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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in

Started by The Wizard Joseph, February 29, 2020, 03:39:29 PM

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The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: Faust on March 30, 2020, 07:34:10 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 07:20:44 PM
It is not about the coughing into someone's mouth or whatever at all. At that point you're essentially directly sharing a body fluid and medical staff taking the slightest precaution would be unlikely to be getting infected. Instead trained professionals in full ppe are still getting infected VERY commonly.
Not very commonly, as commonly as would be expected from a virus that can transmit on surfaces or by being coughed or sneezed on.
If it was airborn masks and gloves would not be sufficient, and infection would be near total in hospitals, which its not.
The evidence isnt there to support your more complex, unlikely scenario

The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of. The virus evolved a nearly perfect method of attachment to the receptors in a human and so it's super virulent. These two factors would barely be noticed if the virus were benign or like a cold, but it's not.

If it can remain active on a bare, nonporous surface for three days or more purely because it resists dessication logically that durability transfers to both aerosol and aqueous mediums. The corpses are infectious. Water that has recently been contaminated and not subsequently sanitized is almost certainly a vector nobody is considering. It absolutely can go aerosol under the right conditions. The conditions necessary for that are rare in a hospital by design and air pressure methods are used to keep such contamination in one room if it happens. Out in the real world such conditions and safeguards are not at all in play.

I'm not arguing because I want to be right here. In fact I'm done arguing at all. I will continue to present information and my analysis as I see something to be relevant. Continue to check me and offer counter evidence because I do need that, but I will continue to say uncomfortable things because this is a virus so dangerous that desire for comfort is now a liability, intellectual comfort itself is something nobody can afford at this point.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

Doktor Howl

Quote"They have no right to tell me I need to stay in my house. They cannot impose a travel ban on me. They can't. it's unconstitutional," said Texas-based activist Mark Meckler, a co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots who now leads the Convention of States Project.

Remember the Tea Party?  :lulz:
Molon Lube

The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 07:36:39 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 07:20:44 PM

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.

So do I, but for different reasons.

South Korea is invested in solving the problem.  The United States is invested in public opinion of the problem.  They are taking it seriously, we are not.

That is definitely part of my reasons and the fact is largely because of the man in the video who is also considering aerosol transmission.

If I could suggest measures for your workplace policies that err on the side of caution have everyone wear a simple mask to catch droplets while breathing in case they are asymptomatic carriers and also some form of eyewear at all times, something like work safety glasses is better than nothing, but sealed goggles would be better. They must be cleaned at the beginning and end of each shift and kept in house. The masks should be fresh daily and disposed of as biohazardous when they leave.

I read the other measures you have already taken and they are lucky to have you. I do hope that they reflect their appreciation and compensate you accordingly.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

Doktor Howl

Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:13:58 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 07:36:39 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 07:20:44 PM

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.

So do I, but for different reasons.

South Korea is invested in solving the problem.  The United States is invested in public opinion of the problem.  They are taking it seriously, we are not.

That is definitely part of my reasons and the fact is largely because of the man in the video who is also considering aerosol transmission.

If I could suggest measures for your workplace policies that err on the side of caution have everyone wear a simple mask to catch droplets while breathing in case they are asymptomatic carriers and also some form of eyewear at all times, something like work safety glasses is better than nothing, but sealed goggles would be better. They must be cleaned at the beginning and end of each shift and kept in house. The masks should be fresh daily and disposed of as biohazardous when they leave.

I read the other measures you have already taken and they are lucky to have you. I do hope that they reflect their appreciation and compensate you accordingly.

I have 9 people working in a 3 acre facility and nobody is allowed to be in the same room.  And the Janitor is bleaching the bejesus out of the entire building.
Molon Lube

The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 10:12:07 PM
Quote"They have no right to tell me I need to stay in my house. They cannot impose a travel ban on me. They can't. it's unconstitutional," said Texas-based activist Mark Meckler, a co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots who now leads the Convention of States Project.

Remember the Tea Party?  :lulz:
Rand Paul knew for a fact that he had the 'Rona and continued working for six days. That's an act of intentional bioterrorism in my opinion.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

minuspace

Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 09:59:13 PM
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.


[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin'.[/size]

The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 10:15:53 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:13:58 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 07:36:39 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 07:20:44 PM

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.

So do I, but for different reasons.

South Korea is invested in solving the problem.  The United States is invested in public opinion of the problem.  They are taking it seriously, we are not.

That is definitely part of my reasons and the fact is largely because of the man in the video who is also considering aerosol transmission.

If I could suggest measures for your workplace policies that err on the side of caution have everyone wear a simple mask to catch droplets while breathing in case they are asymptomatic carriers and also some form of eyewear at all times, something like work safety glasses is better than nothing, but sealed goggles would be better. They must be cleaned at the beginning and end of each shift and kept in house. The masks should be fresh daily and disposed of as biohazardous when they leave.

I read the other measures you have already taken and they are lucky to have you. I do hope that they reflect their appreciation and compensate you accordingly.

I have 9 people working in a 3 acre facility and nobody is allowed to be in the same room.  And the Janitor is bleaching the bejesus out of the entire building.

