Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in

[Faust]

So... Fauci is apparently a bit concerned about the vaccine resistance of the new kids, South Africa in particular. It's gonna be a long, dangerous ride before we're out of the woods. Also we may at this point never really be completely out of the woods.

https://www.businessinsider.com/vaccine-data-a-wake-up-call-on-new-covid-variant-2021-1

Very prescient on South Africa

[Faust]

I dont like the Telegraph but what are the toughts on any substance on this?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

Playing it out in my head:
They suspected this was a lab-leak from China
Knew that China would never accept responsibility, or any kind of investigation
They could even react to an accusation of such with hostility and the last thing we want is a pandemic and a war at the same time

[Cramulus]

My current opinion:

unless they find some damn good evidence, it's not a conversation worth having.

I think that people are really hungry for a smoking gun, and whether or not there's one in China, the media salivation over it is.. troubling at best.

Like--unpacking discussions that people had in February 2020, based on imperfect information, is not going to go anywhere cool.

If there was better evidence, we'd have heard it--so far, these articles all pump up correlation and conjecture, and an occasional appeal to authority. It's a weak pretense for an international debacle. All that's happening right now is people going "IF china was behind this, WE'LL BE SO MAD"...


Yeah, and if the USA found WMDs in Iraq, it would have been SO MAD....

[Faust]

Fair point, everyone wants a villain and reason for the frustrations of the last couple of years but that wont accomplish anything, could never be proven definitively and unless it leads to better security measures in any virology labs working with gain function samples (which it probably wouldn't) it would just turn into a xenophobic racial mistrust that may not even have any real basis.

[rong]

The best evidence I've heard - mainly due to some potential amount of verifiability - is that china restricted air travel from wuhan to other parts of china but not the rest of the world.  This seems to be a good indicator of early knowledge of something bad and intent to cause harm to the rest of the world.  Not that there's anything I can do about it. . .

[Nibor the Priest]

Almost as if east Asian countries have experience of respiratory coronaviruses, and it's easier to shut down the air routes you have a state monopoly on.

(I don't think it's a particularly wild notion that they put the safety of China before the safety of everywhere else, but that hardly singles them out.)

[Cramulus]

The best evidence I've heard - mainly due to some potential amount of verifiability - is that china restricted air travel from wuhan to other parts of china but not the rest of the world.  This seems to be a good indicator of early knowledge of something bad and intent to cause harm to the rest of the world.  Not that there's anything I can do about it. . .

there's a lot of conflicting reporting about these facts and what they mean. So, it's up to you how credible this is....
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/05/trumps-flawed-china-travel-conspiracy/

[Cain]

I dont like the Telegraph but what are the toughts on any substance on this?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/

Playing it out in my head:
They suspected this was a lab-leak from China
Knew that China would never accept responsibility, or any kind of investigation
They could even react to an accusation of such with hostility and the last thing we want is a pandemic and a war at the same time

I put very little stock in it for several reasons:

1. The Telegraph. While historically their links with MI6 and the MoD are good, that doesn't mean much when the MoD and MI6 are crazy.
2. There has been a big push to try and blame this on China by elements in the US and UK with very little evidence. While China's actions in pressuring the WHO to look less seriously are suspect, given the largely unfounded push to try and blame them, it's a lot more understandable.
3. It seems an unncessary complication over the key facts of how we understand viruses generally break out. It's also definitely possible that there were some elements of mishandling at a lab, but at the same time if China was doing anything with a virus, they'd make something far deadlier and far less likely to blowback on them with this. In other words, it would be an accident at worst, not an act of war.
4. Chinese military doctrine does favour unconventional approaches, but it also doesn't generally favour WMDs. For example, look at China's nuclear missile stockpile in comparison with Russia and the US. Their policy is minimal credible deterrence combined with overwhelming conventional forces deployed in novel arrangements.

[Doktor Howl]

We're averaging 760,000 new cases a day, go us!

[Faust]

That's 2% of the population every ten days, what the fuck?
The good news on that is its unsustainable..

[POFP]

We're averaging 760,000 new cases a day, go us!

It's so bad, my employer did the unthinkable, and postponed our return to the office by

5 WHOLE FUCKING DAYS

How am I supposed to meet my social interaction quota for this month without our Back To The Office Party? My Productivity for the entire year will suffer.

Won't SOMEBODY think of the bottom line?

[Doktor Howl]

Almost as if east Asian countries have experience of respiratory coronaviruses, and it's easier to shut down the air routes you have a state monopoly on.

(I don't think it's a particularly wild notion that they put the safety of China before the safety of everywhere else, but that hardly singles them out.)

Just where the hell have you been?