Principia Discordia

Principia Discordia => Aneristic Illusions => Topic started by: Doktor Howl on September 16, 2019, 03:53:29 pm

Title: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Doktor Howl on September 16, 2019, 03:53:29 pm
So this happened.

https://www.apnews.com/3c3ce6a941f5489eaa778ccc5db2437c

Quote
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Global energy prices spiked Monday by a percentage unseen since the 1991 Gulf War after a weekend attack on key oil facilities in Saudi Arabia caused the worst disruption to world supplies on record, further fueling heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S.

American officials released satellite images of the damage at the heart of the kingdom’s crucial Abqaiq oil processing plant and a key oil field, alleging the pattern of destruction suggested Saturday’s attack came from either Iraq or Iran — rather than Yemen, as claimed by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels there. A Saudi military spokesman later made the same accusation, alleging “Iranian weapons” had been used in the assault.

Iran rejected the allegations, with a government spokesman saying now there was “absolutely no chance” of a hoped-for meeting between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and President Donald Trump at the U.N. General Assembly next week.

For his part, Trump sent mixed signals, saying his “locked and loaded” government waited for Saudi confirmation of Iran being behind the attack while later tweeting that the U.S. didn’t need Mideast oil, “but will help our Allies!”

(more at link, pics of damage at link)
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Fujikoma on September 16, 2019, 04:42:12 pm
These guys are not going to play nice if we try anything dicey with them. This isn't ISIS or Al Quida, these guys know where our balls are and this is a warning shot.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Doktor Howl on September 16, 2019, 05:07:44 pm
These guys are not going to play nice if we try anything dicey with them. This isn't ISIS or Al Quida, these guys know where our balls are and this is a warning shot.

This wasn't a warning shot.  This attack did more damage to the oil market than anything since Desert Storm.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Cain on September 16, 2019, 05:31:01 pm
The US reaction told Iran it hit a nerve. By punting on the decision itself, it puts Saudi Arabia in the awkward position of having to request it (and given Trump's transactional approach to alliances, he'd likely ask for money as well), suggesting the US has no appetite for a fight.

There's also some evidence to suggest this wasn't a drone attack, but a precision missile attack.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Doktor Howl on September 16, 2019, 06:22:58 pm
The US reaction told Iran it hit a nerve. By punting on the decision itself, it puts Saudi Arabia in the awkward position of having to request it (and given Trump's transactional approach to alliances, he'd likely ask for money as well), suggesting the US has no appetite for a fight.

There's also some evidence to suggest this wasn't a drone attack, but a precision missile attack.

Would the difference be significant?
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Cain on September 16, 2019, 06:51:27 pm
Possibly, I'm not a weapons systems guy so I don't want to say for sure, but the attack was extremely precise, hitting exactly the targeted areas it needed to and nothing else. That kind of precision targeting would be expected from a drone with on-board CCTV, where the pilot can easily correct, but for a surface-to-surface missile it says they have access to some sophisticated targeting systems in addition to intelligence on the facility layout.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Doktor Howl on September 16, 2019, 07:11:38 pm
Possibly, I'm not a weapons systems guy so I don't want to say for sure, but the attack was extremely precise, hitting exactly the targeted areas it needed to and nothing else. That kind of precision targeting would be expected from a drone with on-board CCTV, where the pilot can easily correct, but for a surface-to-surface missile it says they have access to some sophisticated targeting systems in addition to intelligence on the facility layout.

Well, the Iranians are no slouches when it comes to missile technology.  And it's not like the Russians wouldn't slip them some stuff under the table.  Or even over the table.

And this all assumes that Iran had anything to do with it.  They deny it, and a Yemeni group is saying they did it (although they seem to be backed by Iran).
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Cain on September 16, 2019, 07:28:38 pm
Well, the whole Houthi/Iran thing is overblown anyway. Yes, there's elements of support and sympathy, but it's very low key and mostly brought up to suggest the Houthis are not a legitimate political force in Yemen, which they absolutely are.

Iran does have short-range precision missiles, but we're talking the kind of ranges where they would have to be fired from inside Iraq to hit Saudi Arabia, and even then it'd be a stretch. If they did do that, it would implicate the Iranian-aligned elements of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, the government-backed militias who fought ISIS and subsequently were rolled into the Iraqi security structure.

Which would mean another Iraqi civil war. KSA and the USA would tell them to stand down and lean on the Iraqi government to make it happen, but the PMF are popular because they did fight ISIS...and that would be on top of any Iranian conflict.

