Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in

[Doktor Howl]

We know how it kills, primarily respitory failure, with secondary's closely linked to the same way the flu kills the elderly:

In people with underlying conditions it can cause kidney or other failure from dehydration. Unless you have a link I am doubtful that covid was the primary cause of a five year old dying especially if she asymptomatic.

Cytokine storms don't care.

[Faust]

That can happen, (can happen with a lot of conditions not just Covid) but its not the norm, nor even attributed to a  substantial number of the deaths. Its even rarer that it comes on suddenly, generally its a progression of at least a couple of days

[The Wizard Joseph]

This little argument is a bit... Morbid. Pun out of the way as of a couple months ago (just before cdc shit the bed entirely) the death rate among known cases with no comorbidities was about 6% of cases but that IS NOT a measure of overall fatal action.

https://www.livescience.com/amp/covid-19-comorbidities.html

Now I consider 6% pretty damn significant. That folks who had a perfectly clean bill of health.. But just having a chronic ailment doesn't mean it was the reason you dies at all.

Trump v Fauci in article

"This week the CDC quietly updated the Covid number to admit that only 6% of all the 153,504 deaths recorded actually died from Covid. That's 9,210 deaths. The other 94% had 2 to 3 other serious illnesses and the overwhelming majority were of very advanced age."

"The numbers you've been hearing — there are 180,000-plus deaths — are real deaths from COVID-19. Let there not be any confusion about that,"

Ask yourselves who sounds most like Trump's position here?

Just because someone had a touch of high blood pressure going in doesn't mean they didn't drown in their oun blood, pus, and scar tissue, or suffer CNS, cardiac, or other organ failure, or get eaten by their own immune system, entirely independently of that fact.

1,266,074 deaths globally as of right now.

At 6% (arbitrarily for estimation) that's about 75,960 quite fit people dead just by this little "flu-like" buggerer.

If you like you can say verbally that each was insubstantial. Averaging one per minute you should be done in about 52 days if no further such mortalities come up.

And again I MUST emphasize that in many cases the dead are kinda the lucky ones. Chronic illness "long COVID" is ruining more folks physically, mentally, and financially(US especially here) than I care to think upon.

[Faust]

Sorry, I'm trying not to be morbid, one of the things I've been observing is the comorbidity rates and have been assisting in a small data project on that. I have a form of cystic fibrosis variant, I'm one of the very lucky people that it has just affected my breathing and not pancreas etc, but because of that I wanted to make sure this thing wouldn't kill me (it probably will). So far in Ireland the CF kids (the ones who really show symptoms), have been kept in strict isolation, we haven't had any cases thankfully but the fear is that if they got this it would do them in.

I wasn't disputing the death rates I was examining the asymptomatic sudden death effect you described, so far the deaths we have observed all manifested symptoms at least two to three days before, the date of severe symptoms tends to kick in between the 10-12 day mark. In that girls case the tiredness was one symptom, so not asymptomatic but still considered a mild symptom, a sudden fever could have done whats attributed.

So far we haven't observed otherwise healthy people who suddenly die from this, they all deteriorate, some within a day or so, some over weeks. The total death rate is 5.7, it is closer to 3-4% for the Under fifties and much much higher the older you get. There is an unfortunate effect that has happened in Italy and other places, as soon as the ICU is swamped, and there are no more respirators all further patients chance of survival drops dramatically, its harder to quantify but Ive seen an effective death rate of > 10% if the hospital resources aren't available.

The severity and type of comorbidity directly comes into play on chances of survival, high blood pressure as you say, obvious ones like asthma, etc but its a much smaller pool to work with as I said I have had a sample size of <1000 to examine

[The Wizard Joseph]

Just a horrible note on the current American trends at the moment.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-surge-200-000-cases-042103965.html

The U.S. reported 2,777 coronavirus-related deaths on Wednesday alone, according to an NBC News tally. The country registered nearly 205,000 new cases of Covid-19 on the same day, a figure that comes just a month after the U.S. single-day record topped 100,000 cases for the first time.

Meanwhile, more people than ever are hospitalized. The Covid Tracking Project reported that 100,000 people were hospitalized across the country.

The country has tallied 14,007,908 cases and 274,311 deaths since the pandemic began, according to an NBC News tally.

That's double the daily known new cases in a month. It will almost certainly double again in less than that. That's really all I have to say. Everything else is pretty much upthread.

[The Wizard Joseph]

Update on the British strain. This is the most stressed and carefully controlled of demeanor that I have ever seen the goodhearted and stoic Dr. Campbell. He outright states just after giving folks a summary and an out that there's things that are not being disclosed aboit the Sars CoV2 Variant. It's about 75% more infectious and raises the R0 by .4 but does not mention that on an exponential scale already at 7.5 in a rang of 2 or so that's A LOT.  I have NEVER seen him lie and this is probably the first dissimulation EVER. He is worried about something, but doing his best to inform calmly and rationally what he can reveal.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MINIibH2Iaw&t=1092s

[Faust]

Yep, 70 percent more infectious at least from the sample pool, I'm just going off the last few days of data on this next bit from one of the doctors working there, and though this strain isn't direcyly more deadly, it will fill the ICU's faster and thus increase the mortality rate if there arent available respirators, he said to me that a lot of the new more serious cases are younger people. But it isn't immediatly clear if that is because more young people are catching it, or that it is more symptomatic in them, either way they its an odd effect, if the trend holds true

[Cain]

Yeah, this is one reason why the government clamped down so hard over the last few days (the other being it's not a UK government response if it doesn't involve a wild and unforseen change in policy at the last minute). Either way, the infection rate is extremely worrying, given how infectious the normal strains of Covid are.

