http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/cyprus-bailout-backlash-poses-little-wider-risk-now-1C8901508
Hah, yes.
Was going to be digging more into this, when I have a clear head tomorrow, but my initial impressions are: are the Germans TRYING to cause a run on peripheral European banks? Because that is what this policy will do.
Quote from: Cain on March 18, 2013, 08:32:47 PM
Hah, yes.
Was going to be digging more into this, when I have a clear head tomorrow, but my initial impressions are: are the Germans TRYING to cause a run on peripheral European banks? Because that is what this policy will do.
Yep. It HAS to be deliberate.
"Hey, guys, we're going to take 10% of the contents of your bank accounts. Nobody panic."
And then they closed the banks.
Also pisses off the Russians, who do a lot of money-laundering in Cyprus.
Eurocrats are digging their heels in, and saying it's their way or the highway. Which in this case, is the Systemic Banking Failure Highway. But, apparently, the European Commission was backed into a corner by the IMF, in concert with the Finnish and Dutch governments.
Quote from: Cain on March 18, 2013, 09:07:02 PM
Also pisses off the Russians, who do a lot of money-laundering in Cyprus.
Eurocrats are digging their heels in, and saying it's their way or the highway. Which in this case, is the Systemic Banking Failure Highway. But, apparently, the European Commission was backed into a corner by the IMF, in concert with the Finnish and Dutch governments.
This is sort of like watching someone point a gun at their own junk, yelling "COME ANY CLOSER AND JIMMY GETS IT!"
I approve of this fiscal armageddon.
I'm withdrawing my savings tomorrow. Not because I fear they will rape taxed in the short term, but if Ireland was to need another bailout somewhere down the line it could happen then. I will be finding alternative places to squirrel it away such as gold or a bank account outside of the Euro zone.
Comedy option:
I'll put it all in bitcoin.
So, the first thing that should be mentioned I suppose, is that there is a German election in September. Given how unpopular the Greek loans were, one can see there is a short time political aspect to how the German government is approaching this crisis. To build on the above example, Germany may shoot it's own junk off, but Merkel remains in charge of a junkless Germany.
And when we get right down to the nitty gritty, it's my belief that most politicians would agree with Milton's Satan about ruling in hell as opposed to serving in heaven.
Interestingly, this builds on measures that were put in place in Greece, where sovereign and and bank bond holders were taxed, but were at the time described as a one-off measure.
In the long term, this will cause European banks significant issues in trying to raise money, as people justifiably fear their meagre savings being taxed. In other words, this makes future bail-outs, especially in the European periphery more likely. It also raises questions about the range of options the ECB is willing to employ, and thus the overall financial credibility of the Eurozone.
And, to top all this off, the Cypriot government still has yet to vote on the measures, and the new government there may not be able to pass them. If they cannot, expect a financial collapse in Cyprus. It was my understanding that, when negotiating, PM Nicos Anastasiades arranged for certain provisions to protect small depositers, and was given a number of reassurances along that line, but somewhere in all the wheeling and dealing, the Germans reneged on their promise. Whatever happens, I am fairly sure the Germans have made yet another nation their enemy.
Quote from: Faust on March 18, 2013, 10:54:10 PM
I'm withdrawing my savings tomorrow. Not because I fear they will rape taxed in the short term, but if Ireland was to need another bailout somewhere down the line it could happen then. I will be finding alternative places to squirrel it away such as gold or a bank account outside of the Euro zone.
Comedy option:
I'll put it all in bitcoin.
LAIL.
Rumour is suggesting that the German plan is to reduce the size of the Cypriot banking industry. The more benevolent explanation is that this is to reduce it to the Eurozone average...the less benevolent explanation is to allow their own banks to pick up on lost Cypriot business.
Considering that business is Russian money laundering, does Germany want that kind of business?
To be clear, I only have knowlege of the US financial rules, where money laundering can put you in extremely deep shit.
When you're not HSBC, or Wells Fargo, or...