And if they launched the missile from Iran itself, then someone has been upgrading their missiles from earlier on this year. Which means someone has been naughty. I'm not so sure Russia would provide Iran with advanced missile technology...I never got the impression that Russia fully trusted Iran that closely and the S-300 system was already a significant gift to Tehran.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Cain on September 16, 2019, 07:45:31 pm
I'm not saying they didn't, btw, and China would be another obvious culprit, but it would be a significant upgrade on where they were six months ago.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Frontside Back on September 18, 2019, 12:36:31 pm
Do islamists care about global warming? Anywhere else the strike would've been a clear environmentalist tactic, but in the middle east everything is dubbed as "angry religious people".
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Cain on September 18, 2019, 12:43:18 pm
Iran does suffer terribly in hot summers, which global warming exacerbates.

But I'm pretty sure this is about fucking Saudi Arabia over, especially since the only thing limiting Iranian oil exports right now are US sanctions.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Frontside Back on September 18, 2019, 01:15:43 pm
Messing with Saudis sounds exactly like what a bunch of hippies would do.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Fujikoma on September 18, 2019, 04:49:39 pm
Hippy Illuminati.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Doktor Howl on September 18, 2019, 07:19:14 pm
Hippy Illuminati.

Could you maybe not do this shit in this subforum?
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Juana on September 21, 2019, 01:35:53 am
WELP.  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/u-s-deploy-military-forces-saudi-arabia-after-drone-attacks-n1057216

Quote
The United States is deploying military forces to the Middle East after Saturday's drone attacks on major oil sites in Saudi Arabia that the administration of President Donald Trump has blamed on Iran.

"The president has approved the deployment of U.S. forces which will be defensive in nature and primarily focused on air and missile defense," U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said at a news conference Friday.

Esper did not say how many troops would be sent, but said they would be primarily focused on air and missile defenses.

"As the President has made clear the United States does not seek conflict with Iran. That said we have many other military options available should they be necessary," he said.

Saudi Arabia requested what the secretary described as "extra defensive support," he said, and it will "send a clear message that the United States supports our partners in the region."

 :lulz: I said back in at least like 2015 that it didn't matter who was elected, we'd be going to war and I sort of figured it would be Iran
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Utmost Roast Beef on October 07, 2019, 02:26:14 am
I'm not sure if this is entirely where this ought to go, but if this affects crude oil in the long-term, could that potentially put us back where we were with gas prices at the end of the 00s? Hell knows the last thing we need is anything else contributing to a repeat of the 2008-2010 debacle. I was pretty young for that and I remember how shitty it was.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: altered on October 07, 2019, 02:35:51 am
Oh, I’m actually pretty sure that’s the actual intent. They have a knife to the world’s economic throat. They see the downturn, they see the banks doing bad heathen bullshit again, and they know they can put everyone’s fingers in and start turning the screws, no problem.

The message was certainly received that way, check how seriously literally everyone took this. It was one attack in one of the least stable areas on earth and everyone the world over sat up and started paying attention.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Cain on October 07, 2019, 02:56:21 pm
I'm not sure if this is entirely where this ought to go, but if this affects crude oil in the long-term, could that potentially put us back where we were with gas prices at the end of the 00s? Hell knows the last thing we need is anything else contributing to a repeat of the 2008-2010 debacle. I was pretty young for that and I remember how shitty it was.

It's possible, however the actual effects would vary widely, depending on the location. The US is doing a LOT of fracking nowadays and while it is still reliant on overseas production to fill in the gaps, those numbers have dropped considerably due to a surge in US crude oil production.

A shooting war in the Straits of Hormuz would more negatively affect India and China, both of whom get significant amounts of their oil from Iran and Iraq specifically. The US "only" gets about 14% of its oil from that region, while still a considerable amount it can afford to look elsewhere to make up the shortfall (and both Canada and Mexico would no doubt be willing...especially if it allowed them to pressure Donald Trump a bit).

Overall prices would spike, definitely...but the $100+ per barrel price may still be a way off.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Doktor Howl on October 11, 2019, 06:02:12 pm
https://www.apnews.com/55f68b50763c40eeb25ee19027573d86

Iranian tanker apparently hit by two missiles.
Title: Re: Saudi Arabia vs Iran. FIGHT!
Post by: Doktor Howl on December 06, 2019, 05:43:23 pm
Looking back on this, the ONLY faction that benefited from the attack was the Saudis themselves.