollars in a day.

It's weird, I'd expect more uncertainty.

Oil is bouncing up and down like a meth head, and the market is reacting accordingly.
Molon Lube

Doktor Howl

Quote from: chaotic neutral observer on September 22, 2019, 04:35:46 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 26, 2018, 11:45:48 PM
Quote from: nullified on October 26, 2018, 10:09:14 PM
Quick, tell me how I can take advantage of this for my own personal gain.

If you have a few million around, put it in Goldman Sachs preferred stock.  They're going to make out like bandits.

Does this recommendation still hold, and if so, why do you think so?  Not considering Impending Doom, GS looks like a decent stock at the moment.  They're evil, of course, but I wouldn't be much of a chaotic neutral if my principles weren't negotiable.

Is the likely outcome that a market meltdown will cause a storm of transactions, and GS will earn a few beans each time someone panics?

Better.  They insure those transactions.  Not that the gamble won't fail, but that the act of making the trade occurs.

Molon Lube