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Messages - Cain

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31
Aneristic Illusions / Re: General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread
« on: October 12, 2018, 04:06:45 pm »
Well, let's not count all our chickens just yet.

Any investigation is going to confirm that Jared and Bolton were talking with Saudi officials about Khasoggi, just days before he vanished.  And the President doesn't have to do anything, other than give a briefing explaining what the investigation found, and what he intends to do.  So of course, Trump will do nothing.

More interesting to me is that a significant number of Senators were willing to to this level right away.  I suspect recent Saudi behaviour has been raising more eyebrows in DC than is commonly acknowledged...maybe the Senate is finally getting sick of having to clean up whatever mess MBS has gotten himself into this week.  They're nowhere near jettisoning the alliance of course, not yet, but it's a step closer.

32
Aneristic Illusions / Re: General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread
« on: October 12, 2018, 03:12:49 pm »
It is.  Even better, the Senate has finally done a smart thing...in the US legal system, if the chairman and ranking member of "an appropriate congressional committee" requests the Magnitsky Act be used, it triggers a provision where the President has 120 days to respond with a classified or unclassified briefing that has to determine if a crime has been committed and whether the President intends to impose sanctions if so.

Bob Corker and Robert Menendez, the chairman and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, have requested the act be used.

33
Aneristic Illusions / Re: General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread
« on: October 12, 2018, 01:46:37 pm »
Magnitsky Act everyone on that list the Turkish authorities provided, and a few senior members of Saudi intelligence.  And have the former declared Specially Designated Global Terrorists too, just to underscore that this is an act of state terrorism (the effect on the finances are the same, the legal precedent could be very interesting).

34
Aneristic Illusions / Re: General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread
« on: October 12, 2018, 10:17:01 am »
Roger's point is that toppling a regime will always have unintended consequences.  Toppling Saudi Arabia in particular would have so many downstream ramifications it would make the Sicilian Expedition look like a reasonable military plan by comparison. 

I'm all for not doing business with them, throwing (Magnitsky Act) sanctions on them, kicking out their diplomats. 

But you topple the regime, the country will fracture.  Ikhwanist lunatics will seize power.  Iran will act to take advantage of the geopolitical weakness of the Sunni Arab states...if the Gulf states don't strike first.  Oil prices will go through the roof.  Innumerable markets face "adjustments" as Saudi money flows are cut off.   Iranian linked groups will try to seize the oilfields, which are in Shi'a majority areas.  Yemeni mercenaries current guarding the southern border will go rogue.  The Saudi National Guard will engage in brutal massacres to try and hold onto power.  The Red Sea will become a haven for piracy, threatening global supply chains.

These are just the things that are occuring to me before I finish my first coffee of the morning.

35
Aneristic Illusions / Re: General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread
« on: October 11, 2018, 08:05:34 pm »
This case had me interested even before I knew that Jared Kushner might be an accessory to state terrorism.  I actually taught a kid of one of the Khashoggi's for a while...nice lad.

It looks like a lot of civil society issues are cropping up for the Saudis right now.  Nothing earth-shattering, but having prominent businessmen and public intellectuals withdrawing from your state-run organisations isn't a good look for a "modernising" state.  Maybe this will get a few cheerleaders looking more critically at Saudi Arabia's quite frankly insane actions in the past few years.

But until a significant military supplier to Saudi Arabia cuts a trade deal, it's all so much hot air.  Trump has made it clear he gives precisely zero fucks, even though Jamal Khashoggi was a US resident.

36
Think for Yourself, Schmuck! / Re: Reality Safari: Gurdjieff
« on: October 11, 2018, 04:16:03 pm »
When you get some time, would you mind expanding on the self not being the ego?

I'm not Cram, but I think it's basically the Higher Guardian Angel concept from Crowley, which I believe you're probably familiar with.

The self is the "true self", the highest expression of your being and nature, whereas the ego is essentially selfish and base desires that have been rationalised.  Freud likened the ego to a man riding a powerful horse, guiding it in the directions he wishes to travel.  But the horse acts on the rider as much as the rider does on the horse...it sets a path that the rider then has to correct or work around.  The true self would be liberated from these constraints.