Also, remember what all the banks have been after since 2008? That sweet, sweet drug money...they'll launder it for organized crime, and it keeps them capitalized. It's been strongly suggested that drug money was the only thing that prevented several large banks from collpasing in the wake of the credit crisis.
Quote from: Reuters"The feeling I'm having is that the house is going to reject the bill," President Nicos Anastasiades told reporters. Asked why, he added: "Because they feel and they think that it is unjust and it's against the interests of Cyprus at large."
Asked what he would do next, he said: "We have our own plans."
Uh huh. Your finance minister seems to disagree, which is why he apparently tried to quit his job today.
Quote from: Cain on March 19, 2013, 01:17:08 PM
When you're not HSBC, or Wells Fargo, or...
Also, remember what all the banks have been after since 2008? That sweet, sweet drug money...they'll launder it for organized crime, and it keeps them capitalized. It's been strongly suggested that drug money was the only thing that prevented several large banks from collpasing in the wake of the credit crisis.
Just to back up my claims
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/dec/13/drug-money-banks-saved-un-cfief-claims
QuoteDrugs money worth billions of dollars kept the financial system afloat at the height of the global crisis, the United Nations' drugs and crime tsar has told the Observer.
Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.
OH, GOODY.
I gotta get out of this racket.
Puts the whole "we can't prosecute HSBC for laundering billions in drugs money" in a whole new light, doesn't it?
Via an anonymous source in Madrid:
Quote"...Far more significant is a growing sense here that Germany is up to something big, perhaps even a decision to get the hell out of the euro. It simply isn't credible to suggest that Schäuble didn't know what effect this Cyprus deal would have. After the briefing against Draghi last week, I think the smart money is on a selfish move by Berlin, but Merkel won't want to do that before the elections there – unless she wants to spike the anti-eurozone guns by getting out before it all goes tits up. You have to see this Cyprus haircut as an attempt by the Finance men in Berlin and Frankfurt to test the water. There's no other logical explanation. But Merkel isn't a risk-taker. To be frank, almost none of it makes sense right now".
Cyprus has rejected the German plan. And their finance minister (who has not apparently resigned) is in Moscow.
Hmmm.
Quote from: Cain on March 19, 2013, 05:22:21 PM
Quote from: Cain on March 19, 2013, 01:17:08 PM
When you're not HSBC, or Wells Fargo, or...
Also, remember what all the banks have been after since 2008? That sweet, sweet drug money...they'll launder it for organized crime, and it keeps them capitalized. It's been strongly suggested that drug money was the only thing that prevented several large banks from collpasing in the wake of the credit crisis.
Just to back up my claims
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/dec/13/drug-money-banks-saved-un-cfief-claims
QuoteDrugs money worth billions of dollars kept the financial system afloat at the height of the global crisis, the United Nations' drugs and crime tsar has told the Observer.
Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result.
Fuck.
This (http://www.cyprus.com/cyprus-bailout-stupidity-short-sightedness-something-else-.html) is a really good article.
QuoteThe Cyprus sovereign has not been particularly profligate. Debt to GDP as late as last year was in the low 70% range, lower than Germany, etc. While the last Communist government ran unnecessary fiscal deficits, the new government was elected with a more or less 'austerity' orientation
QuoteBanking assets are about 7.1x GDP relative to the EU average of 3.5x GDP and similar to Ireland and Malta.
Luxembourg, by contrast, where Anglo-Saxon firms do their tax arbitrage has banking assets of 21x GDP. So, Cyprus's exposure is similar to that of an economy that has large financial services sector, but that still has a real economy too. It is not Luxembourg nor the Cayman Islands nor the Bahamas nor the Channel Islands and so on.
QuoteWhat is even more absurd is that this is not a bail-in of Depositors of Bank A to rescue Bank A, but a bail-in of Depositors of Banks A-Z to rescue Depositors of Bank A (Laiki), B (Bank of Cyprus) and C (maybe some small amounts to the others).
