Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in

[altered]

I mean, we all knew this. But still.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/husband-of-reopen-nc-leader-willing-to-kill-people-in-resistance-to-emergency-orders/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

So, I mean, if someone tells you to take off your mask, consider that you could be killed if you don't now. Great world we live in.

I'm fortunate my giant bulky respirator comes with "Acceptable" excuses. Medical masks don't come with "certified badass, mid-boss in an action-horror video game" baked in.

[The Johnny]

I mean, we all knew this. But still.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/husband-of-reopen-nc-leader-willing-to-kill-people-in-resistance-to-emergency-orders/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

So, I mean, if someone tells you to take off your mask, consider that you could be killed if you don't now. Great world we live in.

I'm fortunate my giant bulky respirator comes with "Acceptable" excuses. Medical masks don't come with "certified badass, mid-boss in an action-horror video game" baked in.

Definitely not domestic terrorism

[altered]

No, because it's not about scaring people, it's about scaring the government, who are definitely not people. And people who are not government will know, and no one will misunderstand the message on either side and there will never be a case of mistaken identity.

[Cramulus]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

The CDC updated its planning scenarios--the modeling is now based on data through April 29th. To put that in context, this is the model they are currently offering to governments and hospitals to plan how the disease will affect the population. The website clarifies:

The parameters in the scenarios:

-Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
-Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
-Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.

They break the model into 5 scenarios. Scenarios 1-4 are different assumptions about the disease, ranging from low to high pessimism (scenario 1 assumes low transmission, scenario 4 is a worst case). Scenario 5 is based on the actual data, so it's the current "best guess".

A lot more detail about this on the page I linked. okay, ready for the data?



So if you're caught the disease, and you are displaying symptoms, your chance of death is 0.4%

If you're under 50, your chance is more like %0.05 (1 in 500)

If you're over 65 and have a symptomatic case, your chance of death is much higher, but still less than 1 out of 50 - 1.3%.

Not nearly as bad as the original estimates. That's a relief, right?


Right below that, the chart states that the hospitalization rate for people with a symptomatic case, and are under age 50 is 1.7%.

It also says that aabout 35% of cases are asymptomatic. But asymptomatic cases are still definitely infectious.



If this can be believed, it's good news.

I think these data have a high risk of bad reporting though. Brace yourself I have a feeling we're gonna see a lot of right-wing gaslighting saying "this was never a big deal, we gave up our freedom for nothing". (example)

[rong]

Cram - I think one of us is misreading the chart.  It looks to me that age 0-49 case 5 chance of death is 0.05%

I also think this is good news and it is why I support reopening the economy while still encouraging PPE and social distancing.

It would be nice to have more information about the effects on survivors.  I mean some people survive throwing themselves on a grenade.  What percentage of people spend 2 weeks on death's doorstep?  How long are most people sick for?  Any flu I've ever had really only lasts a couple days and I pretty much bounce right back.  Is this disease similar?  I think 2 weeks of severe flu would have me wishing for the sweet release of death.

[Cramulus]

Cram - I think one of us is misreading the chart.  It looks to me that age 0-49 case 5 chance of death is 0.05%

oh you're right, thanks - I updated my post

[altered]

I will wait for someone who is skilled at this sort of analysis to comment before I say I'm certain, but my gut feeling is that this is fucking garbage. The numbers look like shit.

Quick fake math, but it will do the job:

x * 0.1% = x / 1000
Current US population: roughly 300 mil
Current COVID death count: roughly 100k
300m/1000=300k
Therefore
300m * 0.4% = 1.2m
Therefore, ~10% of the entire US population has been infected
If I'm reading my timeline right, this requires a double digit R0 or that the virus does not respect quarantine or isolation measures at all
And we know that both of these are false because of Vietnam, Korea and Japan.
(Also; if you talk to ten people a day, statistically one of them is or has been infected.)

The numbers stink. Hopefully someone can tell me I'm wrong, but...



FAKE EDIT:

Also, all reports suggest infected individuals stay fucking knocked down from the virus for like 7 weeks in "mild" cases. Like, no heavy lifting, going up or down stairs means it's nap time, have to have someone home at all times in case your fucking heart stops. For 6 or 7 weeks. For a "mild case", with no hospitalization.

From what I have heard, severe to critical cases have no record of patients making a full recovery to date. They aren't infectious, but they are in constant full body pain and can barely move under their own power.

I'll grab sources later if I need to, but a quick google search will show this isn't a single source saying this, it's well accepted fact.

I do not support reopening a goddamned thing right now.

[Cramulus]

I'm having trouble following the math you posted. My 8th grade math teacher is cringing at me (from HELL). But keep in mind that 0.4% (less than half of one percent) isn't the overall death rate, it's the death rate of symptomatic cases. 35% of the overall cases seem to be asymptomatic.


