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Messages - McGrupp

Quote from: LMNO, PhD (life continues) on September 02, 2013, 04:09:52 PM
That's the Monty Hall problem. It's also covered in the sequences.

Yes. That's another good one. I like hearing the stories of when Marilyn vos Savant answered the Monty Hall problem in her column and had hundreds of PhD's in statistics and engineering write in to tell her she was wrong. Funny stuff and also another really good example of where intuition can fall short.
The way I understand it, this is the solution (though the second one still seems weird to me)

Suppose you know that a family with two children has at least one girl. What is the probability that this family has two girls?

The possiblities are:


So the probability is 1 in 3.

Say you know a family has two children, and further that at least one of them is a girl named Florida. What is the probability that they have two girls?

Here we have:

Boy-Girl (Florida)
Girl (Florida)-Boy
Girl (Not Florida)-Girl (Florida)
Girl (Florida)-Girl (Not Florida)
Girl (Florida)-Girl (Florida)

Here we get 3/5 which is a  60 percent chance. Although they seem to take out the Florida Florida scenario (which kinda feels like cheating) and get a 50 percent chance. This still feels odd.

Someone in my neighborhood has been knitting scarves for trees, telephone poles and parking meters. I keep seeing more appearing each day. This is awesome.

As a relative newcomer to I will say it can be a little intimidating to post. They always warn you that with discordians you won't be the weirdest person in the room but no one ever points out that you won't be the smartest person in the room. A lot of folks here are smart. Like, really smart, I still have to look up words all the time here and I consider myself pretty well read and learned. Also a lot of folks on here have been talking to each other for a long while. Their maps have been traced out, concepts have been agreed upon (or at least defined in terms of conversation) Catching up on all that takes some time and is a lot of work (good awesome work, but effort nonetheless) The old threads in these forums are a library unto themselves in many ways.

That said, after getting over the, whoa you guys are smart and I've never even heard of a reality tunnel before, I find this place to be a great place to discuss ideas. As long as you're honest, can back up an argument, and recognize when you're A)possibly wrong or B)too ignorant on the subject to continue the conversation, then it's a fairly open place. Sure, sometimes eldritch abominations will ambush you, hold you down and shit in your soul, but you'll have that here. Discordia wasn't meant to be safe. It's a place where everything gets poked with a stick.

Back on topic though, I really really dig the lesswrong movement. Especially the statistics stuff as it's easy to be swayed by statistics that sound good or plausible. An example from a book I just read was a court case where a man was on trial for murdering his spouse who he had previously abused. The defense provided a statistic that showed that of all cases of abused women in a marriage, only 2 percent were murdered by their spouse. 2 percent sounds kind of low but this is not actually relevant. The relevant stat isn't the percentage of battered women who went on to be murdered by their spouses but the percentage of battered women Who were also murdered who were killed by their spouses. This percentage is 90 percent and is the exact opposite of what the defense were trying to show.

The classic girl named Florida problem still makes my head hurt though:

QuoteThe Girl Named Florida problem is usually preceded by an easier problem that goes as follows:

Suppose you know that a family with two children has at least one girl. What is the probability that this family has two girls?

Now for the Girl Named Florida problem:

Suppose you know that a family with two children has at least one girl named Florida. What is the probability that this family has two girls?
Bring and Brag / The Table of Sorrows
August 30, 2013, 03:02:43 AM
My friend's job has a table in the break room that is supposed to be a place to put food that you aren't going to eat so others can eat it. Good in concept but it became a dumping ground for unwanted food and no one ever takes anything. He dubbed it the Table of Sorrows and has been documenting it on facebook. I set it to music.
I don't know why but this makes me giddy.  :lulz:
Damn. That is disturbing. I'm betting it won't be used to end world hunger.
It seems to me that if they are going to base everything on tests we should be able to test out of college. (I know I would finally get my BS if they let me do that)

If we're just going by testing it seems redundant to having 16 years of school, 12 of which are pretty much just 'jail for children because we don't know where else to put you'.
Quote from: LMNO, PhD (life continues) on August 27, 2013, 04:48:18 PM
Here's the really, really easy version.

Moe:  I believe, based upon the knowledge I currently have, that there's a 30% chance it will rain today.

Larry: Have you looked out the window?

Moe: No.

Larry: There are thunderclouds in the sky.

Moe: Updating my knowledge base, I now believe there is a 90% chance of rain.

There you go.  Based upon incoming knowledge, adjust your predictions.  The rest is math.

That is a really good explanation.

I love the lesswrong wiki. Conjunction fallacy made my head hurt until I realized I was reading their explanation backwards. Then it made a lot of sense.
That does seem positive. Good luck with the new place.
Two vast and trunkless legs of stone / Re: Spagbook
August 26, 2013, 05:42:58 PM
In the end I allowed him to go to church unsullied.
Two vast and trunkless legs of stone / Re: Spagbook
August 26, 2013, 05:21:18 PM
5k mud run with obstacle courses.

My father is an usher at his church. He stopped by on his way there to see us wearing his sunday best. I chased him around shouting 'Love me, father!' trying to give him a hug. This went on for 20 minutes.
Good tips. I especially love number 10.

I had an english teacher for creative writing in highschool who seemed to hate the word said. He would make us quip, and opine, retort, and a million other things that made it harder to read. Drove me nuts. Glad that said is getting some love.
Aneristic Illusions / Re: Is this a joke?
August 23, 2013, 06:01:38 PM
Not to mention that the feedtube stuff that goes in your nose has been around for decades. No one thinks that that isn't food.

It's the way the guy fucks with definitions of things that drives me nuts. Also stuff like this:

QuoteThe idea of "real food" is just snobbery.

If he made it out of rocks or dirt I would be impressed. Liquifying real food =/= synthetic