Quote from: Q. G. Pennyworth on May 18, 2023, 03:24:28 PM
I'm working on crawling out from under a rock. 2023 seems like an auspicious year for that. Or at least an interesting one.
Oh hi!
Lot of it about. Things are getting Weird. Hope you're well.
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Show posts MenuQuote from: Q. G. Pennyworth on May 18, 2023, 03:24:28 PM
I'm working on crawling out from under a rock. 2023 seems like an auspicious year for that. Or at least an interesting one.
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Quote from: Fallenkezef on May 06, 2023, 09:42:32 AMQuote from: Cain on May 05, 2023, 09:44:32 PMQuote from: Scribbly on May 05, 2023, 07:45:15 PM
I don't really care about this but I feel like I ought to throw it out there.
Local council elections in the UK are in and the Tories have taken a pasting.
One thing that I do think is interesting at a first glance here is that Labour is not nearly so clearly the victor as they are crowing about. Yes, they got the largest number of seats... but it's not that far ahead of the Lib Dems and the Greens more than doubled their holding.
My suspicion is that the Lib Dems are benefiting from the hard core of Tory voters who want to express their dissatisfaction but will never vote Labour, and the Greens are benefiting from the hard core of Left voters who will never vote Starmer.
It's always difficult to predict what will happen at the next GE from local council results but I think the Lib Dem gains give particular reason for pause here. Most people don't take local elections seriously because the stakes are perceived as lower (which is ironic as they often have a bigger impact on their lives in material terms than their MP). Lib Dems have a reputation for being good in local government (which... eh) and then rarely being able to translate that into strong parliamentary showings because people just don't take them seriously as a party of potential government (which is good; they don't deserve that).
When people are faced with the choice that 'matters' I think there's every chance they swing back to the Tories. Memories are short and Sunak still has time to craft his pitch. I still ultimately think that a Labour government (possibly a Labour led coalition) is the most likely outcome, but particularly if Starmer continues to fail to inspire and the pitch from both parties is "Things are shit, they're going to get more shit, and that's good actually" people may well decide to just stick with the devil they know.
It doesn't look entirely great for Labour...strong suggestions of a coalition government based on the showing and numbers so far. Completely squandered that 50 point lead they had seven months back, as far as I can tell they spent that entire time telling the left of the party they are swine,to the unions that they won't back them, that they won't help students and they don't especially care about rampant TERFism or refugees and promising YET MORE CRACKDOWNS in order to court the vote of gammons who will always vote for the Tories over them anyway.
So yeah. Demoralising your own base is...an interesting political approach.
But yeah, I agree the Lib Dem vote is likely disaffected Tories who want to punish them where it'll actually hurt.
The thing is, England doesn't really matter too much.
When the general election kicks off it's all about Scotland. It's a foregone conclusion that Labour will win, which is good for the country as Starmer is more Blairite centrist. It's how much they win.
Back in the day, Labour relied heavily on the Scottish vote. The SNP turning Scotland into a one party state hurt them badly. However now there is a chance that the whole "vote for independence and ignore how shit we are at running a nation" bullshit has been exposed and the Scottish folks will go back to voting Labour in order to fuck the tories.
Quote from: Cain on May 05, 2023, 09:44:32 PMQuote from: Scribbly on May 05, 2023, 07:45:15 PM
I don't really care about this but I feel like I ought to throw it out there.
Local council elections in the UK are in and the Tories have taken a pasting.
One thing that I do think is interesting at a first glance here is that Labour is not nearly so clearly the victor as they are crowing about. Yes, they got the largest number of seats... but it's not that far ahead of the Lib Dems and the Greens more than doubled their holding.
My suspicion is that the Lib Dems are benefiting from the hard core of Tory voters who want to express their dissatisfaction but will never vote Labour, and the Greens are benefiting from the hard core of Left voters who will never vote Starmer.
It's always difficult to predict what will happen at the next GE from local council results but I think the Lib Dem gains give particular reason for pause here. Most people don't take local elections seriously because the stakes are perceived as lower (which is ironic as they often have a bigger impact on their lives in material terms than their MP). Lib Dems have a reputation for being good in local government (which... eh) and then rarely being able to translate that into strong parliamentary showings because people just don't take them seriously as a party of potential government (which is good; they don't deserve that).
When people are faced with the choice that 'matters' I think there's every chance they swing back to the Tories. Memories are short and Sunak still has time to craft his pitch. I still ultimately think that a Labour government (possibly a Labour led coalition) is the most likely outcome, but particularly if Starmer continues to fail to inspire and the pitch from both parties is "Things are shit, they're going to get more shit, and that's good actually" people may well decide to just stick with the devil they know.
It doesn't look entirely great for Labour...strong suggestions of a coalition government based on the showing and numbers so far. Completely squandered that 50 point lead they had seven months back, as far as I can tell they spent that entire time telling the left of the party they are swine,to the unions that they won't back them, that they won't help students and they don't especially care about rampant TERFism or refugees and promising YET MORE CRACKDOWNS in order to court the vote of gammons who will always vote for the Tories over them anyway.
So yeah. Demoralising your own base is...an interesting political approach.
But yeah, I agree the Lib Dem vote is likely disaffected Tories who want to punish them where it'll actually hurt.
Quote from: Faust on May 04, 2023, 09:39:02 AM
Please dont let this stop the shitting on this moron but:
I wont hear ill of Brendan O'Carroll, I don't like Mrs browns boys but that character cannot be reduced to the cliched joke of a man in a dress.
Agnes brown is an incredibly accurate portrayal of an Irish Mammy, and both his portrayal and Angelica Houstons (yes its THAT agnes brown) elicit aspects of the character in interesting ways
Quote from: SartreNever believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.
Quote from: Fallenkezef on May 04, 2023, 09:12:08 AMQuote from: Scribbly on May 04, 2023, 07:14:42 AM
THAT'S what you're referencing?
So you're saying you're not being a misogynist because you're using the dismissive catchphrase of a man in a dress when addressing a trans woman?
Great job. Top work. No notes.
Lets drill down into this hypocrisy shall we? Dismissing a "man in a dress"? That's a REALLY insulting way to describe drag don't you think?
Considering it was a "man in a dress" that started the stonewall riots. Considering the fact that Florida recently passed the death penalty for child abuse convictions and will now try to use that legislation to threaten and harass homosexual (and straight) people who dress in drag and conduct story time readings. But that's ok apparently as a "man in a dress" is somehow misogynistic.
Lets look at the "man in a dress" who's catchphrase I love so much shall we? Brendan O'Carroll is a massive supporter of the LGBT+ community. He's used the show to support gay rights and the to campaign for the legalisation of gay marriage in Ireland.
Great Job. Top Work. No Notes.