Suppose for a moment that Mueller got the goods on the McConnell-Trump-Russia-GOP clusterfuck and they have become aware that Mueller has said goods.
Would this mail bomb attack simultaneously fulfill a number of strategic goals, regardless of whether the Dems take Congress?
- It tests the "false flag" (ff) narrative for further escalation.
- If the ff doesn't play that well, there is time to deploy even more desperate measures, that could make the ff idea more viable.
- If the ff does have legs, now or eventually, it could rally the GOP vote—who are primarily motivated by fear.
- It hedges against the ff narrative failing by encouraging already high levels of white nationalist violence to escalate.
- Even without the ff narrative growing legs, escalating violence is a pretext to sending police/military presence to the polls to suppress votes (intimidating people that have been historically abused by police by their mere presence, enacting "emergency legislation" to make voting more costly, time-consuming, etc).
- If after all that they still lose control of Congress, then in full-on cornered animal mode the mail bombs provide encouragement for the civil war so many on the right think they want.
- It tests the viability of using assassination to avoid consequences for what they know Mueller will present to the world.
I'm probably wrong about all this, but what do
you think?
I do think you're probably wrong (in the sense that I'm relatively sure in the absence of further evidence that this is a random lone nut) but it's worth considering the strategic implications from that direction, certainly.
One possible problem coming from the conservative narrative is that "these bombs didn't pose a threat anyway as all these people have extensive security and screening measures". This is coming from the kind of people I would most worry about making prominent calls for instituting a crackdown in the event of a terrorist attack (Frank Gaffney, by way of example). There's an element of truth to this that is hard to ignore, that while pipe bombs could have maimed or killed anyone unfortunate enough to handle them, they are fundamentally not as scary or provocative as, say, a suicide bombing, or multiple shooter event.
These bombs also mostly targeted former officials and fundraisers, and with the exception of Maxine Waters (who admittedly was targeted with two bombs), not currently sitting representatives. This also makes it harder to tie this into a "threat to the vote" narrative.
The false flag narrative is definitely doing the rounds, as well as false equivalences from more mainstream conservative figures (thanks, Meghan McCain). Epistemic closure means this theory will have serious legs, regardless of how many pieces of evidence against it exist, but it could certainly be used to "poll" how many mainstream Republican figures are willing to flirt with or seriously entertain such suggestions, in public and private.
I do think that with regard to Mueller, they'd be willing to trigger and possibly weather a constitutional crisis by simply dismissing him instead of turning to political violence and assassination. Now the Russians on the other hand...but killing Mueller would be as good as a signed confession, and I'm not sure the GRU tradecraft is good enough to do it without being caught down the line. America is also much harder to get in and out of than Europe, where Russia has a lot more infiltration options.
If we were to look at a government motive for this, my thinking would be more in line with the Italian "strategy of tension". Anonymous bombings and attacks from the far-right and far-left helped prop up the status quo and permit broad crackdowns without descending into outright authoritarian rule, and acted as cover for a number of criminal operations by both the intelligence services and organised crime groups.
The simplest explanation is that this is a single person or a very small group of like-minded people (I will eat my tentacles if it's more than 5) who ingested too much Alex Jones and Decided To Do Something About It. Every one of the targets is someone that the greater right wing propaganda machine has shit on aggressively in the last two years, if you were to ask a random asshole at a Trump rally who the worst enemies of America are right now they'd spout off a nearly identical list. The Git Er Done sticker is very in-joke, it doesn't come across as a wide audience call to action.
I think a more reasonable fear for down the line is that the rhetoric doesn't cool off and more right wing "lone wolves" get the message that this kind of behavior is tolerated or encouraged by their heroes at the top. So what then? I suspect the people at most risk would continue to be the folks who get accused of being Lizard People, not the people who are reasonable contenders for major office. They believe in their people too much to "get in the way" by blowing up a challenger. It's the people "manipulating the system" that "need to be dealt with."
