Principia Discordia

Principia Discordia => Techmology and Scientism => Topic started by: The Wizard Joseph on February 29, 2020, 03:39:29 pm

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on February 29, 2020, 03:39:29 pm
This thread and topic originated in the Trump Hilarity thread. Things are no longer hilarious. This thing is definitely going to do some game changing damage. Rumors of an engineered origin are unsubtantiated but because of the unusual symptom spectrum and infection rate as well as the not entirely uncertain possibility of post symptomatic latency infection and reoccurrance I cannot discard the possibility at this time. I very much wish I could, but this thing is WEIRD for a coronavirus and quite destructive out of all proportion.

Well, there was a report of someone in Japan who tested positive twice.  I suspect that she either wasn't cured completely, or someone messed up the labwork, but an intermittently lethal virus that humans can't develop a long-term immunity to would be a pretty neat doomsday weapon.

If it doesn't get you the first time, just wait for the next go-around!

I was just reading about this.  Coronavirus immunity doesn't last very long.

But it's not THAT short.  The test was bad?
Quite possibly. Or whatever chemical signature they were looking for was still present post-symptoms

There is a small but real chance it remains dormant in the system post-symptoms, if so it just might reemerge symptomaticly later like impetigo, even be infectious asymptomatic like. This is not my opinion, but if more double positive tests occur it would be a... Bad indication.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

It's much worse than I thought. It causes damage to various organs and systems in a very unpredictable symptom presentation. Incubation ~5 days, 4-7 range reported, coronaviruses can range from 2-14.

A range like that makes it extremely difficult to track from site to site, and I suspect we'll be unable to keep track at all very soon because we already have tertiary cases.

Virus rna shows up in various discharges and fluids as well as active viruses, rna may be detected for weeks after. If folks are testing positive well after symptom cessation this is hopefully why. If they are STILL testing positive for rna a month from now it means they are still producing waste rna. That STRONGLY would imply that the virus is still replicating and infectious. By the time we know it WILL be far too late. If it's still replicating post symptoms it DEFINITELY has a REAL chance of a completely different symptom presentation as it enters otherwise protected systems. It would build up in the body over time potentially breaching the blood-brain barrier. I shudder to think what this fucker would very likely do to your mostly defenseless grey matter.

Cain you said that a bioweapon that presents only a nasty flu would be a let down... If you read the symptom spectrum it's NOT THE FLU BUDDY!

This one is a monster and if it does what my worst fear here implies... It just might be engineered, at first, but will heavily mutate over time into SEVERAL or even DOZENS of unique strains in relatively short order. It may be debilitating, deadly, prolific, and ultimately incurable. I've made a LOT of humanity killers in Plague Inc. This thing has all the right stuff not to wipe out, but to suppress a whole culture with illness and death at great medical cost in what will soon be an environment of limited supply. Stock up on hand sanitizer, masks, and impermeable gloves. They may not save you, but they will soon be very valuable trade goods.

I give it 4 months at a guess, then the political rallies become a deathbed, and they're feeding the idiots dangerous propaganda already, intentionally.

Fuck I hope I'm wrong and this will pass by then, but I SERIOUSLY doubt it. The infection control protocol is basically a medical space suit right down to full facial eye protection. This thing is very upsetting in the best case scenario. The worst case, if I'm right about the latency period and a second symptom expression in the brain, would seem to me a perfect storm by design or chance.

It will make no difference which.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on February 29, 2020, 04:06:10 pm
what's interesting about this case is that, now that nobody trusts the government (especially the Chinese government) nobody is sure how much panic is appropriate.

this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU&t=196s) is worth a watch and provides some good perspective

of course - it was produced by someone who appears to be chinese.  is it just chinese propaganda? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on February 29, 2020, 04:39:26 pm
This is an article with charts showing various economic effects of the virus in China so far.

https://www.capitaleconomics.com/the-economic-effects-of-the-coronavirus/ 


The effect on the US under current conditions will be quite dramatic and along these lines. I have not yet taken the time to analyze the charts, but when I get a chance I'll give my opinions.

There's more

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/global-markets-coronavirus-crash-wipes-%245-trillion-off-world-stocks-2020-02-28

This was just yesterday, one single day. The markets reopen on Monday. Expect more, probably much more. If the US descends into crisis, and this is very likely, the bond market will break as 0 confidence of repayment soars. The US could go broke or even have its economy bought like a Rothschild fire sale. Either way the military complex we support will break down and possibly factionalize. Many super weapons may hit the black market as factions seek funds. It could get pretty fucking bad.

I hate to say this, but bitcoin is sitting at a record low around 8600 and can be traded in for most currencies. Bitcoin would be a wise investment, even just a few if you can. As currency markets drop the cryptocurrency market will rise dramatically. If you just can't stand cryptocurrency on some sort of moralistic grounds shorting the dollar will also work. Failing that strike high valueoptions contracts if you can with long terms of execution. As the currencies drop these will be worth small and not so small fortunes.

This post does not constitute licenced advisement of any sort. Do consider getting ahold of a professional financier to discuss things and execute transactions.

If you are poor buy bottles of Everclear, durable shop towels and regular paper. You will need to do a lot of sanitizing on the cheap. Look into the trade goods listed above. Get a weapon if you can and learn to use it properly. Stay in touch with friends but only meet if absolutely necessary for safety.

At a certain point of infection saturation handling unsanitized cash will become risky. Wear gloves if you don't know it's clean for a fact. Keep it in a sealed container. A few hours of direct sunlight should work if you have no other means of sanitization. Expose both sides. Expect lots of desperate people in the US with plenty of guns and good reason not to let you get within 12 feet.

More as things progress.
Hope for the best.
Expect the worst.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on February 29, 2020, 05:10:15 pm
what's interesting about this case is that, now that nobody trusts the government (especially the Chinese government) nobody is sure how much panic is appropriate.

this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU&t=196s) is worth a watch and provides some good perspective

of course - it was produced by someone who appears to be chinese.  is it just chinese propaganda?
No panic is appropriate.
Much panic will happen.
This isn't China's plot,
If there is one at all.
You fail to fully grasp
The fullness of the situation.
Not tryna dis you,
But keep studying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on February 29, 2020, 05:24:18 pm
i'm one of the american citizens with plenty of guns - and my nearest neighbors are 100 acres away.

i fully expect to get sick as I have kids in school tho.

i have what i think is a reasonable cache of food stored up and my chickens poop out more eggs everyday.

the stock market (https://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/) looks like it may be done with it's initial panic as yesterday it was pretty flat.

i agree it's not wise to be over confident, but i also think it may be being blown out of proportion.

Do you think there is any merit to the notion that the disease disproportionately affects asians due to their genetic predisposition to have more ACE-2 receptors or something to that effect?

for anectdotal evidence, my american friend that lives in shanghai is reporting that things are getting better and people are going back to work on a limited basis.  my american friend that lives in japan has reported that schools are closing down - for up to a month. 

my cheap chinese doohickey that I ordered off amazon January 19th arrived in the mail a couple days ago (5 weeks)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on February 29, 2020, 05:26:52 pm
Watched the video.
It's pure sophistry.
The infection rate
Rises way too fast
Disproportionate
To even swine flu.
Then they show you death,
Death of every kind.
And it puts the spike
In back of your mind.
I think it means to
Kill us by means of
Illegitimate,
False comparative,
Fatal Deception.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on February 29, 2020, 05:40:58 pm
well that's a bummer
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 01, 2020, 05:55:30 am
well that's a bummer
Yeah. I figure that if the second presentation thing comes to pass I need to be ready for it, so I must plan and organize like it will. I really tired of this heavy death trip I seem to be on. Now by reading a technical document I mostly understand and seeing the data I am forced to inform and act, but it must be done wisely. Godspeed everyone. I'll keep digging tomorrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on March 01, 2020, 02:01:02 pm
Quote
Do you think there is any merit to the notion that the disease disproportionately affects asians due to their genetic predisposition to have more ACE-2 receptors or something to that effect?

The disease is also reported to disproportionately affect smokers. It's worth noting that China, in particular, has a LOT of smokers. Male smoking rates in South Korea are also usually high by the standards of developed economies. It's also been reported that men are more easily infected than women, and in both countries it is mostly men who smoke.

It's not definitive, of course, but it is an interesting data point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on March 01, 2020, 04:13:52 pm
I hate to say this, but bitcoin is sitting at a record low around 8600 and can be traded in for most currencies. Bitcoin would be a wise investment, even just a few if you can. As currency markets drop the cryptocurrency market will rise dramatically.
Bitcoin doesn't seem to have figured out if it wants to be a currency, a long-term investment, or a store of value.  Aside from its built-in liquidity problems, I'm not convinced there's an outcome where I'm better off holding a USB-key worth of bitcoins rather than a wallet full of coloured paper.

Gold has some of the same problems (and advantages) as bitcoin, but it isn't dependent on third-party unregulated infrastructure to be traded, and is less susceptible to blinking out of existence.  (Not that I'm rushing out to buy bullion, either).

Quote
If you just can't stand cryptocurrency on some sort of moralistic grounds shorting the dollar will also work.
Short the dollar against what?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 01, 2020, 04:35:19 pm
I hate to say this, but bitcoin is sitting at a record low around 8600 and can be traded in for most currencies. Bitcoin would be a wise investment, even just a few if you can. As currency markets drop the cryptocurrency market will rise dramatically.
Bitcoin doesn't seem to have figured out if it wants to be a currency, a long-term investment, or a store of value.  Aside from its built-in liquidity problems, I'm not convinced there's an outcome where I'm better off holding a USB-key worth of bitcoins rather than a wallet full of coloured paper.

Gold has some of the same problems (and advantages) as bitcoin, but it isn't dependent on third-party unregulated infrastructure to be traded, and is less susceptible to blinking out of existence.  (Not that I'm rushing out to buy bullion, either).

Quote
If you just can't stand cryptocurrency on some sort of moralistic grounds shorting the dollar will also work.
Short the dollar against what?
Fuck you're right. All of the currencies drop then there's nothing to short it against. I'm used to thinking about forex as X against the dollar. I misspoke. The options thing should still work, but if all the currencies drop there's nothing to hold value.

Thanks for pointing that out.

Bullion or bit coin should not be your primary investment. Either could prove extremely useful, but trade goods are going to be what you want. Nobody notices an extra bottle of sanitizer here, a few masks there. Gold particularly will get noticed. That would be inadvisable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on March 01, 2020, 08:52:43 pm
Quote
Do you think there is any merit to the notion that the disease disproportionately affects asians due to their genetic predisposition to have more ACE-2 receptors or something to that effect?

The disease is also reported to disproportionately affect smokers. It's worth noting that China, in particular, has a LOT of smokers. Male smoking rates in South Korea are also usually high by the standards of developed economies. It's also been reported that men are more easily infected than women, and in both countries it is mostly men who smoke.

It's not definitive, of course, but it is an interesting data point.

yes, i had heard that smoking was a factor and that china has a lot of smokers.  also - the pollution is much worse there, I believe.  I think there are a lot more men in china due to the one child policy - so that may be skewing the infection rate by gender numbers.

one bonus i read is that you supposedly don't get a runny/stuffy nose from this virus. i hate a cold where you're constantly blowing your nose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on March 01, 2020, 09:53:54 pm
Quote
I think there are a lot more men in china due to the one child policy - so that may be skewing the infection rate by gender numbers.

Yeah, that's definitely a good call as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 12:19:40 am
The smoking thing is simple. Smokers tend to touch their faces more and you can't smoke with a respirator or facemask in place. The males thing may be cultural in men being more likely to attempt to disobey government orders and otherwise be risk takers. The one child thing is probably only slightly skewing the data from multiple countries at this point. I am quite concerned about the animal vector.

See if it can infect animals maybe it can infect other microbes. When they say "novel" coronavirus it means previously unobserved form. It means that the virus is unknown to public science. It might just be able to trojan in on other microbes your body considers benign. The fucker has no observed place in nature and a coronavirus "chassis" in a sense, but one never seen before.

I hear that the meat market that was ground zero was across from a bio research firm possibly doing research that would be illegal in the US for certain... Entities. Even if it's not an actual weapon, even a loose research tool engineered outside of nature would have a field day if let loose by accident or design as ALL cellular structures and immune systems would be novel to IT and potential sources of mutation. Thing is viruses are only really useful for rewriting genetic code. If it's an escaped tool it might actually be worse than a bio weapon. Bio weapons generally burn out on their own mortality rate and run out of live hosts, which are usually human only.

This thing is quite possibly some form of bio industrial hazardous material. It could in fact be much more dangerous than a bio weapon.

It's NOVEL and they're hiding something about it from the public about it. I suspect that the truth fully known might undo the social order very quickly.

Found out Wisconsin has
*checks notes*
Exactly one confirmed case that tested negative twice and was released two days ago. They tested like 16 people in their life and found only one positive result. I'll keep an eye out, but am glad to hear of at least one double negative test. It means that the virus will probably pass. Probably. If it's truly novel because it's engineered for research each human host will be a somewhat different environment, potentially a source of novel mutation. Mutation and reinfection data will just have to see how it progresses.

The mechanism of mortality is still not publicly known, but folks just fell over in the streets in Wuhan.  People are not necessarily succumbing to symptoms. A small percentage just fall over one day where they stand. That alone is a horrible sign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 12:56:33 am
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ycrqXJYf1SU

Watching this now.
Watch this NOW!!
It's mandatory history.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 01:03:32 am
Four unconfirmed cases in Milwaukee and three confirmed in Chicago region. This region is now on a fuse. I live between these cities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 01:21:20 am
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/coronavirus-updating-charts-maps
Yeah it's buzzfeed, but the charts and data are supported elsewhere. This has good charts and maps. Were I playing Plage Inc. With these numbers on the average difficulty, the most realistic simulation, I would be expecting to see total saturation very soon. Like maybe half a year. The mortality rate seems at a glance to be about 2%. By way of comparison the Spanish flu was about .5% iirc. Mass graves are probably going to make a comeback.

 :kingmeh:  :fnord:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Frontside Back on March 02, 2020, 12:10:24 pm
At what point should I stop picking my nose and smearing the boogers all over my furniture?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 12:55:44 pm
At what point should I stop picking my nose and smearing the boogers all over my furniture?

This novel coronavirus can remain on surfaces for up to 9 days. So at the very least stop being all nasty. Like right now. Aah.   Aah.   I see you Frontside. Stop. Ok now put it back in there and go blow yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: LMNO on March 02, 2020, 01:22:06 pm
I'm gonna be the first on this thread to declare that there's more smoke than fire here.

Tons of hype, lots of fear.

There will be death, yes.  But it won't be a plague.  And when it doesn't live up to the hype, Trump will declare himself a genius by "destroying" the virus in the US.  And people will believe him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on March 02, 2020, 03:44:34 pm
Dow is up 250 right now.  I agree, there's a LOT of smoke...

Regardless of the outcome, there is much to be learned with this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 02, 2020, 03:49:34 pm
I'm gonna be the first on this thread to declare that there's more smoke than fire here.

Tons of hype, lots of fear.

There will be death, yes.  But it won't be a plague.  And when it doesn't live up to the hype, Trump will declare himself a genius by "destroying" the virus in the US.  And people will believe him.

They will believe him while they are all braying spittle all over each other at rallies.

I am okay with this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 05:54:44 pm
Establishing for a fact that there is a level 4 biohazard research facility not far from the exotic meat market known to be ground zero. Strangely I have heard that not all of the initial cluster of victims had been anywhere near the market.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C2XHmevrePk
5 year old vid about the building of the facility.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC0gww2yznI
Establishes further its proximity to the market and that at least some Chinese scientists suspect the lab, but there is no direct proof beyond proximity. I would add no proof that the public knows of, yet.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Zl0V-OhZYk4
Further establishes the meat market as ground zero. And the remarkable speed of international spread. It had spread to at least 2 nearby nations by the time they even announced human to human transmission. Airborne transmission is about 6 feet without ppe.


As to "smoke"... There IS a fire growing daily. Most often the smoke is the most deadly part. I'm doing my best to supply factual information and do not believe that I am overstating the potential danger here. I hope to fuck that folks are reading the articles and watching the vids entirely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 02, 2020, 06:18:42 pm

Establishes further its proximity to the market and that at least some Chinese scientists suspect the lab, but there is no direct proof beyond proximity. I would add no proof that the public knows of, yet.


Correlation != causation.  Also, this would be the DUMBEST weaponized microbe know to mankind.  It has a ridiculous incubation time, which means that it will eventually come back on your own people, and in the vast majority of cases, symptoms are either not present or trivial.

LASTLY, we don't yet have the tech to do this.  Weaponized germs right now are either existing viruses or engineered bacteria.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 06:46:32 pm

Establishes further its proximity to the market and that at least some Chinese scientists suspect the lab, but there is no direct proof beyond proximity. I would add no proof that the public knows of, yet.


Correlation != causation.  Also, this would be the DUMBEST weaponized microbe know to mankind.  It has a ridiculous incubation time, which means that it will eventually come back on your own people, and in the vast majority of cases, symptoms are either not present or trivial.

LASTLY, we don't yet have the tech to do this.  Weaponized germs right now are either existing viruses or engineered bacteria.

There is a scholarly article called

Decoding evolution and transmissions of novel pneumonia coronavirus using the whole genomic data

Copypasta that into even Google and you will find both the document and various analysis. The document itself is mostly over my head, but the common consensus on its observations is pretty consistent that the virus did not in fact originate from an animal in the market, but was brought from outside and circulated there heavily.

Here's Pakistan's take. Most of the rest of the returns are along these lines.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/decoding-the-evolution-and-transmissions-of-the-novel-pneumonia-coronavirus-using-whole-genomic-data.655381/

The lab specializes in viruses. I suspect not so much a weapon made to kill, but a tool meant to be contained that got loose, which might be ultimately worse. Weapons tend to burn out on their own mortality rate. This might just be a truly novel virus that never traveled through nature, so every system animal, microbial, and human that it infects may well cause mutations. The CDC document in the op cites a neoplasm in the blood and tissues. That means that the substance has never been seen before and such things are usually associated with novel cancers, not viruses. If it came up through nature in the usual way, it's unique in both form and effect.

I don't actually care whether or not it's engineered. I do believe that the evidence is sufficient to have suspicion, not assume otherwise. It won't matter. The data is clear. This thing is entirely new to the party, debilitating, deadly, and prolific far beyond most viruses of its kind. The biome and human civilization will never be the same again.

I know that sounds dramatic, but I would not say it if I had no reason to. The data is clear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: LMNO on March 02, 2020, 07:18:55 pm
So, current reports say that it's been in the US for at least three weeks now, which means it's already spread throughout the general population.


And the fact that vast swaths of people haven't been cut down like scythed wheat lead me to believe that it's very dangerous to a small group of those who are already health-compromised. 

Which is still terrible, but it's not riding a pale horse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 02, 2020, 07:31:30 pm
So, current reports say that it's been in the US for at least three weeks now, which means it's already spread throughout the general population.

This is all based on a number of assumptions that are themselves based on potato and wishful thinking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 02, 2020, 07:33:31 pm

The lab specializes in viruses.

Does the lab specialize in studying viruses or altering viruses? 

Quote
I know that sounds dramatic, but I would not say it if I had no reason to. The data is clear.

It sounds like Mike Pence level fuckery.  The data is not at all fucking clear, unless you "clarify" it by wanting a result when you set out to look.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on March 02, 2020, 07:48:56 pm
it took 19 days for china to go from ~20 cases to over 100.

7 days after that there were over 1000.

another week and there were 10,000

30,000 the week after that.

based on that, I think everyone's St Patrick's Day plans will be ok, but April Fool's Day is gonna suck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on March 02, 2020, 07:54:04 pm
Previous health scares like H1N1 have conditioned me to have the following responses:


We also gotta remember that the media is broken, and so people are more likely to listen to fringe media. I have a friend who is normally very reasonable , but this week he keeps sending me youtube links, saying "The media isn't telling the truth, but this guy on youtube has been making really good predictions.... I trust him, and he says we should start getting go-bags ready."
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 08:18:55 pm

The lab specializes in viruses.

Does the lab specialize in studying viruses or altering viruses? 

Quote
I know that sounds dramatic, but I would not say it if I had no reason to. The data is clear.

It sounds like Mike Pence level fuckery.  The data is not at all fucking clear, unless you "clarify" it by wanting a result when you set out to look.

1. Doesn't matter which if something did in fact get loose. You don't build an lv4 containment facility over the course of 10 years and get internationally certified just for the fun of it all. I don't know that for a fact but can't discard the possibility. There's direct evidence supporting the theory that it did not come from an animal in the market, but fuck it. The origin is at this point moot.

2. Ok. Comparing me to Pence aside, I DON'T want this analysis to go where it has. Do you doubt my character? I admit to questionable objectivity because of various various mental conditions and other recent difficulties that nearly overwhelmed me, but do you believe me stupid based upon your own analysis of what I have presented here? Is my mental competence in question?

If you genuinely believe that those questions are a yes, then ask me to just shut up, and I will. God knows that I have better things to do with my time than stand up and blither like an idiot on the internet.

If not then I guess I'll just keep posting as I find more info and the numbers continue to climb. Maybe my personal analysis is entirely off the reservation. I still feel compelled to share the relevant info to folks who may give a shit, because I give a shit about them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on March 02, 2020, 08:30:44 pm
In the most sincere, heartfelt way I can manage, TWJ... yes, this is stupid.

You mention several times that Plague Inc is a source of info for you, for God’s sake. You overstate the case on symptoms and post fearmongering videos. You repeat the “biotech engineered virus” conspiracy theory uncritically (they’ve found the likely source of the virus in pangolins, my dude). You do actually need to consider what you’re doing, because you’ve lost touch with the real world.

The biggest possible risk of COVID-19 is that it becomes endemic in the US because of our healthcare and dickhanded response to it. This isn’t end of the world territory by miles. Worse diseases have hit larger numbers of people in less time and humanity moved on. This won’t so much as cause a bump in the road.

I am not diminishing the deaths. They suck. But by god, I count us all lucky our big breakout novel virus pandemic is shitty pneumonia that doesn’t even infect children. It could be so, so, so much worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 02, 2020, 08:38:38 pm
Ok then. This thread is done as far as I am concerned. Don't bother answering my previous questions Dok.

I'm just going to pretend that this never happened.
I'll just get back to the lulz and yucks.
Clearly I need to get my head straight.
Not even going to get particularly salty about it.
I will assume that I just don't actually know shit and just need to keep taking my meds and going to medical appointments.
I actually feel kinda relieved.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 02, 2020, 09:11:41 pm
This is just an example of Hanlon's Razor:  "Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity."

Also, regular old Occam's Razor:  "Is it more likely that - like ebola - the disease traveled from animals to humans, or is it more likely that scientists used unannounced technology to create a 4th rate virus and then had it escape from a level 4 biolab or for some reason deliberately release it?

Again, it has the opposite values for the criteria that make a useful bioweapon.  Long incubation, low mortality rates among healthy individuals.  Not particularly debilitating to most people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on March 02, 2020, 09:23:53 pm
I was enjoying this thread.  I'm sorry if it is over.

To use a metaphor:  we all know winter is coming.  Now is a good time to gather firewood.

Maybe it'll be a mild winter and we'll all be happy.  Maybe it will be a very hard winter and we'll be happy we gathered wood.

We do know we've never had a winter quite like the one that's coming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 02, 2020, 09:25:40 pm
https://apnews.com/45393d272612f46899d269b1966c869a

So, if the death rate of 3% is to be believed, then at least 200 people have the virus.  We know that 91 people have it.

Which means there are 109 people out getting their Typhoid Mary on.

If I thought for a moment that we'd actually learn from this, I'd say that it's actually been beneficial.  Loads of epidemiology math is getting tested, and pandemic response methods are being tried.  Some things we thought were obvious aren't as obvious as they seem (ie, "social distancing" causes more problems than it solves).
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: tyrannosaurus vex on March 03, 2020, 12:41:54 am
I'm just sad that this isn't the end of the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on March 03, 2020, 01:30:22 am
As a side note, I love that people are calling it "winnie the flu"
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 03, 2020, 01:51:56 am
The first vaccine is already ready for trials. New method using mRNA to trigger the immune response, rather than manufacturing the virus and attenuating it for injection.

Even if it doesn't work first shot, this new style of vaccine is going to revolutionize immunizations. You're looking at a potential for less side effects by not using the dead virus or bacteria. I can't have the full TDAP since I'm allergic to the acellular pertussis component. If they can manipulate mRNA for a new pertussis vaccine, those of us with the allergy can be safely immunized without reaction.

https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_term=health_&linkId=83175567&fbclid=IwAR2_A1-X1h8R7wPBK2iXGqKGAlvESBkWOOA-RloOV0ghfrMyhcOcKC-YQ1A
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on March 03, 2020, 02:33:46 am
This sounds cool but also scary.

Makes me feel like I'm turning into my grandfather who refused to eat anything cooked in a microwave because "it's fucking radiation"

He died of cancer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 03, 2020, 02:49:33 am
This sounds cool but also scary.

Makes me feel like I'm turning into my grandfather who refused to eat anything cooked in a microwave because "it's fucking radiation"

He died of cancer.


Science is fucking scary, but vaccines save lives. I'm not fond of being a potential vector for whooping cough that can kill a baby too young to be vaxxed because some fucking Karen decided her kids were going "natural".
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 03, 2020, 03:10:33 am
This sounds cool but also scary.

Makes me feel like I'm turning into my grandfather who refused to eat anything cooked in a microwave because "it's fucking radiation"

He died of cancer.


Science is fucking scary, but vaccines save lives. I'm not fond of being a potential vector for whooping cough that can kill a baby too young to be vaxxed because some fucking Karen decided her kids were going "natural".

*ahem*

It's called "clean" now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 03, 2020, 03:19:36 am
This sounds cool but also scary.

Makes me feel like I'm turning into my grandfather who refused to eat anything cooked in a microwave because "it's fucking radiation"

He died of cancer.


Science is fucking scary, but vaccines save lives. I'm not fond of being a potential vector for whooping cough that can kill a baby too young to be vaxxed because some fucking Karen decided her kids were going "natural".

*ahem*

It's called "clean" now.

Oh, did they find out that arsenic is also natural?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on March 03, 2020, 03:21:47 am
I'm not knocking science - I'm just saying that irony, tho. 

He died of cancer cuz the doc told him on account of his diabetes, better quit smoking - so he switched to chewing red man (or maybe beechnut? Cant quite remember - maybe both)  died of throat cancer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on March 03, 2020, 10:54:27 am
The food market is no longer believed to be Ground Zero for the virus

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/27/Reports-Chinas-first-COVID-19-patient-not-linked-to-seafood-market/1201582811760/

Quote
Feb. 27 (UPI) -- Chinese authorities said the first known patient of the new coronavirus in Wuhan had no connection to Huanan Seafood Market, which authorities have previously said is ground zero for COVID-19, according to Taiwanese press reports.

Eastern Broadcasting Co. and Liberty Times reported Thursday that China's first patient had shown symptoms of COVID-19 as early as Dec. 8. Chinese authorities have previously said the outbreak began on Dec. 31.

The statement from the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention published in Taiwanese news media marks the first time Chinese authorities have provided an alternative explanation of the source of the deadly outbreak.

Quote
On Jan. 24, the Lancet, an independent medical journal, published a study showing Wuhan's first patient was not connected to the seafood market. A joint research team representing China's Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Huanan Agricultural College and the Chinese Institute for Brain Research have also said the seafood market is not the source of COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 03, 2020, 04:37:12 pm
I'm beginning to wonder if this has been around much longer than we thought, and has been chalked off as the flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on March 03, 2020, 04:48:21 pm
That is what China seems to be saying, with its earlier dated first patient.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 03, 2020, 05:09:07 pm
Also, Pence seems to have been potentially exposed down here in Florida. Hilarity ensues.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on March 03, 2020, 10:20:46 pm
Also, Pence seems to have been potentially exposed down here in Florida. Hilarity ensues.
What a time to be alive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on March 03, 2020, 10:30:30 pm
Welp, the Fed cut the rate by half a percent to protect the economy, and the S&P 500 responded by falling 2.8%.

 :omg:

So, does anyone stand to profit from this mess?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 03, 2020, 10:36:01 pm
Welp, the Fed cut the rate by half a percent to protect the economy, and the S&P 500 responded by falling 2.8%.

 :omg:

So, does anyone stand to profit from this mess?

Whoever the pharma bro is that is going to buy the vaccine as soon as it's out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: LMNO on March 04, 2020, 01:05:20 pm
Warren Buffet, and anyone else who has several million to buy up all the undervalued stock.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 04, 2020, 01:49:45 pm
Warren Buffet, and anyone else who has several million to buy up all the undervalued stock.

