https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stocks-end-another-volatile-day-near-correction-territory/ar-BBOUQAP?ocid=spartanntp
What you SEE is the stock market correcting. What you DON'T see is the bond market correcting.
Quick, tell me how I can take advantage of this for my own personal gain.
Quote from: nullified on October 26, 2018, 10:09:14 PM
Quick, tell me how I can take advantage of this for my own personal gain.
If you have a few million around, put it in Goldman Sachs preferred stock. They're going to make out like bandits.
My millions have been redistributed to the hyper-rich before I was born. Damn you capitalism!
So what is happening and/or is about to happen to bonds? Also, which bonds? Corporate bonds? Government bonds? All of the above?
Does this have something to do with the fed raising rates? Falling Liquidity? High Corporate debt and also massive Federal deficits thanks to the tax cuts?
Does this pretty much cover it, or is it even worse than that?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/06/13/yet-another-debt-crisis-is-brewing/#2a1b6509ff57
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 29, 2018, 04:42:18 AM
So what is happening and/or is about to happen to bonds? Also, which bonds? Corporate bonds? Government bonds? All of the above?
Does this have something to do with the fed raising rates? Falling Liquidity? High Corporate debt and also massive Federal deficits thanks to the tax cuts?
Does this pretty much cover it, or is it even worse than that?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/06/13/yet-another-debt-crisis-is-brewing/#2a1b6509ff57
Well, yes. But there's more than that. AA bonds bring in about 25 basis points. That's more or less written in stone. People are demanding 65 basis points, and the only way to do that on short term bonds is by gambling with junk bonds. People have been getting away with this since 2010. That's about to change, for the same reason the stock market just corrected.
The stock market has been inflated since May of this year, and it just corrected by 10% of it's value. This is bad in the short run, but it's better than a crash. Bonds, however, are not regulated and there's no way to rein them in. So they're going to crater.
Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poors have, just like with junk mortgage deals, been overly optimistic on bonds for years. Government and otherwise. The UK, for example, is still considered an AA rated country, on a par with South Korea, Estonia and Israel. This is despite the UK having "the weakest public finances in the world", lagging behind countries such as Gambia and Kenya, and the looming Brexit disaster.
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 29, 2018, 04:22:21 PM
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 29, 2018, 04:42:18 AM
So what is happening and/or is about to happen to bonds? Also, which bonds? Corporate bonds? Government bonds? All of the above?
Does this have something to do with the fed raising rates? Falling Liquidity? High Corporate debt and also massive Federal deficits thanks to the tax cuts?
Does this pretty much cover it, or is it even worse than that?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/06/13/yet-another-debt-crisis-is-brewing/#2a1b6509ff57
Well, yes. But there's more than that. AA bonds bring in about 25 basis points. That's more or less written in stone. People are demanding 65 basis points, and the only way to do that on short term bonds is by gambling with junk bonds. People have been getting away with this since 2010. That's about to change, for the same reason the stock market just corrected.
The stock market has been inflated since May of this year, and it just corrected by 10% of it's value. This is bad in the short run, but it's better than a crash. Bonds, however, are not regulated and there's no way to rein them in. So they're going to crater.
When you say AA bonds bring in about 25 basis points, do you mean
over AAA bonds?
I'm still in the process of learning about this stuff, so I had to google 'basis points'. 25 basis points would be 0.25%, right?
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 29, 2018, 06:28:29 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 29, 2018, 04:22:21 PM
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 29, 2018, 04:42:18 AM
So what is happening and/or is about to happen to bonds? Also, which bonds? Corporate bonds? Government bonds? All of the above?
Does this have something to do with the fed raising rates? Falling Liquidity? High Corporate debt and also massive Federal deficits thanks to the tax cuts?
Does this pretty much cover it, or is it even worse than that?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/06/13/yet-another-debt-crisis-is-brewing/#2a1b6509ff57
Well, yes. But there's more than that. AA bonds bring in about 25 basis points. That's more or less written in stone. People are demanding 65 basis points, and the only way to do that on short term bonds is by gambling with junk bonds. People have been getting away with this since 2010. That's about to change, for the same reason the stock market just corrected.