[The Wizard Joseph]

A little something brought to my attention when Nigel shared it on FB. It speaks to the scope of the pluriform, often drastic, and perpetual mutations happening in a much more technical sense and... It's not good news. One of them just developed a whole genetic branch of some sort apparently out of the blue in a manner never seen before and for reasons unknown for certain. But given my dream about The Demon Hydra earlier this year I am by no means suprised.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/mutant-coronavirus-united-kingdom-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear

[The Wizard Joseph]

A note on ongoing zoonotic spread.

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/11/955782284/two-gorillas-in-california-contract-the-coronavirus?utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com

[MMIX]

A totally serious update on Covid regs in SE Wales
NEW LOCKDOWN PROTOCOLS FOR BLAENAU GWENT AND SURROUNDING AREAS
Cwm - You are able to fight your neighbour providing you wear a mask and social distancing rules are adhered to.
GILWERN - you can do anything you want. 1. because your special. And 2 because you would anyway; you have never done rules as you're too posh
NEWTOWN - You can only visit your dealer when collecting your children from school. The dealer should wear a face visor and make sure all bags are sanitised.
BLAINA - Having sex with your sister is still permitted but you must be home before 10pm and use approved lubricant.
BRYNMAWR SQUARE - Vigilante groups of no more than six allowed outdoors and socially distancing between the hours of 10pm - 2am only. You must wear suitable PPE for any physical contact.
RASSAU - Prostitute services are still permitted to remain open, this is now classed as essential services for fear of the economic collapse of the city. Entry from the rear only
THE GURNOUS - Declared a NO GO ZONE (in 1984), if you must travel to this area please follow all diversions, traffic cones and signals, remain in your car, do not abandon your car, masks are not required as nothing is open
ABERTILLERY - Everyone must remain at home and self isolate until manufacturers can distribute gloves with 6 fingers. Please do not go to A&E for digit removal as they are a tad busy.
CRICKHOWELL - The wearing of Pink trousers is a must. Travel to and from CRICKHOWELL must only be by at least a 30ft limo with no more than 5 other Pimms drinking tossers.
TREDEGAR - Do as you want, even Covid wouldn't go to TREDEGAR

[ReverendJesus]

A totally serious update on Covid regs in SE Wales
NEW LOCKDOWN PROTOCOLS FOR BLAENAU GWENT AND SURROUNDING AREAS
Cwm - You are able to fight your neighbour providing you wear a mask and social distancing rules are adhered to.
GILWERN - you can do anything you want. 1. because your special. And 2 because you would anyway; you have never done rules as you're too posh
NEWTOWN - You can only visit your dealer when collecting your children from school. The dealer should wear a face visor and make sure all bags are sanitised.
BLAINA - Having sex with your sister is still permitted but you must be home before 10pm and use approved lubricant.
BRYNMAWR SQUARE - Vigilante groups of no more than six allowed outdoors and socially distancing between the hours of 10pm - 2am only. You must wear suitable PPE for any physical contact.
RASSAU - Prostitute services are still permitted to remain open, this is now classed as essential services for fear of the economic collapse of the city. Entry from the rear only
THE GURNOUS - Declared a NO GO ZONE (in 1984), if you must travel to this area please follow all diversions, traffic cones and signals, remain in your car, do not abandon your car, masks are not required as nothing is open
ABERTILLERY - Everyone must remain at home and self isolate until manufacturers can distribute gloves with 6 fingers. Please do not go to A&E for digit removal as they are a tad busy.
CRICKHOWELL - The wearing of Pink trousers is a must. Travel to and from CRICKHOWELL must only be by at least a 30ft limo with no more than 5 other Pimms drinking tossers.
TREDEGAR - Do as you want, even Covid wouldn't go to TREDEGAR

Was laughing at the first line, and all the way through. Mittens.

[altered]

I've been forced into a COVID risk situation against my will. Homelessness caught up with me before work did, yet again, and I had a lot of last minute shit to try to track down. In the end, a contact found a contact who knew someone who would take me in if I quarantined for a week. The only place I could quarantine: an airbnb.

Well, now a pack of partying college kids rolled in. They don't know each other ("what's your name?"), they're blasting music and drinking and shouting and shit. There's 2 rooms in this place, I'm in one, there's /at least/ three of them.

Quarantine: broken. I got no fucking chance to react before it was too fucking late. So I have nowhere to go after the next few days, because I have no money to quarantine /again/, nowhere to do it that's feasible, and the people I was quarantining for are almost certain to say "fuck that, too much risk."

I'd fucking ruin their night if I wasn't worried about the cops being what some white college kids jump to.

[altered]

Another two just fucking arrived.

TWO FUCKING MORE. FIVE FUCKING PEOPLE MINIMUM.

[The Wizard Joseph]

Sorry to hear that altered. I am likewise on the bare edge in some several ways and only have a place to be because I am accepting extremely high risks of infection and infecting others, and may yet not make rent in any case. The only good news is that the weather in New Orleans is warming up notably already and I have managed to expand a meaningful social network in fairly short order. The fact that I must consider social expansion during a profoundly dangerous pandemic a "good" thing fucks with me a bit, but I gave my last fuck out what seems a very long time ago now.

What city are you currently in?