Much of the stock isn't undervalued.  Prices have fallen on low earnings warnings, because shipments have been stopped and supply chains have dried up.  It's 50% likely that the rebound was a dead cat bounce.  We'll know by the middle of this month.

Corrections happen.  Sometimes they happen to you.

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on March 04, 2020, 02:05:46 pm
Welp, the Fed cut the rate by half a percent to protect the economy, and the S&P 500 responded by falling 2.8%.

 :omg:

So, does anyone stand to profit from this mess?

Whoever the pharma bro is that is going to buy the vaccine as soon as it's out.

I prefer to refer to him by his legal name, federal inmate number 87850-053.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 12, 2020, 12:47:15 am
The Senate killed the emergency sick leave bill. Cool. I get to actually live the late 19th Century.

We're just gonna let the invisible hand of the free market sort this one out until people get sick of sweeping the dead out of the gutters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 12, 2020, 01:28:23 am
200 dead in Italy in the last 24 hours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 12, 2020, 03:30:23 am
200 dead in Italy in the last 24 hours.

I am coming to terms with the fact that my father is going to die from this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on March 12, 2020, 05:25:56 am
A lot of people are going to die.

I have to say, I expected the collapse of civilization as we know it would start from climate change. Instead, it’s a virus that we could have stopped.

Fuck. People DID stop it in multiple countries. And the West let it burn.

I feel weird.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 12, 2020, 07:31:27 am
:rimshot:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 12, 2020, 02:12:36 pm
A lot of people are going to die.

I have to say, I expected the collapse of civilization as we know it would start from climate change. Instead, it’s a virus that we could have stopped.

Fuck. People DID stop it in multiple countries. And the West let it burn.

I feel weird.

That's because white people are invincible. Everybody knows that new viruses only go after brown people and Chinese people.  :roll:

Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on March 12, 2020, 06:30:53 pm
200 dead in Italy in the last 24 hours.
do we know the demographics of the dead?
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: tyrannosaurus vex on March 12, 2020, 07:23:48 pm
200 dead in Italy in the last 24 hours.
do we know the demographics of the dead?

A recent survey of them yielded no responses
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 12, 2020, 07:54:46 pm
200 dead in Italy in the last 24 hours.
do we know the demographics of the dead?

Apparently almost entirely the elderly.  Italy has the oldest population, IIRC.

In any case, they are using the word "triage" here and there.  Which is awful, but also necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on March 13, 2020, 12:36:04 pm
"What this pandemic reveals, is that health and wellbeing have to be placed outside of the laws of the market"

- Emmanuel Macron, 3/12/20

The above quote makes me both upset and optimistic. If there is a moment when things like socialized health care, UBI, can be discussed and taken seriously, it's in moments like this, where the deficiencies of the current system are in the foreground. The system-failure is visible.

I feel like we're living through another 9/11-like moment, in that all of our lives are going to change after this. It's a time of change, for better or worse.




Rep Katie Porter, HERO, badgers Trump's CDC chief into agreeing to make Corona Virus testing free.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/politics/katie-porter-cdc-coronavirus-testing-white-board/index.html
(here's the tweet with the video (https://twitter.com/RepKatiePorter/status/1238147835859779584))

Katie Porter points out that the CDC head has the authority to waive testing costs. And that because costs are high, people without insurance just aren't gonna get tested, which will make everything worse for all of us.

She's awesome, the whole line of questioning is sharp and hard-hitting. He tries to dodge, ("we're gonna look at it", "our goal is to make sure everybody can get coverage") and she backs him into a corner until he submits.


Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez demands the government distribute a universal basic income and implement 'Medicare for all' to fight the coronavirus (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-aoc-demands-universal-basic-income-other-radical-measures-2020-3?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=sf-bi-main&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR3LUMwuirMbQ_nYDk7caSt7suVehVmaLjGLUK047Havc02hAjfnupN0qxQ)

The democrats, predictably, aren't including any of her ideas in the bill they're propsing. They advocate for expansion of unemployment benefits, but as AOC points out, people like tipped workers are not gonna see any of that money.

So the dem bill is a half measure. And even that is getting blocked by McConnell in the senate, who says it's a partisan, ideological wish list that doesn't match what's actually happening. We all should have learned from the Obamacare debacle, that with this GOP, you don't start from a position of compromise, you gotta start out from the far left, because they're gonna haggle and water it down and we'll ultimately get a dessicated, gollum-like version of the bill.



Angela Merkel, ever the straight-talker, lays out the hard to hear facts that most world leaders are afraid to say: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-merkel/merkel-says-coronavirus-situation-more-extraordinary-than-banking-crisis-idUSKBN20Z3NR

Though the quote doesn't appear in the above article, she basically presents the worst-case scenario, that 2/3rds of germans will eventually get the disease. A vacciene is a long ways out, and we may have to buckle in, as this isn't gonna be neatly resolved in 2 weeks.

Forbes, of course, has a really bad take on this (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/03/11/why-angela-merkel-is-wrong-on-her-coronavirus-infection-prediction/#79fcda814af5). Discussing the pandemic only in terms of economic damage, they frame Merkel's message is "taking a bazooka to her own economy". What? They quote a bunch of fucking stock traders about how her numbers must be wrong.  :boring:






Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 13, 2020, 02:27:22 pm
Pima county (Tucson, Vail, etc) is now considered infected. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on March 13, 2020, 02:34:39 pm
Forbes, of course, has a really bad take on this (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/03/11/why-angela-merkel-is-wrong-on-her-coronavirus-infection-prediction/#79fcda814af5). Discussing the pandemic only in terms of economic damage, they frame Merkel's message is "taking a bazooka to her own economy". What? They quote a bunch of fucking stock traders about how her numbers must be wrong.  :boring:
This is called technical analysis.  It's the art of predicting tomorrow's weather by going out to the parking lot and counting puddles.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on March 13, 2020, 03:08:24 pm
out of curiosity, been reading foxnews's coverage... you know shit's getting weird when they do a whole article about AOC's recent fox news appearance (https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/aoc-suggests-coronavirus-tests-in-us-going-to-wealthy-and-powerful-first) and don't say anything critical about it.

Same with Katie Porter's questioning.. the fox article (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dem-rep-katie-porter-cdc-chief-to-commit-to-free-coronavirus-testing) mentions that Katie Porter is a Dem but doesn't say anything snarky.

I wonder - are they hedging their bets?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on March 13, 2020, 03:26:40 pm
(https://66.media.tumblr.com/364dbf61225271e42d31a4cfcbcf398e/daf3084c4bfafea3-9e/s1280x1920/f18f0b6e2e6266c7e061e5791b50ef620bf71549.jpg)
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on March 13, 2020, 04:02:49 pm
200 dead in Italy in the last 24 hours.
do we know the demographics of the dead?

Apparently almost entirely the elderly.  Italy has the oldest population, IIRC.

In any case, they are using the word "triage" here and there.  Which is awful, but also necessary.
That's what I suspected, and yeah, sometimes that's just how it needs to happen.

Pima county (Tucson, Vail, etc) is now considered infected. 
Fun times. We don't have a *confirmed* case yet here, but the state medical board is saying on the down low that it's been here for a while.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 13, 2020, 04:57:54 pm
200 dead in Italy in the last 24 hours.
do we know the demographics of the dead?

Apparently almost entirely the elderly.  Italy has the oldest population, IIRC.

In any case, they are using the word "triage" here and there.  Which is awful, but also necessary.
That's what I suspected, and yeah, sometimes that's just how it needs to happen.

Pima county (Tucson, Vail, etc) is now considered infected. 
Fun times. We don't have a *confirmed* case yet here, but the state medical board is saying on the down low that it's been here for a while.

The safest way to handle this is to assume that your area is already affected.  We've been doing that for two weeks at work, probably too late.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on March 13, 2020, 05:23:54 pm
200 dead in Italy in the last 24 hours.
do we know the demographics of the dead?

Apparently almost entirely the elderly.  Italy has the oldest population, IIRC.

In any case, they are using the word "triage" here and there.  Which is awful, but also necessary.
That's what I suspected, and yeah, sometimes that's just how it needs to happen.

Pima county (Tucson, Vail, etc) is now considered infected. 
Fun times. We don't have a *confirmed* case yet here, but the state medical board is saying on the down low that it's been here for a while.

The safest way to handle this is to assume that your area is already affected.  We've been doing that for two weeks at work, probably too late.
Yep. I've been operating on that assumption since I heard the thing about it being here already on the DL in idk January and so is my school district at this point, given that they're cancelling everything but team practices and classes. The school I was at yesterday asked all the teachers to clear off any surface they wanted sanitized, even.

It's only a matter of time before somebody tests positive here and frankly, I'm pretty sure that the reason reported rates are so low thus far is the lack of available testing. I'm hearing that every infected person can infect up to four others. If that's the case, it's more infectious than the flu and that's a goddamn plague.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 13, 2020, 06:25:54 pm
200 dead in Italy in the last 24 hours.
do we know the demographics of the dead?

Apparently almost entirely the elderly.  Italy has the oldest population, IIRC.

In any case, they are using the word "triage" here and there.  Which is awful, but also necessary.
That's what I suspected, and yeah, sometimes that's just how it needs to happen.

Pima county (Tucson, Vail, etc) is now considered infected. 
Fun times. We don't have a *confirmed* case yet here, but the state medical board is saying on the down low that it's been here for a while.

The safest way to handle this is to assume that your area is already affected.  We've been doing that for two weeks at work, probably too late.
Yep. I've been operating on that assumption since I heard the thing about it being here already on the DL in idk January and so is my school district at this point, given that they're cancelling everything but team practices and classes. The school I was at yesterday asked all the teachers to clear off any surface they wanted sanitized, even.

It's only a matter of time before somebody tests positive here and frankly, I'm pretty sure that the reason reported rates are so low thus far is the lack of available testing. I'm hearing that every infected person can infect up to four others. If that's the case, it's more infectious than the flu and that's a goddamn plague.

Bleaching bathroom and class doorknobs is a thing.  That is the single largest vector for the flu, and probably would help with this.  We are doing that now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on March 13, 2020, 08:15:22 pm
Someone left the doors to one of the stairwells propped open, so when I took a different stairwell, I left one of its doors propped open, as well; it's one fewer doorknob to touch.

Later, when I went to the washroom, all the stairwell doors had been propped open; and the outer washroom doors, too.

This is starting to feel weird.

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Q. G. Pennyworth on March 14, 2020, 07:37:22 pm
Protip: hot sauce belongs on your list of emergency supplies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 16, 2020, 12:33:37 am
The Navy has locked us down. Jephph can't go anywhere beyond work and home and necessary stops for at least six weeks. All of our events have been cancelled. WELP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on March 16, 2020, 01:20:22 pm
Trump's reelection depends on his response to all this.
And I sincerely hope he handles this well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on March 16, 2020, 03:05:34 pm
There was a cyberattack on the The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

www.reuters.com/article/us-healthcare-coronavirus-usa-cyberattac/cyberattack-hits-u-s-health-department-amid-coronavirus-bloomberg-idUSKBN21320V

article is a little light on details
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on March 16, 2020, 08:23:10 pm
There was a cyberattack on the The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

www.reuters.com/article/us-healthcare-coronavirus-usa-cyberattac/cyberattack-hits-u-s-health-department-amid-coronavirus-bloomberg-idUSKBN21320V

article is a little light on details
Well that's just dandy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on March 16, 2020, 08:39:30 pm
I just called my local hospital and offered to start building these:
https://www.instructables.com/id/The-Pandemic-Ventilator/ (https://www.instructables.com/id/The-Pandemic-Ventilator/)

they said, "thanks, maybe later"

but maybe wanna pass it on.  it sounds like the "you live/you die" decisions are being made due to a lack of ventilators
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 17, 2020, 03:23:56 am
We (the Chief and I) just got the 48-72hr warning on the National Guard.

It hasn't hit the press yet, don't go looking for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 17, 2020, 01:38:48 pm
We (the Chief and I) just got the 48-72hr warning on the National Guard.

It hasn't hit the press yet, don't go looking for it.

Maybe in the United States.

In Tucson, we aren't doing shit except the muggers wear proper masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 17, 2020, 01:56:06 pm
Turns out India is even dumber than we are.

https://apnews.com/58b05ada591d1028cc775d45b55c3eac
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Saint Mannequin Molester on March 18, 2020, 12:01:46 am
To all my Australian Discordians:

Scott Morrison, a.k.a. Scomo, released an announcement this morning. No more than 100 people in an enclosed space, don't hoard stuff, and don't go overseas. We are stuck on our itty bitty island, back to being prisoners like the convicts before us. Also, he's going to keep the schools open as long as he can.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/coronavirus-australia-live-updates-aussies-ordered-home-new-restrictions-in-bars/news-story/13fd59d3b5d3f74e46f986bf1302e066
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 18, 2020, 02:17:09 pm
We are stuck on our itty bitty island, back to being prisoners like the convicts before us.

Yeah.  It's a pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on March 18, 2020, 03:27:48 pm
Working from Home from today, at least that is possible. My mother works accounts for a fish processing plant and they are all being laid off on Friday temporary. Not because there are no fish, but because none of the hotels are ordering.
Herself(my fiance) is now 6 weeks away from due date so we are basically not setting foot outside.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on March 18, 2020, 03:32:24 pm
https://thepaperchase.bandcamp.com/album/someday-this-could-all-be-yours-vol-1

Just listen to any of these songs. Ideal lyrics for our current situation. The Common Cold is our new national anthem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Q. G. Pennyworth on March 18, 2020, 04:26:30 pm
Feeling physically better today, gonna see how 2 pm hits me but for now it's a lot better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on March 18, 2020, 04:41:03 pm
Feeling physically better today, gonna see how 2 pm hits me but for now it's a lot better.

Wait, did you catch it? God, best hopes for you and the husband! Serious finger crossing on my end.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Q. G. Pennyworth on March 18, 2020, 05:10:57 pm
Feeling physically better today, gonna see how 2 pm hits me but for now it's a lot better.

Wait, did you catch it? God, best hopes for you and the husband! Serious finger crossing on my end.

I had a thing. There's no tests and the tests that exist are trash, so every sniffle you kinda have to assume. We have at least one confirmed case in the city and something like 57 presumptive ones (with actual health care interaction) so basically between 500 and 5000 people have it and maybe more than that. There was a confirmed case at the casino one if the days the husband was there, so we have a plausible vector. Anyway, my immune system is a boss and I'm staying in to make sure I don't give this to anyone else, whether it's The Plague or just a minor bug that could still chew up resources and threaten elderly folks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 18, 2020, 06:50:32 pm
Surprise, surprise, surprise.

https://apnews.com/7994b669d63c73db4d3f73d444e53b25

If you don't give your employees sick time, your granny dies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 19, 2020, 03:20:49 pm
We have a case at Naval Station Mayport, where I live. My guess that means that the sailor's entire command was exposed, which means the base, which means housing, which means the commissary.

On that note, I fucking hate you all, and I want to be cremated.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on March 22, 2020, 06:00:30 pm
Rand Paul had tested positive for Coronavirus  (http://"https://www.axios.com/rand-paul-coronavirus-847b3df1-92bc-4ee6-833b-952d16f3ee3f.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100&fbclid=IwAR1bUV6C-MBb2Yl6jcEAW9VcXB-b4MYN7IKnupzJYvVXBNG3cnPeDi65UpU") :lulz: now, if only he started showing symptoms, we'd be set.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on March 22, 2020, 06:44:16 pm
If only he were 20 years older.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on March 22, 2020, 06:48:28 pm
Yeah, alright, he probably won't die of the virus but I'd accept showing them for schadenfreude.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on March 23, 2020, 08:13:36 pm
the stimulus bill that the democrats just blocked --- it handled the cash payouts to citizens as an advance on a future tax refund. So essentially, Mitch is giving us the opportunity to borrow from our future selves. It's money you would otherwise receive in April 2021.

The gov could choose to handle these payouts as a "gift", but then you've gotta pay taxes on it - possibly as high as 40%.

https://electionopinions.com/2020/03/21/mitch-mcconnells-dirty-double-cross-on-stimulus-checks
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 23, 2020, 11:30:38 pm
the stimulus bill that the democrats just blocked --- it handled the cash payouts to citizens as an advance on a future tax refund. So essentially, Mitch is giving us the opportunity to borrow from our future selves. It's money you would otherwise receive in April 2021.

The gov could choose to handle these payouts as a "gift", but then you've gotta pay taxes on it - possibly as high as 40%.

https://electionopinions.com/2020/03/21/mitch-mcconnells-dirty-double-cross-on-stimulus-checks

Yeah, it's like Bush 43's "advance rebate."
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on March 24, 2020, 10:35:13 pm
If that's how it goes down, I can't afford to take them and neither can anyone else. I can't wait for this slow motion suicide to finally fucking end, holy mother of god.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 27, 2020, 07:10:44 am
I know that I said I was done, but I want to note two incongruous facts that you all can go google for yourselves if you doubt me.

1. The 'Rona is actually a chimera of two different coronaviruses, the first time such has ever been seen in "nature".

2. She's got NO recombination in her genome despite being a retrovirus. That means that it has never jumped species or genetically combined despite being a first of its kind "natural" viral chimera. .

I'm just gonna drop it again now, wouldn't want to say something stupid.

Reconcile these facts without calling it artificial, or prove them non-factual, and I'll buy you a drink when it's all over.  :cheers:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on March 27, 2020, 09:09:09 am
Right, I'm going to have to step in here.

The first part is definitely a thing, but as for the second, I'm going to need you to provide sources. Because repeated scientific analysis has stated that the virus was not artifically made, outlets that have claimed so have subsequently retracted those claims after being confronted by scientists for misreading the evidence, and so far the only government source I have seen claiming otherwise is Russia.

The same Russia that has been reported as trying to use the virus to spread wider forms of misinformation on social media.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 27, 2020, 09:31:20 am
Right, I'm going to have to step in here.

The first part is definitely a thing, but as for the second, I'm going to need you to provide sources. Because repeated scientific analysis has stated that the virus was not artifically made, outlets that have claimed so have subsequently retracted those claims after being confronted by scientists for misreading the evidence, and so far the only government source I have seen claiming otherwise is Russia.

The same Russia that has been reported as trying to use the virus to spread wider forms of misinformation on social media.

Ok.

"Researchers have found that no recombination event has occurred in the genome of the new coronavirus, but there are mutations between the genomes. It is unclear whether this mutation will affect the activity of the new coronavirus and it needs to be verified by other professionals in proteomics and structural biology. ."

That's a direct copypasta from the article including the strangely Harry Potter like double period at the end.

https://recombinomics.co/topic/4895-south-china-seafood-market-in-wuhan-is-not-the-origin-of-the-new-crown-virus/?fbclid=IwAR0cfmTvvbhbEBEO9LPXNo_2HyHgDHrqgg_NveYNxYsN-5uG0oKV6Q1jd98

As for the meaning of recombination and how it occurs in retroviruses Wikipedia is pretty much accurate and a few keywords will readily do the proving.

Russia may be, FAR FROM UNIQUELY, profoundly deceptive, but maybe, just maybe, the truth is far worse than any lie they might tell amd so they're just calling it like it is in this case. Just maybe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on March 27, 2020, 02:42:07 pm
China has also been accusing the US of making the virus into a weapon, and that article was initially sourced from a Chinese publication, specifically The Beijing News, whose subsidiary owners are themselves owned directly by the Chinese Communist Party.

However, researchers outside of China have studied the virus genome, and undertaken comparative studies between Covid-19 and other forms of disease that can commonly affect bats and pangolins. Their conclusions were (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9), and I quote: "“we can firmly determine that SARS-CoV-2 originated through natural processes.”

This is also the scientific consensus of the vast majority of international bodies, such as WHO, the CDC, and a number of national medical bodies and university-based research labs. So far, the only publications I see pushing the possibility the virus is not natural are extremely suspect, to put it mildly. The Daily Express, a purveyor of crank material daily in the UK, and widely considered less reliable than the Daily Mail, no mean feat in and of itself. Publications with links to the Chinese or Russian governments. And far-right troll factories like Breitbart, who would love to blame China because they believe the US needs to go to war with China to maintain primary in the 21st century.

I really hope you are not sharing this disinformation elsewhere.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: tyrannosaurus vex on March 27, 2020, 02:49:20 pm
I don't see what the point would be of engineering this virus anyway. It doesn't kill enough people to be a threat to the species, but it's extremely effective at ruining the economies that support anything a bad actor could stand to gain. Personally it seems to me that identifying this pathogen as being manufactured only serves to inspire a hunt for a human or set of humans to blame for all this carnage, and that kind of motive is a lot more plausible than creating this virus in a lab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 27, 2020, 02:53:22 pm
This isn't man made.  There is precisely zero chance of that being the case.

You are processing and spreading bad signal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on March 27, 2020, 02:53:28 pm

My ignorance of the subject does not allow me to fully understand the question, so in an attempt to educate myself about the nCoV’s genetically synthetic qualities, I enlist some Chinese propaganda I found in Nature

(https://i.imgur.com/xTVtWag.png)


Quote
Further analysis indicates that some of the 2019-nCoV genes shared less than 80% nucleotide sequence identity to SARS-CoV. However, the amino acid sequences of the seven conserved replicase domains in ORF1ab that were used for CoV species classification were 94.4% identical between 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV, suggesting that the two viruses belong to the same species, SARSr-CoV.


We then found that a short region of RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) from a bat coronavirus (BatCoV RaTG13)—which was previously detected in Rhinolophus affinis from Yunnan province—showed high sequence identity to 2019-nCoV. We carried out full-length sequencing on this RNA sample (GISAID accession number EPI_ISL_402131). Simplot analysis showed that 2019-nCoV was highly similar throughout the genome to RaTG13 (Fig. 1c), with an overall genome sequence identity of 96.2%.


— httpx://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7)


don’t know no microbiology
and don’t want no drink
still
that variance made me think
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 27, 2020, 02:54:14 pm
Fuck's sake.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on March 27, 2020, 02:57:31 pm
If you fuckwits are going to start spreading disinformation through JAQing off, you can do it elsewhere.

Here's what happens when you spread shit like this:

Quote
Rumours that the virus was created or spread deliberately have already led to reported attacks on Chinese nationals across South East Asia as well as in the UK. A video claiming to show Chinese officials shooting coronavirus victims and alleging tens of thousands were executed went viral on social media sites worldwide, after the celebrity sister of a prominent Bollywood actor in India shared them. The video was in fact edited from four completely unrelated clips, including one of Chinese police shooting a rabid dog.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 27, 2020, 02:59:33 pm
I concur 100%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on March 27, 2020, 03:12:58 pm
For once I agree. My amygdala will take no more damage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on March 27, 2020, 03:14:01 pm
I try not to draw conclusions when I don't understand the evidence.

I don't even know the name of the subject matter I'd need to study to understand the evidence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on March 27, 2020, 03:26:43 pm
If anybody wanted to do significant damage with a virus, all they need to do is break open a vile of smallpox. No engineering required, we don't enough vaccine stock anymore, 96% infection rate, and 33% mortality rate. A third of the world's population aged under the last date of mandatory vaccination (The 1970s?) would die. The vaccine is also fucking terrifying and people don't like getting it. If you survive, you're usually permanently disfigured.

There's enough of it laying around still in random refrigerators that the CDC and WHO don't know about.

There is no need to work that hard at bioterrorism when the planet provided as much evil as we need.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on March 27, 2020, 03:50:02 pm
A third of the world's population aged under the last date of mandatory vaccination (The 1970s?) would die.

It's worse than that.  The smallpox vaccine will have mostly worn off, by now.

https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/vaccine-basics/index.html
Quote
Smallpox vaccination can protect you from smallpox for about 3 to 5 years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 27, 2020, 04:25:28 pm
This isn't man made.  There is precisely zero chance of that being the case.

You are processing and spreading bad signal.

Then I shall stop entirely. I sure as fuck have not been making my clearly dangerous speculation public. Just here. Now that I think about it even if I knew it for a fact to be true, and that's not what I'm claiming, spreading it in this ontological environment would be very dangerous to a lot of innocent people and I had not considered that.

I will stop now, but I make no apology for thinking as I have and posting here because I need to be checked intellectually to actually have the truth. I appreciate that about even my most unpleasant experiences at PD deeply.

If we get through this EVERYONE'S first drink is on me.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on March 27, 2020, 05:32:16 pm
Apparently both Prince Charles  (http://"https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-52033845") and Boris Johnson  (http://"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52060791?fbclid=IwAR3EEYDgwnpIj6gUil91aoTqdzftgUnOe8qv2yJCxCWmmUyU15b5NEO-l6I") have tested positive.


Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 27, 2020, 06:39:55 pm
If you fuckwits are going to start spreading disinformation through JAQing off, you can do it elsewhere.

Here's what happens when you spread shit like this:

Quote
Rumours that the virus was created or spread deliberately have already led to reported attacks on Chinese nationals across South East Asia as well as in the UK. A video claiming to show Chinese officials shooting coronavirus victims and alleging tens of thousands were executed went viral on social media sites worldwide, after the celebrity sister of a prominent Bollywood actor in India shared them. The video was in fact edited from four completely unrelated clips, including one of Chinese police shooting a rabid dog.

What is JAQing off exactly? I can't understand an acronym I'm unfamiliar with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on March 27, 2020, 06:40:43 pm

Thanks Obama!
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on March 27, 2020, 07:13:55 pm
If you fuckwits are going to start spreading disinformation through JAQing off, you can do it elsewhere.

Here's what happens when you spread shit like this:

Quote
Rumours that the virus was created or spread deliberately have already led to reported attacks on Chinese nationals across South East Asia as well as in the UK. A video claiming to show Chinese officials shooting coronavirus victims and alleging tens of thousands were executed went viral on social media sites worldwide, after the celebrity sister of a prominent Bollywood actor in India shared them. The video was in fact edited from four completely unrelated clips, including one of Chinese police shooting a rabid dog.

What is JAQing off exactly? I can't understand an acronym I'm unfamiliar with.

“Just Asking Questions”. “I’m open to being wrong but doesn’t this look compelling?” https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Just_asking_questions
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 27, 2020, 07:22:39 pm
If you fuckwits are going to start spreading disinformation through JAQing off, you can do it elsewhere.

Here's what happens when you spread shit like this:

Quote
Rumours that the virus was created or spread deliberately have already led to reported attacks on Chinese nationals across South East Asia as well as in the UK. A video claiming to show Chinese officials shooting coronavirus victims and alleging tens of thousands were executed went viral on social media sites worldwide, after the celebrity sister of a prominent Bollywood actor in India shared them. The video was in fact edited from four completely unrelated clips, including one of Chinese police shooting a rabid dog.

What is JAQing off exactly? I can't understand an acronym I'm unfamiliar with.

“Just Asking Questions”. “I’m open to being wrong but doesn’t this look compelling?” https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Just_asking_questions

Neat. I'm not acting in bad faith, but the paraxox of even making the accusations is itself obfuscation.

"It should be noted that accusing one's opponent of "just asking questions" is a common derailment tactic and a way of poisoning the well. Asking questions in and of itself is not invalid."

If you believe me some sort of provocatuer or that I'm otherwise acting in bad faith ask me to go and I will never post again. Otherwise don't accuse me of such directly or indirectly ever the fuck again.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: tyrannosaurus vex on March 27, 2020, 09:20:17 pm
I think the question of "acting in bad faith" isn't as cut and dry as that, tbh. It doesn't take a specific devious motive to act in bad faith, only misallocated priority points, even unconsciously so. Appeals to ideas about nebulous and mysterious possibilities that flout good and available scientific explanations despite a potential danger to human life would count, as far as I am concerned, but I'm also a little extreme in my own positions and liable to make the same misstep in other cases. TWJ, I suspect that you, like me, may be prone for some reason to read more into things than is actually there in order to put a tidy lid on something unfathomable. I wouldn't ask you to top posting forever, only to forego the usual conspiratorial thinking in this specific situation because in this climate it can and will lead directly to more suffering, and there's already more than enough to go around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 27, 2020, 09:25:19 pm

If you believe me some sort of provocatuer or that I'm otherwise acting in bad faith ask me to go and I will never post again. Otherwise don't accuse me of such directly or indirectly ever the fuck again.

TWJ,  You are talking to me and Cain and Faust.  We aren't here calling you names or accusing you of anything.  This ain't the old days.

But neither are we prepared to ourselves be screamed at, nor will this become the next GLP.

I say this with nothing but respect:  Snap out of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 27, 2020, 09:35:49 pm
Remember before you get pissed off that I am the crown prince of paranoia and badly filtered data.  I know what you're facing.  I may be the closest thing to "knowing exactly where you are."
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on March 27, 2020, 10:13:19 pm
Also worth noting. In the case of the original JAQ mention, I was 90% sure it was aimed at LuciferX, who positively reeked of bad faith. He stole your poetry schtick after he posted something that didn’t have anything to do with the subject at all as “certainly interesting” (paraphrasing). He stunk of shitty bait.

