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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in

Started by The Wizard Joseph, February 29, 2020, 03:39:29 PM

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altered

Also worth noting. In the case of the original JAQ mention, I was 90% sure it was aimed at LuciferX, who positively reeked of bad faith. He stole your poetry schtick after he posted something that didn't have anything to do with the subject at all as "certainly interesting" (paraphrasing). He stunk of shitty bait.

You, on the other hand, come across as terrified and desperate, like, you know, most people on the planet are right now. I think you were roped into the plural there because your post was the prompt for other idiocy rather than specifically calling you out.
"I am that worst of all type of criminal...I cannot bring myself to do what you tell me, because you told me."

There's over 100 of us in this meat-suit. You'd think it runs like a ship, but it's more like a hundred and ten angry ghosts having an old-school QuakeWorld tournament, three people desperately trying to make sure the gamers don't go hungry or soil themselves, and the Facilities manager weeping in the corner as the garbage piles high.

minuspace

Quote from: altered on March 27, 2020, 10:13:19 PM
Also worth noting. In the case of the original JAQ mention, I was 90% sure it was aimed at LuciferX, who positively reeked of bad faith. He stole your poetry schtick after he posted something that didn't have anything to do with the subject at all as "certainly interesting" (paraphrasing). He stunk of shitty bait.

You, on the other hand, come across as terrified and desperate, like, you know, most people on the planet are right now. I think you were roped into the plural there because your post was the prompt for other idiocy rather than specifically calling you out.


Nah, no bad faith here. I actually lost sleep on trying to find data that would quell conspiratorial concerns. That the data was sequenced in China is incidental and to be expected. I'd apologize for the confusion if you required it. Just to make sure, the way I read the data was that the novel Coronavirus does not appear to be man made.

The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 27, 2020, 09:25:19 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 27, 2020, 07:22:39 PM

If you believe me some sort of provocatuer or that I'm otherwise acting in bad faith ask me to go and I will never post again. Otherwise don't accuse me of such directly or indirectly ever the fuck again.

TWJ,  You are talking to me and Cain and Faust.  We aren't here calling you names or accusing you of anything.  This ain't the old days.

But neither are we prepared to ourselves be screamed at, nor will this become the next GLP.

I say this with nothing but respect:  Snap out of it.

I'm REALLY trying to.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

altered

Quote from: LuciferX on March 27, 2020, 10:35:34 PM
Quote from: altered on March 27, 2020, 10:13:19 PM
Also worth noting. In the case of the original JAQ mention, I was 90% sure it was aimed at LuciferX, who positively reeked of bad faith. He stole your poetry schtick after he posted something that didn't have anything to do with the subject at all as "certainly interesting" (paraphrasing). He stunk of shitty bait.

You, on the other hand, come across as terrified and desperate, like, you know, most people on the planet are right now. I think you were roped into the plural there because your post was the prompt for other idiocy rather than specifically calling you out.


Nah, no bad faith here. I actually lost sleep on trying to find data that would quell conspiratorial concerns. That the data was sequenced in China is incidental and to be expected. I'd apologize for the confusion if you required it. Just to make sure, the way I read the data was that the novel Coronavirus does not appear to be man made.

I think the poetry schtick and timing makes the opposite conclusion far easier to reach.
"I am that worst of all type of criminal...I cannot bring myself to do what you tell me, because you told me."

There's over 100 of us in this meat-suit. You'd think it runs like a ship, but it's more like a hundred and ten angry ghosts having an old-school QuakeWorld tournament, three people desperately trying to make sure the gamers don't go hungry or soil themselves, and the Facilities manager weeping in the corner as the garbage piles high.

minuspace

Quote from: altered on March 27, 2020, 10:43:08 PM
Quote from: LuciferX on March 27, 2020, 10:35:34 PM
Quote from: altered on March 27, 2020, 10:13:19 PM
Also worth noting. In the case of the original JAQ mention, I was 90% sure it was aimed at LuciferX, who positively reeked of bad faith. He stole your poetry schtick after he posted something that didn't have anything to do with the subject at all as "certainly interesting" (paraphrasing). He stunk of shitty bait.