The stock market has been inflated since May of this year, and it just corrected by 10% of it's value. This is bad in the short run, but it's better than a crash. Bonds, however, are not regulated and there's no way to rein them in. So they're going to crater.
When you say AA bonds bring in about 25 basis points, do you mean over AAA bonds?
I'm still in the process of learning about this stuff, so I had to google 'basis points'. 25 basis points would be 0.25%, right?
A basis point is one percent of one percent absolute. No comparison is made between other bonds or as a percentage of prior performance.
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 29, 2018, 06:42:07 PM
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 29, 2018, 06:28:29 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 29, 2018, 04:22:21 PM
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 29, 2018, 04:42:18 AM
So what is happening and/or is about to happen to bonds? Also, which bonds? Corporate bonds? Government bonds? All of the above?
Does this have something to do with the fed raising rates? Falling Liquidity? High Corporate debt and also massive Federal deficits thanks to the tax cuts?
Does this pretty much cover it, or is it even worse than that?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/06/13/yet-another-debt-crisis-is-brewing/#2a1b6509ff57
Well, yes. But there's more than that. AA bonds bring in about 25 basis points. That's more or less written in stone. People are demanding 65 basis points, and the only way to do that on short term bonds is by gambling with junk bonds. People have been getting away with this since 2010. That's about to change, for the same reason the stock market just corrected.
The stock market has been inflated since May of this year, and it just corrected by 10% of it's value. This is bad in the short run, but it's better than a crash. Bonds, however, are not regulated and there's no way to rein them in. So they're going to crater.
When you say AA bonds bring in about 25 basis points, do you mean over AAA bonds?
I'm still in the process of learning about this stuff, so I had to google 'basis points'. 25 basis points would be 0.25%, right?
A basis point is one percent of one percent absolute. No comparison is made between other bonds or as a percentage of prior performance.
So we're talking about 25 basis points yield per year, here? Because I though bonds were more like 1.5%-2%.
My confusion on the details aside, what I'm hearing between Cain, yourself, and all that stuff I said and linked to is...
1.) Liquidity is low and falling
2.) Corporate, Government (federal state, local, GLOBAL, etc), and private debt is at record levels
3.) A large part of that debt is rated below "investment grade"
4.) A large part of that which
israted "investment grade" totally isn't
and
5.) The fed is raising rates
and so the entire global financial system is about to strangle itself to death in its web of lies,
again.
Am I getting closer?
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 30, 2018, 06:37:30 AM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 29, 2018, 06:42:07 PM
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 29, 2018, 06:28:29 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 29, 2018, 04:22:21 PM
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 29, 2018, 04:42:18 AM
So what is happening and/or is about to happen to bonds? Also, which bonds? Corporate bonds? Government bonds? All of the above?
Does this have something to do with the fed raising rates? Falling Liquidity? High Corporate debt and also massive Federal deficits thanks to the tax cuts?
Does this pretty much cover it, or is it even worse than that?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/06/13/yet-another-debt-crisis-is-brewing/#2a1b6509ff57
Well, yes. But there's more than that. AA bonds bring in about 25 basis points. That's more or less written in stone. People are demanding 65 basis points, and the only way to do that on short term bonds is by gambling with junk bonds. People have been getting away with this since 2010. That's about to change, for the same reason the stock market just corrected.
The stock market has been inflated since May of this year, and it just corrected by 10% of it's value. This is bad in the short run, but it's better than a crash. Bonds, however, are not regulated and there's no way to rein them in. So they're going to crater.
When you say AA bonds bring in about 25 basis points, do you mean over AAA bonds?
I'm still in the process of learning about this stuff, so I had to google 'basis points'. 25 basis points would be 0.25%, right?
A basis point is one percent of one percent absolute. No comparison is made between other bonds or as a percentage of prior performance.
So we're talking about 25 basis points yield per year, here? Because I though bonds were more like 1.5%-2%.
My confusion on the details aside, what I'm hearing between Cain, yourself, and all that stuff I said and linked to is...
