Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in

[The Wizard Joseph]

 

Ahhhh Germany.

[The Wizard Joseph]

So... about that much higher R₀ I had suspected would show up later in the analysis

https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought?fbclid=IwAR1H0QlkEoyICMF0CZTfPdHLwha-g80dhmNPUBKT7cJ-HPORvYl3r6SZVdY

There's some form of right-click prevention keeping me from just doing direct quotation but the number is likely about 5.7 with 95% certainty between the ranges of 3.8 and 8.9.

5.7 would require 82% global infection to achieve the vaunted "herd immunity" we don't even know for a fact is possible either because the virus re-presents or may reinfect after "recovery."

This article is from about two months ago when they thought it was less than half of this figure.

https://massivesci.com/articles/coronavirus-covid19-sars-mers-quarantine-social-distancing/

H1N1 (swine flu), which had an R0 of 1.4-1.6, and is roughly comparable to Ebola (R0 of 1.5-2.5) and SARS (R0 of 2-4). It's much lower than smallpox (R0 of approximately 6.9), and measles (R0 of 12-18, but with substantial variation).

Most secondary infections from SARS and MERS occurred in hospitals, which prevented community spread of the virus. With COVID-19, we may be seeing more secondary infections and subsequent community spread as a result of primary cases not being tested, either due to lack of tests or lack of severe symptoms.

This community spread will continue as we are still having difficulties in identifying and counting mild cases of COVID-19. It currently seems COVID-19 is just as transmissible as SARS and MERS but not as deadly. However, everything we know about the virus, including R0 and case fatality rates, is preliminary and will evolve as the pandemic does.

And so the current data seems to indicate something more akin to smallpox in transmission. You know, the virus that pretty much obliterated the populations of two continents full of people with no immunity to what was for them a "novel" virus.

Let's be nice and pretend that 4% mortality would hold true even though the actual mortality sans medical infrastructure would dwarf that many fold. I roughly estimate that getting to 86% saturation of 7bn people or so is at that profoundly generous rate of mortality is around 6bn infections and 250,000,000 outright deaths. By way of comparison WWII is estimated at 56.4 million including all civilians. So even given the outlandishly optimistic 4% mortality it will kill something like 5 times WWII's total deaths.

This also does not take into account the permanently crippled or those that may hopefully somewhat recover after a lengthy period of intensive therapy, which will largely be unavailable.

This in the face of outright criminal negligence and straight up intentional malice passing for policy in a LOT of places.

This all from a virus alone not including the deaths from upheaval, famine, and the fun point where the global logistics can no longer support things that must never fail such as the 440 nuclear reactors and other processing and "temporary" waste storage facilities, for example.

         

[Fujikoma]

Preach. The shitty thing is we're about to find out the hard way. Hey maybe there will be job openings for me assuming I survive. Such a bleak silver-lining.

[altered]

Here's depressing for you:

I managed to travel across the fucking country without catching the plague. I have been staying in a hotel to isolate. And they put me in a room with a shared doorway to another room. Next room tonight: person is hacking and coughing like mad, all of it dry as hell.

There's no weed smell.

I'm going to catch this fucking thing. While unhoused, without healthcare, in hostile territory, without any way to leave (can't travel with the fucking virus). Fuck me.

[Fujikoma]

I mean, the upside is you could be asymptiomatic the entire time... people continually hock up a lung in the homeless shelters I've stayed at, doesn't mean they have COVID-19, does mean they need a better social safety net (and less tobacco). Real downside is you could spread the thing with zero symptoms.

[The Wizard Joseph]

Here's depressing for you:

I managed to travel across the fucking country without catching the plague. I have been staying in a hotel to isolate. And they put me in a room with a shared doorway to another room. Next room tonight: person is hacking and coughing like mad, all of it dry as hell.

There's no weed smell.

I'm going to catch this fucking thing. While unhoused, without healthcare, in hostile territory, without any way to leave (can't travel with the fucking virus). Fuck me.

