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A math equation that predicts the end of humanity

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Brother Mythos:
How much longer till we all die off? 760 years, give or take.

As per the article:

'The most mind-boggling controversy in the contemporary philosophy of science is the “doomsday argument,” a claim that a mathematical formula can predict how long the human race will survive. It gives us even odds that our species will meet its end within the next 760 years.

The doomsday argument doesn’t tell what’s going to kill us — it just gives the date (very, very approximately).

When I first came across this idea, I thought it was absurd. A prediction must be founded on data, not math! That is by no means an uncommon reaction. One critic, physicist Eric J. Lerner, branded doomsday “pseudo-science, a mere manipulation of numbers.”'

Here's the link: https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/6/28/18760585/doomsday-argument-calculation-prediction-j-richard-gott

Gott, the creator of the prediction technique, calls it  “the Copernican method.” 

That's a damn good name to build a marketing campaign around, and I would normally dismiss something like this out of hand, except for the lulz possibilities. But, Gott did get his prediction technique published in the prestigious journal Nature.

Nephew Twiddleton:
That's a rather optimistic estimate

Prelate Diogenes Shandor:

--- Quote from: Brother Mythos on July 05, 2019, 06:02:59 pm ---How much longer till we all die off? 760 years, give or take.

As per the article:

'The most mind-boggling controversy in the contemporary philosophy of science is the “doomsday argument,” a claim that a mathematical formula can predict how long the human race will survive. It gives us even odds that our species will meet its end within the next 760 years.

The doomsday argument doesn’t tell what’s going to kill us — it just gives the date (very, very approximately).

When I first came across this idea, I thought it was absurd. A prediction must be founded on data, not math! That is by no means an uncommon reaction. One critic, physicist Eric J. Lerner, branded doomsday “pseudo-science, a mere manipulation of numbers.”'

Here's the link: https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/6/28/18760585/doomsday-argument-calculation-prediction-j-richard-gott

Gott, the creator of the prediction technique, calls it  “the Copernican method.” 

That's a damn good name to build a marketing campaign around, and I would normally dismiss something like this out of hand, except for the lulz possibilities. But, Gott did get his prediction technique published in the prestigious journal Nature.

--- End quote ---

I'm familiar with this argument, and it fails because the same reasoning can be used to prove other numbers for the end of the world. For example, civilization has existed for 10000 years so under the copernical principle we might expect it to last for another 10000 years. Anatomically modern humans have been around for around 300000 years, so we might expect another 300000, or we might expect to lasy the average lifespan of an apex predator species, or a keystone species

rong:
couldn't you use this technique to predict the end of numbers, themselves? 

"i've counted 10,000 numbers, so there's probably, like, 10,000 more"

Brother Mythos:

--- Quote from: Nephew Twiddleton on July 05, 2019, 06:24:13 pm ---That's a rather optimistic estimate

--- End quote ---

That thought also occurred to me, upon reading it for the first time.

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