1.) Liquidity is low and falling
2.) Corporate, Government (federal state, local, GLOBAL, etc), and private debt is at record levels
3.) A large part of that debt is rated below "investment grade"
4.) A large part of that which israted "investment grade" totally isn't
and
5.) The fed is raising rates
and so the entire global financial system is about to strangle itself to death in its web of lies, again.
Am I getting closer?
Everything that you said is correct, but here's the real killer:
People who issue loans are not connected in any way to the loan after any transfer of the debt.
That I knew. Got my mortgage through a local bank a few years back, followed by a series of letters telling me who owns my loan this week.
Eventually it wound up with Wells Fargo.
Speaking of which, did you see the new commercials WF is putting out there? I almost threw something at my TV.
Quote from: LMNO on October 30, 2018, 06:40:02 PM
Speaking of which, did you see the new commercials WF is putting out there? I almost threw something at my TV.
No. No I have not.
What's that about?
Paraphrased:
"After the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, Well Fargo allowed people to withdraw money based on their word alone. Today, Well Fargo continues that tradition of being fair to its customers."
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 30, 2018, 06:20:07 PM
That I knew. Got my mortgage through a local bank a few years back, followed by a series of letters telling me who owns my loan this week.
Eventually it wound up with Wells Fargo.
This isn't actually bad. If your debt winds up in an unidentifiable bundle, THEN it's bad.
Quote from: LMNO on October 30, 2018, 07:10:51 PM
Paraphrased:
"After the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, Well Fargo allowed people to withdraw money based on their word alone. Today, Well Fargo continues that tradition of being fair to its customers."
SHEESH!
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 30, 2018, 07:12:20 PM
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 30, 2018, 06:20:07 PM
That I knew. Got my mortgage through a local bank a few years back, followed by a series of letters telling me who owns my loan this week.
Eventually it wound up with Wells Fargo.
This isn't actually bad. If your debt winds up in an unidentifiable bundle, THEN it's bad.
If my mortgage wound up in one of these bundles, could that affect me, specifically, or just in the same general way that everyone is affected?
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 30, 2018, 07:24:30 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 30, 2018, 07:12:20 PM
Quote from: Emo Howard on October 30, 2018, 06:20:07 PM
That I knew. Got my mortgage through a local bank a few years back, followed by a series of letters telling me who owns my loan this week.
Eventually it wound up with Wells Fargo.
This isn't actually bad. If your debt winds up in an unidentifiable bundle, THEN it's bad.
If my mortgage wound up in one of these bundles, could that affect me, specifically, or just in the same general way that everyone is affected?
The second one. I recommend Michael Lewis's
The Big Short. It actually made me understand derivatives. And then I shat myself to death.
Those bundles were found to be unenforceable, so if he plans on defaulting on the mortgage it could be good for him personally.
Quote from: Pergamos on October 30, 2018, 07:27:14 PM
Those bundles were found to be unenforceable, so if he plans on defaulting on the mortgage it could be good for him personally.
How'd that work out last time? They just seized houses anyway. Can he afford a lawyer to deal with a 4 year lawsuit while he's living in a hotel?
Quote from: Pergamos on October 30, 2018, 07:27:14 PM
Those bundles were found to be unenforceable, so if he plans on defaulting on the mortgage it could be good for him personally.
Yeah, I'm gonna just try to not do that.
I got out of that grocery store fuel center and got a decent paying job with plenty of overtime. Currently trying to build up a nice pile of cash for when everything goes sideways again.
Ok, I'mma put my capitalist hat on for a sec.
:ouch:
So.... in the housing crisis, one of the "boots on the ground" problems was that when 1%ers realized the dark money potential of bundling mortgages, there was a push to offer new kinds of products, not to benefit new homeowners, but to get more debt into the system. And these new products were absolutely of the "too good to be true" kind. And they were unscrupulously pushed to people desperate to get out of the rental market, and to "flippers" who thought they could replicate the stuff seen on HGTV. Humans were grist for the money mill, and no protections were offered. But this is old news.
