Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in

[The Wizard Joseph]

The lab specializes in viruses.

Does the lab specialize in studying viruses or altering viruses? 

I know that sounds dramatic, but I would not say it if I had no reason to. The data is clear.

It sounds like Mike Pence level fuckery.  The data is not at all fucking clear, unless you "clarify" it by wanting a result when you set out to look.

1. Doesn't matter which if something did in fact get loose. You don't build an lv4 containment facility over the course of 10 years and get internationally certified just for the fun of it all. I don't know that for a fact but can't discard the possibility. There's direct evidence supporting the theory that it did not come from an animal in the market, but fuck it. The origin is at this point moot.

2. Ok. Comparing me to Pence aside, I DON'T want this analysis to go where it has. Do you doubt my character? I admit to questionable objectivity because of various various mental conditions and other recent difficulties that nearly overwhelmed me, but do you believe me stupid based upon your own analysis of what I have presented here? Is my mental competence in question?

If you genuinely believe that those questions are a yes, then ask me to just shut up, and I will. God knows that I have better things to do with my time than stand up and blither like an idiot on the internet.

If not then I guess I'll just keep posting as I find more info and the numbers continue to climb. Maybe my personal analysis is entirely off the reservation. I still feel compelled to share the relevant info to folks who may give a shit, because I give a shit about them.

[altered]

In the most sincere, heartfelt way I can manage, TWJ... yes, this is stupid.

You mention several times that Plague Inc is a source of info for you, for God's sake. You overstate the case on symptoms and post fearmongering videos. You repeat the "biotech engineered virus" conspiracy theory uncritically (they've found the likely source of the virus in pangolins, my dude). You do actually need to consider what you're doing, because you've lost touch with the real world.

The biggest possible risk of COVID-19 is that it becomes endemic in the US because of our healthcare and dickhanded response to it. This isn't end of the world territory by miles. Worse diseases have hit larger numbers of people in less time and humanity moved on. This won't so much as cause a bump in the road.

I am not diminishing the deaths. They suck. But by god, I count us all lucky our big breakout novel virus pandemic is shitty pneumonia that doesn't even infect children. It could be so, so, so much worse.

[The Wizard Joseph]

Ok then. This thread is done as far as I am concerned. Don't bother answering my previous questions Dok.

I'm just going to pretend that this never happened.
I'll just get back to the lulz and yucks.
Clearly I need to get my head straight.
Not even going to get particularly salty about it.
I will assume that I just don't actually know shit and just need to keep taking my meds and going to medical appointments.
I actually feel kinda relieved.

[Doktor Howl]

This is just an example of Hanlon's Razor:  "Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity."

Also, regular old Occam's Razor:  "Is it more likely that - like ebola - the disease traveled from animals to humans, or is it more likely that scientists used unannounced technology to create a 4th rate virus and then had it escape from a level 4 biolab or for some reason deliberately release it?

Again, it has the opposite values for the criteria that make a useful bioweapon.  Long incubation, low mortality rates among healthy individuals.  Not particularly debilitating to most people.

[rong]

I was enjoying this thread.  I'm sorry if it is over.

To use a metaphor:  we all know winter is coming.  Now is a good time to gather firewood.

Maybe it'll be a mild winter and we'll all be happy.  Maybe it will be a very hard winter and we'll be happy we gathered wood.

We do know we've never had a winter quite like the one that's coming.

[Doktor Howl]

https://apnews.com/45393d272612f46899d269b1966c869a

So, if the death rate of 3% is to be believed, then at least 200 people have the virus.  We know that 91 people have it.

Which means there are 109 people out getting their Typhoid Mary on.

If I thought for a moment that we'd actually learn from this, I'd say that it's actually been beneficial.  Loads of epidemiology math is getting tested, and pandemic response methods are being tried.  Some things we thought were obvious aren't as obvious as they seem (ie, "social distancing" causes more problems than it solves).

[tyrannosaurus vex]

I'm just sad that this isn't the end of the world.

[rong]

As a side note, I love that people are calling it "winnie the flu"

[Suu]

The first vaccine is already ready for trials. New method using mRNA to trigger the immune response, rather than manufacturing the virus and attenuating it for injection.

Even if it doesn't work first shot, this new style of vaccine is going to revolutionize immunizations. You're looking at a potential for less side effects by not using the dead virus or bacteria. I can't have the full TDAP since I'm allergic to the acellular pertussis component. If they can manipulate mRNA for a new pertussis vaccine, those of us with the allergy can be safely immunized without reaction.

https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_term=health_&linkId=83175567&fbclid=IwAR2_A1-X1h8R7wPBK2iXGqKGAlvESBkWOOA-RloOV0ghfrMyhcOcKC-YQ1A

[rong]

This sounds cool but also scary.

Makes me feel like I'm turning into my grandfather who refused to eat anything cooked in a microwave because "it's fucking radiation"

He died of cancer.

[Suu]

This sounds cool but also scary.

Makes me feel like I'm turning into my grandfather who refused to eat anything cooked in a microwave because "it's fucking radiation"

He died of cancer.

Science is fucking scary, but vaccines save lives. I'm not fond of being a potential vector for whooping cough that can kill a baby too young to be vaxxed because some fucking Karen decided her kids were going "natural".

[Doktor Howl]

This sounds cool but also scary.

Makes me feel like I'm turning into my grandfather who refused to eat anything cooked in a microwave because "it's fucking radiation"

He died of cancer.

Science is fucking scary, but vaccines save lives. I'm not fond of being a potential vector for whooping cough that can kill a baby too young to be vaxxed because some fucking Karen decided her kids were going "natural".

*ahem*

It's called "clean" now.

[Suu]

This sounds cool but also scary.

Makes me feel like I'm turning into my grandfather who refused to eat anything cooked in a microwave because "it's fucking radiation"

He died of cancer.

Science is fucking scary, but vaccines save lives. I'm not fond of being a potential vector for whooping cough that can kill a baby too young to be vaxxed because some fucking Karen decided her kids were going "natural".

*ahem*

It's called "clean" now.

Oh, did they find out that arsenic is also natural?

[rong]

I'm not knocking science - I'm just saying that irony, tho. 

He died of cancer cuz the doc told him on account of his diabetes, better quit smoking - so he switched to chewing red man (or maybe beechnut? Cant quite remember - maybe both)  died of throat cancer.

[Cain]

The food market is no longer believed to be Ground Zero for the virus

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/27/Reports-Chinas-first-COVID-19-patient-not-linked-to-seafood-market/1201582811760/

Feb. 27 (UPI) -- Chinese authorities said the first known patient of the new coronavirus in Wuhan had no connection to Huanan Seafood Market, which authorities have previously said is ground zero for COVID-19, according to Taiwanese press reports.

Eastern Broadcasting Co. and Liberty Times reported Thursday that China's first patient had shown symptoms of COVID-19 as early as Dec. 8. Chinese authorities have previously said the outbreak began on Dec. 31.

The statement from the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention published in Taiwanese news media marks the first time Chinese authorities have provided an alternative explanation of the source of the deadly outbreak.

On Jan. 24, the Lancet, an independent medical journal, published a study showing Wuhan's first patient was not connected to the seafood market. A joint research team representing China's Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Huanan Agricultural College and the Chinese Institute for Brain Research have also said the seafood market is not the source of COVID-19.