The only benefit the GOP gets from this is the potential that Dem candidates get scared or distracted and make dumb mistakes. I don't think that's worth it unless they're already in the Civil War II Electric Boogaloo camp.
Dudes, it's ROSEANNE.
Chuck Schumer Relieved He's Never Taken Stance Meaningful Enough To Have Someone Mail Him Explosives
(https://politics.theonion.com/chuck-schumer-relieved-he-s-never-taken-stance-meaningf-1829972180)
China was behind it. Says right on the clocks "made in China"
I am stating that this is the Proudboys, and I am willing to bet a FIVE PAGE hate letter on this.
In all the talk about how the right will react to this, I totally forgot about the most plausible for some reason: It didn't actually happen.
'Fake News Fake Bombs' Sign Seen Outside Florida Debate Site (https://crooksandliars.com/2018/10/fake-news-fake-bombs-sign-seen-outside)
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 25, 2018, 07:10:40 PM
I am stating that this is the Proudboys, and I am willing to bet a FIVE PAGE hate letter on this.
To clarify: At least half of the plotters will have Proudboy tattoos or some other recognizable method of affiliation.
As much as I want to say you're right, LMNO, the right simply don't gain from that particular twist in the story as much as the false flag tall tale. As they've amply demonstrated, they very specifically speak to what they think is most good for their political side. So when faced with "Weakens Dems but doesn't make them look outright hideously evil" and "Paints the left as cartoon mustache twirling villains gone bad, somehow," they'll pick that second one every time.
The fact only a few of their creatures haven't gotten the memo and have been spouting other lines makes it obvious this is the case, in my opinion.
WRT speculation on where this goes: I can't help but think that yes, this /is/ a lone crazy radical, not an organized group action. The problem is that abortion clinic bombings and murders (LOL at this "hurrr Republicans don't do this" bullshit tubefeed they're trying to ram into the public sphere) similarly began with lone crazies created by extreme public discourse. And it escalated from there. I foresee the same thing here, unfortunately, especially since the right is essentially portraying the left as not caring about anyone's lives, not even their own side's. It's similar to the extreme rhetoric of the anti-abortion activists in the 80s, and the results are likely to be similar or worse, I would guess.
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 25, 2018, 07:16:32 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 25, 2018, 07:10:40 PM
I am stating that this is the Proudboys, and I am willing to bet a FIVE PAGE hate letter on this.
To clarify: At least half of the plotters will have Proudboy tattoos or some other recognizable method of affiliation.
I'm with the Dok on this one. Though it still could be Roseanne!
Quote from: nullified on October 25, 2018, 07:30:33 PM
As much as I want to say you're right, LMNO, the right simply don't gain from that particular twist in the story as much as the false flag tall tale. As they've amply demonstrated, they very specifically speak to what they think is most good for their political side. So when faced with "Weakens Dems but doesn't make them look outright hideously evil" and "Paints the left as cartoon mustache twirling villains gone bad, somehow," they'll pick that second one every time.
The fact only a few of their creatures haven't gotten the memo and have been spouting other lines makes it obvious this is the case, in my opinion.
WRT speculation on where this goes: I can't help but think that yes, this /is/ a lone crazy radical, not an organized group action. The problem is that abortion clinic bombings and murders (LOL at this "hurrr Republicans don't do this" bullshit tubefeed they're trying to ram into the public sphere) similarly began with lone crazies created by extreme public discourse. And it escalated from there. I foresee the same thing here, unfortunately, especially since the right is essentially portraying the left as not caring about anyone's lives, not even their own side's. It's similar to the extreme rhetoric of the anti-abortion activists in the 80s, and the results are likely to be similar or worse, I would guess.
I think False Flag and It Didn't Happen essentially amount to the same thing for the right. Either the Dems set the whole thing up, or they made it up. Alex Jones' accusations in the past were essentially mixtures of both concepts.