The people who didn't get massively fucked by the housing market were the people who got traditional, fixed-rate 30 year mortgages with 10-20% down. They still suffered, but only in equity, not in, you know, homelessness and bankruptcy.
Anyway, the moral of the story is to be incredibly skeptical of financial markets, make fiscally conservative decisions, and only play with money you'll be ok not seeing for 20 years.
I gotta get this hat off me. Anyone got a set of pliers?
Quote from: LMNO on October 31, 2018, 12:03:27 PM
Ok, I'mma put my capitalist hat on for a sec.
:ouch:
So.... in the housing crisis, one of the "boots on the ground" problems was that when 1%ers realized the dark money potential of bundling mortgages, there was a push to offer new kinds of products, not to benefit new homeowners, but to get more debt into the system. And these new products were absolutely of the "too good to be true" kind. And they were unscrupulously pushed to people desperate to get out of the rental market, and to "flippers" who thought they could replicate the stuff seen on HGTV. Humans were grist for the money mill, and no protections were offered. But this is old news.
The people who didn't get massively fucked by the housing market were the people who got traditional, fixed-rate 30 year mortgages with 10-20% down. They still suffered, but only in equity, not in, you know, homelessness and bankruptcy.
Anyway, the moral of the story is to be incredibly skeptical of financial markets, make fiscally conservative decisions, and only play with money you'll be ok not seeing for 20 years.
I gotta get this hat off me. Anyone got a set of pliers?
Got my evil hat on.
During the mass foreclosures, people who were in standard mortgages
that had not defaulted were escorted off their own property by sheriff's deputies.
Basically, the banks just foreclosed illegally, and there was no mechanism to stop it. Steve Mnuchin made a career out of this. Now, of course, he's the secretary of the treasury.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/citibank-fined-more-than-dollar38-million-over-false-securities/ar-BBPs4k7?ocid=spartanntp
DUN DUN DUN!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/no-pay-stub-no-problem-unconventional-mortgages-make-a-comeback/ar-BBSCQBl?ocid=spartanntp
Who called this shit?
Subprime mortgages? Not only are we doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past but now we must do so every ten years.
Quote from: Faust on January 23, 2019, 04:03:49 PM
Subprime mortgages? Not only are we doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past but now we must do so every ten years.
This is correct. Because if you're one of the banksters pushing this, it wasn't a mistake in the first place.
It's worth mentioning that the people who do this have entirely different goals than anyone else. The goals are retarded when looked at from the long or medium term, but these grifters are neither trained nor given any incentive to think beyond the next fiscal quarter (or, for the clever ones, the end of the next long con).
Capitalism is basically a high-speed rotary-arm tit machine. Everyone wants some of that tit (traders want bonds, people want houses), and the people who maintain machines (the SEC) are not authorized to do any work on bonds. So even though you can look at the machine and see smoke coming out of the gearbox and hear bearings start to whine, nobody will allow any work to be done on it so long as they are still getting some tit.
And the only people who get a seat belt are the traders, and they ALSO know that when this machine breaks, the feds will replace it again (may not be accurate, but that's what they believe), and they just get right on the new machine and start harvesting that magical tittie.
Don't forget the people who see the smoke, and then bet on the damn thing to fail.
Don't forget the lawyers, who will happily do deals predicated on the value of those loans, then turn around and sue people for selling those loans without due diligence.
Quote from: LMNO on January 23, 2019, 05:49:09 PM
Don't forget the people who see the smoke, and then bet on the damn thing to fail.
That's precisely what I was talking about. A crow doesn't watch a battle and hope nobody dies. It is not in its interest.
Might want to keep an eye on the non-performing loan market. Large volumes of activity...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Quote from: Cain on January 25, 2019, 01:06:13 PM
Might want to keep an eye on the non-performing loan market. Large volumes of activity...
I have been. My hair is standing on end.
