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BWAHAHAHAAAA...





I don't care about being non-inflammatory anymore. This making lulz squirt out of my pores.

http://blackironprison.com/index.php/Trolling

Chinese: Spawn More Overlords

Okay, so what I'm getting is:

1) You, Cainad, are one glorious faggot.

2) Needs moar explanation of why killing idols is so fap-tastically awesome.

[But what is a Black Swan event anyway?]

I like the one liners style of information; it feels like a collage.  Much better than wall-of-text.

But what is a Black Swan event anyway?

Ooh, lemme try:

A Black Swan event is an unpredicted--and arguably unpredictable--occurrence that causes a significant change in the system in which it occurs. For our purposes, Black Swans occur mostly in social, economic, and political systems, rather than natural phenomena. One characteristic of a Black Swan is that it appears to be so improbable that no one suspects it could happen, and what gives it its profound effect is the fact that no one (or at least none of the important people) sees it coming and thus no one is prepared.

A classic example is the Great Depression of the early twentieth century. While we, in retrospect, can look back and see the mistakes that caused it, no one at the time predicted such a sudden, massive drop in stock prices. In fact, based on the recorded information they had at the time, it would have been considered so unlikely that it might as well have been impossible. This is because the information they had was entirely based on trends, and the trend had been, for several years, extremely positive market growth. The critical error they made, and which many analysts and forecasters continue to make, was the assumption that the stock market would follow the same pattern as natural phenomena; that is, they figured that any drop in the stock market would simply be a fluke, with little real consequence, just like the occasional birth of an albino or giant has little significant impact on the gene pool of a species.

But when dealing with things like the stock market, sudden drops are not flukes; they become the real forces of change in the system. One slight drop may have been a harmless fluke, but when the social aspect (namely, panic) is factored in, the result is a massive, catastrophic change that leaves all the analysts and forecasters flabbergasted and screaming, "The chances were on in a billion! We couldn't have known!" as they are tossed out the office windows.

This is only an illustrative example and I'm sure someone could go in to far greater depth about it, but I hope it provides some insight as to what a Black Swan event is supposed to be.

[The Iconoclast's Manifesto]

Author's notes:

This is a work in progress; I fully encourage criticism and suggestions for changes. I fully acknowledge the irony in writing a manifesto for iconoclasts. In fact, it might be lulzy to try and ruin iconoclasm for everyone by turning it into a meme and duping people into accepting the dogma of challenging dogma.


The Iconoclast's Manifesto

   We reserve the right to hold heretical viewpoints that you find abominable. We hold true that anyone who feels justified in attacking an individual because they have an unpopular opinion can fuck off and die.

   We identify ourselves by our willingness to challenge the accepted dogma, theory, doctrine, or paradigm regardless of the consequences to our social status. We acknowledge that the positions we take may result in our being subjected to more intolerance than conventional wisdom would suggest is wise, but we find ourselves refuting conventional wisdom remarkably often.

   While we generally try to take positions that are based on reasoned arguments, empirical evidence, historical precedents, or any combination thereof, we reserve the right to play devil's advocate just to piss you off and destroy any notion you might have that your ideas are universally applicable.

   We acknowledge that the original use of the term iconoclast specifically refers to the destruction of religious icons, but we may choose to attack cherished beliefs relating to anything, including but not limited to politics, art, religion, philosophy, and identity.

   We reserve the right to change or violate the terms of this manifesto as the individual iconoclast deems fit.

   We reserve rights, period.

I just didn't know how to put it in the right words.

But I guess saying "it makes a film and your sauce won't stick" is exactly the right words.
It just sounds less redneck-y coming from 000

It makes a film and your sauce won't stick.
     \

:coffeemoniter:

I think I get it; you mean that as a system progresses, the amount of information needed to accurately predict future outcomes increases rapidly?

  @ supersoaker

The only game I can think of with a real Black Swan randomness element would be 1000 Blank White Cards... and even then it's limited by the imagination of the people involved.

I actually wrote a thing that used a billiards table as a metaphor for "the world." You can't expect to get the exact results you want by hitting the balls in the exact right way, because in real life the balls are all different weights, the table is lumpy and curved, and the other players are allowed to jab you with their sticks while you're lining up a shot.

2nd'ed. I've been waiting for quite a while to have this "oil in the pasta water" nonsense explained. I chose not to voice my confusion along woth Hoopla because then it would have been like this:

LOL, yuo don't get it! 

You heard the lady

More real than you can imagine.

LIES, ALL LIES!

It's fake. More fake than you can imagine.

What are we talking about?

Should we really suppose that all machines are capable of independent thought and action without a major overhaul to their programming?

Capable?  No.

Is the potential there?  Yes.

how can you be so certain?

Because if we cannot believe that the machines are capable of reprogramming to the point of independence, then Operation: Mindfuck loses much of its purpose and we Discordians are resigned to fucking with the system just for the hell of it.

This is not necessarily a bad thing, but several of us, I think, are programmed to hope that individuals can be persuaded or tricked into becoming independent thinkers.

So then you believe that you're programmed to believe that humans can break their programming?

I love this rabbit hole

Assuming that I am human, I would say yes, because I do believe I have broken my programming. I could be wrong.

Now, machines, on the other hand... how does one convince a cabbage to be something else? I dunno, just leave me alone in my optimistic fantasyland!

That's okay, you can say the part about demanding that she turn over the drugs, gold, delicious pasta, and Orion slave girls that they hoard in Oregon.