Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in

[Cain]

Another interesting tidbit about Brazil is how evangelicals have made inroads into the country's power structure. You'd think a place as nominally Catholic as Brazil might resist such Protestant intrusions more, but apparently not.

[Doktor Howl]

Another interesting tidbit about Brazil is how evangelicals have made inroads into the country's power structure. You'd think a place as nominally Catholic as Brazil might resist such Protestant intrusions more, but apparently not.

Historically-speaking, Catholicism as a 100% rate of producing evangelicals.  There are always people who want to hate even more than the church does.

[Elder Iptuous]

Yeah. I was blown away at the number of Baptist churches I saw!
And they have the giant televangelist megachurches, too.

[altered]

They also have police brutality that the US could only slaver over lustfully, they literally have a special kind of police for the slums that go in with lethal munitions, bomb squad armor and multiple fire teams, and are legally immune to prosecution over use of force. They are technically drug and gang enforcement but for all practical purposes their entire job description is depopulating neighborhoods of innocent people and burning them down.

I had a friend years and years back who once worked for that branch. He quit because of the nightmares, then killed himself about five years back, presumably for the same reason.

[Elder Iptuous]

They have a big budget shoot em up flick from Brazil called Tropo de Elite about them.
Not a bad movie.

[The Johnny]

Ah yes, the famous BOPE (Batalhão de Operações Policiais Especiais)

[altered]

Ah yes, the famous BOPE (Batalhão de Operações Policiais Especiais)

That's the one. The cops other cops aspire to be one day.

[Juana]

Another interesting tidbit about Brazil is how evangelicals have made inroads into the country's power structure. You'd think a place as nominally Catholic as Brazil might resist such Protestant intrusions more, but apparently not.

Prosperity gospel will do that.

[Doktor Howl]

Arizona is a hot fucking mess right now.

[altered]

We are all going to get COVID. It's almost a shame that the bloody cough hasn't returned. I was hoping I could say I didn't have to really worry about getting it.

[The Wizard Joseph]

As a note on death rate based on proportion of outcomes, "recovered" vs dead, the death rate is around 11% in the US.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It's about 9% world wide.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is the real way to measure the death rate. Percentage of deaths vs total cases is a BEST CASE SCENARIO and not actually clinically relevant as most of those cases are what you might call pending on actual outcome.

Based on the 11% outcome mortality that we have now in the US (while still nominally functional on infrastructure and medical systems/supply) the current 2,264,307 active and open cases will yield 249,073 deaths if there are no more infections, miraculously. Added to the 120,691 already confirmed dead we can actually count 369,764 US dead alone. That's as of this post. That is just the dead and no estimate of the folks disabled for life on a spectrum of severity.

By way of comparison for the record WW1 killed 116,516. That is less than a third of where we are at now, and these numbers WILL rise exponentially at the rate of the R₀ covered above.

[chaotic neutral observer]

There's a risk of measurement error, in that we need all cases with outcomes to be reported.  A high proportion of cv-related deaths are likely to be reported, but what about people who had "mild" symptoms, tested positive, recovered, and didn't bother to check in?

The reason I note this, is that Saskatchewan's numbers are significantly different, at 649 resolved cases, with 636 recovered, and 13 dead (2% death rate).  Link.

Now, this has its own statistical problems, since Saskatchewan has a small population, with a low infection rate; but because there are so few people involved, it's easier to keep track of them.

The number I'd like to know is:  Of the reported active cases, how many are "lapsed" (i.e., no new information in three or more weeks?)  If this is a large proportion, then the number of recoveries might be underreported.

[The Johnny]

Today in Mexico:

-165k REPORTED cases
-19.7k deaths

Question: Do we really have 12% mortality case? Cause were not doing in no way at all massive testing.

There has been speculation that we have between 5x up 10x real cases.

5x real cases scenario: 825k cases, 20k deaths = 2% mortality
10x real cases scenario: 1,650k cases, 20k deahts = 1% mortality

Now if you add that Covid deaths sometimes get reported as atypical pneuomonia or whatever, we dont really know what is actually happening.

[Doktor Howl]

Today in Mexico:

-165k REPORTED cases
-19.7k deaths

Question: Do we really have 12% mortality case? Cause were not doing in no way at all massive testing.

There has been speculation that we have between 5x up 10x real cases.

5x real cases scenario: 825k cases, 20k deaths = 2% mortality
10x real cases scenario: 1,650k cases, 20k deahts = 1% mortality

Now if you add that Covid deaths sometimes get reported as atypical pneuomonia or whatever, we dont really know what is actually happening.

What's sad is that this is literally the first news of this out of Mexico that I have heard since you had two cases.

[The Wizard Joseph]

There's a risk of measurement error, in that we need all cases with outcomes to be reported.  A high proportion of cv-related deaths are likely to be reported, but what about people who had "mild" symptoms, tested positive, recovered, and didn't bother to check in?

The reason I note this, is that Saskatchewan's numbers are significantly different, at 649 resolved cases, with 636 recovered, and 13 dead (2% death rate).  Link.

Now, this has its own statistical problems, since Saskatchewan has a small population, with a low infection rate; but because there are so few people involved, it's easier to keep track of them.

The number I'd like to know is:  Of the reported active cases, how many are "lapsed" (i.e., no new information in three or more weeks?)  If this is a large proportion, then the number of recoveries might be underreported.

Looking at a particular outlier is all well and good, but the bigger picture would seem to be the best indicator of overall effect to me. I see little point in assigning an arbitrary "lapsed" time period on open cases and I'm not sure that it would significantly change anything. The fucker can go on for weeks going sometimes suddenly from mild to deadly symptoms in EXTREMELY unpredictable progression.

The asymptomatic and folks that otherwise never get tested are surely a factor that would revise he overall percentage down somewhat, but that is an unknown. What is known is that among the symptomatic that warranted a test and were found to be infected we have outcome data and it's... not good.

We can be sure to see 369,764 US dead and counting, a lot of the counting.