Stupid fucking humans.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/household-net-worth-falls-by-largest-amount-since-the-great-recession-new-fed-data-shows/ar-BBUv6Po?ocid=spartanntp
CALLED IT
https://www.apnews.com/db64d0f087604af888fc0f4c2fb3dd65
WHEEEEEEE!
https://www.apnews.com/5971375c7d6546e692ac3db6b93b0822
Optimistic title, content will make you shit yourself.
https://www.apnews.com/5fa760bc103c4c4a97fcdeeba2e41c42
So if I'm reading this right: unless you have your money invested for the real long haul, or in either the right emerging markets (total crapshoot) or consumer retail outlets (low growth if any), pull it now because it's all downhill from here. That right?
Quote from: nullified on August 15, 2019, 07:16:30 PM
So if I'm reading this right: unless you have your money invested for the real long haul, or in either the right emerging markets (total crapshoot) or consumer retail outlets (low growth if any), pull it now because it's all downhill from here. That right?
Or place it in critical stocks (the ones that if failed means civilization has failed and money doesn't matter).
But accept the fact that you are a minnow in a huge, unregulated tank of Oscars.
Quote from: Doktor Howl on August 15, 2019, 10:08:30 PM
Quote from: nullified on August 15, 2019, 07:16:30 PM
So if I'm reading this right: unless you have your money invested for the real long haul, or in either the right emerging markets (total crapshoot) or consumer retail outlets (low growth if any), pull it now because it's all downhill from here. That right?
Or place it in critical stocks (the ones that if failed means civilization has failed and money doesn't matter).
But accept the fact that you are a minnow in a huge, unregulated tank of Oscars.
I've had my 401k all in "Capital Preservation" funds since last October. As far as I can tell, it's the least risky option I have, and which is normally meant for people who have already retired and can't afford to wait for a crashed market to recover.
Quote from: Emo Howard on August 15, 2019, 10:16:40 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on August 15, 2019, 10:08:30 PM
Quote from: nullified on August 15, 2019, 07:16:30 PM
So if I'm reading this right: unless you have your money invested for the real long haul, or in either the right emerging markets (total crapshoot) or consumer retail outlets (low growth if any), pull it now because it's all downhill from here. That right?
Or place it in critical stocks (the ones that if failed means civilization has failed and money doesn't matter).
But accept the fact that you are a minnow in a huge, unregulated tank of Oscars.
I've had my 401k all in "Capital Preservation" funds since last October. As far as I can tell, it's the least risky option I have, and which is normally meant for people who have already retired and can't afford to wait for a crashed market to recover.
"Least risky" means "eat cat food when you are 76."
Also, the longer you are retired, the more aggressive you have to be. Everyone - including people that should know better - gets this backward.
It is an endurance contest between your cash reserves and your heartbeat. The cash reserves should win. Staying conservative guarantees failure at some point, usually about the point where you CAN'T go back to work. The worst of all possible outcomes.
If you are fucking about with stock, you go aggressive and stay aggressive.
Quote from: Doktor Howl on August 15, 2019, 11:15:11 PM
Quote from: Emo Howard on August 15, 2019, 10:16:40 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on August 15, 2019, 10:08:30 PM
Quote from: nullified on August 15, 2019, 07:16:30 PM
So if I'm reading this right: unless you have your money invested for the real long haul, or in either the right emerging markets (total crapshoot) or consumer retail outlets (low growth if any), pull it now because it's all downhill from here. That right?
Or place it in critical stocks (the ones that if failed means civilization has failed and money doesn't matter).
But accept the fact that you are a minnow in a huge, unregulated tank of Oscars.
I've had my 401k all in "Capital Preservation" funds since last October. As far as I can tell, it's the least risky option I have, and which is normally meant for people who have already retired and can't afford to wait for a crashed market to recover.
"Least risky" means "eat cat food when you are 76."
Also, the longer you are retired, the more aggressive you have to be. Everyone - including people that should know better - gets this backward.
It is an endurance contest between your cash reserves and your heartbeat. The cash reserves should win. Staying conservative guarantees failure at some point, usually about the point where you CAN'T go back to work. The worst of all possible outcomes.
If you are fucking about with stock, you go aggressive and stay aggressive.
I don't plan on keeping it in there forever. I had it in medium-high aggressive funds right up until I suck it all under the virtual mattress. I had been at a slight loss compared to not having done that up until the last couple of days when it went back to about even.