This is one of the reasons that the Russians are howling mad. There are 3B dollars of Russian money in a subsidiary of VTB in Cyprus, a perfectly solvent Russian bank. As far as I can tell, they will be haircut in order to bail out Laiki, a bank that they never deposited money in. On the contrary, the depositors in Laiki's branches in Greece (aka a totally insolvent bank in a much more insolvent sovereign) will not be haircut.
QuoteThe large account holders (large being defined as above 100K) are not just fat-cat hedge funds (as if 100K makes you a fat-cat) but the operating accounts of basically every business of size in Cyprus.
BoC and Laiki are the whole money center system of Cyprus and basically you cannot transact business in Cyprus if you are of any size and avoid them.
So, the chaos that is going to emerge when checking accounts, payroll accounts, escrow accounts, pensions, trusts, payments-in-transit and so on are arbitrarily haircut is going to be massive – both in disrupted business operations and small business bankruptcies, but also in thousands of legal disputes.
QuoteYou will haircut 10% of deposits on day 1 to make up a capital shortfall and promptly watch 30% of the rest of the deposits flee the country, leading to a much bigger capital hole that Europe will have to fill.
In addition, this will severely cramp Cyprus's main economic driver the last 2 years (selling real estate, tourism and accounting services to Russians) so any concept that it will make the debt "more sustainable" comes from a lunatic place in financial modeling. Cyprus is a 78% services-based economy. So, if you assume that GDP growth is exactly the same before and after you confiscate the assets of your clients, well, I have a solvent Cypriot bank to sell to you...
This is so obviously risky, that the more paranoid commentators believe it is a deliberate plan by Germany to end up as a multi-deca-billion creditor to Cyprus to which the pledging its oil and gas reserves is the only solution. I don't think this is the case, but boy it is getting hard to believe that they are this short-sighted.
Personally, I think the paranoids might have a point.
Krugman has this to say:
QuoteThe Germans don't want a Cyprus collapse / exit from the euro, but they also don't want the spectacle of German taxpayers bailing out Russian money-launderers. So what they did instead was blackmail Cyprus into having Cypriot depositors bail out Russian money-launderers. That way Germany's hands are clean.
But that makes no sense, given the information in the above article. Indeed, going by that, the Russian mobsters are taking a haircut to bail out Laiki, which is having problems due to overexposure in Greece. And the Russian government is pissed about the whole process. I won't given credence to the more lunatic proclamations against the Russian government or Putin, but even I'm not going to admit the government over there is not heavily intertwined with organized crime.
Krugman doesn't know what he's talking about.
The response of the German government to the vote: "nice economy you got there. Would be a shame if anything were to happen to it."
Teh Beeb (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21854353):
QuoteGermany's finance minister has warned Cyprus that its crisis-stricken banks may never be able to reopen if it rejects the terms of a bailout.
Wolfgang Schaeuble said major Cypriot banks were "insolvent if there are no emergency funds".
Quote from: Cain on March 20, 2013, 12:50:53 PM
The response of the German government to the vote: "nice economy you got there. Would be a shame if anything were to happen to it."
Teh Beeb (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21854353):
QuoteGermany's finance minister has warned Cyprus that its crisis-stricken banks may never be able to reopen if it rejects the terms of a bailout.
Wolfgang Schaeuble said major Cypriot banks were "insolvent if there are no emergency funds".
His name. :lol:
WOLFGANG.
Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on March 20, 2013, 01:49:12 PM
Quote from: Cain on March 20, 2013, 12:50:53 PM
The response of the German government to the vote: "nice economy you got there. Would be a shame if anything were to happen to it."
Teh Beeb (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21854353):
QuoteGermany's finance minister has warned Cyprus that its crisis-stricken banks may never be able to reopen if it rejects the terms of a bailout.
Wolfgang Schaeuble said major Cypriot banks were "insolvent if there are no emergency funds".
His name. :lol:
WOLFGANG.
:lulz: :horrormirth: :lulz:
I seem to recall something about the percentage of dirty money in cyprus being way over the legitimate funds.
I wonder how much of that money is Russian? There's certainly a lot of UK dirty cash there, surely that would be pocket change compared to Russian funds?