You, on the other hand, come across as terrified and desperate, like, you know, most people on the planet are right now. I think you were roped into the plural there because your post was the prompt for other idiocy rather than specifically calling you out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on March 27, 2020, 10:35:34 pm
Also worth noting. In the case of the original JAQ mention, I was 90% sure it was aimed at LuciferX, who positively reeked of bad faith. He stole your poetry schtick after he posted something that didn’t have anything to do with the subject at all as “certainly interesting” (paraphrasing). He stunk of shitty bait.

You, on the other hand, come across as terrified and desperate, like, you know, most people on the planet are right now. I think you were roped into the plural there because your post was the prompt for other idiocy rather than specifically calling you out.


Nah, no bad faith here. I actually lost sleep on trying to find data that would quell conspiratorial concerns. That the data was sequenced in China is incidental and to be expected. I’d apologize for the confusion if you required it. Just to make sure, the way I read the data was that the novel Coronavirus does not appear to be man made.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 27, 2020, 10:41:01 pm

If you believe me some sort of provocatuer or that I'm otherwise acting in bad faith ask me to go and I will never post again. Otherwise don't accuse me of such directly or indirectly ever the fuck again.

TWJ,  You are talking to me and Cain and Faust.  We aren't here calling you names or accusing you of anything.  This ain't the old days.

But neither are we prepared to ourselves be screamed at, nor will this become the next GLP.

I say this with nothing but respect:  Snap out of it.

I'm REALLY trying to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on March 27, 2020, 10:43:08 pm
Also worth noting. In the case of the original JAQ mention, I was 90% sure it was aimed at LuciferX, who positively reeked of bad faith. He stole your poetry schtick after he posted something that didn’t have anything to do with the subject at all as “certainly interesting” (paraphrasing). He stunk of shitty bait.

You, on the other hand, come across as terrified and desperate, like, you know, most people on the planet are right now. I think you were roped into the plural there because your post was the prompt for other idiocy rather than specifically calling you out.


Nah, no bad faith here. I actually lost sleep on trying to find data that would quell conspiratorial concerns. That the data was sequenced in China is incidental and to be expected. I’d apologize for the confusion if you required it. Just to make sure, the way I read the data was that the novel Coronavirus does not appear to be man made.

I think the poetry schtick and timing makes the opposite conclusion far easier to reach.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on March 27, 2020, 10:55:40 pm
Also worth noting. In the case of the original JAQ mention, I was 90% sure it was aimed at LuciferX, who positively reeked of bad faith. He stole your poetry schtick after he posted something that didn’t have anything to do with the subject at all as “certainly interesting” (paraphrasing). He stunk of shitty bait.

You, on the other hand, come across as terrified and desperate, like, you know, most people on the planet are right now. I think you were roped into the plural there because your post was the prompt for other idiocy rather than specifically calling you out.


Nah, no bad faith here. I actually lost sleep on trying to find data that would quell conspiratorial concerns. That the data was sequenced in China is incidental and to be expected. I’d apologize for the confusion if you required it. Just to make sure, the way I read the data was that the novel Coronavirus does not appear to be man made.

I think the poetry schtick and timing makes the opposite conclusion far easier to reach.


I can see that about the rhyme, no offense was intended though. I was trying to relate and appreciate the clarification.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 27, 2020, 10:56:32 pm
Remember before you get pissed off that I am the crown prince of paranoia and badly filtered data.  I know what you're facing.  I may be the closest thing to "knowing exactly where you are."

 :cry:

I can't stop crying. What do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 27, 2020, 11:28:52 pm
Remember before you get pissed off that I am the crown prince of paranoia and badly filtered data.  I know what you're facing.  I may be the closest thing to "knowing exactly where you are."

 :cry:

I can't stop crying. What do?

Taking this to PM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 29, 2020, 04:28:19 am
Ever watch someone get dragged for miles on Pubpeer?  Well, you're gonna.  Read the comments.

https://pubpeer.com/publications/3B1F9EAD4982C64445A60F5E83CCFE
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 29, 2020, 05:59:29 am
Ever watch someone get dragged for miles on Pubpeer?  Well, you're gonna.  Read the comments.

https://pubpeer.com/publications/3B1F9EAD4982C64445A60F5E83CCFE

I am far too tired and poorly educated to understand what I am seeing here. What is this website and may I please have a synopsis of what I am seeing here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 29, 2020, 07:09:26 am
This guy gets it and lays it out in easy hermaneutical terms for the lay person. He's also going a little bit crazy, but he's strong! Share this at least once aftef watching it if you would be seen as human by me. If this can be shared enough it will save many lives ultimately and function as a weapon against thost fools who disbelieve the severity of the problem.

He is inaccurate in one thing. It is KNOWN that the virus can easily go from airborne as he describes to aresolized in certain conditions a when that happens one person can potentially infect thousands in close proximity with each other. Not exaggerating. Mask up and get everyone you know to do so and also some form of eyewear if at all possible as an effective statistical measure, but know that it only takes a tiny, tiny sample of aresolized virus to your exposed eye to infect you. It's a bonus on the dice roll, not a means to at all bypass the dice roll.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2DZCqBRrvSH-8hjWu3iKO_bVupuZD_LW_6LJUfy05pz9i9l4hlIegCYGE&v=4J0d59dd-qM
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on March 29, 2020, 08:22:41 am
You are absolutely wrong about the aerosol bit. It can only happen when connecting or disconnecting a ventilator, performing CPR, performing an intubation and a very small number of other situations which would occur in a medical environment. These procedures literally cause any mucus-or-saliva-infectious virus to become aerosolized, because they involve pressurized air flowing through the airway abruptly.

(This is also a risk with any surgical procedure using electric cutting tools, even if the viruses involved aren’t respiratory. Tell a microbiologist that you’re going to break out the circular saw to autopsy an Ebola corpse, and they’ll tell you that you sure as fuck are not doing that within 100 miles of them.)

Important to note: this doesn’t make someone produce aerosol forever more. It is a temporary and immediate kind of deal. While connected or disconnected, while intubated or not intubated, there is no aerosol production. Only during the act of Doing the Medical Thing is aerosol produced.

They have procedures when doing these things with infectious disease patients to ensure aerosolized particles are not spread to high risk locations. These are not new procedures, we have had them out there for a while (IIRC since the 70s).

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/

The headline is misleading: the article literally explains that there are no “normal” cases which cause aerosolization, and that all workers not performing the very few high risk procedures can safely use standard PPE.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

In case you don’t trust a news article (admittedly I know little about the reliability of that news site, so that’s fair). Check the titer comparison for aerosol route. nCoV-SARS-2 is less stable as an aerosol and harder to get that way to begin with than SARS-1.*

https://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/WHO_HSE_EPR_2008_2.pdf

The procedures. Note that “aerosol-generating procedures” have their own special color and involve a separate room and special gear.



Please chill.



* Edited. See, originally, I incorrectly stated that SARS did not transmit by aerosol. I have no fucking clue why, because the paper told me I was wrong and I had just double checked it, on top of actually having a morbid interest in this shit before we had a plague. So, my bad.

I have just double checked any new papers to appear in the past week and a half, and nothing has arisen to contradict the belief that COVID does not spread by aerosol: in fact, this study is the strongest evidence for it. Honestly, considering they intentionally aerosolized the stuff to start, it’s really hard to treat their findings as reflective of the real world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 29, 2020, 01:01:12 pm
I said in certain conditions. You called me wrong and then named some of the conditions. Other special cases have occurred. In S Korea there was a massive cluster that the doctor doing the interview said was caused by one (1) single carrier who participated in a religious service. The 6 foot guideline is for normal breathing and speech. If you shout, sing, or have an uncontrollable cough the natural droplets that contain the virus get finer and travel much farther. In an enclosed area like a church or indoor concert where many people are jumping around, shouting, or otherwise vibrating the air it aresolizes very fast and travels on the micro air currents to extra long distances getting breathed in direcly and also settling on surfaces for indirect contact transmission.

And I am chill. You haven't seen not chill. If you're uncomfortable with my level of intensity now, well, I guess that I can't help you. Did you watch the video? If so respect the good doctor's message and share it please altered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on March 29, 2020, 05:35:41 pm
Trump does not give a shit what the house + senate agreed on, he's doing things his way. Big Businesses can go ahead and pocket the stimulus money, who cares.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/28/21197995/coronavirus-stimulus-trump-inspector-general-wont-comply
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: tyrannosaurus vex on March 29, 2020, 05:52:06 pm
well, what are we going to do about it? impeach him? lol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on March 29, 2020, 06:15:27 pm
I said in certain conditions. You called me wrong and then named some of the conditions. Other special cases have occurred. In S Korea there was a massive cluster that the doctor doing the interview said was caused by one (1) single carrier who participated in a religious service. The 6 foot guideline is for normal breathing and speech. If you shout, sing, or have an uncontrollable cough the natural droplets that contain the virus get finer and travel much farther. In an enclosed area like a church or indoor concert where many people are jumping around, shouting, or otherwise vibrating the air it aresolizes very fast and travels on the micro air currents to extra long distances getting breathed in direcly and also settling on surfaces for indirect contact transmission.

And I am chill. You haven't seen not chill. If you're uncomfortable with my level of intensity now, well, I guess that I can't help you. Did you watch the video? If so respect the good doctor's message and share it please altered.

Firstly: there is no aerosol transmission of SARS-2 when you cough. How can we be sure of this? Because coughing is a very common symptom and it still produces just droplets.

Singing is off the mark for a hospital, so I won’t address it at all, but given the descriptions of the neuralgia COVID comes with, shouting and screaming are expected. Again, droplets. Normal protections apply.

VERY few things produce aerosols if the disease causing material doesn’t aerosolize by default. There is probably an exhaustive list somewhere, but I don’t have the energy for looking this early in my day.

Finally, later on I’ll look up that sect of Korean Christianity again. That wasn’t aerosol, that was their weird practices.



EDIT: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/why-a-south-korean-church-was-the-perfect-petri-dish-for-coronavirus-11583082110

The members repeatedly hug each other while shouting “Amen!” Aerosol isn’t required or even helpful, it’s almost certain everyone would have been infected by direct contact.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on March 29, 2020, 08:14:56 pm
The frequency at which I visit the grocery store is slightly higher than it should be, now particularly, so we all just watched a decent PSA on the subject.


Safe Grocery Shopping:
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjDuwc9KBps (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjDuwc9KBps)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 29, 2020, 08:45:03 pm
The principal behind why it can aerosolize outside of the hospital setting you have already acknowledged is a simple one. When I can take the time to find it again I will post a link to the interview with the Korean doctor that made me realize the very real threat. It's kinda like a rock tumbler.

Imagine a very tiny microdroplet released into the air by shouting or singing loudly. It's smaller because of the extra force that propelled it and so will already both travel farther and remain airborne longer than one made by simple speech. Now imagine that this incredibly small, fragile "rock" is being subjected to constant, strong vibration in a medium. In this case that medium is the various molecules in the air, dry air being worst for this purpose because it will suck up any surrounding water all the faster. As the microdrop vibrates it sheds water and a virus light enough to float on microcurrents for a very long time before settling to a surface. The droplet does not even have to be completely dissolved for this viral shedding to occur. Even the tiniest droplet can contain may thousands of viruses. One breath in a shout will release untold numbers of such droplets, all of them shedding viruses in a sonic-saturated air mix. Now imagine the folly of being in close quarters with thousands of people all disturbing the air by moving around and shouting like at a hardcore metal concert, as an extreme example, for hours.

It only takes 1 in a mucus membrane like, say, the eye to begin replication. Considering that the carrying person may not even be sick enough to consider a screening test this pretty much makes mass, loud gatherings an incredible hazard. No protests. No concerts, no churches, no nothing if we want to flatten "the curve" meaningfully.

But watch folks do it anyway. Over and over again. Because they have been left uninformed or worse intentionally misinformed. I have hear that kids are licking shit doing a COVID-19 challenge or some shit and otherwise generally ignoring safety guidelines they largely don't have the education to understand anyway. If they are dumb enough to burn themselves with ice and salt or eat a tide pod... Whoever started such a thing needs to be publicly executed IMO, but that won't undo the damage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 29, 2020, 10:45:52 pm
You can't fix stupid.  Not sure we should try.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/nearly-a-dozen-liberty-university-students-sick-with-coronavirus-symptoms-after-falwell-reopened-campus?via=twitter_page
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 29, 2020, 11:35:12 pm
And Big Joe Diffie died of the plague.

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-country/joe-diffie-country-singer-dead-obituary-974556/
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on March 30, 2020, 11:05:33 am
Quote
But watch folks do it anyway. Over and over again. Because they have been left uninformed or worse intentionally misinformed. I have hear that kids are licking shit doing a COVID-19 challenge or some shit and otherwise generally ignoring safety guidelines they largely don't have the education to understand anyway. If they are dumb enough to burn themselves with ice and salt or eat a tide pod... Whoever started such a thing needs to be publicly executed IMO, but that won't undo the damage.

That's what galls me about what is going on the UK.

Part of the problem here is that we got severely mixed messages from the government in the early days. Hell, it's still happening now, despite the "lockdown" coming into effect. People are going to take their cues from the media and what they see their leaders doing. If a leadership say, says "it's alright if most people get infected" and then, after ordering a lockdown, says "if your work won't let you work from home, you should still go in", and shows your leader visiting hospitals and shaking hands with infected people, then yeah, people aren't going to treat it seriously.

Compare that with, say, what Israel is doing. Lord knows I hate Bibi like poison, he's a malignant narcissist and one of the many precursors of the current populist turn in world politics. Yet, what has he been doing? He's been putting out videos showing him using video conferencing and explaining how to go about social distancing. No mixed messages. Explanation combined with leading through example (putting aside the Orthodox Jewish community element of this for now...).

People are going to take their cues from media and from their leaders. The problem starts at the very top, and in countries where there is lacking leadership (like the US) or lacking leadership and a cancerous media landscape (the UK), there will undoubtedly be more cases of people flouting best practices.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Junkenstein on March 30, 2020, 01:04:48 pm
It's to be expected, really. This mob has spent years now shitting on "experts" at every opportunity so it's no shock that a significant chunk of people are ignoring all advice and instructions.

I'm pretty sure the only reason they've done anything at all to control it is that it's likely to hit their voting base. Hard. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on March 30, 2020, 01:39:09 pm
The principal behind why it can aerosolize outside of the hospital setting you have already acknowledged is a simple one. When I can take the time to find it again I will post a link to the interview with the Korean doctor that made me realize the very real threat. It's kinda like a rock tumbler.

Imagine a very tiny microdroplet released into the air by shouting or singing loudly. It's smaller because of the extra force that propelled it and so will already both travel farther and remain airborne longer than one made by simple speech. Now imagine that this incredibly small, fragile "rock" is being subjected to constant, strong vibration in a medium. In this case that medium is the various molecules in the air, dry air being worst for this purpose because it will suck up any surrounding water all the faster. As the microdrop vibrates it sheds water and a virus light enough to float on microcurrents for a very long time before settling to a surface. The droplet does not even have to be completely dissolved for this viral shedding to occur. Even the tiniest droplet can contain may thousands of viruses. One breath in a shout will release untold numbers of such droplets, all of them shedding viruses in a sonic-saturated air mix. Now imagine the folly of being in close quarters with thousands of people all disturbing the air by moving around and shouting like at a hardcore metal concert, as an extreme example, for hours.

It only takes 1 in a mucus membrane like, say, the eye to begin replication. Considering that the carrying person may not even be sick enough to consider a screening test this pretty much makes mass, loud gatherings an incredible hazard. No protests. No concerts, no churches, no nothing if we want to flatten "the curve" meaningfully.

But watch folks do it anyway. Over and over again. Because they have been left uninformed or worse intentionally misinformed. I have hear that kids are licking shit doing a COVID-19 challenge or some shit and otherwise generally ignoring safety guidelines they largely don't have the education to understand anyway. If they are dumb enough to burn themselves with ice and salt or eat a tide pod... Whoever started such a thing needs to be publicly executed IMO, but that won't undo the damage.

In the interest of clear info --

Aerosol droplets don't disperse faster / further because people in the room are being loud.

Here's some info from the World Health Org

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

Quote
According to current evidence, COVID-19 virus is primarily transmitted between people through respiratory droplets and contact routes.2-7 In an analysis of 75,465 COVID-19 cases in China, airborne transmission was not reported.8

here's what droplet vs airborne refers to:
Quote
Droplet transmission occurs when a person is in in close contact (within 1 m) with someone who has respiratory symptoms (e.g., coughing or sneezing) and is therefore at risk of having his/her mucosae (mouth and nose) or conjunctiva (eyes) exposed to potentially infective respiratory droplets. Transmission may also occur through fomites in the immediate environment around the infected person.8 Therefore, transmission of the COVID-19 virus can occur by direct contact with infected people and indirect contact with surfaces in the immediate environment or with objects used on the infected person (e.g., stethoscope or thermometer).

Airborne transmission is different from droplet transmission as it refers to the presence of microbes within droplet nuclei, which are generally considered to be particles <5μm in diameter, can remain in the air for long periods of time and be transmitted to others over distances greater than 1 m.

In the context of COVID-19, airborne transmission may be possible in specific circumstances and settings in which procedures or support treatments that generate aerosols are performed; i.e., endotracheal intubation, bronchoscopy, open suctioning, administration of nebulized treatment, manual ventilation before intubation, turning the patient to the prone position, disconnecting the patient from the ventilator, non-invasive positive-pressure ventilation, tracheostomy, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

in summary - airborne transmission isn't happening. When it does happen, it's because somebody sneezed during a medical procedure.

Dr. Fauci (resident adult in the room) did a really good interview with Trevor Noah the other day. It's worth a watch if only to get the most up-to-date info we have about how the disease is carried and transmitted.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 01:57:09 pm
Well Cramulus I'm not yet willing to entirely concede on the subject of whether or not the virus can aerosolize as I describe, yet. I sincerely hope that I am wrong. I'm going to review your information as well as I can and of course advise that both theirs and DEFINITELY mine be taken with a serious grain of salt due to the early state of the current research.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on March 30, 2020, 02:08:25 pm
If the virus was airborn more than just direct contact coughing sneezing etc on you, then the cases of hospital workers with it would be orders of magnitude higher, the majority are just using gloves, some have plastic face guards, neither of which would do anything for aerosolized spread.
Its not happening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 02:40:43 pm
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

I found the interview and rewatched it just to be sure that I had not misunderstood. The relevant part about aerosol is at about 11min in, but I STRONGLY suggest that you watch the whole thing intently. He is Korea's covid czar, not just some doctor spouting off a personal theory. Anything under 5 microns is considered aerosol. I understand your skepticism and willingness to trust what you're told, but I'm dead serious here and I DO understand this principle as an avid Plague Inc player. Aerosol is a tier 2 attribute of transmission and incredibly effective in dry climates particularly.

It's only a game in the sense of having a goal to eliminate ALL humans entirely and the ability to direct the development of the disease to some extent as random mutation can be a factor of strategic inconvenience, but also a major strength. The only vector that I ever won the game on ultra brutal difficulty was a virus, an aerosol virus with some water transmission as well. Mock me for citing a game if you will, but I am good at it because I also possess strong knowledge for a lay person and a freakish ability to read and anticipate patterns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on March 30, 2020, 03:19:42 pm
Ok, the interview describes people closely packed together into a church-type setting for hours. They are all less than 1m from each other (within droplet range) for a long period of time. It doesn't seem like a reliable indicator that aerosol was the transmitter, it very likely could be that contageous people coughed directly on others, shook hands, hugged, etc.

The doctor goes on to say that if you're not in a closely packed building, aerosol is not dangerous. Even with that being said, he doesn't say that the people in the church were infected via aerosol--he just explains that it could have happened that way. And yeah, if you cough into someone's mouth, the aerosol might be a vector, but the data is saying that it's very rare.

I've heard virus transmission compared to glitter... when you sneeze, visualize that you put a big cloud of glitter in the air--but it doesn't hang there, glitter falls pretty quickly. If someone coughs and then you walk through the room a few minutes later, you're not breathing any glitter. But there may be a fine film of glitter on every surface in the vicinity. If you touch glitter, it's on your hands and then it's on everything else you touch. You gotta scrub really hard to get rid of it. That's what we gotta focus on, that it sticks to everything and remains infectious for a while. You probably don't have to be worried about the air unless someone is couging directly at you.


I don't want to read into your reply too much, but it kinda sounds like you had an expectation based a video game (that COVID-19 is being transmitted via aerosol), and then are judging a source's credibility based on how well it agrees with your assumption. (Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy)

There's a lot of info out there, and evaluating which shit is real can be very tricky. Generally, I trust health organizations over any individual doctor. And I think Dr. Fauci (the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984) is credible, he's likely the top expert in the whole US. If this random Korean doctor is correct, then wouldn't you expect to see confirmation elsewhere? Meanwhile, have any of the statements or predictions made by the WHO fallen apart?

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 05:25:55 pm
The licking doorknobs thing seems to be the same as the buttchugging/pharming thing.

It sounds like something some bored boomer just made up because KIDS THESE DAYS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 07:20:44 pm
Not some random Korean doctor. Their leading epidemiologist. If I were to compare the two based solely on the effectiveness of the suppression in the two countries... Well the charts are pretty clearly in favor of Korea.

It's not glitter at all. Glitter is a solid of generally uniform size visible to the naked eye. It's a terrible analogy in that respect and overly simplistic.

It is not about the coughing into someone's mouth or whatever at all. At that point you're essentially directly sharing a body fluid and medical staff taking the slightest precaution would be unlikely to be getting infected. Instead trained professionals in full ppe are still getting infected VERY commonly.

After a bit of looking into this sharpshooter fallacy you cite if you think I'm ignoring other data just to favor something I already presumed on purpose, painting a bullseye after the shot so to speak you are in essence calling me either deluded or a liar. I didn't even consider aerosol until after I saw the interview and was well aware of the property before I ever played the game. I've been studying medicine independently since I was about 4 and my parents got me a children's book on basic anatomy and function. I knew the difference between a trachea and an esophagus in kindergarten and that the medical term for an asshole was rectum, and gleefully taught the other kids. My interest in the topic has never abated. My mother entered medical school and eventually earned a full LPN. I read just about all of her books and realized after seeing the horror of certain disease progressions that I was a but too squeamish for medical practice and it never became a life goal, but my interest in medicine never abated as a personal study. Later in life for abou 4 yearsI became involved in hospital logistics while working in the laundry department of a massive hospital complex. I got to know many practitioners and became known as the person to talk to because I understand medical terminology and theory far better than even the department management. I have been asked by extraordinarily competent practitioners why I was not a doctor after being able to participate in technical discussions and even give meaningful insight. When the ebola scare happened they turned to me for input on how to best prevent fluid transmission in the laundry and other logistical practices.Some of my insight was implemented like suggesting that possible contaminated loads be specially tagged and bagged before deposit for delivery and that if there was an outbreak that a certain isolated and rarely used chute be specific for such loads so that only one operator in full ppe could transport them as a separate level of priority for sorting and loading into a specially designated washer which would be sanitized after every load.

I am no doctor. I am no scientist. I DO know what I'm talking about and have been relied upon for competent execution and policy writing by both. None of this is a lie or a boast. You're wrong about the sharpshooter thing and although I will give the benefit of the doubt about you not intending to imply dishonesty, imply madness, or insult my intelligence it certainly could be interpreted that way absent such assumptions of your good faith.

I'm not standing on my own, ill informed, authority here but I DO have a lifetime of real experiences with such knowledge. Give me just a little bit of credit. Go back up thread and tell me that I have been entirely inaccurate in prediction so far. Or don't. Wait a few months instead and count the trainloads of corpses that I predict will be coming out of New York.

Remember that Fauci is still working for Trump and is in essence the mouthpiece for an administration that recently decapitated the cdc almost entirely. Fauci may surely quite competent and I believe him honest from what I have seen, but he's working from a broken system and questionable data for an administration that is quite malignant.

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on March 30, 2020, 07:34:10 pm
It is not about the coughing into someone's mouth or whatever at all. At that point you're essentially directly sharing a body fluid and medical staff taking the slightest precaution would be unlikely to be getting infected. Instead trained professionals in full ppe are still getting infected VERY commonly.
Not very commonly, as commonly as would be expected from a virus that can transmit on surfaces or by being coughed or sneezed on.
If it was airborn masks and gloves would not be sufficient, and infection would be near total in hospitals, which its not.
The evidence isnt there to support your more complex, unlikely scenario
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 07:36:39 pm

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.

So do I, but for different reasons.

South Korea is invested in solving the problem.  The United States is invested in public opinion of the problem.  They are taking it seriously, we are not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 09:59:13 pm
It is not about the coughing into someone's mouth or whatever at all. At that point you're essentially directly sharing a body fluid and medical staff taking the slightest precaution would be unlikely to be getting infected. Instead trained professionals in full ppe are still getting infected VERY commonly.
Not very commonly, as commonly as would be expected from a virus that can transmit on surfaces or by being coughed or sneezed on.
If it was airborn masks and gloves would not be sufficient, and infection would be near total in hospitals, which its not.
The evidence isnt there to support your more complex, unlikely scenario

The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of. The virus evolved a nearly perfect method of attachment to the receptors in a human and so it's super virulent. These two factors would barely be noticed if the virus were benign or like a cold, but it's not.

If it can remain active on a bare, nonporous surface for three days or more purely because it resists dessication logically that durability transfers to both aerosol and aqueous mediums. The corpses are infectious. Water that has recently been contaminated and not subsequently sanitized is almost certainly a vector nobody is considering. It absolutely can go aerosol under the right conditions. The conditions necessary for that are rare in a hospital by design and air pressure methods are used to keep such contamination in one room if it happens. Out in the real world such conditions and safeguards are not at all in play.

I'm not arguing because I want to be right here. In fact I'm done arguing at all. I will continue to present information and my analysis as I see something to be relevant. Continue to check me and offer counter evidence because I do need that, but I will continue to say uncomfortable things because this is a virus so dangerous that desire for comfort is now a liability, intellectual comfort itself is something nobody can afford at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 10:12:07 pm
Quote
“They have no right to tell me I need to stay in my house. They cannot impose a travel ban on me. They can’t. it’s unconstitutional,” said Texas-based activist Mark Meckler, a co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots who now leads the Convention of States Project.

Remember the Tea Party?  :lulz:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:13:58 pm

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.

So do I, but for different reasons.

South Korea is invested in solving the problem.  The United States is invested in public opinion of the problem.  They are taking it seriously, we are not.

That is definitely part of my reasons and the fact is largely because of the man in the video who is also considering aerosol transmission.

If I could suggest measures for your workplace policies that err on the side of caution have everyone wear a simple mask to catch droplets while breathing in case they are asymptomatic carriers and also some form of eyewear at all times, something like work safety glasses is better than nothing, but sealed goggles would be better. They must be cleaned at the beginning and end of each shift and kept in house. The masks should be fresh daily and disposed of as biohazardous when they leave.

I read the other measures you have already taken and they are lucky to have you. I do hope that they reflect their appreciation and compensate you accordingly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 10:15:53 pm

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.

So do I, but for different reasons.

South Korea is invested in solving the problem.  The United States is invested in public opinion of the problem.  They are taking it seriously, we are not.

That is definitely part of my reasons and the fact is largely because of the man in the video who is also considering aerosol transmission.

If I could suggest measures for your workplace policies that err on the side of caution have everyone wear a simple mask to catch droplets while breathing in case they are asymptomatic carriers and also some form of eyewear at all times, something like work safety glasses is better than nothing, but sealed goggles would be better. They must be cleaned at the beginning and end of each shift and kept in house. The masks should be fresh daily and disposed of as biohazardous when they leave.

I read the other measures you have already taken and they are lucky to have you. I do hope that they reflect their appreciation and compensate you accordingly.

I have 9 people working in a 3 acre facility and nobody is allowed to be in the same room.  And the Janitor is bleaching the bejesus out of the entire building.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:15:59 pm
Quote
“They have no right to tell me I need to stay in my house. They cannot impose a travel ban on me. They can’t. it’s unconstitutional,” said Texas-based activist Mark Meckler, a co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots who now leads the Convention of States Project.

Remember the Tea Party?  :lulz:
Rand Paul knew for a fact that he had the 'Rona and continued working for six days. That's an act of intentional bioterrorism in my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on March 30, 2020, 10:16:36 pm
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.


[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin’.[/size]
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:17:25 pm

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.

So do I, but for different reasons.

South Korea is invested in solving the problem.  The United States is invested in public opinion of the problem.  They are taking it seriously, we are not.

That is definitely part of my reasons and the fact is largely because of the man in the video who is also considering aerosol transmission.