I'm almost certainly going to do so as well. My fam has pretty much decided that the Wisconsin supreme court overruling gov Evers' order means there's no threat, even as I explained the meaning of the R₀ figure in context of bars packed FULL of reveling imbeciles. Really I was in it, this whole isolation thing, to protect my dad who has like 6 comorbidities and just today turned 71 initially. In that time I have come to such a state of things that I care not at all if he, I, my fool brothers, or any of my immediate family gets a date with Rona and dies horribly or is crippled for the rest of their shortened ass life. I want to move, anywhere but Wisconsin will do, but do not currently have anywhere to go nor the means to get there. I'm just biding my time and proceeding with several Operations in my interest and to my taste online and spiritually.

Right now I'm just binging on Star Trek Discovery and hoping I get to see them drop the third season before I eventually depart this dumpster fire of a world one way or another. My one caveat is that I won't do myself unless it's necessary for the sake of protecting others in some immediate life or death way. I am giving some STRONG consideration to settling a few scores as things go, but don't see much of a point as nature and ever more unkind circumstance will surely do worse than I ever could to those that may deserve a bit of existential adjustment in my eyes.

And now back to Cosmic horror Murder pron in Space!

[rong]

it's every man for himself

it always has been

[The Wizard Joseph]

it's every man for himself

it always has been

No, it's not.

and

No, it hasn't.

But I can certainly get along without the fuckwits that think so. 

[Fujikoma]

If it was truly every man for himself the social distancing would be adequate.

[rong]

I think the failure of social distancing is why its every man for himself.

[The Wizard Joseph]

I think the failure of social distancing is why its every man for himself.

Still idiotic. If I was the captain of a ship at sea and any memeber of the crew even breathed this I would have them stripped of everything they didn't make themselves from materials they procured personally, set naked in a dinghy, and towed about 20 feet behind the ship with orders that nobody help that fool in any way on pain of death. Putting their money where their mouth is so to speak. Were I subject to law It would be until they abjectly recant at which point they get gagged in the brig and remanded for mutiny once at port. If I smell even a whiff of  intent to actual mutiny or were subject to only my own law at sea it would be until they die of exposure and thirst to set an example. The virus can only be mitigated by disciplined action, and I can do nothing about that, but were it my call I would prove the concept  of "every man for themself" WRONG in no uncertain terms. Everybody's life depends on cooperation, everywhere, all the time.

[rong]

you are not captain of the ship.

I literally just had to throw somebody out of my office (where there is a sign on the door that says, basically, "stay out unless you absolutely positively need to talk to me face to face" - this is my phone number, you can call me on my radio, lets try zoom or email).  This person has not worn a mask since day one.  He literally barged right in - yelling "what are you gonna do now? now that the lock down is being lifted?"

and you're telling me it's not every man for himself?

[Fujikoma]

It's hitting the crisis point, where there's a lot of people who don't understand what every man for himself means, and yet it's getting close to necessary. Can see that in the stupid protests with rifles of governers' orders... yeah... I believe you had to throw that dude out because some people just feel the need to feel powerful in the moment when in the grand scheme of things, they're powerless, which is how they've always been but now they want to start a fuss... Fuck 'em, put 'em in the death boat and watch them suffer.

[Fujikoma]

I suppose the upside, if there is any, is that any armed insurrection that they manage, assuming it even succeeds, is going to be short-lived. They will rue the day, and I seriously hope there's a Hell so they can rue it there. I happen to believe there is, so maybe.

[The Wizard Joseph]

you are not captain of the ship.

I literally just had to throw somebody out of my office (where there is a sign on the door that says, basically, "stay out unless you absolutely positively need to talk to me face to face" - this is my phone number, you can call me on my radio, lets try zoom or email).  This person has not worn a mask since day one.  He literally barged right in - yelling "what are you gonna do now? now that the lock down is being lifted?"

and you're telling me it's not every man for himself?

It's an illustration. The very concept of "every man for themself" is a deadly thought infection and HAS to be cauterized, hard, in a survival scenario.

The arsebiscuit is displaying the very attitude you are advocating for, yet seem to blame him for, yet use to justify the concept.. This pretty much proves the WHOLE point of the illustration.

I have no control over how things will play out, yet giving in to panic and losing all concern for other people IS something I can choose not to do and encourage others to fight the impulse to, even in an apparently, or truly, hopeless situation.