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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in

Started by The Wizard Joseph, February 29, 2020, 03:39:29 PM

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The Wizard Joseph

Four unconfirmed cases in Milwaukee and three confirmed in Chicago region. This region is now on a fuse. I live between these cities.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

The Wizard Joseph

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/coronavirus-updating-charts-maps
Yeah it's buzzfeed, but the charts and data are supported elsewhere. This has good charts and maps. Were I playing Plage Inc. With these numbers on the average difficulty, the most realistic simulation, I would be expecting to see total saturation very soon. Like maybe half a year. The mortality rate seems at a glance to be about 2%. By way of comparison the Spanish flu was about .5% iirc. Mass graves are probably going to make a comeback.

:kingmeh:  :fnord:
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

Frontside Back

At what point should I stop picking my nose and smearing the boogers all over my furniture?
"I want to be the Borg but I want to do it alone."

The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: Frontside Back on March 02, 2020, 12:10:24 PM
At what point should I stop picking my nose and smearing the boogers all over my furniture?

This novel coronavirus can remain on surfaces for up to 9 days. So at the very least stop being all nasty. Like right now. Aah.   Aah.   I see you Frontside. Stop. Ok now put it back in there and go blow yourself.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

LMNO

I'm gonna be the first on this thread to declare that there's more smoke than fire here.

Tons of hype, lots of fear.

There will be death, yes.  But it won't be a plague.  And when it doesn't live up to the hype, Trump will declare himself a genius by "destroying" the virus in the US.  And people will believe him.

rong

Dow is up 250 right now.  I agree, there's a LOT of smoke...

Regardless of the outcome, there is much to be learned with this.
"a real smart feller, he felt smart"

Doktor Howl

Quote from: LMNO on March 02, 2020, 01:22:06 PM
I'm gonna be the first on this thread to declare that there's more smoke than fire here.

Tons of hype, lots of fear.

There will be death, yes.  But it won't be a plague.  And when it doesn't live up to the hype, Trump will declare himself a genius by "destroying" the virus in the US.  And people will believe him.

They will believe him while they are all braying spittle all over each other at rallies.

I am okay with this.
Molon Lube

The Wizard Joseph

Establishing for a fact that there is a level 4 biohazard research facility not far from the exotic meat market known to be ground zero. Strangely I have heard that not all of the initial cluster of victims had been anywhere near the market.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C2XHmevrePk
5 year old vid about the building of the facility.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC0gww2yznI
Establishes further its proximity to the market and that at least some Chinese scientists suspect the lab, but there is no direct proof beyond proximity. I would add no proof that the public knows of, yet.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Zl0V-OhZYk4
Further establishes the meat market as ground zero. And the remarkable speed of international spread. It had spread to at least 2 nearby nations by the time they even announced human to human transmission. Airborne transmission is about 6 feet without ppe.


As to "smoke"... There IS a fire growing daily. Most often the smoke is the most deadly part. I'm doing my best to supply factual information and do not believe that I am overstating the potential danger here. I hope to fuck that folks are reading the articles and watching the vids entirely.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

Doktor Howl

Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 05:54:44 PM

Establishes further its proximity to the market and that at least some Chinese scientists suspect the lab, but there is no direct proof beyond proximity. I would add no proof that the public knows of, yet.


Correlation != causation.  Also, this would be the DUMBEST weaponized microbe know to mankind.  It has a ridiculous incubation time, which means that it will eventually come back on your own people, and in the vast majority of cases, symptoms are either not present or trivial.

LASTLY, we don't yet have the tech to do this.  Weaponized germs right now are either existing viruses or engineered bacteria.
Molon Lube

The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 02, 2020, 06:18:42 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 05:54:44 PM

Establishes further its proximity to the market and that at least some Chinese scientists suspect the lab, but there is no direct proof beyond proximity. I would add no proof that the public knows of, yet.


Correlation != causation.  Also, this would be the DUMBEST weaponized microbe know to mankind.  It has a ridiculous incubation time, which means that it will eventually come back on your own people, and in the vast majority of cases, symptoms are either not present or trivial.

LASTLY, we don't yet have the tech to do this.  Weaponized germs right now are either existing viruses or engineered bacteria.

There is a scholarly article called

Decoding evolution and transmissions of novel pneumonia coronavirus using the whole genomic data

Copypasta that into even Google and you will find both the document and various analysis. The document itself is mostly over my head, but the common consensus on its observations is pretty consistent that the virus did not in fact originate from an animal in the market, but was brought from outside and circulated there heavily.

Here's Pakistan's take. Most of the rest of the returns are along these lines.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/decoding-the-evolution-and-transmissions-of-the-novel-pneumonia-coronavirus-using-whole-genomic-data.655381/

The lab specializes in viruses. I suspect not so much a weapon made to kill, but a tool meant to be contained that got loose, which might be ultimately worse. Weapons tend to burn out on their own mortality rate. This might just be a truly novel virus that never traveled through nature, so every system animal, microbial, and human that it infects may well cause mutations. The CDC document in the op cites a neoplasm in the blood and tissues. That means that the substance has never been seen before and such things are usually associated with novel cancers, not viruses. If it came up through nature in the usual way, it's unique in both form and effect.

I don't actually care whether or not it's engineered. I do believe that the evidence is sufficient to have suspicion, not assume otherwise. It won't matter. The data is clear. This thing is entirely new to the party, debilitating, deadly, and prolific far beyond most viruses of its kind. The biome and human civilization will never be the same again.

I know that sounds dramatic, but I would not say it if I had no reason to. The data is clear.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

LMNO

So, current reports say that it's been in the US for at least three weeks now, which means it's already spread throughout the general population.


And the fact that vast swaths of people haven't been cut down like scythed wheat lead me to believe that it's very dangerous to a small group of those who are already health-compromised. 

Which is still terrible, but it's not riding a pale horse.

Doktor Howl

Quote from: LMNO on March 02, 2020, 07:18:55 PM
So, current reports say that it's been in the US for at least three weeks now, which means it's already spread throughout the general population.

This is all based on a number of assumptions that are themselves based on potato and wishful thinking.
Molon Lube

Doktor Howl

Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 06:46:32 PM

The lab specializes in viruses.

Does the lab specialize in studying viruses or altering viruses? 

QuoteI know that sounds dramatic, but I would not say it if I had no reason to. The data is clear.

It sounds like Mike Pence level fuckery.  The data is not at all fucking clear, unless you "clarify" it by wanting a result when you set out to look.
Molon Lube

rong

it took 19 days for china to go from ~20 cases to over 100.

7 days after that there were over 1000.

another week and there were 10,000

30,000 the week after that.

based on that, I think everyone's St Patrick's Day plans will be ok, but April Fool's Day is gonna suck.
"a real smart feller, he felt smart"

Cramulus

Previous health scares like H1N1 have conditioned me to have the following responses:


  • News people get a lot of mileage out of health scares, so they tend to be overreported
  • There's nothing I can do about this, other than wash my hands--so it's not worth getting too anxious

We also gotta remember that the media is broken, and so people are more likely to listen to fringe media. I have a friend who is normally very reasonable , but this week he keeps sending me youtube links, saying "The media isn't telling the truth, but this guy on youtube has been making really good predictions.... I trust him, and he says we should start getting go-bags ready."