If I could suggest measures for your workplace policies that err on the side of caution have everyone wear a simple mask to catch droplets while breathing in case they are asymptomatic carriers and also some form of eyewear at all times, something like work safety glasses is better than nothing, but sealed goggles would be better. They must be cleaned at the beginning and end of each shift and kept in house. The masks should be fresh daily and disposed of as biohazardous when they leave.

I read the other measures you have already taken and they are lucky to have you. I do hope that they reflect their appreciation and compensate you accordingly.

I have 9 people working in a 3 acre facility and nobody is allowed to be in the same room.  And the Janitor is bleaching the bejesus out of the entire building.

That's a good scenario. Any high vibration environment that shares the air duct system?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on March 30, 2020, 10:18:17 pm
Joe, I'm sorry if my disagreement came off as personal or dismissive, that was not my intent.


The more I read, the more I realize the jury is still out on how long, exactly, aerosol particles remain in the air.


Dr Fauci states that it's probably not happening that often ("Not the primary way [you get infected]") - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8&t=2m55s

NIH says "possibly up to 3 hours"
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/new-coronavirus-stable-hours-surfaces

This article summarizes a few findings, says the research is mixed
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/

Quote
The studies suggesting that it can be aerosolized are only preliminary, and other research contradicts it, finding no aerosolized coronavirus particles in the hospital rooms of Covid-19 patients.

Quote
The weight of the evidence suggests that the new coronavirus can exist as an aerosol — a physics term meaning a liquid or solid (the virus) suspended in a gas (like air) — only under very limited conditions, and that this transmission route is not driving the pandemic. But “limited” conditions does not mean “no” conditions, underlining the need for health care workers to have high levels of personal protection, especially when doing procedures such as intubation that have the greatest chance of creating coronavirus aerosols. “I think the answer will be, aerosolization occurs rarely but not never,” said microbiologist and physician Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. “You have to distinguish between what’s possible and what’s actually happening.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:18:47 pm
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.


[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin’.[/size]

What is the basis of your belief?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on March 30, 2020, 10:20:02 pm
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.
[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin’.[/size]

What is the basis of your belief?


Physics and logic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 10:21:47 pm

On balance I trust Korea's leading doctor over ours.

So do I, but for different reasons.

South Korea is invested in solving the problem.  The United States is invested in public opinion of the problem.  They are taking it seriously, we are not.

That is definitely part of my reasons and the fact is largely because of the man in the video who is also considering aerosol transmission.

If I could suggest measures for your workplace policies that err on the side of caution have everyone wear a simple mask to catch droplets while breathing in case they are asymptomatic carriers and also some form of eyewear at all times, something like work safety glasses is better than nothing, but sealed goggles would be better. They must be cleaned at the beginning and end of each shift and kept in house. The masks should be fresh daily and disposed of as biohazardous when they leave.

I read the other measures you have already taken and they are lucky to have you. I do hope that they reflect their appreciation and compensate you accordingly.

I have 9 people working in a 3 acre facility and nobody is allowed to be in the same room.  And the Janitor is bleaching the bejesus out of the entire building.

That's a good scenario. Any high vibration environment that shares the air duct system?

Yep.  But it's all turned off.  The production crew has a nice 2 week paid vacation, the facilities crew is doing overhauls.

I will have to find a way to show my appreciation to the facilities guys.  They haven't bitched once.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:22:17 pm
Joe, I'm sorry if my disagreement came off as personal or dismissive, that was not my intent.


The more I read, the more I realize the jury is still out on how long, exactly, aerosol particles remain in the air.


Dr Fauci states that it's probably not happening that often ("Not the primary way [you get infected]") - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8&t=2m55s

NIH says "possibly up to 3 hours"
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/new-coronavirus-stable-hours-surfaces

This article summarizes a few findings, says the research is mixed
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/

Quote
The studies suggesting that it can be aerosolized are only preliminary, and other research contradicts it, finding no aerosolized coronavirus particles in the hospital rooms of Covid-19 patients.

Quote
The weight of the evidence suggests that the new coronavirus can exist as an aerosol — a physics term meaning a liquid or solid (the virus) suspended in a gas (like air) — only under very limited conditions, and that this transmission route is not driving the pandemic. But “limited” conditions does not mean “no” conditions, underlining the need for health care workers to have high levels of personal protection, especially when doing procedures such as intubation that have the greatest chance of creating coronavirus aerosols. “I think the answer will be, aerosolization occurs rarely but not never,” said microbiologist and physician Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. “You have to distinguish between what’s possible and what’s actually happening.”

It's ok Cramulus. Keep reading. If nothing else this has provoked you to study rather than accept what you are being told. I try VERY hard to do the same.

We're, all of us, on this ship together. We must remain respectful or we are doomed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 10:23:09 pm
Oh, we're doomed.  But that's no reason to turn into beasts.

Except for QG, but she was always a beast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:24:28 pm
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.
[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin’.[/size]

What is the basis of your belief?


Physics and logic.

Please be specific.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 10:25:28 pm
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.
[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin’.[/size]

What is the basis of your belief?


Physics and logic.

Please be specific.

I just know I'm not going to watch you get baited by LuciferX.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:25:47 pm
Oh, we're doomed.  But that's no reason to turn into beasts.

Except for QG, but she was always a beast.

 :lulz: :lulz:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 30, 2020, 10:27:00 pm
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.
[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin’.[/size]

What is the basis of your belief?


Physics and logic.

Please be specific.

I just know I'm not going to watch you get baited by LuciferX.

If he's baiting me he had better be ready for what comes out of the water.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 10:27:27 pm
tmw your health care professionals have a thousand yard stare.

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on March 30, 2020, 10:30:51 pm
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.
[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin’.[/size]

What is the basis of your belief?


Physics and logic.

Please be specific.


If we take your statement to be correct, a resistance to desiccation means that it is difficult to aerosolize. Because of this resistance, it would not make sense for the pathogen to divert precious evolutionary resources to protect a base it already has covered, primarily because it would have never been given the opportunity to do so. There is still A probability of it having done so randomly but that is low.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on March 30, 2020, 10:50:48 pm
It is not about the coughing into someone's mouth or whatever at all. At that point you're essentially directly sharing a body fluid and medical staff taking the slightest precaution would be unlikely to be getting infected. Instead trained professionals in full ppe are still getting infected VERY commonly.
Not very commonly, as commonly as would be expected from a virus that can transmit on surfaces or by being coughed or sneezed on.
If it was airborn masks and gloves would not be sufficient, and infection would be near total in hospitals, which its not.
The evidence isnt there to support your more complex, unlikely scenario

The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of. The virus evolved a nearly perfect method of attachment to the receptors in a human and so it's super virulent. These two factors would barely be noticed if the virus were benign or like a cold, but it's not.

If it can remain active on a bare, nonporous surface for three days or more purely because it resists dessication logically that durability transfers to both aerosol and aqueous mediums. The corpses are infectious. Water that has recently been contaminated and not subsequently sanitized is almost certainly a vector nobody is considering. It absolutely can go aerosol under the right conditions. The conditions necessary for that are rare in a hospital by design and air pressure methods are used to keep such contamination in one room if it happens. Out in the real world such conditions and safeguards are not at all in play.

I'm not arguing because I want to be right here. In fact I'm done arguing at all. I will continue to present information and my analysis as I see something to be relevant. Continue to check me and offer counter evidence because I do need that, but I will continue to say uncomfortable things because this is a virus so dangerous that desire for comfort is now a liability, intellectual comfort itself is something nobody can afford at this point.
None of the evidence supports your theory, I'm looking at 20 healthcare workers infected to 1000 patients. They are using gloves and masks, "It absolutely can go aerosol under the right conditions", if possible they are the outliers, the unlikely cases, and not the way the virus is propagating.
If it is possible to transmit as airborn, that figure would instead be the majority of the front line health care workers, and not a handful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 30, 2020, 11:33:46 pm
Just the R0 rate says it's not aerosol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on March 31, 2020, 12:10:52 am
I stopped engaging with this because panic brain and an offensively large push of outright misinformation have made it just about impossible to change TWJs mind.

Normally this would be bad, but, you know what, fuck it. It’s the fucking plague, goddamnit. It’s not harmful misinfo for him. As long as he’s keeping what we are saying is misinfo contained to here, it harms nothing at all: he will not be a vector for this thing, he will spread advice that is Actually Pretty Good. If he IS spreading it, he’s just panic-mongering and honestly, fuck it, we don’t have enough people freaking out about how bad it really is. Maybe some absolute bullshit will get them to stop fucking autoDarwinating at the expense of the rest of us. It’s bad but I have to deal with pointing out to my real life people that their unexamined prejudice is showing and maybe they shouldn’t talk utter fucking nonsense like “it’s a virus so it’s immune to hand sanitizer” which is the fucking stupidest thing ever said in my presence by someone I respect.

I’m not saying that anyone else should follow my lead, just that my stepping back was a calculated move. He isn’t spreading racist or biowar bullshit, I have bigger fish to fry, it will take too much effort to change his mind and there is no point except to Be Right and allow him to do the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 31, 2020, 01:05:52 am
[The virus is durable and this is primarily because it resists dessication in an unheard of way compared to just about any virus I'm aware of.
[size=78%]I think this means that it does NOT aerosolize easily AND that it probably not equipped to survive very long in that state. Just sayin’.[/size]

What is the basis of your belief?


Physics and logic.

Please be specific.


If we take your statement to be correct, a resistance to desiccation means that it is difficult to aerosolize. Because of this resistance, it would not make sense for the pathogen to divert precious evolutionary resources to protect a base it already has covered, primarily because it would have never been given the opportunity to do so. There is still A probability of it having done so randomly but that is low.

The first sentence will require you to  explain to me how its ability to retain water makes it more difficult for a droplet of water to break up in an agitated medium. The rest is a weird supposition contingent on an assumption of the initial assertion, and a tacit acceptance of the fact that it can tied to a situationaly variable assertion of absolute low probability when such conditions as necessary to vibrating a droplet are in fact quite common and it is still the virus itself that is rare, and pretty much invisible to real statistical analysis due to insufficient testing being done and a long incubation period.

I will concede that the data currently does not support my concerns here, yet. Conditions will certainly change, especially if they do something silly and break social distancing and other protocols declaring it "over."

Altered I DID change my tune about the rather foolish engineering theory. I'm glad that you are willing to at least consider that the fact that I could be wrong in this case could cause people to take vital precautions as a worst case scenario. But I have reason to believe that the r0 will rise over time dramatically as more testing is done and more bodies pile up. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope to christ I'm wrong.

Next time please talk to me rather than about me like I'm not right here, but rather a subject to be spoken of.

Faust I acknowledge the truth of your statement and don't doubt your good faith. I merely believe that the data will change radically in time. Again I hope I'm wrong.

That said the matter is now closed as far as I am concerned pending more data, and there will be A LOT more data coming in very soon indeed. Even as it comes in I will not push this theory. If the data in fact conclusively excludes common aerosol some months from now I will accept it at face value and hope to be the first to report such.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on March 31, 2020, 02:06:09 am
We need a emoticon for "bait taken"
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 31, 2020, 04:21:41 am
Hmm.

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on March 31, 2020, 04:42:27 am
On an unrelated note, I can’t get this image out my head of EATRs consuming corpses piled up on the surface of the moon. It’s all brutally elegant Kubrick style with that waltz music in the background.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 31, 2020, 04:43:27 am
Hmm.

I bit down pretty hard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on March 31, 2020, 05:29:55 am
Just to be clear, TWJ, I was talking about you and not to you because I didn’t want to turn it into a challenge, just a statement.

“You just aren’t going to listen” comes across as a confrontation. Worse, as a shitty “come at me bro” confrontation, picking a fight for the sake of the fight to be had, because, well, you just aren’t going to listen, right? Saying it out loud, directly at the person it’s true of, serves no purpose but shittiness.

The entire point is that the damage being done by you being wrong is, at worst, limited to you being wrong in public. I’m not confronting you on it anymore because I have limited time and energy in a day and google searching citations because you are wrong in the most harmless way online... that is a bad use of it. I’m sure you appreciate not having to digest paper after article after graph that you won’t believe stacks up to your chosen authority, because that’s a bad use of your time and energy too.

I wanted to address the matter because I was doing a lot of the correcting-you stuff before, and then I just stopped. It could come across any number of ways (including “lalala not speaking to you,” which for the record is NOT the idea) and I wanted to shut all of that down before it started.

Thus, talking about you and not to you was the right move, from my admittedly horrible grasp of How To Human. Your reaction is a hell of a lot more mild than it would have otherwise been, from my experience saying things like “I am done with this discussion” to people in the past, so I might even use this in the future: it seems to work. It can come across as mildly shitty, but at least it’s not immediate hackles-up TIME TO FUCK YOU UP shit.

I can recover from mildly shitty. It’s very hard to recover from “you DARE say that to me? Peasant! Exiled! Banished!”
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on March 31, 2020, 09:03:33 am
In my experience "how to human" as I think you use the term is a situational improv art because humans are so diverse. In my case I prefer to be directly spoken to if someone is being critical of me because it otherwise seems to me like a very rude tactic speaking to a crowd about me negatively that reads lije an attempt to poison the well and also, as such, it provokes my sense of honor because only a punk would just sit there and let shit get talked about them with disdain, and I did definitely read a bit of distain, or malice. Knowing your particular methods of humaning might be gently called somewhat non standard and believing in your good faith of intent I asked you politely to stop. And so with your explanation I fully forgive any percieved intent in the slight, real or not. Moreover I thank you for being upright in your response to that stated request.

Just remember that I'm not in this to be right according to some preconceived outcome or to parrot some shit I heard elsewhere. I don't go many other places. I am, even at my most wrong, reacting obly to what I think is relevant data and my own interpretation of it. I have learned to rely on my own competency and it has many times saved my life and occasionally safeguarded others effectively as well. I need to steadily move away from my paradigm in that regard and towards mutuality, but it is maddening to try to do so while having to accept that most people have no reason to believe that competency anywhere nearly as hard as I and a few close, personal "IRL" friends who have witnessed me do and seemingly spontaneously know uncanny things. I'm not wrong a lot and I just have to get past my own nose on the subject and sometimes let the fact that a contradicting other may be also right, or even that on occasion I'm flat wrong.

Except LuciferX. He's either straight up disingenuous or.. Kinda like rainman without the counting. Or the likability. Or the benefit of being actually Dustin Hoffman giving an amazing performance. Or pants.

*looks to camera at the spag behind the tag*

I like your poetry though
LuciferX.
But when it comes to text
Of a rational kind
Your mind
Is... Unsuitable.
And I see
Among your
corruPT filez
Many executables.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on March 31, 2020, 05:06:19 pm
:aaa:


I has no pants... no pants!!!


 :lulz:
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on March 31, 2020, 07:02:25 pm
Hmm.


:lulz: I dig that one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on March 31, 2020, 09:14:39 pm
https://apnews.com/a25f04dd3484923e7fd1a59e3808d774

"US death toll eclipses China’s as reinforcements head to NYC"
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 01, 2020, 12:57:10 am
https://apnews.com/a25f04dd3484923e7fd1a59e3808d774

"US death toll eclipses China’s as reinforcements head to NYC"

Yeah and we did it faster than them counting from first known cases too iirc.

We're going to see continuous exponential expansion here purely because of flaws in our policies and culture as far as any effort to meaningful suppression are concerned. We are a powder keg already superficially ablaze and fuckers are pouring gas on it. It's only a matter of time, and not much of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 01, 2020, 06:25:52 pm
NYC deaths top 1000.

https://apnews.com/57ed90189a682fff96b25e7e1805facf
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on April 02, 2020, 06:06:51 pm
on a lighter note, this is the best conspiracy theory of the decade -that Governor Andrew Cuomo has pierced nipples.

https://twitter.com/MalpalCreation/status/1244819477981790210

His spokesman denies it, but come on
https://www.insider.com/andrew-cuomo-nipple-piercing-governor-2020-4

some reporter questioned his ex-girlfriend, and she was like "That's a ridiculous question, you shouldn't body shame people" -- but she didn't actually comment on the nipples.

(https://i.insider.com/5e84fb272d41c176f05defd9?width=800&format=jpeg&auto=webp)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUZ8tzAXYAEEib9?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: tyrannosaurus vex on April 02, 2020, 06:16:40 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html

seems that TWJ may not be paranoid
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on April 02, 2020, 08:17:43 pm
on a lighter note, this is the best conspiracy theory of the decade -that Governor Andrew Cuomo has pierced nipples.

https://twitter.com/MalpalCreation/status/1244819477981790210

His spokesman denies it, but come on
https://www.insider.com/andrew-cuomo-nipple-piercing-governor-2020-4

some reporter questioned his ex-girlfriend, and she was like "That's a ridiculous question, you shouldn't body shame people" -- but she didn't actually comment on the nipples.

(https://i.insider.com/5e84fb272d41c176f05defd9?width=800&format=jpeg&auto=webp)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUZ8tzAXYAEEib9?format=jpg&name=large)

....Are his nips low? Or is it just me?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 02, 2020, 08:51:40 pm
on a lighter note, this is the best conspiracy theory of the decade -that Governor Andrew Cuomo has pierced nipples.

https://twitter.com/MalpalCreation/status/1244819477981790210

His spokesman denies it, but come on
https://www.insider.com/andrew-cuomo-nipple-piercing-governor-2020-4

some reporter questioned his ex-girlfriend, and she was like "That's a ridiculous question, you shouldn't body shame people" -- but she didn't actually comment on the nipples.

(https://i.insider.com/5e84fb272d41c176f05defd9?width=800&format=jpeg&auto=webp)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUZ8tzAXYAEEib9?format=jpg&name=large)

....Are his nips low? Or is it just me?

He's 300 years old.  He's lucky he doesn't trip over the fucking things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 02, 2020, 10:32:58 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html

seems that TWJ may not be paranoid

I am DEFINITELY paranoid. I have understanding of aspects of society and a sense of greater reality that can quickly go from a question "Am I paranoid?" to a postmortem hindsight, "Nope, they weren't paranoid enough. RIP". What I am not is easily rattled, nor am I paranoid schizophrenic.

I AM currently through trauma and extraordinary distress experiencing a severe schizoid personality disorder like "fight club", but I am not under the delusion that this alt is a person separate from myself and having hallucinations of the objective reality of this other person, who also considers himself "Joseph" and claims to be the first to bear that name, and that I am an inheritor of that particular soul. I don't buy into that bullshit in the slightest. Even given reincarnation as a fact, I am this Joseph and no other. I'm a loving red-blooded Italian Irish American and son of Wisconsin.

I know that I have gone mad by rational definitions, and that treatment in the foreseeable future is unlikely, but I am coping well and not in conflict with myselves, so to speak. I can still think clearly and actually have begun to see backhanded advantages to my state of being. I am my own sounding board while thinking and He seems to be able to percieve the environment better than I can. I can effectively watch my own back, for example. I suspect that this alt has been with me for quite some time in my subconscious and has now become manifest all the time. He can remind me about things I had forgotten and it explains some of the most uncanny moments in my life. I'm crazy, but I'm making do quite well given the circumstances.

I wanted to be wrong about the aerosol thing. I take no joy here, but rather taste bitterness worse than any oranges.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on April 02, 2020, 11:17:27 pm
Just saying: this forum has had more than a couple plural folks around. So, yknow, in case the split becomes permanent you won’t be far out of place — I can even give some tips to making your headspace healthy for both of you if that does happen. I have 5 people currently, though the number changes from time to time.

Dulug/Ada/??? (girl has worse name issues than I do) says hi, she recalls starting off something like what you describe here, just much younger and more trauma-linked. I’ve also had more than a few temporary additions from high stress, so that other side might well just go away too.

Most important things to remember: whatever happens, having someone else in your head is not always bad, and can in fact get you through some horrible shit without too much permanent damage. They’re also just as human as you are and should be treated as such. Keeping that all in mind makes any possible outcome way better (no self-traumatizing if temporary and no pissing off your permanent internal roommate otherwise).



ETA: Also, PM me if you want more info, but I wouldn’t be too hard on the claims the other persona is making either. I’ve got weirder stories and I’m pretty sure I figured out the basic reasons for that sort of thing. (It ain’t magicks, either.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 02, 2020, 11:46:44 pm
I'm thinking
'Bout using
Royal We,
And He finds
That very
Amusing.
Then He laughs
With Me.

I'll probably hit you in PM soonish altered.
Now let's get this thread back on track.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 04, 2020, 09:35:42 pm
we have topped one million cases. it's doubling every week or so conservatively. this is a major tipping point adding millions and millions by the end of April in very fast order.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 06, 2020, 12:29:15 am
so...
Aerosol
Contact
probably water
and now zoonotic

ever see 12 Monkeys?

https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/4/5/21208975/bronx-zoo-tiger-coronavirus-positive-test?fbclid=IwAR03QvnEu617NdfZOFpl-aPW4jxgCf1DxMeVoxNZhGRkPTpZgpMc4j8TbGQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on April 06, 2020, 01:15:07 am
12 Monkeys is a really bad source of pandemic info.

That said, zoonotic transmission is a multiplier. I’ve read enough about the science of virology to know this is Alarm Bells time.

When we see human-animal-human transmission, which is what’s actually dangerous (this spread to a tiger is not remotely concerning taken by itself) it will be too late to ring the alarm. People need to be worrying about it immediately.

Obviously, like, that means people who have the knowledge and resources to do anything. Everyone else should just avoid petting strange animals, and keep their pets inside as much as reasonably possible.

Which was already a good idea, you know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 06, 2020, 01:21:32 am
yeah I'm not citing 12 monkeys as some sort of gospel, far from it, but animal resivoirs of the virus both increase likely mutation and make eradication all the less likely. It's definitely a case worthy of note. i heard early reports when I first started digging into China's response that they ordered pets euthanized, but had no confirmation of zoonotic transmission. Now i do, sadly.
 :|
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on April 06, 2020, 08:25:25 am
so...
Aerosol
Contact
probably water
and now zoonotic

Aerosol is still not substantiated, in fact its contrary to what the WHO is saying. Also the virus is a fatty structure meaning it is killed by basic sanitisation like soap which means transmission through water means it cannot survive the sanitation process. And transmission to pets such as housecats has been shown but no reverse mechanism and is unlikely to be possible.
So it is still at the exact same level it was: contact with someone who is exposed and coughing or touching a surface they did and then your face.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 06, 2020, 12:11:06 pm
so...
Aerosol
Contact
probably water
and now zoonotic

Aerosol is still not substantiated, in fact its contrary to what the WHO is saying. Also the virus is a fatty structure meaning it is killed by basic sanitisation like soap which means transmission through water means it cannot survive the sanitation process. And transmission to pets such as housecats has been shown but no reverse mechanism and is unlikely to be possible.
So it is still at the exact same level it was: contact with someone who is exposed and coughing or touching a surface they did and then your face.

yeah, water transmission is really only a problem if the infrastructure breaks down and folks can't necessarily get clean water or are fool enough to drink or bathe in untreated water. I withdraw the speculation for the time being until I see somthing scholarly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on April 06, 2020, 12:19:11 pm
so...
Aerosol
Contact
probably water
and now zoonotic

Aerosol is still not substantiated, in fact its contrary to what the WHO is saying. Also the virus is a fatty structure meaning it is killed by basic sanitisation like soap which means transmission through water means it cannot survive the sanitation process. And transmission to pets such as housecats has been shown but no reverse mechanism and is unlikely to be possible.
So it is still at the exact same level it was: contact with someone who is exposed and coughing or touching a surface they did and then your face.

yeah, water transmission is really only a problem if the infrastructure breaks down and folks can't necessarily get clean water or are fool enough to drink or bathe in untreated water. I withdraw the speculation for the time being until I see somthing scholarly.
Yeah so at the risk of setting you on a darker path, at work one of the things we control is water treatment. Wastewater goes through several stages: heating, filtration, sediment, and each stage adds different cleaning agents to it.
On the potable water side there is a similar process, there are no known viri that can survive that process.
The big ones to watch out for with drinking water are:
Someone putting too much of the cleaning chemicals in (happens more than people want to know)
Agricultural or other run off getting into the system after cleaning (lot of boil notices around slurry season)
Lead (its expensive to replace and only happens when its detected, no one is out there looking for corroded lead to replace)
and cryptosporidium, a parasite, not a virus that can survive the cleaning process and can make people quite sick. That last one is the one where the water plants need to be fully cleaned down and the lines flushed end to end.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 06, 2020, 12:31:09 pm
so...
Aerosol
Contact
probably water
and now zoonotic

Aerosol is still not substantiated, in fact its contrary to what the WHO is saying. Also the virus is a fatty structure meaning it is killed by basic sanitisation like soap which means transmission through water means it cannot survive the sanitation process. And transmission to pets such as housecats has been shown but no reverse mechanism and is unlikely to be possible.
So it is still at the exact same level it was: contact with someone who is exposed and coughing or touching a surface they did and then your face.

yeah, water transmission is really only a problem if the infrastructure breaks down and folks can't necessarily get clean water or are fool enough to drink or bathe in untreated water. I withdraw the speculation for the time being until I see somthing scholarly.
Yeah so at the risk of setting you on a darker path, at work one of the things we control is water treatment. Wastewater goes through several stages: heating, filtration, sediment, and each stage adds different cleaning agents to it.
On the potable water side there is a similar process, there are no known viri that can survive that process.
The big ones to watch out for with drinking water are:
Someone putting too much of the cleaning chemicals in (happens more than people want to know)
Agricultural or other run off getting into the system after cleaning (lot of boil notices around slurry season)
Lead (its expensive to replace and only happens when its detected, no one is out there looking for corroded lead to replace)
and cryptosporidium, a parasite, not a virus that can survive the cleaning process and can make people quite sick. That last one is the one where the water plants need to be fully cleaned down and the lines flushed end to end.

Yeah we had a cryptosporidium outbreak in my hometown back when I was a kid and a LOT of folks got sick. We're right on lake Michigan and have one of the best water treatment facilities, designed by my grandfather in part, in the country. It still was a ravager. Good clean water may be worth it's weight in gold if the shit REALLY gets bad... Not really letting myself think that far ahead, but I naturally do it anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on April 06, 2020, 12:35:52 pm
It wont get bad. Supply lines have faced zero disruption and if it is reassuring for the Utilities.
Power plant staff here have all been pulled: they have to wait for two weeks before they start their shift in a locked down building to ensure staff there dont get sick, I imagine it is the same for other utilities.
The plant staff are loving it, they are getting 24/7 overtime pay to sit around drinking coffee and doing bits of paperwork / watch tv
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 06, 2020, 04:54:47 pm
so...
Aerosol
Contact
probably water
and now zoonotic

Aerosol is still not substantiated, in fact its contrary to what the WHO is saying. Also the virus is a fatty structure meaning it is killed by basic sanitisation like soap which means transmission through water means it cannot survive the sanitation process. And transmission to pets such as housecats has been shown but no reverse mechanism and is unlikely to be possible.
So it is still at the exact same level it was: contact with someone who is exposed and coughing or touching a surface they did and then your face.

yeah, water transmission is really only a problem if the infrastructure breaks down and folks can't necessarily get clean water or are fool enough to drink or bathe in untreated water. I withdraw the speculation for the time being until I see somthing scholarly.
Yeah so at the risk of setting you on a darker path, at work one of the things we control is water treatment. Wastewater goes through several stages: heating, filtration, sediment, and each stage adds different cleaning agents to it.
On the potable water side there is a similar process, there are no known viri that can survive that process.
The big ones to watch out for with drinking water are:
Someone putting too much of the cleaning chemicals in (happens more than people want to know)
Agricultural or other run off getting into the system after cleaning (lot of boil notices around slurry season)
Lead (its expensive to replace and only happens when its detected, no one is out there looking for corroded lead to replace)
and cryptosporidium, a parasite, not a virus that can survive the cleaning process and can make people quite sick. That last one is the one where the water plants need to be fully cleaned down and the lines flushed end to end.

I ran water for 8 years (potable, chiller, RO, sanitation), and you're correct.  But crypto can be killed with chlorine dioxide in closed systems, and chlorine in open air systems.

And the best solution for lead is to just scale up the pipes.  Add chlorates, mag, and soda ash until you have 4 mm scale on the pipe.