Hedging on the subject like he does is more about "the big win" and a fallback plan in case that fails. Making it up lets people say "at least there weren't any people actually at risk!", it's a weaker narrative, to be used only if "false flag" fails to stick because it just makes the left liars, not pure goddamn evil. If they could get away with blaming child sacrifices to satan on the left as a whole, they would. I'm not entirely remembering but I think that may have even been one narrative thread of the whole stupid fucking Pizzagate thing.
I don't see these things as the same because the end effects are different.
Trump just tweeted that this is somehow the understandable anger of someone who has had it with the fake news.
Not even kidding.
Genuinely not surprised. I fully expected him to say something that would legitimize political violence after his advisors stopped choking him until he said good things. It's the pattern he follows consistently.
Auntie Maxine says to eat a bag of gangrenous dicks:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/maxine-waters-says-she-wont-back-down-after-explosive-device-mailed-to-her/ar-BBOSVOP?ocid=spartanntp
Quote from: nullified on October 25, 2018, 09:34:33 PM
Genuinely not surprised. I fully expected him to say something that would legitimize political violence after his advisors stopped choking him until he said good things. It's the pattern he follows consistently.
Here we go:
Quote"A very big part of the Anger we see today in our society is caused by the purposely false and inaccurate reporting of the Mainstream Media that I refer to as Fake News," the president said in a morning tweet. "It has gotten so bad and hateful that it is beyond description. Mainstream Media must clean up its act, FAST!"
... says the guy who called the woman he paid to fuck him, "horse face".
I mean, in actual factual reality, how different is this from saying legitimate fascists who killed a woman have as many fine people as the people saying "go the fuck away and leave us in peace"?
Trump is equating murder (and now potential mass murder) with wanting to survive (and now telling the truth). It's a "proportionate response" so to speak, if you check the subtext. So yeah, not surprised.
Hm. Does anyone know how the extreme fringe is responding to this? Milo Yappyfuck said it's a shame the bombs didn't murder people, and Instagram had to be publicly shamed into removing it, but he's essentially a nobody to everybody by now. I'm more concerned by the groups that descended from the doomsday prepper shitbags, or the same sort of Nazi street fighting thug circles as the Proud Boys. I'm curious to see if the stupid fucks are talking publicly anywhere about whether they plan to double down on this, or etc.
https://apple.news/AK3m5xwqISj-Lf5TG6bAueg
This is all old news to us folks, but it's good that they're putting it out for the dumb fucks.
It's too bad they didn't mention regimes where this sort of thing has historically happened. Starting with the worst of the last monarchs and ending with things like the Awami League in Bangladesh, etc, with all the classic Eurofascist hit singles in the middle. That would have been a real education.
It's interesting that none of the bombs have gone off. 0/10 is a very poor yield rate. This either means that the bombs aren't intended to go off, or that the bomber is incompetent. I'm betting on incompetence.
I expect the bomber will be identified within a week; sending out multiple bombs at once is a rookie mistake, and it should make the job of finding him much easier.
Without any evidence, I think the "false flag" hypothesis can be dismissed as little more than a conspiracy theory. What's more likely, an attack from your enemies, or your allies? Occam's razor would seem to apply here.
The news stories I am seeing suggest that they were intended to be discovered, but that going off was a "useful" side effect if it happened. They were capable of it but not set up properly for it (specifically, one source says they didn't have enough batteries to set themselves off when the circuit connected, under most circumstances).
They were still dangerous and very well could have gone off despite the issues, but this was all more of a message than anything else, is what I'm getting out of it.
Quote from: chaotic neutral observer on October 26, 2018, 12:53:23 AM
It's interesting that none of the bombs have gone off. 0/10 is a very poor yield rate. This either means that the bombs aren't intended to go off, or that the bomber is incompetent. I'm betting on incompetence.
I expect the bomber will be identified within a week; sending out multiple bombs at once is a rookie mistake, and it should make the job of finding him much easier.