From the article I posted above
Quote20B of the 70B of deposits are non-EU (aka Russia/CIS) which, while meaningful (28%), hardly dominate the system
This is exactly what happens when I post without reading links first.
Back to the quiet corner for me.
So Cypress 's finance minister was in Russia yesterday and now we are getting rumours of a Russian naval base being established in cypress.
Cypress has seen what Europe did to Greece. Greece, Russia and the Greeks in Cypress are all orthodox. I wonder how uneasy the Turkish part of the Island is feeling right now.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139069/yuri-m-zhukov/trouble-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-sea
QuoteIn recent years, resource disputes in the South China Sea have made headlines across the world. But another body of water -- the Mediterranean -- is rapidly becoming as volatile as its eastern cousin. Exploratory drilling near the coasts of Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey has unearthed vast reserves of natural gas. Competition over the rights to tap those resources is compounding existing tensions over sovereignty and maritime borders. Without more active engagement by outside powers, these disagreements will be difficult to resolve.
QuoteSince Cyprus signed a maritime border agreement with Israel in 2010, it has become the second main beneficiary of the gas boom. The island straddles Israel's most likely gas export route to European markets. Cyprus also lays claim to its own gas deposits. The Aphrodite field, which is adjacent to Leviathan, may contain up to seven tcf of natural gas -- enough to meet Greek Cypriot domestic consumption needs for decades to come. Yet even that field is contested by others. The breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus claims co-ownership of the island's natural resources and has opposed Nicosia's attempts to unilaterally secure offshore drilling contracts.
Like Northern Cyprus and Lebanon, Turkey has viewed the Israeli-Cypriot gas bonanza with apprehension. Ankara does not recognize Cyprus' border agreements with its neighbors and fears that Turkish Cypriots will be excluded from Nicosia's future gas profits. Turkey also sees a possible gas export route through Cyprus and Greece as a threat to its own ambitions as a transit country feeding Caspian and Central Asian gas to the European market. Ankara has thus protested cooperation between Israel and Cyprus and supported Lebanon's position in boundary disputes with Israel. Upping the ante, Turkey has scheduled major naval exercises to coincide with drilling by Greek Cypriot contractors and has sent its own exploration vessels to disputed waters, threatening to drill on behalf of Turkish Cypriots in the Aphrodite field -- which lies partly within Israel's economic zone.
QuoteIsrael and Cyprus see Russia as a source of both technical expertise and potential political support. Russia has repeatedly affirmed Cyprus' right to explore offshore deposits in its exclusive economic zone. And the Russian navy has sought to restore its once-formidable local presence -- which peaked at 96 warships during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, declined to between five and eight by 1991, and fell to zero throughout most of the post–Cold War period. Since 2011, Russia has conducted three series of naval exercises in the Mediterranean, on a scale unseen since Soviet times. The latest round, in January 2013, involved more than 20 surface warships and submarines from the Black Sea, Baltic, and Northern fleets, as well as long-range aviation from the Fourth Air and Air Defense Forces Command. The exercises covered more than 21,000 nautical miles and tested the resilience of command and control systems in a range of scenarios -- from disaster management and counterterrorism to air defense and antisubmarine warfare. Commenting on the exercises, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, "We are not interested in further destabilization of the Mediterranean region, and the presence of our fleet is an unconditional factor of stability."
The more you know, and all that.
Wow. :lulz:
You dicks looked like you had too much fun with that cuban missile crisis. We want our own.
Quote from: Faust on March 22, 2013, 04:36:27 PM
You dicks looked like you had too much fun with that cuban missile crisis. We want our own.
It's great fun, and cheap at twice the price! :lulz:
Well, the Germans buying it all up as part of a Great Cypriot closing down sale (everything must go!) will certainly ease matters.
Har.
Har.
Har.
Here's a fairly decent article, from a Russian POV
http://darussophile.com/2013/03/21/the-western-medias-war-against-cyprus-and-russia/
QuoteIf you ever manage to get a troupe as diverse as Latynina, Mark Adomanis, the Cypriot Communist Party, virtually every financial analyst, Prokhorov, and Putin united in condemning your crass stupidity and cack-handedness, it's probably time to stop and ponder. But it's safe to say that's not what the Troika – the European Commission, European Central Bank, and IMF – tasked with managing the European sovereign debt crisis is going to be doing any time soon.