A clean pipe will kill you.  That horrible white stuff is your friend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 06, 2020, 05:16:59 pm
They're not doing it just yet, but New York is getting ready for a much larger body count and prepping for temporary burial in parks.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/06/nyc-to-begin-temporarily-burying-coronavirus-victims-in-local-parks/?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPFacebook&sr_share=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2Dnr0pqkuXtQeCuXW1-lCfGzvDwXO3p1fwPgcLPh1MrcyK9-1TIPsaDdw

I'm pretty sure that the virus is durable enough that the corpses will remain infectious for quite a while. It's very dangerous hazmat in the short term at least, moreso if preserved in a cool morgue-trailer. burial might be a better option, but IDK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on April 06, 2020, 08:53:21 pm
so...
Aerosol
Contact
probably water
and now zoonotic

Aerosol is still not substantiated, in fact its contrary to what the WHO is saying. Also the virus is a fatty structure meaning it is killed by basic sanitisation like soap which means transmission through water means it cannot survive the sanitation process. And transmission to pets such as housecats has been shown but no reverse mechanism and is unlikely to be possible.
So it is still at the exact same level it was: contact with someone who is exposed and coughing or touching a surface they did and then your face.

yeah, water transmission is really only a problem if the infrastructure breaks down and folks can't necessarily get clean water or are fool enough to drink or bathe in untreated water. I withdraw the speculation for the time being until I see somthing scholarly.
Yeah so at the risk of setting you on a darker path, at work one of the things we control is water treatment. Wastewater goes through several stages: heating, filtration, sediment, and each stage adds different cleaning agents to it.
On the potable water side there is a similar process, there are no known viri that can survive that process.
The big ones to watch out for with drinking water are:
Someone putting too much of the cleaning chemicals in (happens more than people want to know)
Agricultural or other run off getting into the system after cleaning (lot of boil notices around slurry season)
Lead (its expensive to replace and only happens when its detected, no one is out there looking for corroded lead to replace)
and cryptosporidium, a parasite, not a virus that can survive the cleaning process and can make people quite sick. That last one is the one where the water plants need to be fully cleaned down and the lines flushed end to end.

I ran water for 8 years (potable, chiller, RO, sanitation), and you're correct.  But crypto can be killed with chlorine dioxide in closed systems, and chlorine in open air systems.

And the best solution for lead is to just scale up the pipes.  Add chlorates, mag, and soda ash until you have 4 mm scale on the pipe.

A clean pipe will kill you.  That horrible white stuff is your friend.
hehe that's awesome, I would have never though of that, calcium buildup just enough to mask any of the unhealthy stuff, and good for the bones
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 07, 2020, 12:17:55 am
South Korea is still seeing small surges that could be signals of oncoming bigger surges. They're better at riding the bull than most by the numbers, yet it is still a bull bucking around.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/south-korea-s-return-normal-interrupted-uptick-coronavirus-cases-n1176021?fbclid=IwAR1DNE8bOz8gSVQuS6lEFakIY5eQVa3c7N66GGlUzhzPn0GBnUyqYACdLvo
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: tyrannosaurus vex on April 07, 2020, 01:57:02 am
I am dreading the peak of infections in NYC and across the country this week and next week because this country is full of Americans, who are dumb. They will see the peak and decide, despite the warnings from experts, that the danger has passed, and they will go back to business as usual and set off an explosion in contagion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 07, 2020, 02:09:49 am
I hate to be a debbie downer, but the world, and the US and UK in particular, is a very long way from the peak of this.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 07, 2020, 02:23:06 am
I am dreading the peak of infections in NYC and across the country this week and next week because this country is full of Americans, who are dumb. thet will see the peak and decide, despite the warnings from experts, that the danger has passed, and they will go back to business as 8dual and set off an explosion in contagion.

We've succeeded ourselves to death, I think.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 07, 2020, 02:49:18 am
I am dreading the peak of infections in NYC and across the country this week and next week because this country is full of Americans, who are dumb. thet will see the peak and decide, despite the warnings from experts, that the danger has passed, and they will go back to business as 8dual and set off an explosion in contagion.

We've succeeded ourselves to death, I think.

You know, the fall of Athens started witha plague and the death of Pericles IIRC. Came in on a shipment of grain from their far reaching trade ports. Too much success can be fatal indeed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 07, 2020, 03:27:14 pm
Quote

Trump has touted the drug as a potential "game changer" on an almost-daily basis. When Fauci was asked about the drug at the White House briefing Sunday, Trump stepped in and said, "I've answered that question — maybe 15 times."

"You don't have to answer," he told Fauci.

"There's signs it works on this — very strong signs," Trump said. "I've seen things that I sort of like. What do I know? I'm not a doctor. I'm not a doctor, but I have common sense."

Quote

Fauci sounded a similar note of caution on the drug in an interview with CBS on Sunday, saying there'd been some reports of the drug's helping — and other reports of it's having zero effect.

Asked to comment on Fauci's statement, Navarro told CNN, "I'll let him speak for himself," but "I have two words for you — second opinion."

Navarro, an economist, was then asked for his qualifications to give medical opinions.

"Doctors disagree about things all the time. My qualifications in terms of looking at the science is that I'm a social scientist. I have a Ph.D. And I understand how to read statistical studies, whether it's in medicine, the law, economics or whatever," Navarro said.

Asked whether he wanted a doctor making trade deals, Navarro said, "touché," before accusing anchor John Berman of engaging in a "false narrative."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/top-trump-aid-says-faucis-173524534.html


Sooo... about Fauci being able to stick to the science.. Not so much, sadly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on April 07, 2020, 03:31:21 pm
which part of that strikes you as Dr. Fauci not sticking to science?

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 07, 2020, 03:47:21 pm
which part of that strikes you as Dr. Fauci not sticking to science?

O Fauci does. He's a straight shooter, but having his message undermined and contradicted is effectively just as bad as him not being a scientist at all in the sense that he has to be believed for the truth to matter. I may have misspoken there a bit. I did not mean he wasn't a scientist, rather that he is not being allowed to function as one meaningfully.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 07, 2020, 03:57:57 pm
New York Transit is nearly dead in the water and only transporting medical personnel and other essential folks.

"The MTA now has 20 times the confirmed coronavirus cases it had two weeks ago, with 5,600 employees in self-quarantine and 33 deaths"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mta-now-20-times-confirmed-213743375.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on April 07, 2020, 04:15:52 pm
New York Transit is nearly dead in the water and only transporting medical personnel and other essential folks.

"The MTA now has 20 times the confirmed coronavirus cases it had two weeks ago, with 5,600 employees in self-quarantine and 33 deaths"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mta-now-20-times-confirmed-213743375.html

Yeah, I'm getting nervous about my brother. He's essential personnel, since he's a butcher, and has to use the subway to commute. He does say on the bright side, the cars are so fucking spotless and empty it's like living in bizarroworld.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 07, 2020, 04:22:24 pm
New York Transit is nearly dead in the water and only transporting medical personnel and other essential folks.

"The MTA now has 20 times the confirmed coronavirus cases it had two weeks ago, with 5,600 employees in self-quarantine and 33 deaths"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mta-now-20-times-confirmed-213743375.html

Yeah, I'm getting nervous about my brother. He's essential personnel, since he's a butcher, and has to use the subway to commute. He does say on the bright side, the cars are so fucking spotless and empty it's like living in bizarroworld.

I wish your brother the best. I've never been on a subway, but they always look cramped and filthy in the movies, unless creepy and empty is the vibe they're going for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 07, 2020, 05:03:57 pm
Quote
Capt. Brett Crozier of the USS Theodore Roosevelt may have been worried that Rear Adm. Stuart Baker, his immediate boss and the commander of the carrier strike group, would not have allowed him to send the warning letter to Navy leaders, according to the top Navy official who fired him as told to a Washington Post columnist.

Baker reportedly confirmed to Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly that Crozier's instincts were correct: "He was right. I wouldn't."


Quote

Modly claimed that he eventually fired Crozier because he "didn't want to get into a decision where the president would feel that he had to intervene."

Quote
"The letter was sent over non-secure, unclassified email even though that ship possesses some of the most sophisticated communications and encryption equipment in the fleet," Modly said Thursday.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fired-us-navy-captain-reportedly-012113158.html

I spent a fair bit of time dicking around with Google trying to get an actual transcription of the letter in text or PDF... nada. It just refused to do anything but top load referential articles and I don't have time to dig down several hundred thousand returns for a blind link or something. If anyone can find it I would very much like to read it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 07, 2020, 05:24:16 pm
Quote
In one of these videos, Maradiaga is seen filming herself at what she says is a Walmart and issues a strange threat to the camera, KXAS, a local news station in Dallas-Fort Worth, reported.

“I’m here at Walmart about to infest every (expletive), because if I’m going down, all you (expletive) are going down,” she said, per the station.

In another video seen by KXAS, the woman appears to be sitting in a car at a coronavirus drive-through testing site. A nurse can be heard telling the person driving the car to go home and wait for the test results.

Maradiaga also filmed herself later that day repeatedly coughing into the camera and saying, per KXAS: “If you want to get the coronavirus and (expletive) die, call me.”

The Carrollton Texas Police Department noted on Twitter that they are unsure if Maradiaga has COVID-19, and “have no confirmation Maradiaga is actually a threat to public health.” But they are taking the teen’s actions on social media “very seriously.”

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/police-woman-covid-19-positive-willfully-spreading-it-snapchat-lorraine-maradiaga-190640294.html

Shit like this... gonna happen more and more, methinks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: LMNO on April 07, 2020, 05:25:19 pm
Quote
Capt. Brett Crozier of the USS Theodore Roosevelt may have been worried that Rear Adm. Stuart Baker, his immediate boss and the commander of the carrier strike group, would not have allowed him to send the warning letter to Navy leaders, according to the top Navy official who fired him as told to a Washington Post columnist.

Baker reportedly confirmed to Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly that Crozier's instincts were correct: "He was right. I wouldn't."


Quote

Modly claimed that he eventually fired Crozier because he "didn't want to get into a decision where the president would feel that he had to intervene."

Quote
"The letter was sent over non-secure, unclassified email even though that ship possesses some of the most sophisticated communications and encryption equipment in the fleet," Modly said Thursday.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fired-us-navy-captain-reportedly-012113158.html

I spent a fair bit of time dicking around with Google trying to get an actual transcription of the letter in text or PDF... nada. It just refused to do anything but top load referential articles and I don't have time to dig down several hundred thousand returns for a blind link or something. If anyone can find it I would very much like to read it.

Best I could find.  It was leaked to the press, not the public.  https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Exclusive-Captain-of-aircraft-carrier-with-15167883.php?utm_source=Daily%20on%20Defense%20040220_04/02/2020&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=WEX_Daily%20on%20Defense&rid=76109
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 07, 2020, 05:46:26 pm
Quote
Capt. Brett Crozier of the USS Theodore Roosevelt may have been worried that Rear Adm. Stuart Baker, his immediate boss and the commander of the carrier strike group, would not have allowed him to send the warning letter to Navy leaders, according to the top Navy official who fired him as told to a Washington Post columnist.

Baker reportedly confirmed to Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly that Crozier's instincts were correct: "He was right. I wouldn't."


Quote

Modly claimed that he eventually fired Crozier because he "didn't want to get into a decision where the president would feel that he had to intervene."

Quote
"The letter was sent over non-secure, unclassified email even though that ship possesses some of the most sophisticated communications and encryption equipment in the fleet," Modly said Thursday.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fired-us-navy-captain-reportedly-012113158.html

I spent a fair bit of time dicking around with Google trying to get an actual transcription of the letter in text or PDF... nada. It just refused to do anything but top load referential articles and I don't have time to dig down several hundred thousand returns for a blind link or something. If anyone can find it I would very much like to read it.

Best I could find.  It was leaked to the press, not the public.  https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Exclusive-Captain-of-aircraft-carrier-with-15167883.php?utm_source=Daily%20on%20Defense%20040220_04/02/2020&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=WEX_Daily%20on%20Defense&rid=76109

Thanks! I found that too, but the paywall was a deal breaker. It's fucking obnoxious looking for specific info in this shitstorm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 08, 2020, 03:07:58 am
i was sent this by a very dear friend who is among the most intelligent folks I know. He has a PHD in music theory and is a full Professor. He sent it to me saying it seemed weird to him that it was scrubbed from Medium hours after posting and that I should see it, tacitly coming close as fuck to implying a coverup. It's DREK. It's pure bullshit sophistry and while it does, like all decent sophistry, use some factual statements It's prett much entirely horseshit medically and clearly more about political bias and conning folks into taking drugs that don't actually do shit for viral infections. I submit it as an example of it's kind only.

https://archive.is/ONUmi

It's not even GOOD sophistry... good sophistry is entirely truthful, but but warps perspective. This is just straight up bullshit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: LMNO on April 08, 2020, 01:18:50 pm
Quote
He has a PHD in music theory and is a full Professor.


I found the problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 08, 2020, 01:36:07 pm
Quote
He has a PHD in music theory and is a full Professor.


I found the problem.

Eh?  :?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on April 08, 2020, 01:48:51 pm
It probably got scrubbed precisely because it's bullshit. Even Youtube is finally starting to get its act together on coronavirus and 5G conspiracy theories.

And I think LMNO is implying that your friend isn't a medical doctor, and that is part of the problem. In addition to that, professors acting outside of their area of expertise can quickly overestimate their proficiency in understanding that area (see: Neil deGrasse Tyson on virtually every topic other than astrophysics).
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 08, 2020, 01:54:55 pm
It probably got scrubbed precisely because it's bullshit. Even Youtube is finally starting to get its act together on coronavirus and 5G conspiracy theories.

And I think LMNO is implying that your friend isn't a medical doctor, and that is part of the problem. In addition to that, professors acting outside of their area of expertise can quickly overestimate their proficiency in understanding that area (see: Neil deGrasse Tyson on virtually every topic other than astrophysics).

I'm SURE it was scrubbed as BS and rightly so. I see what you mean on the expertise thing, moreover he has a LOT of ground in Christian programing in him. His character and integrity are excellent, but he's a bit dogmatic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: LMNO on April 08, 2020, 01:58:52 pm
What Cain said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on April 08, 2020, 02:01:47 pm
Also music theory. It's not even really a thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 08, 2020, 02:04:13 pm
 :lulz: Well... apparently it pays the bills.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on April 08, 2020, 02:36:13 pm
right, like I once wrote a 1000 page dissertation about the history of dog vomit,
which (*looks down over his glasses*) is in the library of congress, by the way,
here's my opinion about vaccines

 :scientist:

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 08, 2020, 02:52:04 pm
right, like I once wrote a 1000 page dissertation about the history of dog vomit,
which (*looks down over his glasses*) is in the library of congress, by the way,
here's my opinion about vaccines

 :scientist:

 :lulz: retroviral vaccines are bleeding edge experimental tech and we're hoping for an effective, safe one in a year...

 :science:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on April 08, 2020, 03:40:51 pm
i was sent this by a very dear friend who is among the most intelligent folks I know.
Quote
... but he's a bit dogmatic...

How can someone be intelligent and dogmatic?

Intelligence is adaptability.  Dogma is inflexibility.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 08, 2020, 04:26:37 pm
i was sent this by a very dear friend who is among the most intelligent folks I know.
Quote
... but he's a bit dogmatic...

How can someone be intelligent and dogmatic?

Intelligence is adaptability.  Dogma is inflexibility.

You might say that rather he has great intellectual capacity, but a head full of some unfortunate memes.

BTW I thought about what to short the dollar against and I'm thinking the Swiss franc. I have not done the dilligence nor looked at the current numbers, but the swissie is a commonly held reserve currency that has direct ties to the value of the Euro and is often seen as similar to gold as a stable investment in emergency situations. They also are unlikeley to need to hyper inflate to shore up their economy because they hold SO MUCH raw capital in their banking systems. you might start there as a point of further research.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 08, 2020, 08:22:46 pm
i was sent this by a very dear friend who is among the most intelligent folks I know.
Quote
... but he's a bit dogmatic...

How can someone be intelligent and dogmatic?

Intelligence is adaptability.  Dogma is inflexibility.

He collects bad signal in a flexible, dynamic way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 08, 2020, 08:33:25 pm
i was sent this by a very dear friend who is among the most intelligent folks I know.
Quote
... but he's a bit dogmatic...

How can someone be intelligent and dogmatic?

Intelligence is adaptability.  Dogma is inflexibility.

He collects bad signal in a flexible, dynamic way.

Actually... that's pretty accurate. I have known him since early childhood and have ever been a counterpoint to that tendency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 09, 2020, 01:27:35 pm
I posted this to the Trump thread too, but think it should also be here. I didn't start research in earnest until the end of February. They had projections not unlike my own well before that. Trump tacitly claims negligence, probably just a straight up lie. Both are federal crimes, one is treason.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-adviser-warned-of-millions-of-coronavirus-deaths-back-in-january-trump-says-he-only-saw-the-memo-this-week-005304311.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on April 09, 2020, 11:51:10 pm
The Canadian Public Health Agency has released a report, including some modelling.  The best case scenario is that the epidemic here continues until mid-late summer.

https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/documents/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/using-data-modelling-inform-eng.pdf
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 10, 2020, 05:15:56 pm
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-patient-believes-life-saved-030301908.html

This video was very difficult to watch because it sent my nearly seraphic shit sniffer into overdrive. The combination of an anti-paracitic and an antibiotic will have precisely ZERO effect upon viral infection and is unlikely to even slightly treat symptoms. To the contrary the side effects of hydroxychloroquine (https://www.mayoclinic.org/drugs-supplements/hydroxychloroquine-oral-route/side-effects/drg-20064216) taken even in proper dosage (https://www.drugs.com/dosage/hydroxychloroquine.html) can GREATLY exacerbate Covid symptoms, particularly if you get the nasty diarrhea/nausea combo that prevents you from drinking water while massively and swiftly dehydrating you.

This asshat is claiming a belief he admits is based on speculation about the timing of the dose and his break from symptoms. The "15 pills" he took was a negligible dose therapeutically. This was all carefully scripted to avoid statements of "fact" that would be rather actionable. I have occasionally been razzed about using Yahoo for sourcing info, but I do it in part because it often brings up articles from outright liars that I would like to hear for the sake of knowing what shit is currently popping up into a mainstream sector of the internet. They're going to make A LOT of money by seriously harming already sick people by selling a rather venomous snake oil indeed, and this vid was basically an instructive, deviously suggestive infomercial for it.

now... excuse me for a sec... :vom:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on April 11, 2020, 12:58:01 pm
A friend of mine (who is a doctor and works at a hospital) reccommended following a pathologist who debunks popular media claims about covid. I'll share my friend's endorsement, then the latest article from the person:

One of the most frustrating things about knowledge sharing in the time of coronavirus is how easy it is to spread info that is premised in flawed conceptions of science, or that is blatantly false. Doctors and research scientists are not always the most compelling storytellers so better writers with shoddy grasps of medicine step in to fill the void and end up seeding misinformation. Luckily, here is an account of an actual doctor (a pathologist with training in viral epidemiology) who is a smart and savvy writer and puts out daily posts debunking popular media claims about covid, and gives updates on how to interpret projections and testing data. Follow her! You might even start to feel like it’s ok to breathe (behind a mask. And wash your hands.)

https://www.facebook.com/jenniferkastenmd/posts/120574959595451




1) Critiquing the "Belgian-Dutch Study: Why in times of COVID-19 you should not walk/run/bike close to each other" (what's the infectious dose for COVID anyway); 2) How that idea of infectious dose dictates how we can interact with the world/food/people/mail/things other people have touched.

There was an ominous-sounding blog post stating that any form of outdoor exercise where you pass within 30 feet of another person will lead to transmission of COVID-19. It was written by Jurgen Thoelen, a Belgian expat in Russia who works in cloud computing, and who also founded a sports training agency. He got the information from an interview given to a Brussels newspaper by Bert Blocken, an engineering researcher interested in wind tunnels and the aerodynamics of sports (involving concepts like athletes drafting off each other).

Bert Blocken, wind tunnel sports guy, decided to get into experimental virology and then decided his conclusions were too important to submit for publication or any form of peer review, so immediately posted them on twitter and contacted a newspaper for an interview. [Since the Medium piece, he has submitted a pre-print]. He did not consult a virologist, clinical physician, or epidemiologist in his research. Since we're all used to only having vetted, peer-reviewed research put out in the public square like this, readers- including Thoelen- took it as scientific fact.

Even though Thoelen didn't have it available to him, let's look at the Blocken pre-print (non-peer-reviewed) paper. He made a wind tunnel and installed some spray nozzles, with the holes in the nozzles set to sizes which somewhat line up with human droplet and droplet nuclei particles. He set different temperatures, and different levels of humidity, and different windspeeds. He decided that whether or not the particles evaporated was a good proxy for whether or not they're infectious. And he simulated runners and cyclists side-by-side / behind each other /diagonally, and calculated how many non-evaporated droplets hit them. He concluded if ANY droplets hit the trailing athlete, they'd get infected; and came up with the 30-feet rule, implying all of the guidance on social distancing was laughably ineffective.

Several immediate problems are obvious:
- Humans aren't spray nozzles generating a continuous mist of droplets under steady pressure
- Droplets are infectious if they contain live virus, and denaturation occurs prior to complete evaporation. A LOT OF PARTICLES ARE DEFECTIVE IN HUMAN RESPIRATORY VIRUSES- the particles "fail to infect" (this in virology is called the particle-to-PFU ratio, and the coronaviruses make a bunch of useless ones).
- No attempt to use SARS-CoV-2-specific infectious particle size was made
- Unless you're heading straight into a gale, particles from a cough/sneeze spread out in front of you and disperse laterally
- MOST IMPORTANTLY BY FAR: there was no attempt made to simulate an appropriate infectious dose. How many virions do we need to inhale in order to reliably become infected? How much virus does an infected person generate, anyway?

The answer is: we don't exactly know (unless you want to volunteer for a controlled experiment snorting different concentrations of virus up your nose and waiting to see when you become infected, we might have to rely on mice). But we DO know, definitely, it's more than 1, AND:
-We know asymptomatic people have very high concentrations of virus in their respiratory tree and nasopharynx, on the order of 700 million viruses per 1000 cells-- BUT they aren't successful at getting all that virus out in the world.
- At 8 inches away infected people generate only about 6000 copies/ mL (from that facemask study yesterday).
- The infectious dose of the MERS coronavirus is between 1000-10,000 virions, to produce symptoms. Estimates are SARS-CoV-2 will be in the high 100s/low1000s.

SO: At 8 inches, you'll get 2-3x the infectious dose, with a dispersion effect showing very rapid trail off-after that. 6 feet = 72 inches = 9 separate iterations of "trail-off," taking our 8 inches-from-the-face Petri dish as a standard unit. That's a lot.

We also know most everyone out exercising has an innate immune system, too. So run like the wind, everyone, Inhale some virus, you can still beat it.

And much, much, much more importantly- we know there is a HUGE difference between "viral RNA detected" on a surface and at a distance, and actual live infectious virus. Bringing us to:

2) It's really *almost* impossible to get COVID from a cereal box or a piece of mail.

Several good, high-quality, peer-reviewed studies have demonstrated that detectable viral RNA is found on various inert surfaces days after virus was first placed there. That cruise ship showed viral RNA weeks after the last people disembarked. That's naturally sparked worries about eating virus (on food), and handling objects which might have been handled by infected people.

Firstly- viruses denature (degrade/fall apart) rapidly in the environment. They need cells to "live" (replicate) and without cells, they're at the mercy of entropy. Their protein coat dissolves and denatures, and eventually, their core RNA is left lying around, like bleached bones in the sun. Although the world is awash with enzymes which digest RNA some sequences will survive to be picked up by an enterprising researcher with PCR. And without that spike protein to dock with a living human cell (via that ACE-2 receptor), SARS-CoV-2 RNA can't do anything. It can't infect a cell and begin replicating. So when experiments based on PCR (which amplifies just the RNA) say they detect viral RNA, they are not necessarily detecting infectious virus. Over very long periods of time- the cruise ship- they almost certainly are not.

And when they say "any infectious virus"-- they mean ANY. Remember the discussion about infectious dose above? On cardboard, in the NEJM paper where they computer-simulated infectious virus by spraying aerosols on surface and modeling the decay (NOT confirmed by PCR), the virus fell below the infectious dose within a couple of hours- even assuming it was 100% viable in each and every particle, which it totally isn't.

Secondly, it's a respiratory virus. It can only dock with certain cells in your body. When you eat live, infectious virus, the enzymes in your saliva start to work- and then, within a few seconds, the virus hits your stomach where the acid environment causes it to fall apart. Although virus has been isolated from stool, good-quality data shows that it was not infective virus, it was mostly denatured and digested virus.

So, the cereal box. Let's say someone spray-sneezes all over your cereal box. The virus has a half-life of 70 minutes, on cardboard, so you'd have to pick it up right away and rush home with it. A small amount of infectious virus is transferred to your hands when you pull it off the shelf (you need a few hundred/thousand to successfully end up in some part of your body with the correct receptors , remember?). The virus cannot burrow into your skin- so, on your hands some will denature further, just hanging out; some will fall off whenever you touch anything else. By the time you accidentally touch your face or wipe your nose, you don't have much left. And then- it's just on your face, close to a mucus membrane, maybe some gets in? Unless you take a deep, fragrant, admiring sniff of your hands, or the cereal box... it's tough.

Bottom line: washing your hands and not touching your face is good. Keep doing that. And if you like bleaching and wearing gloves for the sense of absolute harm reduction and a feeling that you're controlling at least something in this crazy world, by all means continue to do so But- if you have to choose between a mask and the bleach/gloves routine: PLEASE CHOOSE THE MASK. THE MASK IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE LIKELY TO EFFECTIVELY PREVENT TRANSMISSION.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 11, 2020, 04:46:14 pm
That was VERY helpful. Thanks Cram! It somewhat put my mind at ease on the virus' quite high, but not abnormal, resistance to desiccation and ability to go airborne for lengthy amounts of time at high susceptibility. I had been disclosed by a microbiologist working directly on the coronavirus research the number 17 days for how long they had detected the virus in those ships' interiors. This was in a secret Zoom meeting to speak privately with several experts that I happened to be invited to by its coordinator.

I've decided to follow this and set it to topload any new stuff into my feed. Will almost certainly share and encourage others to do so as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 11, 2020, 05:06:44 pm
a potentially useful data compiling map.

https://covid19.topos.com/
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 11, 2020, 06:03:34 pm
I wear a bandana around my face.  It's main purpose is to keep me from touching my face, and also to remind people to keep their distance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 11, 2020, 06:57:59 pm
I wear a bandana around my face.  It's main purpose is to keep me from touching my face, and also to remind people to keep their distance.

Also helps capture breath droplets if you're a carrier. everyone needs to be masking up in public. I made these memes for my ex gf by request because as a nurse in rural Wisconsin she HATES seeing how nobody seems to give a shit. She requested Xena and a fire breathing dragon specifically.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 12, 2020, 07:05:38 am
I wear a bandana around my face.  It's main purpose is to keep me from touching my face, and also to remind people to keep their distance.

Also helps capture breath droplets if you're a carrier. everyone needs to be masking up in public. I made these memes for my ex gf by request because as a nurse in rural Wisconsin she HATES seeing how nobody seems to give a shit. She requested Xena and a fire breathing dragon specifically.

Based on data out of South Korea, it really doesn't do shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 12, 2020, 02:31:40 pm
I wear a bandana around my face.  It's main purpose is to keep me from touching my face, and also to remind people to keep their distance.

Also helps capture breath droplets if you're a carrier. everyone needs to be masking up in public. I made these memes for my ex gf by request because as a nurse in rural Wisconsin she HATES seeing how nobody seems to give a shit. She requested Xena and a fire breathing dragon specifically.

Based on data out of South Korea, it really doesn't do shit.

Are you telling me that the masks are straight up ineffectual? That would be very disturbing news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 12, 2020, 02:55:40 pm
This is EVEN MORE disturbing news.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/texas-governor-vows-issue-executive-185600728.html

Quote
"We can and we must do this," Abbott said. "We can do both, expand and restore the livelihoods that Texans want to have by helping them return to work. One thing about Texans, they enjoy working and they want to get back into the workforce. We have to come up with strategies on how we can do this safely."

Get the FUCK out of Texas. It's overtly about "business", but I suspect he's also pandering to strong pressure from the churches that he's not saying out loud.

related...

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/10/828340554/watch-white-house-task-force-briefing-on-coronavirus-response


Quote
"The metrics right here," Trump said, pointing to his temple.

We are SO fucked. It's Easter Sunday morning. I'm having me a rum and coke before 9.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 12, 2020, 03:11:18 pm
Quote
"We're still capable and we're still ready no matter what the threat," Joint Chiefs Chairman General Mark Milley said Thursday.

"I wouldn't want any mixed messages going out there to any adversaries that they can take advantage of an opportunity, if you will, at a time of crisis," he added.

"That would be a terrible and tragic mistake if they thought that."

- 150 bases affected -
:weary: They might as well be saying "please test us. Here's a quick number to get you interested in testing us."