Without any evidence, I think the "false flag" hypothesis can be dismissed as little more than a conspiracy theory. What's more likely, an attack from your enemies, or your allies? Occam's razor would seem to apply here.
All that matters is that until the election, you can shut anyone's campaign down with a manila envelope.
Quote from: chaotic neutral observer on October 26, 2018, 12:53:23 AM
It's interesting that none of the bombs have gone off. 0/10 is a very poor yield rate. This either means that the bombs aren't intended to go off, or that the bomber is incompetent. I'm betting on incompetence.
I expect the bomber will be identified within a week; sending out multiple bombs at once is a rookie mistake, and it should make the job of finding him much easier.
The FBI has stated all the found items were viable.
But pipe bombs are the easiest bombs to mess up on. They're basically pressure based explosives, a hairline fracture in the casing can ruin the whole thing very easily. They can also have multiple points of failure with the electronic fuse.
It also helps that the packages they are in look suspicious as fuck, which meant police were called in early or they were screened before arrival.
Quote from: nullified on October 26, 2018, 01:10:24 AM
The news stories I am seeing suggest that they were intended to be discovered, but that going off was a "useful" side effect if it happened. They were capable of it but not set up properly for it (specifically, one source says they didn't have enough batteries to set themselves off when the circuit connected, under most circumstances).
They were still dangerous and very well could have gone off despite the issues, but this was all more of a message than anything else, is what I'm getting out of it.
I'm clearly not pessimistic enough. "It doesn't matter if the bomb goes off or not" isn't an option I'd considered.
Quote from: chaotic neutral observer on October 26, 2018, 03:48:53 AM
Quote from: nullified on October 26, 2018, 01:10:24 AM
The news stories I am seeing suggest that they were intended to be discovered, but that going off was a "useful" side effect if it happened. They were capable of it but not set up properly for it (specifically, one source says they didn't have enough batteries to set themselves off when the circuit connected, under most circumstances).
They were still dangerous and very well could have gone off despite the issues, but this was all more of a message than anything else, is what I'm getting out of it.
I'm clearly not pessimistic enough. "It doesn't matter if the bomb goes off or not" isn't an option I'd considered.
Maybe it matters that such devices were "hypothetically functional albeit rudimentary?"
In my opinion, if the devices contained any amount of explosive or incendiary matter, they are, by definition, "Bombs", even if the triggering mechanism was completely for shit.
It seems I was wrong about this. It now appears that the bombs failed to go off because the batteries died. That is just as easily attributed to lack of experience as to incompetence; the bomber may have tested the bomb design, but not considered the effect of a long timer delay on battery life. This also explains why all of the bombs failed to go off.
I'm going to revise my speculation to "the bombs were definitely intended to go off, and it's fortunate the bomber didn't use better batteries".
I just want to take a moment to imagine the hell world we'd be in if any of the people who received bombs were actually injured or killed.
Maybe we don't live in the worst possible timeline--but we've reached a simmer.
Quote from: Cramulus on October 26, 2018, 01:52:50 PM
I just want to take a moment to imagine the hell world we'd be in if any of the people who received bombs were actually injured or killed.
Maybe we don't live in the worst possible timeline--but we've reached a simmer.
An excellent point. And finally some proof that Murphy isn't actually running everything like the Wizard of Oz.
2 new bombs - targeting Cory Booker and James Clapper.
They've arrested a 56 year old Florida Man.
Check out his bitchin' ride:
https://boingboing.net/2018/10/26/florida-man-arrested-in-packag.html
Wasn't Florida one of the misspelled words on the packages?
I believe you are correct.
Oh, Florida... what will we do with you...
I thought the correct spelling was Floriduh.
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 26, 2018, 04:55:09 PM
They've arrested a 56 year old Florida Man.
Check out his bitchin' ride:
https://boingboing.net/2018/10/26/florida-man-arrested-in-packag.html
Hrrrm... How can I make make my Buffalo Bill rape van even more sinister?