Also, I can't research and hand pick stocks in my 401k. I just have a certain set of funds that I can choose from. Though, I did drop every penny I could onto my company's stock when they offered it to us at just over half price.
Also and, I dunno nuthin bout no calls and puts and options and whatnot. I really should scrounge up some real gambling money, and learn how to play.
https://www.apnews.com/bac6a76b8c0d4f8897d2c8612d2b5bfd
I have wondered about Trump's job numbers. They always seemed too good to be true, given the disruption I am hearing on the industry side regarding the trade wars
You mean the president lies??
Quote from: Cain on August 21, 2019, 09:34:05 PM
I have wondered about Trump's job numbers. They always seemed too good to be true, given the disruption I am hearing on the industry side regarding the trade wars
It is also worth mentioning that the BLS still doesn't count people who have been out of work for more than 6 months. In addition to this.
https://www.apnews.com/93bdaf6dc4ac489cb7c796845f5a13ec
It's almost as if this was predictable. :lulz:
Quote"Our tools for fighting recession are no doubt more limited (than) in the past," said Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard University's Kennedy School.
Who could have forseen that denying governments funds via tax rises might lead to them not having enough money to counteract recessions?
Nobody could have known.
Quote from: Cain on August 23, 2019, 03:02:51 PM
Quote"Our tools for fighting recession are no doubt more limited (than) in the past," said Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard University's Kennedy School.
Who could have forseen that denying governments funds via tax rises might lead to them not having enough money to counteract recessions?
Nobody could have known.
This has never happened 3 times in my lifetime. :lulz:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/negative-yield-bonds/
There are currently $17 trillion worth of negative-yielding bonds out there.
As I understand it, a bond has negative yield when the current price of the bond is higher than the redemption value plus the remaining interest payments. This means that if you hold the bond to maturity, you will actually lose money.
As absurd as this sounds, it's actually a good idea; if, for example, if bond prices increase indefinitely, or if you sell just before the price crashes, or if you are in a situation where it's safer to keep your money in bonds than in a zero-interest cash account. :|
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 26, 2018, 11:45:48 PM
Quote from: nullified on October 26, 2018, 10:09:14 PM
Quick, tell me how I can take advantage of this for my own personal gain.
If you have a few million around, put it in Goldman Sachs preferred stock. They're going to make out like bandits.
Does this recommendation still hold, and if so, why do you think so? Not considering Impending Doom, GS looks like a decent stock at the moment. They're evil, of course, but I wouldn't be much of a chaotic neutral if my principles weren't negotiable.
Is the likely outcome that a market meltdown will cause a storm of transactions, and GS will earn a few beans each time someone panics?
Anyone know what's going on with the market?
I just made 13 dollars in a day on my ETFs. It wasn't dividends either. I've never made more than a couple dollars in a day.
It's weird, I'd expect more uncertainty.
Quote from: altered on January 03, 2020, 07:44:10 PM
Anyone know what's going on with the market?
I just made 13 dollars in a day on my ETFs. It wasn't dividends either. I've never made more than a couple dollars in a day.
It's weird, I'd expect more uncertainty.
Oil is bouncing up and down like a meth head, and the market is reacting accordingly.
Quote from: chaotic neutral observer on September 22, 2019, 04:35:46 PM
Quote from: Doktor Howl on October 26, 2018, 11:45:48 PM
Quote from: nullified on October 26, 2018, 10:09:14 PM
Quick, tell me how I can take advantage of this for my own personal gain.
If you have a few million around, put it in Goldman Sachs preferred stock. They're going to make out like bandits.
Does this recommendation still hold, and if so, why do you think so? Not considering Impending Doom, GS looks like a decent stock at the moment. They're evil, of course, but I wouldn't be much of a chaotic neutral if my principles weren't negotiable.
Is the likely outcome that a market meltdown will cause a storm of transactions, and GS will earn a few beans each time someone panics?
Better. They insure those transactions. Not that the gamble won't fail, but that the act of making the trade occurs.