Here's... here's the rest of the article. It doesn't get better.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hit-virus-pentagon-warns-enemies-dont-test-us-165113632.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 12, 2020, 03:48:54 pm
Quote
"I don't know how many more bodies I can take," Patrick Marmo, a funeral-home operator in Brooklyn, previously told Business Insider's Dave Mosher. "No one in the New York City area possibly has enough equipment to care for human remains of this magnitude."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/teams-retrieving-280-bodies-day-170100636.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on April 12, 2020, 04:13:35 pm
Masks aren’t ineffective. Makeshift masks like bandanas are. Loose weave and useless gaps in the fit.

If it doesn’t at least have the metal nose strip, it’s worthless. If it’s hand made, it might still be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 12, 2020, 04:16:38 pm
Masks aren’t ineffective. Makeshift masks like bandanas are. Loose weave and useless gaps in the fit.

If it doesn’t at least have the metal nose strip, it’s worthless. If it’s hand made, it might still be.

They're definitely not proper, sealed anti-viral masks, but damn I was hoping just keeping mouths covered would help.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on April 12, 2020, 04:55:10 pm
There is some peer-reviewed evidence that cloth masks do help. Here's that epidemiologist again: https://www.facebook.com/jenniferkastenmd/photos/a.100804298239184/119907909662156/

(charts and references in the above link)

Quote
A (peer-reviewed) paper in Nature Medicine out of Hong Kong looked at the amount of virus which is released by infected people during normal breathing, and whether or not surgical masks effectively blocked that virus. They did NOT look at COVID-19 patients in particular, just patients with all human respiratory viruses including the common cold coronaviruses (which are all of similar size).

They took 246 people, divided them in half (not the people in half, the sample size) and asked half to wear a mask/half to not, and captured the viral load in their exhaled breath for THIRTY MINUTES. If they needed to cough, they coughed- so some of this viral capture is via the much higher forces generated by human coughing. So that's a LOAD of virus- way, way, way more virus than a casual walk-by in a grocery store or public park could possibly generate.

There was a stunningly good reduction- see the attached graph: the coronavirus patients had detectable virus in 0/11 aerosol and 0/11 droplet specimens. The rate for influenza was almost as good. It was rhinovirus, the classic "common cold" virus, which proved the most elusive.

Right, I hear you say, but that's surgical masks- what about humble cloth masks? Well, a small, limited, observational study published out of Korea in the Annals of Internal Medicine showed a similar effect: they gave known infected COVID-19 patients cloth masks. They set up a Petri dish full of viral growth media 8 inches from their face, and asked them to cough forcefully. Even in that scenario, there was a 30% reduction in the amount of virus detected (versus no mask).

Only 30%?! Well, yes. So move back more than 8 inches (6 feet is advised); consider breathing v coughing forcefully; put a face mask on the "Petri dish" (i.e. the other person); AND give the "Petri dish" an innate immune system. You can see how effective a cloth mask is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 12, 2020, 08:23:51 pm
Masks aren’t ineffective. Makeshift masks like bandanas are. Loose weave and useless gaps in the fit.

If it doesn’t at least have the metal nose strip, it’s worthless. If it’s hand made, it might still be.

As I say, it keeps me from touching my face and reminds people to stay away.

I am not using proper masks.  Those are needed by healthcare workers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 13, 2020, 12:31:13 am
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2-z2W6A6oTI0IJXUCcUl_z0bjPZEOQyfpU5-2AatOjuj9fHJ5JsjOfUH0

This is the 21st century in one article.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 13, 2020, 12:52:02 am
 :nuke: :kingmeh:

Ok. Time to just tabula rasa the whole thing. Humans are over.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: tyrannosaurus vex on April 13, 2020, 01:01:39 am
I can't wait for the conspiracy people to seize this article as proof this was an evil plot by China to use biological weapons on the entire world
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 13, 2020, 02:02:40 am
Quote
South Korea has confirmed 111 cases of coronavirus reinfection (as of Sunday noon) with most cases reported in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, two epicenters of the domestic outbreak.

Jung Eun-kyeong, director of Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), said on Sunday the organization was exploring possible causes of reinfection.

"For now it is uncertain what led to reinfection ― revived virus that survived treatment or fresh exposure to the virus after recovery," Jung said.


http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/04/119_287752.html?fbclid=IwAR0Xq84M1yLVlND7LpU8SEehX1D6iBTo_sp1W6y9jvYUb0UKJRLo6eLwBJU


Well... fuck. Just fuck it all. I'm going to bed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 13, 2020, 04:09:49 am
Quote
South Korea has confirmed 111 cases of coronavirus reinfection (as of Sunday noon) with most cases reported in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, two epicenters of the domestic outbreak.

Jung Eun-kyeong, director of Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), said on Sunday the organization was exploring possible causes of reinfection.

"For now it is uncertain what led to reinfection ― revived virus that survived treatment or fresh exposure to the virus after recovery," Jung said.


http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/04/119_287752.html?fbclid=IwAR0Xq84M1yLVlND7LpU8SEehX1D6iBTo_sp1W6y9jvYUb0UKJRLo6eLwBJU


Well... fuck. Just fuck it all. I'm going to bed.

My guess is that it's hiding, like ebola does (in the eyeballs) or herpes (in the spinal cord).  Then it reemerges.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 13, 2020, 04:12:22 am
Which also means, once a carrier, always a carrier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 13, 2020, 08:33:43 am
Which also means, once a carrier, always a carrier.

Yup. Upthread I speculated about this possibility and compared it to impetigo,but that virus takes a lifetime to reemerge. This is doing it in a couple months. Once you're symptomatic again, you're contagious again. and again. and... fuck. If I could choose what to have been wrong about between this and being airborne, I would prefer it to be airborne. Some of my more existential concerns are now FAR more likely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on April 13, 2020, 02:31:05 pm
If all the reported reinfections are in South Korea (which doesn't have a particularly high infection rate to begin with), I would consider a systemic problem to be more likely.  Look to the lab.  Unless reports of this start appearing in other places, I wouldn't take it too seriously.

Remember:
The test has a 100% accuracy rate.
The individuals involved didn't have any health issues or unusual genetics peculiar to the area.
The data was entered into the computers without error.
The database software is bug-free.  No two people have the same name.
The original news reporters are subject matter experts, and understood perfectly what the scientists were saying.
Every news agency is careful to do their own research before repeating a claim.

Science is slow.  Wait for the results to be reproduced.  It's not like you can do anything about this, anyway.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on April 13, 2020, 04:26:05 pm
I wear a bandana around my face.  It's main purpose is to keep me from touching my face, and also to remind people to keep their distance.

Also helps capture breath droplets if you're a carrier. everyone needs to be masking up in public. I made these memes for my ex gf by request because as a nurse in rural Wisconsin she HATES seeing how nobody seems to give a shit. She requested Xena and a fire breathing dragon specifically.

Based on data out of South Korea, it really doesn't do shit.

Are you telling me that the masks are straight up ineffectual? That would be very disturbing news.
Depends on the mask. I've got some N95 masks left over from the Camp fire and they're 95% effective. Surgical masks also filter 95% of the virus. The cloth masks are much less effective but that depends on the weave, too. The tighter the weave, the better, and a layer of flannel is also helpful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: P3nT4gR4m on April 13, 2020, 06:01:02 pm
If all the reported reinfections are in South Korea (which doesn't have a particularly high infection rate to begin with), I would consider a systemic problem to be more likely.  Look to the lab.  Unless reports of this start appearing in other places, I wouldn't take it too seriously.

Remember:
The test has a 100% accuracy rate.
The individuals involved didn't have any health issues or unusual genetics peculiar to the area.
The data was entered into the computers without error.
The database software is bug-free.  No two people have the same name.
The original news reporters are subject matter experts, and understood perfectly what the scientists were saying.
Every news agency is careful to do their own research before repeating a claim.

Science is slow.  Wait for the results to be reproduced.  It's not like you can do anything about this, anyway.

All of the above
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 14, 2020, 02:04:02 am
A friend of mine just countered the "this isn't as bad as the flu" thing.

It's not as bad as the flu because we are in fact doing something about it, whereas we just let the flu march around in big shitty stomping boots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 14, 2020, 02:15:54 am
A friend of mine just countered the "this isn't as bad as the flu" thing.

It's not as bad as the flu because we are in fact doing something about it, whereas we just let the flu march around in big shitty stomping boots.

Can I use that? It's a good counter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 14, 2020, 02:20:57 am
A friend of mine just countered the "this isn't as bad as the flu" thing.

It's not as bad as the flu because we are in fact doing something about it, whereas we just let the flu march around in big shitty stomping boots.

Can I use that? It's a good counter.

I am.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on April 14, 2020, 09:09:46 pm
Which also means, once a carrier, always a carrier.

Insanely common with a lot of viruses, actually. Epstein-Barr, which causes mononucleosis, does this. Varicella zoster, or chickenpox, is a given, as shingles is the result of reactivation, as well as the rest of the herpes viruses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on April 14, 2020, 09:13:36 pm
A friend of mine just countered the "this isn't as bad as the flu" thing.

It's not as bad as the flu because we are in fact doing something about it, whereas we just let the flu march around in big shitty stomping boots.

Imagine if people were as prophylactic about the flu? Holy shit. That's 20,000-60,000 less deaths a year in the US alone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 15, 2020, 01:27:35 am
And then and then and then

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52289056?at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom3=%40BBCBreaking&at_custom4=FF6CAAE8-7E9F-11EA-A0A9-EBD0923C408C&fbclid=IwAR2M54PyAYTheTqFKGcYpQe3X0yobfkGafb4-Z71aMJARSD3EZrL1kHNS-o
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on April 15, 2020, 02:09:08 pm
And then and then and then

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52289056?at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom3=%40BBCBreaking&at_custom4=FF6CAAE8-7E9F-11EA-A0A9-EBD0923C408C&fbclid=IwAR2M54PyAYTheTqFKGcYpQe3X0yobfkGafb4-Z71aMJARSD3EZrL1kHNS-o

Now is not the time to address our problems!  Now is the time for the pointing of fingers and the covering of asses!
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Junkenstein on April 15, 2020, 10:19:54 pm
A friend of mine just countered the "this isn't as bad as the flu" thing.

It's not as bad as the flu because we are in fact doing something about it, whereas we just let the flu march around in big shitty stomping boots.

Imagine if people were as prophylactic about the flu? Holy shit. That's 20,000-60,000 less deaths a year in the US alone.

There's a "falling down" not economically viable joke here somewhere. The way the death industry is structured, you can't help but wonder what a consistent 5% +/- in the overall yearly death rate would transfer into as gdp.

Not like any funeral parlours are particularly hurting for trade right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 15, 2020, 10:56:18 pm
 :fnord:

https://www.themarysue.com/steak-umm-twitter-account-coronavirus-truth-telling/?fbclid=IwAR08StufgT4qBBXKgLLN7rEBbxQWSsmWKXWM-9satFu2euDTN2BNwSnw2aQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 16, 2020, 05:30:07 pm
Wasn't sure whether or not to put this in the Trump thread, but decided here because it relates directly to how the virus is getting around.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/15/trump-accused-actively-and-knowingly-spreading-coronavirus-central-america-through?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR11n1fuWI91V56hDrIWSvRxqJJt6zvIxlEb1MjTeQ6aTzCwPB16J8zRB-E
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: cigarki spiritual on April 16, 2020, 06:55:12 pm
I've found this website to be really interesting - it allows comparing the curves of diferent countries. The curve for Bulgaria has been quite strange in comparison to our neighbours so I'm currently trying to get to the bottom of why that is the case. Might spend the next couple of days comparing the curves of different countries and taking into account various factors such as tuberculosis vaccine (currently the theory of why ex soviet states are getting hit less hard), press freedom and overall type of regime (to see to what extent the data just reflects strategies of obfuscation by governments) and everything else I can think of, so that I can get a better idea of what the actual situation is. Probably best done with a neural network, but I don't know where to start with one so good old Social Science bachelor's methods are the best I have.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on April 16, 2020, 08:11:39 pm
Wasn't sure whether or not to put this in the Trump thread, but decided here because it relates directly to how the virus is getting around.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/15/trump-accused-actively-and-knowingly-spreading-coronavirus-central-america-through?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR11n1fuWI91V56hDrIWSvRxqJJt6zvIxlEb1MjTeQ6aTzCwPB16J8zRB-E
Jesus fuck. Of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 16, 2020, 11:58:10 pm
I've found this website to be really interesting - it allows comparing the curves of diferent countries. The curve for Bulgaria has been quite strange in comparison to our neighbours so I'm currently trying to get to the bottom of why that is the case. Might spend the next couple of days comparing the curves of different countries and taking into account various factors such as tuberculosis vaccine (currently the theory of why ex soviet states are getting hit less hard), press freedom and overall type of regime (to see to what extent the data just reflects strategies of obfuscation by governments) and everything else I can think of, so that I can get a better idea of what the actual situation is. Probably best done with a neural network, but I don't know where to start with one so good old Social Science bachelor's methods are the best I have.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

I'm very interested in the website. The graphic is clear and shows the US WAY out in the lead... lucky US.

I'm unsure of the effectiveness of TB vaccine because TB is bacterial and this is a retrovirus, but but I hope so, somehow.

THe Chinese used straight up gestapo tactics testing folks for even a mild fever and putting them, and the whole household, into quarantine concentration camp "hospitals". Then they check their social networkdata on you and test everyone you may have interacted with. I can't even be mad at them, even as I watched vid of building doors getting welded shut consigning folks to a nasty death in the name of containment. I do not TRUST China's numbers, nor Russia's, nor really the US. South Korea is what I look to as a model of responsible reporting and action right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 17, 2020, 03:06:32 pm
Just a note that altered pointed out to me that I have been misusing the word retrovirus. This coronavirus is an RNA envelope virus and I was well aware of that, but I mistook Retovirus to mean all RNA viruses, but it is a specific sort of RNA virus and coronaviruses are not in that family. My bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: P3nT4gR4m on April 17, 2020, 05:05:14 pm
I'm very interested in the website. The graphic is clear and shows the US WAY out in the lead... lucky US.

*snip*

Not even an also ran, mate. Per capita we're more than double your paltry efforts :argh!:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 17, 2020, 06:17:25 pm
I'm very interested in the website. The graphic is clear and shows the US WAY out in the lead... lucky US.

*snip*

Not even an also ran, mate. Per capita we're more than double your paltry efforts :argh!:

Look you wanna talk numbers? You wanna talk numbers and you want them to be right numbers. I've seen them. I've seen the big numbers. The not so big numbers. Some of it is amazing. These numbers are doing incredible thinks while I think them. Sometimes. you gotta sometimes put the not-so good numbers to the side. You just got to do better. But who has the time right? So you take the numbers you can trust from not the fake media,because they're not honest. You don't get the numbers there. You just give them to the people. People will know. People understand numbers better, I think, than the media and even, let's be honest, some medical people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: P3nT4gR4m on April 17, 2020, 09:44:51 pm
I'm very interested in the website. The graphic is clear and shows the US WAY out in the lead... lucky US.

*snip*

Not even an also ran, mate. Per capita we're more than double your paltry efforts :argh!:

Look you wanna talk numbers? You wanna talk numbers and you want them to be right numbers. I've seen them. I've seen the big numbers. The not so big numbers. Some of it is amazing. These numbers are doing incredible thinks while I think them. Sometimes. you gotta sometimes put the not-so good numbers to the side. You just got to do better. But who has the time right? So you take the numbers you can trust from not the fake media,because they're not honest. You don't get the numbers there. You just give them to the people. People will know. People understand numbers better, I think, than the media and even, let's be honest, some medical people.


 :spit:

Wait, you're the donald's speech writer? Whose side you on?  :argh!:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 17, 2020, 10:03:33 pm
I'm very interested in the website. The graphic is clear and shows the US WAY out in the lead... lucky US.

*snip*

Not even an also ran, mate. Per capita we're more than double your paltry efforts :argh!:

Look you wanna talk numbers? You wanna talk numbers and you want them to be right numbers. I've seen them. I've seen the big numbers. The not so big numbers. Some of it is amazing. These numbers are doing incredible thinks while I think them. Sometimes. you gotta sometimes put the not-so good numbers to the side. You just got to do better. But who has the time right? So you take the numbers you can trust from not the fake media,because they're not honest. You don't get the numbers there. You just give them to the people. People will know. People understand numbers better, I think, than the media and even, let's be honest, some medical people.


 :spit:

Wait, you're the donald's speech writer? Whose side you on?  :argh!:

 :lulz: :lulz: :lulz: :lulz: :lulz:

Let's just say that Donnie can't afford me, but I could probably replace half of his speech writers and political "advisors" and nobody would notice. I've been working on imitating him for years in secret, mostly because nobody wants to hear me imitate his linguistic "fist". People on the right tend to think I'm mocking their messiah, or just absorb and parrot it. People on the left tend to rage quit VERY quickly. I just couldn't help myself this time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: P3nT4gR4m on April 18, 2020, 12:18:04 am
If you're pissing off the left and the right, I call that "The Sweet Spot"
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 18, 2020, 12:31:46 am
I'm very interested in the website. The graphic is clear and shows the US WAY out in the lead... lucky US.

*snip*

Not even an also ran, mate. Per capita we're more than double your paltry efforts :argh!:

Look you wanna talk numbers? You wanna talk numbers and you want them to be right numbers. I've seen them. I've seen the big numbers. The not so big numbers. Some of it is amazing. These numbers are doing incredible thinks while I think them. Sometimes. you gotta sometimes put the not-so good numbers to the side. You just got to do better. But who has the time right? So you take the numbers you can trust from not the fake media,because they're not honest. You don't get the numbers there. You just give them to the people. People will know. People understand numbers better, I think, than the media and even, let's be honest, some medical people.

:mittens:

People are talking about this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 18, 2020, 12:37:22 am
I'm very interested in the website. The graphic is clear and shows the US WAY out in the lead... lucky US.

*snip*

Not even an also ran, mate. Per capita we're more than double your paltry efforts :argh!:

Look you wanna talk numbers? You wanna talk numbers and you want them to be right numbers. I've seen them. I've seen the big numbers. The not so big numbers. Some of it is amazing. These numbers are doing incredible thinks while I think them. Sometimes. you gotta sometimes put the not-so good numbers to the side. You just got to do better. But who has the time right? So you take the numbers you can trust from not the fake media,because they're not honest. You don't get the numbers there. You just give them to the people. People will know. People understand numbers better, I think, than the media and even, let's be honest, some medical people.

:mittens:

People are talking about this.

 :lol: Aw shit my cover is blown! Goddamnit when will I learn to KYFMS?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 18, 2020, 01:21:07 am
Also this:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/record-4591-reported-us-coronavirus-deaths-in-24-hours-2020-04-16?fbclid=IwAR3TFNvJBmQRTFifdiTyKRlWYc_LzPV5aB6SuuSjAD-ViAafKlw-PMfx9kE

Totally ready to open the economy over here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on April 19, 2020, 05:29:55 pm
Here's some interesting data. It's a US-State-by-State breakdown of how fast the virus is spreading.

https://rt.live/

draw your own conclusions  :p
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on April 19, 2020, 08:36:39 pm
I'd want to see data wrt which states are really ramping up testing - I know my county has been doing a bunch more tho our death count is holding steady at 7 (for about a 2% mortality rate) over the last three days or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on April 20, 2020, 05:17:45 am
Yes, the Florida beaches are open. But those pictures and videos you see of it being loaded with people? Stock images. From Getty Images.

I live in Atlantic Beach, just north of Jacksonville Beach. Those crowds don't exist. Nobody I know between all three beaches has seen them, and the same image of the "walking dead" so to speak on the beach, was also used for LA County. The more I look at it, the more it looks like sagebrush in the background. That's not Jax Beach, Jax Beach has high rises and parking lots. That's a SoCal beach, from whenever the fuck it was taken.

The fucking Sunshine Laws have given the world the gift of entertainment, but I guess when Florida Man doesn't actually provide, the media has to get clicks somehow.

I'll go out there on Tuesday when I'm in the town center for therapy, and take a look for myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on April 20, 2020, 01:32:50 pm
I'm also guessing that most of the major newstations's camera people are actually practicing social distancing, if they're even working at all, and probably didn't want to go to what sounded like Infection Beach.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on April 20, 2020, 02:16:40 pm
File under "conspiracy theories which may hold water"

Here's a Reddit thread I've seen being kicked around. Somebody ran a WHOIS on the websites that are organizing these "reopen the country" protests, and found that a lot of them seem to be organized by the same LLC. These things are Astroturf. But who's behind it? Right now, evidence is inconclusive.

https://www.reddit.com/r/maryland/comments/g3niq3/comment/fnstpyl
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on April 20, 2020, 03:05:38 pm
At a guess? His name rhymes with Prad Barscale.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on April 20, 2020, 03:31:30 pm
File under "conspiracy theories which may hold water"

Here's a Reddit thread I've seen being kicked around. Somebody ran a WHOIS on the websites that are organizing these "reopen the country" protests, and found that a lot of them seem to be organized by the same LLC. These things are Astroturf. But who's behind it? Right now, evidence is inconclusive.

https://www.reddit.com/r/maryland/comments/g3niq3/comment/fnstpyl

Our sales guy in Heuston said the same thing on a call a few minutes ago: All the protest signs were same font, similar colour scheme, all made by one group
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on April 20, 2020, 05:22:54 pm
Local news laid down the law.

The image that Getty is pushing as "Jax Beach" is not. It looks more like a SoCal beach with sagebrush on the side.

https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/jacksonville-beach-reopen-video-live/77-ff8a26bd-34cc-4763-afad-214cff4c131c?fbclid=IwAR2lV92e-SqpWE2eV1sLzWbA4mrq0JEvxrqZaqUKr1-ZSrYErN4eLuxPcu0
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on April 20, 2020, 05:25:16 pm
File under "conspiracy theories which may hold water"

Here's a Reddit thread I've seen being kicked around. Somebody ran a WHOIS on the websites that are organizing these "reopen the country" protests, and found that a lot of them seem to be organized by the same LLC. These things are Astroturf. But who's behind it? Right now, evidence is inconclusive.

https://www.reddit.com/r/maryland/comments/g3niq3/comment/fnstpyl

It's absolutely astroturfing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on April 20, 2020, 11:31:13 pm
Oh, no wonder why the elite are pushing to reopen the economy. Crude is -$37 a barrel. suppliers are literally paying people to take oil off of their hands. When nobody is driving/flying/boating in addition to using less heat as we get into the summer, there's no need for petroleum products.

Dead dinosaur goo barons run the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on April 21, 2020, 12:17:32 am
Oh, no wonder why the elite are pushing to reopen the economy. Crude is -$37 a barrel. suppliers are literally paying people to take oil off of their hands. When nobody is driving/flying/boating in addition to using less heat as we get into the summer, there's no need for petroleum products.

Dead dinosaur goo barons run the world.

As with the fossilized peat barons before them, human lives are just part of the price of doing business (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_coal_wars).
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on April 21, 2020, 04:22:49 pm
Just for fun, here's a Deep Research Dive on the "anti-mask" protests during the Spanish Flu

https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1251936242834563073
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on April 21, 2020, 08:34:57 pm
Who could have known that randomly giving people inappropriate drugs might have a downside?

https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

Quote
More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 22, 2020, 02:33:25 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlVU8XTLICI&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR2aHXkNEytEyI_tMBfbqyl9y8uCErSXoQ9Rw1DbcEbjlnqfSzrDc28jFxA

Dr. John Campbell has been breaking down the numbers faithfully and calmly for QUITE some time and is an excellent source of analysis IMO. He's calling bullshit quite a bit these days, and he's not the sort to do so lightly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on April 22, 2020, 04:21:32 am
Who could have known that randomly giving people inappropriate drugs might have a downside?

https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

Quote
More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study

Here's the actual study on that, for those that like hard science boners and primary sources.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v1.full.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2tC9HVikVBd7xmhOBJI_8rvr31Dm07jsKZyo1Hm73xOIIgUBxFU2K3ou0
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on April 22, 2020, 09:20:11 am
Who could have known that randomly giving people inappropriate drugs might have a downside?

https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

Quote
More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study

Here's the actual study on that, for those that like hard science boners and primary sources.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v1.full.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2tC9HVikVBd7xmhOBJI_8rvr31Dm07jsKZyo1Hm73xOIIgUBxFU2K3ou0

This is what I want in my life right now. Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 27, 2020, 01:37:43 pm
Quote
As Oxley, an interventional neurologist, began the procedure to remove the clot, he observed something he had never seen before. On the monitors, the brain typically shows up as a tangle of black squiggles — “like a can of spaghetti,” he said — that provide a map of blood vessels. A clot shows up as a blank spot. As he used a needlelike device to pull out the clot, he saw new clots forming in real-time around it.

“This is crazy,” he remembers telling his boss.

Quote
One month ago, as the country went into lockdown to prepare for the first wave of coronavirus cases, many doctors felt confident that they knew what they were dealing with. Based on early reports, covid-19 appeared to be a standard variety respiratory virus, albeit a very contagious and lethal one with no vaccine and no treatment. But they’ve since become increasingly convinced that covid-19 attacks not only the lungs, but also the kidneys, heart, intestines, liver and brain.

Quote
The clinical shape of the disease, long presumed to be a relatively predictable respiratory infection, is getting less clear by the week. Lately, it seems, by the day. As Carl Zimmer, probably the country’s most respected science journalist, asked virologists in a tweet last week, “is there any other virus out there that is this weird in terms of its range of symptoms?”

Quote
But for weeks now, front-line doctors have been expressing confusion that so many coronavirus patients were registering lethally low blood-oxygenation levels while still appearing, by almost any vernacular measure, pretty okay.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-still-dont-know-how-the-coronavirus-is-killing-us.html?fbclid=IwAR37bpCOh1zitfsNkXRzdLJAsbI6Q5CODGVd1_-2cfuCI97Wjyv7Uj9B6Nk

 :| This motherfucker is by FAR the weirdest, least predictable virus I ever heard of. Some speculation referred to in the article cites EXTREME possible mutation ability. I would not at all be surprised if that proves clinically true after more testing. There ain't gonna be a vaccine "cure". Do not look to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on April 27, 2020, 03:00:40 pm
I was coming here to post the same article. A very interesting read.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on April 27, 2020, 03:19:34 pm
yes, interesting and disturbing

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on April 27, 2020, 06:20:42 pm
Quote
As Oxley, an interventional neurologist, began the procedure to remove the clot, he observed something he had never seen before. On the monitors, the brain typically shows up as a tangle of black squiggles — “like a can of spaghetti,” he said — that provide a map of blood vessels. A clot shows up as a blank spot. As he used a needlelike device to pull out the clot, he saw new clots forming in real-time around it.

“This is crazy,” he remembers telling his boss.

Quote
One month ago, as the country went into lockdown to prepare for the first wave of coronavirus cases, many doctors felt confident that they knew what they were dealing with. Based on early reports, covid-19 appeared to be a standard variety respiratory virus, albeit a very contagious and lethal one with no vaccine and no treatment. But they’ve since become increasingly convinced that covid-19 attacks not only the lungs, but also the kidneys, heart, intestines, liver and brain.

Quote
The clinical shape of the disease, long presumed to be a relatively predictable respiratory infection, is getting less clear by the week. Lately, it seems, by the day. As Carl Zimmer, probably the country’s most respected science journalist, asked virologists in a tweet last week, “is there any other virus out there that is this weird in terms of its range of symptoms?”

Quote
But for weeks now, front-line doctors have been expressing confusion that so many coronavirus patients were registering lethally low blood-oxygenation levels while still appearing, by almost any vernacular measure, pretty okay.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-still-dont-know-how-the-coronavirus-is-killing-us.html?fbclid=IwAR37bpCOh1zitfsNkXRzdLJAsbI6Q5CODGVd1_-2cfuCI97Wjyv7Uj9B6Nk

 :| This motherfucker is by FAR the weirdest, least predictable virus I ever heard of. Some speculation referred to in the article cites EXTREME possible mutation ability. I would not at all be surprised if that proves clinically true after more testing. There ain't gonna be a vaccine "cure". Do not look to it.

All the info is interesting, but I do not follow why you would state that there would be no "vaccine <<cure>>"... like, vaccines dont cure symptoms, they cure causes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on April 27, 2020, 06:42:15 pm
Also, we have no current reason to believe nCOV mutates it’s surface antigens with any frequency. That’s the mutation that reduces the chances of a vaccine, mutation in general does not.

The flu is hard to vaccinate against because it’s mutations change the surface antigens, not because of its mutations as a whole.

On the flip side, feline leukemia is caused by a virus that mutates like hell and has 4 co-incident strains that are worth discussing on top of innumerable variants that are functionally identical, but only needs one vaccine for all of them because the virus never changes the surface antigens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: LMNO on April 27, 2020, 06:49:36 pm
I've been remaining quiet in this thread, mostly because I'm not well versed in virology and immunology (or, to be fair, any -ology), but I would like to say that reading it is like a rollercoaster of panic followed by varying levels of "calming down", based on whoever posted last.