You, on the other hand, come across as terrified and desperate, like, you know, most people on the planet are right now. I think you were roped into the plural there because your post was the prompt for other idiocy rather than specifically calling you out.


Nah, no bad faith here. I actually lost sleep on trying to find data that would quell conspiratorial concerns. That the data was sequenced in China is incidental and to be expected. I'd apologize for the confusion if you required it. Just to make sure, the way I read the data was that the novel Coronavirus does not appear to be man made.

I think the poetry schtick and timing makes the opposite conclusion far easier to reach.


I can see that about the rhyme, no offense was intended though. I was trying to relate and appreciate the clarification.

The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 27, 2020, 09:35:49 PM
Remember before you get pissed off that I am the crown prince of paranoia and badly filtered data.  I know what you're facing.  I may be the closest thing to "knowing exactly where you are."

:cry:

I can't stop crying. What do?
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

Doktor Howl

Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 27, 2020, 10:56:32 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 27, 2020, 09:35:49 PM
Remember before you get pissed off that I am the crown prince of paranoia and badly filtered data.  I know what you're facing.  I may be the closest thing to "knowing exactly where you are."

:cry:

I can't stop crying. What do?

Taking this to PM.
Molon Lube

Doktor Howl

Ever watch someone get dragged for miles on Pubpeer?  Well, you're gonna.  Read the comments.

https://pubpeer.com/publications/3B1F9EAD4982C64445A60F5E83CCFE
Molon Lube

The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 29, 2020, 04:28:19 AM
Ever watch someone get dragged for miles on Pubpeer?  Well, you're gonna.  Read the comments.

https://pubpeer.com/publications/3B1F9EAD4982C64445A60F5E83CCFE

I am far too tired and poorly educated to understand what I am seeing here. What is this website and may I please have a synopsis of what I am seeing here.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

The Wizard Joseph

This guy gets it and lays it out in easy hermaneutical terms for the lay person. He's also going a little bit crazy, but he's strong! Share this at least once aftef watching it if you would be seen as human by me. If this can be shared enough it will save many lives ultimately and function as a weapon against thost fools who disbelieve the severity of the problem.

He is inaccurate in one thing. It is KNOWN that the virus can easily go from airborne as he describes to aresolized in certain conditions a when that happens one person can potentially infect thousands in close proximity with each other. Not exaggerating. Mask up and get everyone you know to do so and also some form of eyewear if at all possible as an effective statistical measure, but know that it only takes a tiny, tiny sample of aresolized virus to your exposed eye to infect you. It's a bonus on the dice roll, not a means to at all bypass the dice roll.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2DZCqBRrvSH-8hjWu3iKO_bVupuZD_LW_6LJUfy05pz9i9l4hlIegCYGE&v=4J0d59dd-qM
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

altered

#130
You are absolutely wrong about the aerosol bit. It can only happen when connecting or disconnecting a ventilator, performing CPR, performing an intubation and a very small number of other situations which would occur in a medical environment. These procedures literally cause any mucus-or-saliva-infectious virus to become aerosolized, because they involve pressurized air flowing through the airway abruptly.

(This is also a risk with any surgical procedure using electric cutting tools, even if the viruses involved aren't respiratory. Tell a microbiologist that you're going to break out the circular saw to autopsy an Ebola corpse, and they'll tell you that you sure as fuck are not doing that within 100 miles of them.)

Important to note: this doesn't make someone produce aerosol forever more. It is a temporary and immediate kind of deal. While connected or disconnected, while intubated or not intubated, there is no aerosol production. Only during the act of Doing the Medical Thing is aerosol produced.

They have procedures when doing these things with infectious disease patients to ensure aerosolized particles are not spread to high risk locations. These are not new procedures, we have had them out there for a while (IIRC since the 70s).

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/

The headline is misleading: the article literally explains that there are no "normal" cases which cause aerosolization, and that all workers not performing the very few high risk procedures can safely use standard PPE.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

In case you don't trust a news article (admittedly I know little about the reliability of that news site, so that's fair). Check the titer comparison for aerosol route. nCoV-SARS-2 is less stable as an aerosol and harder to get that way to begin with than SARS-1.*

https://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/WHO_HSE_EPR_2008_2.pdf

The procedures. Note that "aerosol-generating procedures" have their own special color and involve a separate room and special gear.