Quote from: Hoopla! on October 26, 2018, 05:09:43 PM
Oh, Florida... what will we do with you...
Detach it from the mainland and let it float into the sea?
Whoever had their money on "memelord QAnon Native American for Trump" go on and collect your winnings.
Quote from: Q. G. Pennyworth on October 26, 2018, 06:17:43 PM
Whoever had their money on "memelord QAnon Native American for Trump" go on and collect your winnings.
Yeah the Native Americans for Trump was a new one for me.
Seriously, just look at that sweet ass van.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6321331/Suspected-mail-bomber-identified-Cesar-Altier-Sayoc.html
That guy either owned a very nice printer, or knew someone who did.
News sources are suggesting that the bomb maker might not be Native American, but Filipino. I don't know if I buy that.
I was thinking "one lone knucklehead isn't likely." But it seems unlikely someone like this had any pals involved. People with vans like that don't tend to have friends as crazy as they are.
I'm waiting for the next twist of the false flag narrative where the deep state made a crazy looking right wing van to get a Trump supporter in trouble. Or it was a long con and Sayoc was never right of Mao anyway.
I don't think his race even matters.
Quote from: nullified on October 26, 2018, 07:13:42 PM
News sources are suggesting that the bomb maker might not be Native American, but Filipino. I don't know if I buy that.
I was thinking "one lone knucklehead isn't likely." But it seems unlikely someone like this had any pals involved. People with vans like that don't tend to have friends as crazy as they are.
I'm waiting for the next twist of the false flag narrative where the deep state made a crazy looking right wing van to get a Trump supporter in trouble. Or it was a long con and Sayoc was never right of Mao anyway.
This was too big to have been kept secret by more than one person, in hindsight.
Quote from: Hoopla! on October 26, 2018, 07:24:59 PM
I don't think his race even matters.
I don't think it matters in the sense most people would. I think what it ends up being (widely considered to be by fringe loonies) will affect how the response to it goes. A Filipino man might reduce how much things escalate from here, because racist bastards will howl about immigrants being a threat to everyone.
A Native American man being responsible requires different messaging from the far right, and that messaging could lead to more (or worse) shit like this, or a sudden upswell in the number of white nationalists in the general population, depending which way it goes and how far it spreads.
That's why I'm paying attention to it.
ok good point.
The Seminole Tribe has said they have no records of him being a member, or ever working for the tribe. The delusional white man identifies as native american is going to end up being another Warren joke, unfortunately for us all.
Quote from: nullified on October 26, 2018, 07:13:42 PM
I'm waiting for the next twist of the false flag narrative where the deep state made a crazy looking right wing van to get a Trump supporter in trouble. Or it was a long con and Sayoc was never right of Mao anyway.
Here we go!
https://apple.news/Ae95ZZVOiTKuzSsv9F8toWw
A "patsy," my dear spags.
Cain and QGP, right on the money.
In this surreal landscape where Trump is still president and the unprecedented is the norm, I admire your ability to cut through the bullshit.
I tip my hat to both of you.
I was sick when I posted those ramblings, though I'm not terribly confident I'd have arrived at a much more accurate guess otherwise. :asshat:
So, who wants to play a round of "how many are still in transit?"
People named or displayed as "enemies" on nutter's van who have already gotten theirs:
Barack Obama
Michelle Obama
Bill Clinton
Hillary Clinton
George Soros
Tom Steyer
Eric Holder
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz*
People named or displayed as "enemies" who have not:
Michael Moore
Jill Stein
Van Jones
Nancy Pelosi
Rachel Maddow
Anderson Cooper
Al Sharpton
George Stephanopoulos
Harry Reid
Chuck Todd
My guess is no more than two of the other folks will be targeted: Pelosi and Todd. And I would be surprised a little if either received one.
Some of the people who only received one might receive another, though, that was something he kept doing. I think that's more likely.