I'm not saying it's a bad feeling, but it is interesting to observe myself going through it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on April 27, 2020, 06:59:13 pm
This is definitely panic worthy. Don’t get me wrong.

I’ve been obsessively interested in viruses for most of my life (a gal’s gotta have a hobby) and especially those that affect the blood. Most of the cellular machinery that a virus wants does not exist in red blood cells, they’re super strange to see affected as a result.

And it isn’t like there isn’t a bizarre amount of ways they can affect the blood. Inactivating clotting factors, or hemoglobin, as two examples.

I’ve never heard of a virus causing clotting. That’s entirely novel as far as I know. Certainly novel in coronaviruses, which are (as far as I can find any information) universally respiratory.

That makes this panic worthy. We don’t know what it’s doing, how it’s doing it, or how to treat the symptoms.

Vaccination is nothing to panic over yet, because we have no reason to believe it will even be just a bit more difficult than usual yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 27, 2020, 07:17:59 pm
Quote
As Oxley, an interventional neurologist, began the procedure to remove the clot, he observed something he had never seen before. On the monitors, the brain typically shows up as a tangle of black squiggles — “like a can of spaghetti,” he said — that provide a map of blood vessels. A clot shows up as a blank spot. As he used a needlelike device to pull out the clot, he saw new clots forming in real-time around it.

“This is crazy,” he remembers telling his boss.

Quote
One month ago, as the country went into lockdown to prepare for the first wave of coronavirus cases, many doctors felt confident that they knew what they were dealing with. Based on early reports, covid-19 appeared to be a standard variety respiratory virus, albeit a very contagious and lethal one with no vaccine and no treatment. But they’ve since become increasingly convinced that covid-19 attacks not only the lungs, but also the kidneys, heart, intestines, liver and brain.

Quote
The clinical shape of the disease, long presumed to be a relatively predictable respiratory infection, is getting less clear by the week. Lately, it seems, by the day. As Carl Zimmer, probably the country’s most respected science journalist, asked virologists in a tweet last week, “is there any other virus out there that is this weird in terms of its range of symptoms?”

Quote
But for weeks now, front-line doctors have been expressing confusion that so many coronavirus patients were registering lethally low blood-oxygenation levels while still appearing, by almost any vernacular measure, pretty okay.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-still-dont-know-how-the-coronavirus-is-killing-us.html?fbclid=IwAR37bpCOh1zitfsNkXRzdLJAsbI6Q5CODGVd1_-2cfuCI97Wjyv7Uj9B6Nk

 :| This motherfucker is by FAR the weirdest, least predictable virus I ever heard of. Some speculation referred to in the article cites EXTREME possible mutation ability. I would not at all be surprised if that proves clinically true after more testing. There ain't gonna be a vaccine "cure". Do not look to it.

All the info is interesting, but I do not follow why you would state that there would be no "vaccine <<cure>>"... like, vaccines dont cure symptoms, they cure causes?

The reason that there's a "flu shot" and yet flu is incurable is the constant mutation of the virus and the permutations of infection patterns. We understand flu well enough to have yearly vaccines available to help mitigate the spread of the most likely flus during a season, but there is no cure. Flu is endemic to humans. I personally think this fucker is ultimately going the same way, too many mutations to vaccinate for them all individually. The promise of a "cure" through vaccination, or even the "herd immunity" being tossed around, is in my estimation slim. I was not at all talking about symptom treatment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on April 27, 2020, 07:20:56 pm
The flu isn't a fatty virus and we could target multiple strains if we wish it's just the emergent few that get picked up because there are many variants of it.
There aren't of this.
There is no indication or evidence yet of it being mutable to the extent the flu is, there might be in time, but assuming it is isn't basing it on anything
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on April 27, 2020, 07:22:39 pm
Again, surface antigen mutation is the only kind of mutation that affects vaccination. I did write a pretty solid rebuttal of the mutation means no vaccine thing just a tad upthread, after all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 27, 2020, 07:24:02 pm
Here's the most recent, seemingly reliable article on the vaccination of coronaviruses as a guideline towards curing the "Covid" virus. it makes NO promises and pulls no punches.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-vaccine/art-20484859
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on April 27, 2020, 07:39:57 pm
It makes no promises because we have no way of knowing yet. We also have no reason to think it will be any more difficult than normal, either.

It could even be the opposite: the S protein simply being the most active of a number of binding sites, all of them changing the most important amino acid sequences every generation. Vaccinating against that is wholly impossible, even on a flu like scale.

The thing is, we have no reason to believe any particular thing about it. It makes sense to assume the standard vaccine option (attenuated viral vaccines) will work, until we have evidence it does not.

One good reason to think it will: the S antigen is shaped like a cone, pointy side out. HIV and influenza surface antigens are shaped like mushrooms, or balls on sticks. We can’t reach the stick part to create antibodies for it, so we have to focus on the balls, which are far more mutable.

A tapered spike, by comparison, has nowhere to hide the good stuff. We can reach almost the whole spike, it has a lot of surface area, and the chances of it changing the entire protein sequence of something that large is so small it can be safely dismissed. Even if the tip mutates, the larger cone is unlikely to do so, and antibodies can be produced against the sides of the cone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 28, 2020, 07:24:16 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_EbCfEwO4o&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR0RYMCs4c2v8uGUpq6TlrHo7HzhIjSX155lf1UE3nKRX5fDg3_Qo6XALpM
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on April 30, 2020, 03:20:00 pm
Finally, some good news!

Quote
"The data shows that remdesivir has a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery," Fauci said at the White House on Wednesday. The data he referred to is from a large study of more than 1,000 patients from multiple sites around the world. Patients either received the drug, called remdesivir, or a placebo.

Results from clinical trials are typically published in medical journals after review from outside experts. That hasn't happened yet with this latest study, but Fauci said that the results were so promising, there is "an ethical obligation to immediately let the placebo group know so they can have access" to the drug.

Fauci said the remdesivir study group was able to be discharged from the hospital within 11 days, on average, compared to 15 days in the placebo group.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-drug-remdesivir-shows-promise-large-trial-n1195171


Decreasing the amount of time a given patient needs to be in the hospital could have a big impact on ICU capacity, which will be a key factor in ending lock-downs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on April 30, 2020, 04:50:34 pm
That could be a very significant advantage.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on April 30, 2020, 05:09:43 pm
Indeed! That's excellent news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on April 30, 2020, 05:46:05 pm
Fuck I'll take it! Any edge is great at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on May 04, 2020, 04:15:12 pm
you know how the Branch Covidians are going "the death count is fake, any time somebody dies of anything, they count it as a covid death" ?


Sears is probably gonna go belly-up. But Sears was dying before covid, so clearly this is fake news and the economy is OK. They're just blaming this on covid to be sensational.  :lol:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/business/j-crew-bankruptcy-jcpenney-sears-neiman-marcus-retailers-coronavirus/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on May 04, 2020, 04:30:32 pm
you know how the Branch Covidians are going "the death count is fake, any time somebody dies of anything, they count it as a covid death" ?


Sears is probably gonna go belly-up. But Sears was dying before covid, so clearly this is fake news and the economy is OK. They're just blaming this on covid to be sensational.  :lol:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/business/j-crew-bankruptcy-jcpenney-sears-neiman-marcus-retailers-coronavirus/index.html

As Below, So Above
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on May 07, 2020, 04:00:37 pm
My company had two of our Economics authors (Stevenson and Wolfers) give a talk about how Covid-19 will impact the global economy. I'll give you the cliff's notes:

• They expect that when businesses reopen, sales aren't gonna be great... demand will be low (it'll take a few months for people to start going back to movie theaters, etc), and income is lower than normal, so it'll take a while for the economy to get back up to speed.

• The preliminary projection is that the economy won't really recover until 2023. But nobody knows for sure, and anybody who says they do is lying.

• Most economists agree that the most important thing right now is to "beat the bug" -- the economy will NOT recover until people feel safe going out in public and doing normal things. No economists think that "re-opening the economy" is possible without an effective health plan. People need confidence that they can shop and return to work safely - that's how the economy recovers.

• A lot of people are freaked out about the new multi-trillion dollar economic debt. Economists apparently aren't really concerned about this - they compared it to having a ton of credit card debt - the total debt isn't as important as whether you can make the monthly payment. They said that this is, essentially, a low-interest loan.

• We are seeing a big increase in savings accounts right now, which is smart. If possible, you should try to save a "rainy day" fund. Interestingly, the lack of spending right now creates a 'deflationary' pressure that will lower prices and counteract the inflation going on right now.

• Recessions accelerate innovation. In terms of the workforce, we can expect an increase in trends like automation and online shopping. Retail will probably not return to the same levels of employment as before Covid-19.

• They used the term "bailout fatigue" to describe politicians reluctance to cut more checks for the public. The economists intuition is that when politicians see the Q2 numbers, they will recognize that more 'bailouts' are necessary for economic recovery.

• Even the most conservative economists agree that the government should be borrowing money to invest in the future of the US. The most conservative economists insist that politicians should keep their pet projects out of these bills. But everybody agrees that gov spending, right now, is the best path to economic recovery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: LMNO on May 07, 2020, 04:34:52 pm
Maybe, finally, we'll have the infamous "Infrastructure Week" actually happen.






Who am I trying to kid?   :horrormirth:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on May 07, 2020, 06:01:51 pm
That all sounds pretty plausible to me.

I would also say that this is the key point:

Quote
Most economists agree that the most important thing right now is to "beat the bug" -- the economy will NOT recover until people feel safe going out in public and doing normal things. No economists think that "re-opening the economy" is possible without an effective health plan. People need confidence that they can shop and return to work safely - that's how the economy recovers.

Certain armed protestors whining about their "freedom" aside, most people don't want to kill Grandma, or their immuno-compromised friends. But while that remains a very real possibility, cinemas, restaurants, sporting venues etc simply won't recover.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on May 07, 2020, 06:09:05 pm
Certain armed protestors whining about their "freedom" aside, most people don't want to kill Grandma, or their immuno-compromised friends. But while that remains a very real possibility, cinemas, restaurants, sporting venues etc simply won't recover.

Normal is gone.  The world changed, and pretending it didn't always works out well.

Sort of like then warfare changes, and we keep building battleships for another 20 years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on May 07, 2020, 06:19:56 pm
I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to a more home-centric lifestyle. But I hate going out anyway.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on May 14, 2020, 06:14:19 am
Aaaaaand it's about to get real fuckin ugly in Wisconsin. (http://"https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/13/coronavirus-update-us/") their supreme court just struck down the shelter in place orders and didn't even give it the extension that the Republicans who brought the suit asked for to give their legislation time to figure out an alternative. It wasn't mentioned in this article but apparently it was compared to the Japanese internment camps in the majority opinion.
 :enough:
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 14, 2020, 07:30:13 am
Aaaaaand it's about to get real fuckin ugly in Wisconsin. (http://"https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/13/coronavirus-update-us/") their supreme court just struck down the shelter in place orders and didn't even give it the extension that the Republicans who brought the suit asked for to give their legislation time to figure out an alternative. It wasn't mentioned in this article but apparently it was compared to the Japanese internment camps in the majority opinion.
 :enough:

yup. Wisconsin is super low on prevention measures too. When I do go out almost nobody is wearing a mask and though as a big guy folks generally don't dare give me the stink eye, my mask gets glances, you know, THOSE glances. The WHOLE Republican propaganda machine in the state is dead set on deliberately getting shit tons of folks killed and crippled for life and there is shit I can do about it. Worse they want Ever's head on a plate quite literally for DARING to use executive authority to try getting people to comply with health recommendations. Stupid fucks don't even know what a virus is or why antibiotics don't work by and large. What's the big deal? I wanna go back to the bar!
 :wasp:
:teabagger1:
 :batman:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on May 14, 2020, 05:24:53 pm
This recaps info that's been posted here already, but it's a nice reminder -- you are probably not gonna catch the corona virus from passing joggers or bicyclists.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/24/21233226/coronavirus-runners-cyclists-airborne-infectious-dose
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on May 14, 2020, 05:35:06 pm
So the risk Covid-19 presents to children may be more complex than initially thought

https://www.nytimes.com/article/kawasaki-disease-coronavirus-children.html?fbclid=IwAR0RZgdcKsl9wFyxJu692xTd5ko87ICt80DSJVMQv7M71BXg0RWWaIKgdUo

Quote
The coronavirus has largely spared children. Most confirmed to be infected have had only mild symptoms. But doctors in Europe and the United States have recently reported a troubling new phenomenon: Some children are becoming seriously ill with symptoms that can involve inflammation in the skin, eyes, blood vessels and heart.

The condition, which doctors are calling “pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome,” is so new that there are still many unanswered questions about how and why it affects children. Here’s a summary of what is and isn’t known so far.

This is why it's far too soon to be talking about opening up schools and similar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 14, 2020, 05:48:01 pm
So the risk Covid-19 presents to children may be more complex than initially thought

https://www.nytimes.com/article/kawasaki-disease-coronavirus-children.html?fbclid=IwAR0RZgdcKsl9wFyxJu692xTd5ko87ICt80DSJVMQv7M71BXg0RWWaIKgdUo

Quote
The coronavirus has largely spared children. Most confirmed to be infected have had only mild symptoms. But doctors in Europe and the United States have recently reported a troubling new phenomenon: Some children are becoming seriously ill with symptoms that can involve inflammation in the skin, eyes, blood vessels and heart.

The condition, which doctors are calling “pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome,” is so new that there are still many unanswered questions about how and why it affects children. Here’s a summary of what is and isn’t known so far.

This is why it's far too soon to be talking about opening up schools and similar.

Paywalls gonna paywall, but I heard of this from other sources a while back. At the time I could not confirm. I am in no way surprised to find it confirmed though. We have NO IDEA what this little chimeric RNA fucking bastard is capable of. But hey, let's just let it run through the population. Screaming "herd immunity" loud enough will surely boost our immune systems sufficiently.

.. I may be a bit bitter at this point.  :|
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on May 14, 2020, 06:04:24 pm
Here's the full article:

Quote
The coronavirus has largely spared children. Most confirmed to be infected have had only mild symptoms. But doctors in Europe and the United States have recently reported a troubling new phenomenon: Some children are becoming seriously ill with symptoms that can involve inflammation in the skin, eyes, blood vessels and heart.

The condition, which doctors are calling “pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome,” is so new that there are still many unanswered questions about how and why it affects children. Here’s a summary of what is and isn’t known so far.

What are the symptoms?

Symptoms can include fever, rash, reddish eyes, swollen lymph nodes and sharp abdominal pain. They do not usually include two common hallmarks of Covid-19: cough and shortness of breath.

The syndrome can bear some resemblance to a rare childhood illness called Kawasaki disease, but as doctors learn more, they are emphasizing that the two conditions are not the same.

Both involve a surge of inflammation in the body and can have serious effects on the heart. But Dr. Steven Kernie, chief of pediatric critical care medicine at Columbia University and NewYork-Presbyterian Morgan Stanley Children’s Hospital, said the new syndrome appears to affect the heart differently. While Kawasaki disease can produce coronary aneurysms when left untreated, the new syndrome seems to mostly involve inflammation of coronary arteries and other blood vessels.

And though shock is a rare complication of Kawasaki disease, the new syndrome has sent many of the children into a kind of toxic shock with very low blood pressure and an inability of the blood to effectively circulate oxygen and nutrients to the body’s organs, Dr. Kernie said.

The coronavirus primarily affects adults by entering cells in their lungs and replicating, often causing respiratory failure. But this childhood syndrome “seems to be less a lung-specific disease,” Dr. Kernie said.

While most of the hospitalized children with the syndrome need some additional oxygen, and a few have required ventilators, the effect on the lungs seems to be driven by an inflammatory response that affects many other parts of the body as well.

Can it be fatal?

Three children in New York have died from it, Governor Andrew Cuomo reported on Saturday.  Another death, of a 14-year-old boy in England was reported in, a study in the journal Lancet.

How common is it?

There is no good data on how many children have developed the syndrome, but it appears to be a small number so far. On May 8, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said there had been 73 reported cases in New York state and that the health department was investigating several child deaths as other possible cases. A handful of cases have been reported in other states, including Louisiana, Mississippi and California. There have been at least 50 cases reported in European countries, including Britain, France, Switzerland, Spain and Italy.

How old are the children who have gotten it?

Hospitals have seen cases in children of all ages, from infants to older teenagers.

What should parents do if their child has symptoms?

Dr. Katie Schafer, a general pediatrician who has a private practice in Birmingham, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit, said that because there were still many unknowns about the condition, parents of children who have symptoms should take them to pediatricians rather than assuming that a rash or fever or abdominal pain is only a sign of a typical childhood illness.

“This is presenting very much like a common childhood illness, which it is not,” she said. “This is a novel diagnosis that doesn’t exactly have a name, doesn’t exactly have a timeline, doesn’t exactly have a protocol. We didn’t learn about this in medical school.”

How do we know it’s related to the coronavirus?

Many of the children who have become sick with the syndrome either tested positive for the coronavirus at the time of their symptoms, or had positive antibody tests suggesting they may have been infected weeks earlier. Dr. Schafer said it was possible that “this may be a post-infection condition and not necessarily part of the acute phase of Covid.”

What is the treatment?

Treatments have included steroids, intravenous immunoglobulin, high-dose aspirin and antibiotics, as well as supportive oxygen through the nose, a mask or, in the most serious cases, a ventilator. Most children who are intubated can be removed from the ventilators within a few days, doctors said.

Will there be long-term effects?

It’s unclear. Children who have had serious effects on their hearts will need to be monitored by cardiologists in case there is residual heart damage. Others will undoubtedly need to be followed by their pediatricians to keep track of any lingering effects.

Why would children get this and not adults?

Children may be at greater risk for this syndrome because their immune systems are not fully developed, Dr. Kernie said. But there are no clues yet as to why some children get sick and not others. Many of the children have been previously healthy. And the syndrome doesn’t seem to run in families, but Dr. Kernie’s hospital and others are doing genetic testing to see if there is a predisposition or genetic reason one child becomes very sick while siblings seem unscathed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 14, 2020, 06:07:48 pm
Thanks Cain.

In other news, On Wisconsin..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/14/wisconsin-bars-reopen-evers/?fbclid=IwAR3u4CXYvhgHj57HbIUJYoDnwj9ge2bPBa_sEfugpp_ZZHemASj1t0SxQ7M

Quote
“We’re the Wild West,” Evers told MSNBC’s Ali Velshi on Wednesday night, reacting to the state Supreme Court’s ruling and the scenes of people partying in bars all across Wisconsin. “There are no restrictions at all across the state of Wisconsin. … So at this point in time … there is nothing that’s compelling people to do anything other than having chaos here.”

Chaos it was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 16, 2020, 04:54:07 pm
https://twitter.com/seidtgeist/status/1261328237319327746?s=21

“Hey, Joe and Howl will get a kick out of this. I should post it.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on May 16, 2020, 06:04:16 pm
 :lulz:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 16, 2020, 06:18:53 pm
 :lulz: :lulz: :lulz:

Ahhhh Germany.
 :ahhh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 17, 2020, 11:48:28 pm
So... about that much higher R0 I had suspected would show up later in the analysis

https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought?fbclid=IwAR1H0QlkEoyICMF0CZTfPdHLwha-g80dhmNPUBKT7cJ-HPORvYl3r6SZVdY

There's some form of right-click prevention keeping me from just doing direct quotation but the number is likely about 5.7 with 95% certainty between the ranges of 3.8 and 8.9.

5.7 would require 82% global infection to achieve the vaunted "herd immunity" we don't even know for a fact is possible either because the virus re-presents or may reinfect after "recovery."

This article is from about two months ago when they thought it was less than half of this figure.

https://massivesci.com/articles/coronavirus-covid19-sars-mers-quarantine-social-distancing/

Quote
H1N1 (swine flu), which had an R0 of 1.4-1.6, and is roughly comparable to Ebola (R0 of 1.5-2.5) and SARS (R0 of 2-4). It’s much lower than smallpox (R0 of approximately 6.9), and measles (R0 of 12-18, but with substantial variation).

Quote
Most secondary infections from SARS and MERS occurred in hospitals, which prevented community spread of the virus. With COVID-19, we may be seeing more secondary infections and subsequent community spread as a result of primary cases not being tested, either due to lack of tests or lack of severe symptoms.

This community spread will continue as we are still having difficulties in identifying and counting mild cases of COVID-19. It currently seems COVID-19 is just as transmissible as SARS and MERS but not as deadly. However, everything we know about the virus, including R0 and case fatality rates, is preliminary and will evolve as the pandemic does.

And so the current data seems to indicate something more akin to smallpox in transmission. You know, the virus that pretty much obliterated the populations of two continents full of people with no immunity to what was for them a "novel" virus.

Let's be nice and pretend that 4% mortality would hold true even though the actual mortality sans medical infrastructure would dwarf that many fold. I roughly estimate that getting to 86% saturation of 7bn people or so is at that profoundly generous rate of mortality is around 6bn infections and 250,000,000 outright deaths. By way of comparison WWII is estimated at 56.4 million including all civilians. So even given the outlandishly optimistic 4% mortality it will kill something like 5 times WWII's total deaths.

This also does not take into account the permanently crippled or those that may hopefully somewhat recover after a lengthy period of intensive therapy, which will largely be unavailable.

This in the face of outright criminal negligence and straight up intentional malice passing for policy in a LOT of places.

This all from a virus alone not including the deaths from upheaval, famine, and the fun point where the global logistics can no longer support things that must never fail such as the 440 nuclear reactors and other processing and "temporary" waste storage facilities, for example.

  :fnord: :kingmeh:  :horrormirth:  :kingmeh:  :horrormirth:  :kingmeh: :fnord:


Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Fujikoma on May 18, 2020, 03:50:23 am
Preach. The shitty thing is we're about to find out the hard way. Hey maybe there will be job openings for me assuming I survive. Such a bleak silver-lining.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 18, 2020, 04:24:16 am
Here’s depressing for you:

I managed to travel across the fucking country without catching the plague. I have been staying in a hotel to isolate. And they put me in a room with a shared doorway to another room. Next room tonight: person is hacking and coughing like mad, all of it dry as hell.

There’s no weed smell.

I’m going to catch this fucking thing. While unhoused, without healthcare, in hostile territory, without any way to leave (can’t travel with the fucking virus). Fuck me.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Fujikoma on May 18, 2020, 04:29:20 am
I mean, the upside is you could be asymptiomatic the entire time... people continually hock up a lung in the homeless shelters I've stayed at, doesn't mean they have COVID-19, does mean they need a better social safety net (and less tobacco). Real downside is you could spread the thing with zero symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 18, 2020, 07:00:09 am
Here’s depressing for you:

I managed to travel across the fucking country without catching the plague. I have been staying in a hotel to isolate. And they put me in a room with a shared doorway to another room. Next room tonight: person is hacking and coughing like mad, all of it dry as hell.

There’s no weed smell.

I’m going to catch this fucking thing. While unhoused, without healthcare, in hostile territory, without any way to leave (can’t travel with the fucking virus). Fuck me.

 :sad: I'm almost certainly going to do so as well. My fam has pretty much decided that the Wisconsin supreme court overruling gov Evers' order means there's no threat, even as I explained the meaning of the R0 figure in context of bars packed FULL of reveling imbeciles. Really I was in it, this whole isolation thing, to protect my dad who has like 6 comorbidities and just today turned 71 initially. In that time I have come to such a state of things that I care not at all if he, I, my fool brothers, or any of my immediate family gets a date with Rona and dies horribly or is crippled for the rest of their shortened ass life. I want to move, anywhere but Wisconsin will do, but do not currently have anywhere to go nor the means to get there. I'm just biding my time and proceeding with several Operations in my interest and to my taste online and spiritually.

Right now I'm just binging on Star Trek Discovery and hoping I get to see them drop the third season before I eventually depart this dumpster fire of a world one way or another. My one caveat is that I won't do myself unless it's necessary for the sake of protecting others in some immediate life or death way. I am giving some STRONG consideration to settling a few scores as things go, but don't see much of a point as nature and ever more unkind circumstance will surely do worse than I ever could to those that may deserve a bit of existential adjustment in my eyes.

And now back to Cosmic horror Murder pron in Space! :ECH:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on May 18, 2020, 01:26:45 pm
it's every man for himself

it always has been
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 18, 2020, 02:37:06 pm
it's every man for himself

it always has been

No, it's not.

and

No, it hasn't.

But I can certainly get along without the fuckwits that think so.  :digtbk2:
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Fujikoma on May 18, 2020, 08:43:44 pm
If it was truly every man for himself the social distancing would be adequate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on May 18, 2020, 10:08:24 pm
I think the failure of social distancing is why its every man for himself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 18, 2020, 11:12:59 pm
I think the failure of social distancing is why its every man for himself.

Still idiotic. If I was the captain of a ship at sea and any memeber of the crew even breathed this I would have them stripped of everything they didn't make themselves from materials they procured personally, set naked in a dinghy, and towed about 20 feet behind the ship with orders that nobody help that fool in any way on pain of death. Putting their money where their mouth is so to speak. Were I subject to law It would be until they abjectly recant at which point they get gagged in the brig and remanded for mutiny once at port. If I smell even a whiff of  intent to actual mutiny or were subject to only my own law at sea it would be until they die of exposure and thirst to set an example. The virus can only be mitigated by disciplined action, and I can do nothing about that, but were it my call I would prove the concept  of "every man for themself" WRONG in no uncertain terms. Everybody's life depends on cooperation, everywhere, all the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on May 19, 2020, 12:42:58 am
you are not captain of the ship.

I literally just had to throw somebody out of my office (where there is a sign on the door that says, basically, "stay out unless you absolutely positively need to talk to me face to face" - this is my phone number, you can call me on my radio, lets try zoom or email).  This person has not worn a mask since day one.  He literally barged right in - yelling "what are you gonna do now? now that the lock down is being lifted?"

and you're telling me it's not every man for himself?
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Fujikoma on May 19, 2020, 01:35:52 am
It's hitting the crisis point, where there's a lot of people who don't understand what every man for himself means, and yet it's getting close to necessary. Can see that in the stupid protests with rifles of governers' orders... yeah... I believe you had to throw that dude out because some people just feel the need to feel powerful in the moment when in the grand scheme of things, they're powerless, which is how they've always been but now they want to start a fuss... Fuck 'em, put 'em in the death boat and watch them suffer.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Fujikoma on May 19, 2020, 01:43:37 am
I suppose the upside, if there is any, is that any armed insurrection that they manage, assuming it even succeeds, is going to be short-lived. They will rue the day, and I seriously hope there's a Hell so they can rue it there. I happen to believe there is, so maybe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 19, 2020, 02:05:11 am
you are not captain of the ship.

I literally just had to throw somebody out of my office (where there is a sign on the door that says, basically, "stay out unless you absolutely positively need to talk to me face to face" - this is my phone number, you can call me on my radio, lets try zoom or email).  This person has not worn a mask since day one.  He literally barged right in - yelling "what are you gonna do now? now that the lock down is being lifted?"

and you're telling me it's not every man for himself?
It's an illustration. The very concept of "every man for themself" is a deadly thought infection and HAS to be cauterized, hard, in a survival scenario.

The arsebiscuit is displaying the very attitude you are advocating for, yet seem to blame him for, yet use to justify the concept.. This pretty much proves the WHOLE point of the illustration.

I have no control over how things will play out, yet giving in to panic and losing all concern for other people IS something I can choose not to do and encourage others to fight the impulse to, even in an apparently, or truly, hopeless situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 19, 2020, 02:08:26 am
it's every man for himself

it always has been

Hey admins can I get a thread split from this post forward and have it appended to my Unlimited garbage thread please? It's entirely beside the point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 19, 2020, 06:09:08 am
Whether this gets moved or not, a friend sent me a replacement for my old big fucking 3M half mask respirator today. I can only assume it had been laying around since nowhere is selling these things in less than 100pc lots.

I’m going to break open the filters after a couple days of intermittent use and see if I can replace them with washable fabric filters. Also replacing the outflow valve with a fabric piece to keep everyone else safe, though I’ll be fine till I can source that fabric due to the design (directs exhalations downward).

About 70% of this thing bringing me happiness is being back on my rivethead industrial bullshit in public. I’m just missing my fucking stupid welding goggles and the spike-studded olive and black hoodie I had when I went to see God Module live. And now I have a dumb mall ninja larper sling bag, which I didn’t have before, so I’m almost okay with just having the mask.



ETA: realizing this is almost better suited to OB the way I wrote it.

To be clear: The primary goal with this is to have an awesome mask that does a good job at protecting myself and others from COVID. I was fortunate to have a friend who had access to one of these fuckers since I lost my last one in Boston.