QuoteMany Western papers even went so far as to hint that the reason Russia was so "concerned" about Cyprus was because Putin and other members of his inner circle had money in Cyprus. This was echoed by the (viciously anti-Putin) Russian business newspaper Vedomosti, which alleged that "it is hard to believe, but it appears as if European politicians are ready to risk a lot in order to pressure a certain influential politician secretly hiding money in Cypriot banks." They did not have the courage of their convictions to say it outright, but the hidden subtext is obvious to all. We call these conspiracy theories. Were this true, in fact, it would be indicative of severe schizophrenia on Putin's part – that is, if he actually DID have quadrillions parked in Nicosia - considering that previous discussions on Russian loans to Cyprus had been linked to Cyprus becoming more proactive about revealing the identities of Russians with bank accounts there to the Russian tax authorities.
QuoteI don't pretend to have any precise idea of how things will develop now – Will Cyprus hurtle out of the Eurozone? Will contagion spread to Spain and Portugal? Will Gazprom get exploration rights to the recently discovered oil fields in return for loans? Will China get involved? – but a few things I think we can be pretty sure of: (1) The ECB/Eurocrat class are either utterly, frightfully oblivious, or have altogether darker ulterior motives; (2) The Cypriot banking system is finished; (3) It will be a reality check for Russians who firmly believe their assets are automatically safe abroad and will help the de-offshoring process, though I don't expect any sudden radical changes because there are still plenty of alternatives like Latvia which I hear is getting pretty hot with Russian money nowadays.
Good news: the EU is functionally retarded (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9952979/Cyprus-bail-out-savers-will-be-raided-to-save-euro-in-future-crises-says-eurozone-chief.html).
QuoteSavings accounts in Spain, Italy and other European countries will be raided if needed to preserve Europe's single currency by propping up failing banks, a senior eurozone official has announced.
The new policy will alarm hundreds of thousands of British expatriates who live and have transferred their savings, proceeds from house sales and other assets to eurozone bank accounts in countries such as France, Spain and Italy.
The euro fell on global markets after Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch chairman of the eurozone, announced that the heavy losses inflicted on depositors in Cyprus would be the template for future banking crises across Europe.
Quote from: Cain on March 26, 2013, 11:05:52 AM
Good news: the EU is functionally retarded (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9952979/Cyprus-bail-out-savers-will-be-raided-to-save-euro-in-future-crises-says-eurozone-chief.html).
QuoteSavings accounts in Spain, Italy and other European countries will be raided if needed to preserve Europe's single currency by propping up failing banks, a senior eurozone official has announced.
The new policy will alarm hundreds of thousands of British expatriates who live and have transferred their savings, proceeds from house sales and other assets to eurozone bank accounts in countries such as France, Spain and Italy.
The euro fell on global markets after Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch chairman of the eurozone, announced that the heavy losses inflicted on depositors in Cyprus would be the template for future banking crises across Europe.
It's not retarded, It's a game of Go For Broke played on a national scale. First one to the bottom wins.
Serious note: So I guess that means all the senior policy makers in the EU have their money safely outside the Euro zone now?
First I've seen of the gas angle, It'll be good to get some practice here before heading back to the falklands.
Quote from: Cain on March 26, 2013, 11:05:52 AM
Good news: the EU is functionally retarded (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9952979/Cyprus-bail-out-savers-will-be-raided-to-save-euro-in-future-crises-says-eurozone-chief.html).
QuoteSavings accounts in Spain, Italy and other European countries will be raided if needed to preserve Europe's single currency by propping up failing banks, a senior eurozone official has announced.
The new policy will alarm hundreds of thousands of British expatriates who live and have transferred their savings, proceeds from house sales and other assets to eurozone bank accounts in countries such as France, Spain and Italy.