I would not be surprised if one shows up for MSNBC, whether it's Todd or Maddow or one of the regular commentators specifically.
I can't see Maddow being a specified target for some reason. Something about her compared with the other targets thus far doesn't smell right. I can see a to whom it may concern at MSNBC, or one aimed directly at Todd. But Maddow just does not quite fit the bill, and I can't figure out why I have that feeling.
I still see Sharpton hate memes from time to time, and what the hell has he even done lately?
I'll bet my Palm Pilot (slightly used) that he gets one.
I would take that bet but I have nothing I could offer you if I lost. Palm Pilots are nifty though, and I want it, and I think you would lose. (The hate for him is more perfunctory right now, like the hate for Michael Moore. He's definitely not actively up in the face of the average dipshit, they just share hatememes because that's who they are.)
I think I figured out the bothersome key link of it all anyway: these went to people who are widely considered "Heads" of the conspiracy to defraud the Orange Bastard. That doesn't fit Sharpton, not quite. It more fits Todd and Pelosi. Maddow and Sharpton are more on the order of "pawns" in these guys views, gleefully following the orders of their evil globalist overlords. I think Moore might also be considered a leader in the conspiracy, but I'm not quite sure, it's been a bit.
Who wants to read the alleged bomber's twitter archive? Of course you do
https://www.scribd.com/document/391692784/full-tweet-archive-of-the-MAGA-Bomber
Quote
CESAR SAYOC, THE Donald Trump-loving Floridian who was taken into custody in relation to pipe bombs mailed to prominent Democrats, was foreclosed on in 2009 by a bank whose principal owner and chair is now Trump's treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin.
The documents used to enact the foreclosure were signed by a prominent robo-signer and seemingly backdated. Nonetheless, the evidence was good enough for the famously inattentive Florida foreclosure courts to wave the case through. Years later, Sayoc became a supporter of Trump, who came into office and appointed a treasury secretary who ran the bank that snatched Sayoc's house.
And
Soros was an investor in Mnuchin's bank.
https://theintercept.com/2018/10/26/cesar-sayoc-foreclosure-steven-mnuchin/?fbclid=IwAR1zLmRZEOuAdqKw70FhiFshxgzY5whX1s0PzSFkfBhihm_aHrXSOWdQW0g
(https://i.imgur.com/xxZb7wk.png)
Quote from: Cain on October 27, 2018, 11:29:55 AM
Who wants to read the alleged bomber's twitter archive? Of course you do
https://www.scribd.com/document/391692784/full-tweet-archive-of-the-MAGA-Bomber
I'm back to June in his timeline and his feed is nothing but a litany of death threats towards public figures and gay people, interspersed with some MAGA-tier cheerleading and conspiracy theorising. Notably he sent death threats to Biden and Holder, two people he later sent bombs to.
Quote from: Cain on October 27, 2018, 11:29:55 AM
Who wants to read the alleged bomber's twitter archive? Of course you do
https://www.scribd.com/document/391692784/full-tweet-archive-of-the-MAGA-Bomber
That looks legit, but because I know I'll be asked—how do we know those are his accounts?
I'm not sure where the original information came from regarding his accounts, but that and another account have been named as his by several credible news sites. That link itself came from Slate, if that helps.
What's this I hear about unpostmarked stamps???
Quote from: rong on October 27, 2018, 07:59:17 PM
What's this I hear about unpostmarked stamps???
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Mail-Bomb-Stamps-Cancelled-Explainer-498665661.html
QuoteFour separate officials briefed on, or involved with, the investigation have told NBC this week that some packages were not postmarked because the soft packaging could not go through the postal machines.
In fact, the U.S. Postal Service's own website says postmarks aren't required in all cases.
"Postmarks are not required for mailings bearing a permit, meter, or precanceled stamp for postage, nor to pieces with an indicia applied by various postage evidencing systems," the USPS says on this page.