Maybe, I don't see the tumblr format working for the casual twitter user, its not going to be the lifeboat they jump into. The niche groups might, but most already had a tumblr account or ironically, aren't moving from twitter because "its bigger then Elon", they are seeing the same effect, we did the party had already moved on to Instagram and ticktok and the same way FB/Twitter/Reddit pulled from long form discussion forums, they are now being eaten by an even more attention deficit medium.
In 2011 90% of this sites traffic was desktop with some mobile, as of this year that has completely reversed, mobile first, but that medium does not lend itself to text creation, content consumption, hence video and pictures end up having the gravity for the traffic.