The euro fell on global markets after Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch chairman of the eurozone, announced that the heavy losses inflicted on depositors in Cyprus would be the template for future banking crises across Europe.
Toldja. :lulz:
Just wait for that to become retroactive when greece or spain gets uppity.
Quote from: Junkenstein on March 26, 2013, 07:57:43 PM
Just wait for that to become retroactive when greece or spain gets uppity.
This is better than Iraq, for blatant daylight robbery. :lulz:
http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2013/03/26/why-russia-refused-to-bailout-cyprus/#axzz2OenqKl4n
QuoteRussia's largest trading partner remains the EU; Moscow is dependent on revenues from gas sales to Europe. The bottom line: Moscow has far more to lose than gain from aggressively reacting to the crisis.
HERP DERP RUSSIA IS THE NEXT SOVIET UNION BUT WITH GANGSTERS AND HATES THE WEST. WHY THEY NOT RUB OUR NOSES IN OUR FAILURE AND BUY UP CLIENT STATES?
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/cyprus-and-revisionism/
QuoteRussia and China aren't very interested in collecting client states, but then why would anyone have thought that they were? It is mostly Westerners and American hawks in particular that are always ready to interpret actions by other major powers as evidence of their "expansionism" or "revisionism," and most of the time neither of these is happening. Clients can be or eventually become expense liabilities that cause the patron more headaches and problems than they are worth, so it is not very likely that risk-averse, self-interested states are going to fritter away many resources on current clients or on the acquisition of new ones. If these states already have a few clients, they aren't going to abandon them entirely, but they're hardly ready to go to the wall for them, either.
Meanwhile, here are the conditions of the 10 billion bailout:
QuoteRestrictions in daily withdrawals
Ban on premature termination of time savings deposits
Compulsory renewal of all time savings deposits upon maturity
Conversion of current accounts to time deposits
Ban or restrictions on non cash transactions
Restrictions on use of debit, credit or prepaid debit cards
Ban or restriction on cashing in checks
Restrictions on domestic interbank transfers or transfers within the same bank
Restrictions on the interactions/transactions of the public with credit institutions
Restrictions on movements of capital, payments, transfers
Any other measure which the Finance Minister or the Governor of Cyprus Central Bank see necessary for reasons of public order and safety
Interestingly, none of the 10 billion provided by the EU is allowed to be used for the bailout itself, but instead must be put towards "financial restructuring", which will be explained in a memorandum of understanding at a later date.
So would this be the same kind of "financial restructuring" that allows you to put all the debt into one easy monthly payment?
It would seem to fix nothing, just establish a regime to repay. Some of those look designed to piss people off and/or kill any chance of recovery
I mean:
Compulsory renewal of all time savings deposits upon maturity
Conversion of current accounts to time deposits
Ban or restrictions on non cash transactions
Restrictions on use of debit, credit or prepaid debit cards
That's a sure mix for a happy island. Black Market Ahoy!
Also, since Euros in Cyprus cannot be transferred elsewhere, they've essentially created the worst of both worlds...the Cypriots get their own currency, but they cannot control it. It's pegged to the same value as a real Euro but is worth less, since it can only be spent in Cyprus.
That'll never cause problems.
wait... so is it all current accounts that will be converted to time savings accounts? (CDs here in the states, i had to look that up)
and they are mandatory to renew as such upon maturity? just this once, or from now on?
wtf. that's crazy.
Either way, I'm sure more than a few folk will die in the meantime. I wonder who gets to hold on to the cash? Banks in the bset of times have been reluctant to release funds to beneficiaries.
It's also an interesting way to lock money in a country. I can't work out the benefit of that exactly though.
Quote from: Junkenstein on March 27, 2013, 02:11:26 PM
Either way, I'm sure more than a few folk will die in the meantime. I wonder who gets to hold on to the cash? Banks in the bset of times have been reluctant to release funds to beneficiaries.
It's also an interesting way to lock money in a country. I can't work out the benefit of that exactly though.
Triage?