Please chill.



* Edited. See, originally, I incorrectly stated that SARS did not transmit by aerosol. I have no fucking clue why, because the paper told me I was wrong and I had just double checked it, on top of actually having a morbid interest in this shit before we had a plague. So, my bad.

I have just double checked any new papers to appear in the past week and a half, and nothing has arisen to contradict the belief that COVID does not spread by aerosol: in fact, this study is the strongest evidence for it. Honestly, considering they intentionally aerosolized the stuff to start, it's really hard to treat their findings as reflective of the real world.
"I am that worst of all type of criminal...I cannot bring myself to do what you tell me, because you told me."

There's over 100 of us in this meat-suit. You'd think it runs like a ship, but it's more like a hundred and ten angry ghosts having an old-school QuakeWorld tournament, three people desperately trying to make sure the gamers don't go hungry or soil themselves, and the Facilities manager weeping in the corner as the garbage piles high.

The Wizard Joseph

I said in certain conditions. You called me wrong and then named some of the conditions. Other special cases have occurred. In S Korea there was a massive cluster that the doctor doing the interview said was caused by one (1) single carrier who participated in a religious service. The 6 foot guideline is for normal breathing and speech. If you shout, sing, or have an uncontrollable cough the natural droplets that contain the virus get finer and travel much farther. In an enclosed area like a church or indoor concert where many people are jumping around, shouting, or otherwise vibrating the air it aresolizes very fast and travels on the micro air currents to extra long distances getting breathed in direcly and also settling on surfaces for indirect contact transmission.

And I am chill. You haven't seen not chill. If you're uncomfortable with my level of intensity now, well, I guess that I can't help you. Did you watch the video? If so respect the good doctor's message and share it please altered.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

Cramulus

Trump does not give a shit what the house + senate agreed on, he's doing things his way. Big Businesses can go ahead and pocket the stimulus money, who cares.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/28/21197995/coronavirus-stimulus-trump-inspector-general-wont-comply

tyrannosaurus vex

well, what are we going to do about it? impeach him? lol.
Evil and Unfeeling Arse-Flenser From The City of the Damned.

altered

#134
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 29, 2020, 01:01:12 PM
I said in certain conditions. You called me wrong and then named some of the conditions. Other special cases have occurred. In S Korea there was a massive cluster that the doctor doing the interview said was caused by one (1) single carrier who participated in a religious service. The 6 foot guideline is for normal breathing and speech. If you shout, sing, or have an uncontrollable cough the natural droplets that contain the virus get finer and travel much farther. In an enclosed area like a church or indoor concert where many people are jumping around, shouting, or otherwise vibrating the air it aresolizes very fast and travels on the micro air currents to extra long distances getting breathed in direcly and also settling on surfaces for indirect contact transmission.

And I am chill. You haven't seen not chill. If you're uncomfortable with my level of intensity now, well, I guess that I can't help you. Did you watch the video? If so respect the good doctor's message and share it please altered.

Firstly: there is no aerosol transmission of SARS-2 when you cough. How can we be sure of this? Because coughing is a very common symptom and it still produces just droplets.

Singing is off the mark for a hospital, so I won’t address it at all, but given the descriptions of the neuralgia COVID comes with, shouting and screaming are expected. Again, droplets. Normal protections apply.

VERY few things produce aerosols if the disease causing material doesn’t aerosolize by default. There is probably an exhaustive list somewhere, but I don’t have the energy for looking this early in my day.

Finally, later on I’ll look up that sect of Korean Christianity again. That wasn’t aerosol, that was their weird practices.



EDIT: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/why-a-south-korean-church-was-the-perfect-petri-dish-for-coronavirus-11583082110

The members repeatedly hug each other while shouting “Amen!” Aerosol isn’t required or even helpful, it’s almost certain everyone would have been infected by direct contact.
"I am that worst of all type of criminal...I cannot bring myself to do what you tell me, because you told me."

There's over 100 of us in this meat-suit. You'd think it runs like a ship, but it's more like a hundred and ten angry ghosts having an old-school QuakeWorld tournament, three people desperately trying to make sure the gamers don't go hungry or soil themselves, and the Facilities manager weeping in the corner as the garbage piles high.