The antibody testing in NYC has been interesting, too: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-new-york-antibody-test-f4fbed78-646f-4b46-90b8-5e8ca75380e4.html

As a whole, 19.9% of New York City has tested positive for antibodies, the preliminary study found. At 27.6%, the Bronx is reporting the highest rate of infection

[Cramulus]

Also, all reports suggest infected individuals stay fucking knocked down from the virus for like 7 weeks in "mild" cases. Like, no heavy lifting, going up or down stairs means it's nap time, have to have someone home at all times in case your fucking heart stops. For 6 or 7 weeks. For a "mild case", with no hospitalization.

My friends that have had (all healthy people in their 30s) it say it was like 2 weeks of hell and then ~2 weeks of weakness / feeling crappy but functional.

[chaotic neutral observer]

Assume that the listed worst case of a 1% fatality rate reflects the current situation, and use these numbers for the USA (99,381 deaths, 1,689,727 active cases).

Assuming that infected people die instantly, we would expect 99381/.01 = 9.94 million symptomatically infected.  (The time lag means the actual number of infected will be higher).  This is already a horrendous mismatch with the 1.69M active case number above, but let's keep going.

Assuming 35% asymptomatic cases, the total number of cases would be (9.94M)/(1-0.35) = 15.3M.

The US population is 331M, so your current infection rate is 4.6%.

If we use the best case fatality rate of 0.2%, then you should have five times as many infected, or ~23% of the population.

Conclusion:  Either the numbers or some of my assumptions are wrong.

(ETA: if we use .4%, like altered did, the current infection rate should be 9.2%).

[altered]

Assume that the listed worst case of a 1% fatality rate reflects the current situation, and use these numbers for the USA (99,381 deaths, 1,689,727 active cases).

Assuming that infected people die instantly, we would expect 99381/.01 = 9.94 million symptomatically infected.  (The time lag means the actual number of infected will be higher).  This is already a horrendous mismatch with the 1.69M active case number above, but let's keep going.

Assuming 35% asymptomatic cases, the total number of cases would be (9.94M)/(1-0.35) = 15.3M.

The US population is 331M, so your current infection rate is 4.6%.

If we use the best case fatality rate of 0.2%, then you should have five times as many infected, or ~23% of the population.

Conclusion:  Either the numbers or some of my assumptions are wrong.

(ETA: if we use .4%, like altered did, the current infection rate should be 9.2%).

I'm really glad to see that my skills at really rough low effort "get in the ballpark" math are still pretty good.

And unhappy but more solidly convinced that this fucking thing is a nightmare that will not end. Things have been changed, probably forever, certainly for as long into the future as I can bear to look.

[altered]

Also, just had another realization about those numbers.

That case fatality rate is pure fucking fantasy.

Very simple basis to say that:

“The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to news reports.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Unfortunately...

“CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated [...] 34,200 deaths from influenza.”
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

“On average, flu season lasts about 13 weeks. It will usually end by April, but in some years it can linger into May.”
https://www.verywellhealth.com/flu-season-from-start-to-peak-and-end-2633835

However....

97,669 COVID deaths in the US
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html#2019coronavirus-summary

First COVID case in the US on Jan 21st
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.amp.html

So 125 days since infection began in the US. 125/7=~17 weeks of “COVID season”.

Simple math here: divide 34k by 13 for flu deaths per week

~2615

and 97k by 17 for COVID deaths per week

~5707.

Oops. That looks fucking way worse than the flu. And we don’t fucking wear masks or socially distance for the goddamn flu.

Confident those numbers are horseshit now.


EDIT: Fixed some math. I woke up minutes ago.

EDIT2: Again.

[altered]

Anyway, it's not all bad news.

https://twitter.com/brennanspiegel/status/1265119535901732865?s=21 (Couldn't get the fucking main link out of it, sorry.)

This is really really good, because it's something that can be reacted to. A sudden spike in the water says a bunch of cases are coming down the pipe. If it's related to causation, we can RAPIDLY prevent spread, like, wipe out the virus level prevention (ignoring animal reservoirs). If it's not, we can allocate resources where they'll be needed almost in real-time.

"Our water has the lowest levels it's been at all month, we'll send you some of these spare ventilators since you're a few days away from a spike like whoa."

That's awesome news.

That said: This is still normal now forever.

[minuspace]

Anyway, it's not all bad news.

https://twitter.com/brennanspiegel/status/1265119535901732865?s=21 (Couldn't get the fucking main link out of it, sorry.)

This is really really good, because it's something that can be reacted to. A sudden spike in the water says a bunch of cases are coming down the pipe. If it's related to causation, we can RAPIDLY prevent spread, like, wipe out the virus level prevention (ignoring animal reservoirs). If it's not, we can allocate resources where they'll be needed almost in real-time.

"Our water has the lowest levels it's been at all month, we'll send you some of these spare ventilators since you're a few days away from a spike like whoa."

That's awesome news.

That said: This is still normal now forever.

My first reaction: nah, it's not causative, that's just hysteresis

[altered]

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1266335781775380480?s=21

Help. Reality is breaking down. It's all turning into a Warren Ellis comic.