Quote from: P3nT4gR4m on March 27, 2013, 09:07:38 PM
Quote from: Junkenstein on March 27, 2013, 02:11:26 PM
Either way, I'm sure more than a few folk will die in the meantime. I wonder who gets to hold on to the cash? Banks in the bset of times have been reluctant to release funds to beneficiaries.
It's also an interesting way to lock money in a country. I can't work out the benefit of that exactly though.
Triage?
Optimist.
It's peonage on a national scale.
Point!
Quote from: P3nT4gR4m on March 27, 2013, 10:10:16 PM
Point!
Yep. The Germans finally won. Third time's a charm.
Well well welll.... (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/29/us-cyprus-parliament-idUSBRE92G03I20130329)
QuoteUnder conditions expected to be announced on Saturday, depositors in Bank of Cyprus will get shares in the bank worth 37.5 percent of their deposits over 100,000 euros, the source told Reuters, while the rest of their deposits may never be paid back.
The toughening of the terms will send a clear signal that the bailout means the end of Cyprus as a hub for offshore finance and could accelerate economic decline on the island and bring steeper job losses.
Officials had previously spoken of a loss to big depositors of 30 to 40 percent.
Quote from: Cain on March 31, 2013, 02:16:31 PM
Well well welll.... (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/29/us-cyprus-parliament-idUSBRE92G03I20130329)
QuoteUnder conditions expected to be announced on Saturday, depositors in Bank of Cyprus will get shares in the bank worth 37.5 percent of their deposits over 100,000 euros, the source told Reuters, while the rest of their deposits may never be paid back.
The toughening of the terms will send a clear signal that the bailout means the end of Cyprus as a hub for offshore finance and could accelerate economic decline on the island and bring steeper job losses.
Officials had previously spoken of a loss to big depositors of 30 to 40 percent.
Wow.
You Brits didn't happen to keep any of those Lancaster bombers handy, did you? You might be needing them again.
We're due for a gigantic fucking war in Europe. I called this 5 years ago, IIRC.
Yeah, but we need French permission to use our armed forces. Since someone thought scrapping our only aircraft carrier would be a great idea.
Quote from: Cain on April 01, 2013, 08:34:13 PM
Yeah, but we need French permission to use our armed forces. Since someone thought scrapping our only aircraft carrier would be a great idea.
Carriers aren't really necessary in Europe, are they? There's not enough ocean.
And I recall the last time you guys allowed those baguette eaters to run your army around. Ended with Dunkirk, IIRC.
I'm going to make a prediction, right now.
Within 90 days, either German troops, or troops at the beck & call of Germany, will be in Cyprus, protecting the Germans' investment.
Not invading, so much, at least not in WWII style1. More as police with artillery.
1 Why annex it when you can just rape it?
Quote from: The Good Reverend Roger on April 01, 2013, 08:39:40 PM
Quote from: Cain on April 01, 2013, 08:34:13 PM
Yeah, but we need French permission to use our armed forces. Since someone thought scrapping our only aircraft carrier would be a great idea.
Carriers aren't really necessary in Europe, are they? There's not enough ocean.
And I recall the last time you guys allowed those baguette eaters to run your army around. Ended with Dunkirk, IIRC.
Depending how badly we have to dive into the mothballed reserves, we might be. I mean, there is a reason Prince William was able to do so well in that branch. By their standard's, he's practically a rocket scientist, and by his standards,
everyone else is a rocket scientist. I don't rate the RAF lasting five minutes against anyone more competent than a former goat-herder turned jihadi...which they haven't exactly done too well against, either. When shit gets real, the flyboys can't handle it. And anyone who can has been sent to the Falklands, in case the Argentinians get another case of Teh Stoopid.
Quote from: Cain on March 31, 2013, 02:16:31 PM
Well well welll.... (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/29/us-cyprus-parliament-idUSBRE92G03I20130329)
QuoteUnder conditions expected to be announced on Saturday, depositors in Bank of Cyprus will get shares in the bank worth 37.5 percent of their deposits over 100,000 euros, the source told Reuters, while the rest of their deposits may never be paid back.