That's a good scenario. Any high vibration environment that shares the air duct system?
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

Cramulus

Joe, I'm sorry if my disagreement came off as personal or dismissive, that was not my intent.


The more I read, the more I realize the jury is still out on how long, exactly, aerosol particles remain in the air.


Dr Fauci states that it's probably not happening that often ("Not the primary way [you get infected]") - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8&t=2m55s

NIH says "possibly up to 3 hours"
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/new-coronavirus-stable-hours-surfaces

This article summarizes a few findings, says the research is mixed
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/

QuoteThe studies suggesting that it can be aerosolized are only preliminary, and other research contradicts it, finding no aerosolized coronavirus particles in the hospital rooms of Covid-19 patients.

QuoteThe weight of the evidence suggests that the new coronavirus can exist as an aerosol — a physics term meaning a liquid or solid (the virus) suspended in a gas (like air) — only under very limited conditions, and that this transmission route is not driving the pandemic. But "limited" conditions does not mean "no" conditions, underlining the need for health care workers to have high levels of personal protection, especially when doing procedures such as intubation that have the greatest chance of creating coronavirus aerosols. "I think the answer will be, aerosolization occurs rarely but not never," said microbiologist and physician Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. "You have to distinguish between what's possible and what's actually happening."

The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: LuciferX on March 30, 2020, 10:16:36 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 09:59:13 PM
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.


[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin'.[/size]

What is the basis of your belief?
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

minuspace

Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:18:47 PM
Quote from: LuciferX on March 30, 2020, 10:16:36 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 09:59:13 PM
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.
[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin'.[/size]

What is the basis of your belief?


Physics and logic.

Doktor Howl

Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:17:25 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 10:15:53 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:13:58 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 07:36:39 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 07:20:44 PM

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.

So do I, but for different reasons.

South Korea is invested in solving the problem.  The United States is invested in public opinion of the problem.  They are taking it seriously, we are not.

That is definitely part of my reasons and the fact is largely because of the man in the video who is also considering aerosol transmission.

If I could suggest measures for your workplace policies that err on the side of caution have everyone wear a simple mask to catch droplets while breathing in case they are asymptomatic carriers and also some form of eyewear at all times, something like work safety glasses is better than nothing, but sealed goggles would be better. They must be cleaned at the beginning and end of each shift and kept in house. The masks should be fresh daily and disposed of as biohazardous when they leave.

I read the other measures you have already taken and they are lucky to have you. I do hope that they reflect their appreciation and compensate you accordingly.

I have 9 people working in a 3 acre facility and nobody is allowed to be in the same room.  And the Janitor is bleaching the bejesus out of the entire building.

That's a good scenario. Any high vibration environment that shares the air duct system?

Yep.  But it's all turned off.  The production crew has a nice 2 week paid vacation, the facilities crew is doing overhauls.

I will have to find a way to show my appreciation to the facilities guys.  They haven't bitched once.
Molon Lube

The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: Cramulus on March 30, 2020, 10:18:17 PM
Joe, I'm sorry if my disagreement came off as personal or dismissive, that was not my intent.


The more I read, the more I realize the jury is still out on how long, exactly, aerosol particles remain in the air.


Dr Fauci states that it's probably not happening that often ("Not the primary way [you get infected]") - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8&t=2m55s

NIH says "possibly up to 3 hours"
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/new-coronavirus-stable-hours-surfaces

This article summarizes a few findings, says the research is mixed
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/

QuoteThe studies suggesting that it can be aerosolized are only preliminary, and other research contradicts it, finding no aerosolized coronavirus particles in the hospital rooms of Covid-19 patients.

QuoteThe weight of the evidence suggests that the new coronavirus can exist as an aerosol — a physics term meaning a liquid or solid (the virus) suspended in a gas (like air) — only under very limited conditions, and that this transmission route is not driving the pandemic. But "limited" conditions does not mean "no" conditions, underlining the need for health care workers to have high levels of personal protection, especially when doing procedures such as intubation that have the greatest chance of creating coronavirus aerosols. "I think the answer will be, aerosolization occurs rarely but not never," said microbiologist and physician Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. "You have to distinguish between what's possible and what's actually happening."

It's ok Cramulus. Keep reading. If nothing else this has provoked you to study rather than accept what you are being told. I try VERY hard to do the same.

We're, all of us, on this ship together. We must remain respectful or we are doomed.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

Doktor Howl

Oh, we're doomed.  But that's no reason to turn into beasts.

Except for QG, but she was always a beast.
Molon Lube

The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: LuciferX on March 30, 2020, 10:20:02 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:18:47 PM
Quote from: LuciferX on March 30, 2020, 10:16:36 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 09:59:13 PM
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.
[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin'.[/size]

What is the basis of your belief?


Physics and logic.

Please be specific.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
- Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

Doktor Howl

Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:24:28 PM
Quote from: LuciferX on March 30, 2020, 10:20:02 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:18:47 PM
Quote from: LuciferX on March 30, 2020, 10:16:36 PM
Quote from: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 09:59:13 PM
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.
[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin'.[/size]

What is the basis of your belief?


Physics and logic.

Please be specific.

I just know I'm not going to watch you get baited by LuciferX.
Molon Lube