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So Dems might have the Senate

Started by Pergamos, November 10, 2018, 03:33:01 AM

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minuspace

That they also called the house so early would give me pause.

Doktor Howl

Molon Lube

Cain

You all know I like to dunk on Nate Silver as a dweeb who thinks he can understand politics via statistics, instead of some weird and incoherent hybrid of history, economy, political science, behavioral psychology and group dynamics...but a numbers-based approach does have its advantages

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/something-looks-weird-in-broward-county-heres-what-we-know-about-a-possible-florida-recount/

QuoteUnusually, the votes tabulated in Broward County so far exhibit a high rate of something called "undervoting," or not voting in all the races on the ballot. Countywide, 26,060 fewer votes were cast in the U.S. Senate race than in the governor race.1 Put another way, turnout in the Senate race was 3.7 percent lower than in the gubernatorial race.

Broward County's undervote rate is way out of line with every other county in Florida, which exhibited, at most, a 0.8-percent difference. (There is one outlier — the sparsely populated Liberty County — where votes cast in the Senate race were 1 percent higher than in the governor race, but there we're talking about a difference of 26 votes, not more than 26,000, as is the case in Broward.)

To put in perspective what an eye-popping number of undervotes that is, more Broward County residents voted for the down-ballot constitutional offices of chief financial officer and state agriculture commissioner than U.S. Senate — an extremely high-profile election in which $181 million was spent. Generally, the higher the elected office, the less likely voters are to skip it on their ballots. Something sure does seem off in Broward County; we just don't know what yet.

And here is the graphic:


LMNO

Some are saying it's because of a weird ballot layout -- the Senate pick was apparently sort of buried in the lower left corner, which could be easy to miss/skip over.

Even though it's ultimately the voter's responsibility, one could ascribe sneaky voter suppression to it, depending on who approved the layout.

Doktor Howl

Quote from: LMNO on November 12, 2018, 12:49:19 PM
Some are saying it's because of a weird ballot layout -- the Senate pick was apparently sort of buried in the lower left corner, which could be easy to miss/skip over.

Even though it's ultimately the voter's responsibility, one could ascribe sneaky voter suppression to it, depending on who approved the layout.

Any ballot that doesn't just have a straight list down the page is automatically a means by which to cheat.
Molon Lube