The toughening of the terms will send a clear signal that the bailout means the end of Cyprus as a hub for offshore finance and could accelerate economic decline on the island and bring steeper job losses.
Officials had previously spoken of a loss to big depositors of 30 to 40 percent.
This only mentions the Bank of Cyprus. What about the other one? Laika?
I still don't get how this benefits anybody overall. Is Cyprus really that frightening to the rest of the EU/Germany that they need to scare every European into pulling their money out of their bank? Feels more like a comic book supervillain plot than economic policy.
(related)
http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=2936#comic
And the band marched on (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/11/cyprus-bailout-leaked-debt-analysis-bill):
QuoteCypriot politicians have reacted with fury to news that the crisis-hit country will be forced to find an extra €6bn (£5bn) to contribute to its own bailout, much of which is expected to come from savers at its struggling banks.
A leaked draft of the updated rescue plan, which emerged late on Wednesday night, revealed that the total bill for the bailout has risen to €23bn, from an original estimate of €17bn, less than a month after the deal was agreed – and the entire extra cost will be imposed on Nicosia.
Well, looks like I found the next tourist hotspot.
Quote from: Cain on April 12, 2013, 06:01:21 PM
And the band marched on (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/11/cyprus-bailout-leaked-debt-analysis-bill):
QuoteCypriot politicians have reacted with fury to news that the crisis-hit country will be forced to find an extra €6bn (£5bn) to contribute to its own bailout, much of which is expected to come from savers at its struggling banks.
A leaked draft of the updated rescue plan, which emerged late on Wednesday night, revealed that the total bill for the bailout has risen to €23bn, from an original estimate of €17bn, less than a month after the deal was agreed – and the entire extra cost will be imposed on Nicosia.
I guess they felt they left some money on the table.
That or their projections of the Cypriot economy were done while on crack (http://pawelmorski.wordpress.com/2013/04/11/cyprus-of-course-its-a-template-you-imbecile/):
Quote1) the economic forecasts are worse than literally laughable (table) . The drops in consumption and investment look dementedly optimistic given the events of the past month. Exports to drop a mere 5% with the destruction of the banking industry and the introduction of capital controls. The wealth effect wiping deposit worth 60% of GDP will apparently barely register on consumption – the Troika must think the deposits are all Russian. Compare with Iceland (50% drop in investment) or Latvia (40%), the former boosted by devaluation the latter by an intact financial system. Public consumption drops 9% – Iceland held the line here, and we have bitter experience from Greece on how big fiscal multipliers are. These projections cross the line from wild optimism into contemptuously half-hearted fable. This table is a bare-faced lie.
Ambrose Pritchard thinks this may be payback for old slights (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100023990/emu-plot-curdles-as-creditors-seize-cyprus-gold-reserves/):
QuoteIt is an interesting question why Cyprus has been treated more harshly than Greece, given that the eurozone itself set off the downward spiral by imposing de facto losses of 75pc on Greek sovereign debt held by Cypriot banks.
And, furthermore, given that these banks were pressured into buying many of those Greek bonds in the first place by the EU authorities, when it suited the Eurogroup.
You could say that this is condign punishment for the failure of Cyprus to deliver on its side of the bargain on the 2004 Annan Plan to reunite the island, divided by the Attila Line since the Turkish invasion in 1974.
Greek Cypriots gained admission to the EU on the basis of a gentleman's agreement, then resiled from the accord. President Tassos Papadopoulis later deployed the resources of the state to secure a "No" in the referendum on the Greek side of the island. No wonder the EU is disgusted.
But there again, Greece behaved just as badly. It threatened to block Polish accession to the EU unless a still-divided Cyprus was admitted, much to the fury of Berlin.
Economic predictions and policies made by those seemingly under the influence of illicit substances? Ah the British Heritage.
So I guess this means Cyprus is pretty much fucked now for time immemorial?
Quote from: LMNO on March 19, 2013, 05:23:46 PM
OH, GOODY.
I gotta get out of this racket.
NARRATOR: "But he didn't get out of that racket."
:shrugs: It pays well.