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38
Aneristic Illusions / Re: General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread
« on: October 11, 2018, 10:04:17 am »
Hey, so you know that Saudi dissident journalist who maybe, just maybe was lured to the Saudi Consulate in Turkey, was killed and had his body chopped up into little pieces to be flown out via diplomatic pouches?

Turns out that the Crown Prince and Jared were talking about him just the day before he vanished.

Quote
The White House said Wednesday that the powerful Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, had spoken about Khashoggi the previous day with White House national security adviser John Bolton and Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner.

But why would that be important? Maybe because Jared used to peruse the Daily Intelligence briefing and tell the Crown Prince which Saudis were plotting against him:

Quote
Until he was stripped of his top-secret security clearance in February, presidential adviser Jared Kushner was known around the White House as one of the most voracious readers of the President’s Daily Brief, a highly classified rundown of the latest intelligence intended only for the president and his closest advisers.

[...]

What exactly Kushner and the Saudi royal talked about in Riyadh may be known only to them, but after the meeting, Crown Prince Mohammed told confidants that Kushner had discussed the names of Saudis disloyal to the crown prince, according to three sources who have been in contact with members of the Saudi and Emirati royal families since the crackdown. Kushner, through his attorney’s spokesperson, denies having done so.

So naturally, the White House is now engaging in a coverup of its own potential involvement

Quote
The Post reported Tuesday night that prior to Khashoggi’s disappearance, U.S. intelligence officials had intercepted discussions among Saudi officials about capturing him. Citing unnamed sources, the Post said the plan was to lure Khashoggi back to Saudi Arabia and grab him there.

It’s also not clear whether U.S. officials warned Khashoggi of any danger, but under standard rules, they have a “duty to warn” if a threat is credible, said Ned Price, a former CIA officer and top Obama administration official. “What we do know is Khashoggi entered the Saudi consulate,” Price said. “And the fact that he did that leads one to believe that he was not fearful of an imminent Saudi threat.”

A State Department spokesman said Wednesday the U.S. had “no advance knowledge of Jamal Khashoggi's disappearance.”

39
Apple Talk / Re: ATTN: Chaotic Neutral Observer
« on: October 10, 2018, 09:26:06 pm »
I always thought Canada was just a part of America.

40
Apple Talk / Re: Ill-considered drama #1 of hopefully 1.
« on: October 10, 2018, 05:29:45 pm »
I don't know why people can't just leave your inbox alone.

41
The Northern oilfields dispute would also turn from a national one into an international one, as a third party nation tries to muscle in on resources claimed by an EU state.

42
May might not, but remember, 75-80% of Tories do see Scotland and NI leaving as being worth the price of Brexit.   And if Scotland leaves, it puts Labour in a very bad electoral position - I don't see them winning back those 41 seats any time soon, but without them and a reduced overall seating in Parliament, they'll be struggling to get a majority at all.

43
We could also use the rotting meat to pelt DUP members with

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45806063

Quote
The Democratic Unionist Party's 10 Westminster MPs are planning to vote down the Budget later this month if they are unhappy about the government's Brexit plans, the BBC understands.

Theresa May relies on DUP support in key votes because she does not have a majority in the House of Commons.

But the DUP could abandon this deal if Brexit means new barriers between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, Newsnight's Nick Watt said.

44
Aneristic Illusions / Re: UNLIMITED Immigration Nutbaggery Thread
« on: October 10, 2018, 10:54:58 am »
That was the one, thanks.

45
This is all perfectly normal:

Quote
Plans for the mass slaughter of sheep mid-transit are being discussed by Whitehall officials should ports be closed in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Sensitive discussions about what to do with livestock if there are days of delays or closures at ports such as Dover are under way in No 10 and government departments.

Mandarins are considering extreme contingency scenarios, which they know are likely to be dismissed as “project fear” by some MPs and members of the public. Nevertheless they also worry that failure to plan for certain outcomes, however unlikely, would lead to significant criticism if they were found to have underestimated the scale of the challenge.

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