Half mask respirators as a general rule, it must be said, are really fucking bad at doing the job they need to for a pandemic. No eye protection, valved outflow (meaning unfiltered meaning you can be spreading), and filters that become dangerous to use after a certain time in active use, regardless of the safety of the environments they were used in.

I’m only using this because I have it now so why not, and because I learned the rules on how to take care of and use a respirator, and finally because I intend to modify it for safety. If you find one for sale, I don’t recommend you buy it unless you want to read the microscopic print instructions, memorize the safety warnings, and take on a minor project involving disassembling things that aren’t user serviceable and putting them back together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on May 19, 2020, 06:52:21 am
Whether this gets moved or not, a friend sent me a replacement for my old big fucking 3M half mask respirator today. I can only assume it had been laying around since nowhere is selling these things in less than 100pc lots.

I’m going to break open the filters after a couple days of intermittent use and see if I can replace them with washable fabric filters. Also replacing the outflow valve with a fabric piece to keep everyone else safe, though I’ll be fine till I can source that fabric due to the design (directs exhalations downward).

About 70% of this thing bringing me happiness is being back on my rivethead industrial bullshit in public. I’m just missing my fucking stupid welding goggles and the spike-studded olive and black hoodie I had when I went to see God Module live. And now I have a dumb mall ninja larper sling bag, which I didn’t have before, so I’m almost okay with just having the mask.



ETA: realizing this is almost better suited to OB the way I wrote it.

To be clear: The primary goal with this is to have an awesome mask that does a good job at protecting myself and others from COVID. I was fortunate to have a friend who had access to one of these fuckers since I lost my last one in Boston.

Half mask respirators as a general rule, it must be said, are really fucking bad at doing the job they need to for a pandemic. No eye protection, valved outflow (meaning unfiltered meaning you can be spreading), and filters that become dangerous to use after a certain time in active use, regardless of the safety of the environments they were used in.

I’m only using this because I have it now so why not, and because I learned the rules on how to take care of and use a respirator, and finally because I intend to modify it for safety. If you find one for sale, I don’t recommend you buy it unless you want to read the microscopic print instructions, memorize the safety warnings, and take on a minor project involving disassembling things that aren’t user serviceable and putting them back together.

I've heard coffee filters are good improvised material for disposable filters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 19, 2020, 10:04:35 am
Disposable is the opposite of the goal here, and the tale I’ve been hearing is that you need at least two layers of T-shirt cloth and possibly more for an effective filter. (A friend making masks has been using full T shirt sleeves with a third layer stuck inside.)

Besides, coffee filters are bulky and fragile: they need to be packed carefully and take up a lot of space. Nine small cloth patches (3 sets of 2 inflow filters and one outflow filter) will fit in just about anything and are practically indestructible in ordinary travel and usage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on May 19, 2020, 10:41:12 am
Disposable is the opposite of the goal here, and the tale I’ve been hearing is that you need at least two layers of T-shirt cloth and possibly more for an effective filter. (A friend making masks has been using full T shirt sleeves with a third layer stuck inside.)

Besides, coffee filters are bulky and fragile: they need to be packed carefully and take up a lot of space. Nine small cloth patches (3 sets of 2 inflow filters and one outflow filter) will fit in just about anything and are practically indestructible in ordinary travel and usage.

There seem to exist reusable coffee filters, but I do not know how easy it is to find them. Idk, its the best I could think of.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on May 19, 2020, 11:11:24 am
double layer of material with a spacer will do. Thin material + Thick Cotton + thin material is what we made  but if you could put a small air gap in by raising the outermost layer off the inner that would be effective enough.

That or go full Immortan Joe on it, and pass the air throw bellows and a water filtration unit
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on May 19, 2020, 12:22:51 pm
Filtrete brand Hepa Air filters can be disassembled and fashioned into filters.  To my understanding this is the best DIY option.  Be careful as some Hepa filters have fiber glass in them.  You don't want to breathe that shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on May 19, 2020, 07:44:04 pm
Half my crew went down yesterday and today.  They've been tested.  Waiting for the results.

It's worth mentioning that I have been working in very close proximity to these meat bags.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on May 19, 2020, 07:58:38 pm
yuck - good luck - hope they get a passing grade.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Q. G. Pennyworth on May 20, 2020, 01:23:31 am
Filtrete brand Hepa Air filters can be disassembled and fashioned into filters.  To my understanding this is the best DIY option.  Be careful as some Hepa filters have fiber glass in them.  You don't want to breathe that shit.

DO NOT USE HEPA FILTERS. THAT SHIT IS FULL OF NONSENSE YOU DO NOT WANT.
https://www.filtrete.com/3M/en_US/filtrete/home-tips/full-story/~/coronavirus-and-important-things-to-know-about-airborne-particles/?storyid=d69e7735-c02c-46d2-9c8a-ae23372934ac BOTTOM OF THE PAGE
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on May 20, 2020, 01:51:07 pm
Filtrete brand Hepa Air filters can be disassembled and fashioned into filters.  To my understanding this is the best DIY option.  Be careful as some Hepa filters have fiber glass in them.  You don't want to breathe that shit.

DO NOT USE HEPA FILTERS. THAT SHIT IS FULL OF NONSENSE YOU DO NOT WANT.
https://www.filtrete.com/3M/en_US/filtrete/home-tips/full-story/~/coronavirus-and-important-things-to-know-about-airborne-particles/?storyid=d69e7735-c02c-46d2-9c8a-ae23372934ac BOTTOM OF THE PAGE
I hear what your saying and thanks for pointing that out.  It is my personal opinion that they are simply putting a disclaimer there to protect themselves from any potential legal liability should someone make a mask with their product.  It is also my personal opinion that using a hepa air filter insert in a cloth face mask (as long as it does not contain fiberglass) is not harmful.  It is also my personal opinion that a hepa air filter, while not as good as N95, works better than any textile fabric.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 20, 2020, 02:33:36 pm
Filtrete brand Hepa Air filters can be disassembled and fashioned into filters.  To my understanding this is the best DIY option.  Be careful as some Hepa filters have fiber glass in them.  You don't want to breathe that shit.

DO NOT USE HEPA FILTERS. THAT SHIT IS FULL OF NONSENSE YOU DO NOT WANT.
https://www.filtrete.com/3M/en_US/filtrete/home-tips/full-story/~/coronavirus-and-important-things-to-know-about-airborne-particles/?storyid=d69e7735-c02c-46d2-9c8a-ae23372934ac BOTTOM OF THE PAGE
I hear what your saying and thanks for pointing that out.  It is my personal opinion that they are simply putting a disclaimer there to protect themselves from any potential legal liability should someone make a mask with their product.  It is also my personal opinion that using a hepa air filter insert in a cloth face mask (as long as it does not contain fiberglass) is not harmful.  It is also my personal opinion that a hepa air filter, while not as good as N95, works better than any textile fabric.

It is a fact that every now and then someone gets fucked right up or dies from acting on personal opinion. Guess we shall see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on May 20, 2020, 02:39:25 pm
Filtrete brand Hepa Air filters can be disassembled and fashioned into filters.  To my understanding this is the best DIY option.  Be careful as some Hepa filters have fiber glass in them.  You don't want to breathe that shit.

DO NOT USE HEPA FILTERS. THAT SHIT IS FULL OF NONSENSE YOU DO NOT WANT.
https://www.filtrete.com/3M/en_US/filtrete/home-tips/full-story/~/coronavirus-and-important-things-to-know-about-airborne-particles/?storyid=d69e7735-c02c-46d2-9c8a-ae23372934ac BOTTOM OF THE PAGE
I hear what your saying and thanks for pointing that out.  It is my personal opinion that they are simply putting a disclaimer there to protect themselves from any potential legal liability should someone make a mask with their product.  It is also my personal opinion that using a hepa air filter insert in a cloth face mask (as long as it does not contain fiberglass) is not harmful.  It is also my personal opinion that a hepa air filter, while not as good as N95, works better than any textile fabric.

It is a fact that every now and then someone gets fucked right up or dies from acting on personal opinion. Guess we shall see.
this is true
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Q. G. Pennyworth on May 20, 2020, 06:11:31 pm
Those filters have fiberglass, you absolute fuckwad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on May 20, 2020, 06:16:36 pm
IF FIBERGLASS CAN INSULATE AN ATTIC, IT SURE AS HELL CAN INSULATE A FACE


BTW I AM NOW SELLING ASBESTOS FACE MASKS AT A ...SOMEWHAT REASONABLE RATE
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Q. G. Pennyworth on May 20, 2020, 06:24:38 pm
IF FIBERGLASS CAN INSULATE AN ATTIC, IT SURE AS HELL CAN INSULATE A FACE


BTW I AM NOW SELLING ASBESTOS FACE MASKS AT A ...SOMEWHAT REASONABLE RATE

At least your face won't catch fire!
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on May 20, 2020, 07:11:10 pm
Those filters have fiberglass, you absolute fuckwad.

I legit thought filtrete filters didn't contain fiberglass.  I swear I researched it and confirmed that before purchasing a filtrete filter. 
If you notice in my original post, I said "some filters contain fiberglass.  you don't want to breath that shit"

I thank you for pointing out the danger of fiberglass in filtrete filters, so now I am re-researching to confirm that the filter I bought indeed, does not contain fiberglass.  I admit that I am now having a hard time confirming 100% that the filter I purchased doesn't have fiberglass in it.

I have found some Filtrete brand filters that 100% do not contain fiberglass.  It looks like Honeywell also makes some strictly polypropylene HEPA filters.  I have also found some information indicating that even if your HEPA filter does contain fiberglass, it is not that dangerous.  I am an essential worker who cannot work from home.  There's no more N95 masks.  I'm simply trying to make the best of the situation with what I have.

So, I appreciate you pointing out the risk and I will continue to try to make sure I'm not using a HEPA filter with fiberglass in it, but you don't have to be a dick about it.

https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)56140-6/fulltext (https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)56140-6/fulltext)
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/hepa-filters-make-diy-face-masks-covid-coronavirus/ (https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/hepa-filters-make-diy-face-masks-covid-coronavirus/)
https://news.gatech.edu/2020/04/06/filtration-engineers-offer-advice-do-it-yourself-face-masks (https://news.gatech.edu/2020/04/06/filtration-engineers-offer-advice-do-it-yourself-face-masks)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 20, 2020, 07:45:23 pm
Those filters have fiberglass, you absolute fuckwad.

I legit thought filtrete filters didn't contain fiberglass.  I swear I researched it and confirmed that before purchasing a filtrete filter. 
If you notice in my original post, I said "some filters contain fiberglass.  you don't want to breath that shit"

I thank you for pointing out the danger of fiberglass in filtrete filters, so now I am re-researching to confirm that the filter I bought indeed, does not contain fiberglass.  I admit that I am now having a hard time confirming 100% that the filter I purchased doesn't have fiberglass in it.

I have found some Filtrete brand filters that 100% do not contain fiberglass.  It looks like Honeywell also makes some strictly polypropylene HEPA filters.  I have also found some information indicating that even if your HEPA filter does contain fiberglass, it is not that dangerous.  I am an essential worker who cannot work from home.  There's no more N95 masks.  I'm simply trying to make the best of the situation with what I have.

So, I appreciate you pointing out the risk and I will continue to try to make sure I'm not using a HEPA filter with fiberglass in it, but you don't have to be a dick about it.

https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)56140-6/fulltext (https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)56140-6/fulltext)
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/hepa-filters-make-diy-face-masks-covid-coronavirus/ (https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/hepa-filters-make-diy-face-masks-covid-coronavirus/)
https://news.gatech.edu/2020/04/06/filtration-engineers-offer-advice-do-it-yourself-face-masks (https://news.gatech.edu/2020/04/06/filtration-engineers-offer-advice-do-it-yourself-face-masks)

Don't forget eye protection. The droplets touch your eyes it's as good as done. Might as well swish the virus around in your sinuses.

Sealsed goggles are ideal, but ANY splash guard like common safety glasses will be better than nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 20, 2020, 07:46:29 pm
IF FIBERGLASS CAN INSULATE AN ATTIC, IT SURE AS HELL CAN INSULATE A FACE


BTW I AM NOW SELLING ASBESTOS FACE MASKS AT A ...SOMEWHAT REASONABLE RATE

At least your face won't catch fire!

GODDAMNIT CRAMULUS!! No adverts or solicitations on my thread unless I get a steep cut!! :argh!:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on May 20, 2020, 08:01:24 pm
Those filters have fiberglass, you absolute fuckwad.

I legit thought filtrete filters didn't contain fiberglass.  I swear I researched it and confirmed that before purchasing a filtrete filter. 
If you notice in my original post, I said "some filters contain fiberglass.  you don't want to breath that shit"

I thank you for pointing out the danger of fiberglass in filtrete filters, so now I am re-researching to confirm that the filter I bought indeed, does not contain fiberglass.  I admit that I am now having a hard time confirming 100% that the filter I purchased doesn't have fiberglass in it.

I have found some Filtrete brand filters that 100% do not contain fiberglass.  It looks like Honeywell also makes some strictly polypropylene HEPA filters.  I have also found some information indicating that even if your HEPA filter does contain fiberglass, it is not that dangerous.  I am an essential worker who cannot work from home.  There's no more N95 masks.  I'm simply trying to make the best of the situation with what I have.

So, I appreciate you pointing out the risk and I will continue to try to make sure I'm not using a HEPA filter with fiberglass in it, but you don't have to be a dick about it.

https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)56140-6/fulltext (https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)56140-6/fulltext)
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/hepa-filters-make-diy-face-masks-covid-coronavirus/ (https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/hepa-filters-make-diy-face-masks-covid-coronavirus/)
https://news.gatech.edu/2020/04/06/filtration-engineers-offer-advice-do-it-yourself-face-masks (https://news.gatech.edu/2020/04/06/filtration-engineers-offer-advice-do-it-yourself-face-masks)

Don't forget eye protection. The droplets touch your eyes it's as good as done. Might as well swish the virus around in your sinuses.

Sealsed goggles are ideal, but ANY splash guard like common safety glasses will be better than nothing.

Motorcycle goggles and a bandana... wait a minute stop pushing your dieslepunk agenda
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on May 20, 2020, 08:37:59 pm
Those filters have fiberglass, you absolute fuckwad.

I legit thought filtrete filters didn't contain fiberglass.  I swear I researched it and confirmed that before purchasing a filtrete filter. 
If you notice in my original post, I said "some filters contain fiberglass.  you don't want to breath that shit"

I thank you for pointing out the danger of fiberglass in filtrete filters, so now I am re-researching to confirm that the filter I bought indeed, does not contain fiberglass.  I admit that I am now having a hard time confirming 100% that the filter I purchased doesn't have fiberglass in it.

I have found some Filtrete brand filters that 100% do not contain fiberglass.  It looks like Honeywell also makes some strictly polypropylene HEPA filters.  I have also found some information indicating that even if your HEPA filter does contain fiberglass, it is not that dangerous.  I am an essential worker who cannot work from home.  There's no more N95 masks.  I'm simply trying to make the best of the situation with what I have.

So, I appreciate you pointing out the risk and I will continue to try to make sure I'm not using a HEPA filter with fiberglass in it, but you don't have to be a dick about it.

https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)56140-6/fulltext (https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)56140-6/fulltext)
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/hepa-filters-make-diy-face-masks-covid-coronavirus/ (https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/hepa-filters-make-diy-face-masks-covid-coronavirus/)
https://news.gatech.edu/2020/04/06/filtration-engineers-offer-advice-do-it-yourself-face-masks (https://news.gatech.edu/2020/04/06/filtration-engineers-offer-advice-do-it-yourself-face-masks)

Don't forget eye protection. The droplets touch your eyes it's as good as done. Might as well swish the virus around in your sinuses.

Sealsed goggles are ideal, but ANY splash guard like common safety glasses will be better than nothing.

Yes safety glasses are required at all times.


This is what I really want:
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSScSYNjDhdazvJEdeN1HgeO74Y5fG0aBniBbf-u_Y7hYsibDCe&usqp=CAU)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on May 20, 2020, 08:48:28 pm
Those filters have fiberglass, you absolute fuckwad.

You are busy being factual in 2020.  Let me know how that works out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on May 20, 2020, 08:49:03 pm
IF FIBERGLASS CAN INSULATE AN ATTIC, IT SURE AS HELL CAN INSULATE A FACE


BTW I AM NOW SELLING ASBESTOS FACE MASKS AT A ...SOMEWHAT REASONABLE RATE

:mittens:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on May 20, 2020, 08:51:15 pm
So yeah.

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 20, 2020, 09:09:39 pm
Those filters have fiberglass, you absolute fuckwad.

I legit thought filtrete filters didn't contain fiberglass.  I swear I researched it and confirmed that before purchasing a filtrete filter. 
If you notice in my original post, I said "some filters contain fiberglass.  you don't want to breath that shit"

I thank you for pointing out the danger of fiberglass in filtrete filters, so now I am re-researching to confirm that the filter I bought indeed, does not contain fiberglass.  I admit that I am now having a hard time confirming 100% that the filter I purchased doesn't have fiberglass in it.

I have found some Filtrete brand filters that 100% do not contain fiberglass.  It looks like Honeywell also makes some strictly polypropylene HEPA filters.  I have also found some information indicating that even if your HEPA filter does contain fiberglass, it is not that dangerous.  I am an essential worker who cannot work from home.  There's no more N95 masks.  I'm simply trying to make the best of the situation with what I have.

So, I appreciate you pointing out the risk and I will continue to try to make sure I'm not using a HEPA filter with fiberglass in it, but you don't have to be a dick about it.

https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)56140-6/fulltext (https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(16)56140-6/fulltext)
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/hepa-filters-make-diy-face-masks-covid-coronavirus/ (https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/hepa-filters-make-diy-face-masks-covid-coronavirus/)
https://news.gatech.edu/2020/04/06/filtration-engineers-offer-advice-do-it-yourself-face-masks (https://news.gatech.edu/2020/04/06/filtration-engineers-offer-advice-do-it-yourself-face-masks)

Don't forget eye protection. The droplets touch your eyes it's as good as done. Might as well swish the virus around in your sinuses.

Sealsed goggles are ideal, but ANY splash guard like common safety glasses will be better than nothing.

Motorcycle goggles and a bandana... wait a minute stop pushing your dieslepunk agenda

 :regret:

I'm more of a Plague Doctor type myself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on May 20, 2020, 09:55:23 pm
So yeah.

I wonder what N95 masks are made of?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on May 20, 2020, 10:15:33 pm
Are any masks FDA approved as a food?


wait -- that's a stupid question. sorry.


are any foods approved as face masks? like cabbage or something
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on May 20, 2020, 10:41:19 pm
The blackmarket acupuncturist who I have been seeing in her secret office in the sewer since the lockdown also provides holistic medicines and says if you perforate holes in a cabage leaf you can breath through that
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on May 21, 2020, 03:30:01 am
So yeah.

I wonder what N95 masks are made of?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melt_blowing

Non-woven polymers.  Emphasis on the "non-woven" bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on May 22, 2020, 04:29:05 am
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 25, 2020, 04:32:39 am
I mean, we all knew this. But still.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/husband-of-reopen-nc-leader-willing-to-kill-people-in-resistance-to-emergency-orders/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

So, I mean, if someone tells you to take off your mask, consider that you could be killed if you don’t now. Great world we live in.

I’m fortunate my giant bulky respirator comes with “Acceptable” excuses. Medical masks don’t come with “certified badass, mid-boss in an action-horror video game” baked in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on May 25, 2020, 06:41:40 am
I mean, we all knew this. But still.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/husband-of-reopen-nc-leader-willing-to-kill-people-in-resistance-to-emergency-orders/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

So, I mean, if someone tells you to take off your mask, consider that you could be killed if you don’t now. Great world we live in.

I’m fortunate my giant bulky respirator comes with “Acceptable” excuses. Medical masks don’t come with “certified badass, mid-boss in an action-horror video game” baked in.

Definitely not domestic terrorism :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 25, 2020, 06:49:01 am
No, because it’s not about scaring people, it’s about scaring the government, who are definitely not people. And people who are not government will know, and no one will misunderstand the message on either side and there will never be a case of mistaken identity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on May 25, 2020, 02:44:14 pm
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

The CDC updated its planning scenarios--the modeling is now based on data through April 29th. To put that in context, this is the model they are currently offering to governments and hospitals to plan how the disease will affect the population. The website clarifies:

Quote
The parameters in the scenarios:

-Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
-Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
-Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.

They break the model into 5 scenarios. Scenarios 1-4 are different assumptions about the disease, ranging from low to high pessimism (scenario 1 assumes low transmission, scenario 4 is a worst case). Scenario 5 is based on the actual data, so it's the current "best guess".

A lot more detail about this on the page I linked. okay, ready for the data?

(https://i.imgur.com/N8o7u4q.png)

So if you're caught the disease, and you are displaying symptoms, your chance of death is 0.4%

If you're under 50, your chance is more like %0.05 (1 in 500)

If you're over 65 and have a symptomatic case, your chance of death is much higher, but still less than 1 out of 50 - 1.3%.

Not nearly as bad as the original estimates. That's a relief, right?


Right below that, the chart states that the hospitalization rate for people with a symptomatic case, and are under age 50 is 1.7%.

It also says that aabout 35% of cases are asymptomatic. But asymptomatic cases are still definitely infectious.



If this can be believed, it's good news.

I think these data have a high risk of bad reporting though. Brace yourself I have a feeling we're gonna see a lot of right-wing gaslighting saying "this was never a big deal, we gave up our freedom for nothing". (example (https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/))

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: rong on May 25, 2020, 03:20:19 pm
Cram - I think one of us is misreading the chart.  It looks to me that age 0-49 case 5 chance of death is 0.05%

I also think this is good news and it is why I support reopening the economy while still encouraging PPE and social distancing.

It would be nice to have more information about the effects on survivors.  I mean some people survive throwing themselves on a grenade.  What percentage of people spend 2 weeks on death's doorstep?  How long are most people sick for?  Any flu I've ever had really only lasts a couple days and I pretty much bounce right back.  Is this disease similar?  I think 2 weeks of severe flu would have me wishing for the sweet release of death.

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on May 25, 2020, 03:27:16 pm
Cram - I think one of us is misreading the chart.  It looks to me that age 0-49 case 5 chance of death is 0.05%

oh you're right, thanks - I updated my post
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 25, 2020, 03:38:35 pm
I will wait for someone who is skilled at this sort of analysis to comment before I say I’m certain, but my gut feeling is that this is fucking garbage. The numbers look like shit.

Quick fake math, but it will do the job:

x * 0.1% = x / 1000
Current US population: roughly 300 mil
Current COVID death count: roughly 100k
300m/1000=300k
Therefore
300m * 0.4% = 1.2m
Therefore, ~10% of the entire US population has been infected
If I’m reading my timeline right, this requires a double digit R0 or that the virus does not respect quarantine or isolation measures at all
And we know that both of these are false because of Vietnam, Korea and Japan.
(Also; if you talk to ten people a day, statistically one of them is or has been infected.)

The numbers stink. Hopefully someone can tell me I’m wrong, but...



FAKE EDIT:

Also, all reports suggest infected individuals stay fucking knocked down from the virus for like 7 weeks in “mild” cases. Like, no heavy lifting, going up or down stairs means it’s nap time, have to have someone home at all times in case your fucking heart stops. For 6 or 7 weeks. For a “mild case”, with no hospitalization.

From what I have heard, severe to critical cases have no record of patients making a full recovery to date. They aren’t infectious, but they are in constant full body pain and can barely move under their own power.

I’ll grab sources later if I need to, but a quick google search will show this isn’t a single source saying this, it’s well accepted fact.

I do not support reopening a goddamned thing right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on May 25, 2020, 04:25:50 pm
I'm having trouble following the math you posted. My 8th grade math teacher is cringing at me (from HELL). But keep in mind that 0.4% (less than half of one percent) isn't the overall death rate, it's the death rate of symptomatic cases. 35% of the overall cases seem to be asymptomatic.


The antibody testing in NYC has been interesting, too: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-new-york-antibody-test-f4fbed78-646f-4b46-90b8-5e8ca75380e4.html

Quote
As a whole, 19.9% of New York City has tested positive for antibodies, the preliminary study found. At 27.6%, the Bronx is reporting the highest rate of infection
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on May 25, 2020, 04:33:30 pm
Also, all reports suggest infected individuals stay fucking knocked down from the virus for like 7 weeks in “mild” cases. Like, no heavy lifting, going up or down stairs means it’s nap time, have to have someone home at all times in case your fucking heart stops. For 6 or 7 weeks. For a “mild case”, with no hospitalization.

My friends that have had (all healthy people in their 30s) it say it was like 2 weeks of hell and then ~2 weeks of weakness / feeling crappy but functional.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on May 25, 2020, 04:38:02 pm
Assume that the listed worst case of a 1% fatality rate reflects the current situation, and use these (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) numbers for the USA (99,381 deaths, 1,689,727 active cases).

Assuming that infected people die instantly, we would expect 99381/.01 = 9.94 million symptomatically infected.  (The time lag means the actual number of infected will be higher).  This is already a horrendous mismatch with the 1.69M active case number above, but let's keep going.

Assuming 35% asymptomatic cases, the total number of cases would be (9.94M)/(1-0.35) = 15.3M.

The US population is 331M, so your current infection rate is 4.6%.

If we use the best case fatality rate of 0.2%, then you should have five times as many infected, or ~23% of the population.

Conclusion:  Either the numbers or some of my assumptions are wrong.

(ETA: if we use .4%, like altered did, the current infection rate should be 9.2%).
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 25, 2020, 09:29:30 pm
Assume that the listed worst case of a 1% fatality rate reflects the current situation, and use these (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) numbers for the USA (99,381 deaths, 1,689,727 active cases).

Assuming that infected people die instantly, we would expect 99381/.01 = 9.94 million symptomatically infected.  (The time lag means the actual number of infected will be higher).  This is already a horrendous mismatch with the 1.69M active case number above, but let's keep going.

Assuming 35% asymptomatic cases, the total number of cases would be (9.94M)/(1-0.35) = 15.3M.

The US population is 331M, so your current infection rate is 4.6%.

If we use the best case fatality rate of 0.2%, then you should have five times as many infected, or ~23% of the population.

Conclusion:  Either the numbers or some of my assumptions are wrong.

(ETA: if we use .4%, like altered did, the current infection rate should be 9.2%).

I’m really glad to see that my skills at really rough low effort “get in the ballpark” math are still pretty good.

And unhappy but more solidly convinced that this fucking thing is a nightmare that will not end. Things have been changed, probably forever, certainly for as long into the future as I can bear to look.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 25, 2020, 10:30:49 pm
Also, just had another realization about those numbers.

That case fatality rate is pure fucking fantasy.

Very simple basis to say that:

“The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to news reports.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Unfortunately...

“CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated [...] 34,200 deaths from influenza.”
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

“On average, flu season lasts about 13 weeks. It will usually end by April, but in some years it can linger into May.”
https://www.verywellhealth.com/flu-season-from-start-to-peak-and-end-2633835

However....

97,669 COVID deaths in the US
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html#2019coronavirus-summary

First COVID case in the US on Jan 21st
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.amp.html

So 125 days since infection began in the US. 125/7=~17 weeks of “COVID season”.

Simple math here: divide 34k by 13 for flu deaths per week

~2615

and 97k by 17 for COVID deaths per week

~5707.

Oops. That looks fucking way worse than the flu. And we don’t fucking wear masks or socially distance for the goddamn flu.

Confident those numbers are horseshit now.


EDIT: Fixed some math. I woke up minutes ago.

EDIT2: Again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 26, 2020, 06:42:23 am
Anyway, it’s not all bad news.

https://twitter.com/brennanspiegel/status/1265119535901732865?s=21 (Couldn’t get the fucking main link out of it, sorry.)

This is really really good, because it’s something that can be reacted to. A sudden spike in the water says a bunch of cases are coming down the pipe. If it’s related to causation, we can RAPIDLY prevent spread, like, wipe out the virus level prevention (ignoring animal reservoirs). If it’s not, we can allocate resources where they’ll be needed almost in real-time.

“Our water has the lowest levels it’s been at all month, we’ll send you some of these spare ventilators since you’re a few days away from a spike like whoa.”

That’s awesome news.

That said: This is still normal now forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on May 27, 2020, 12:49:05 am
Anyway, it’s not all bad news.

https://twitter.com/brennanspiegel/status/1265119535901732865?s=21 (https://twitter.com/brennanspiegel/status/1265119535901732865?s=21) (Couldn’t get the fucking main link out of it, sorry.)

This is really really good, because it’s something that can be reacted to. A sudden spike in the water says a bunch of cases are coming down the pipe. If it’s related to causation, we can RAPIDLY prevent spread, like, wipe out the virus level prevention (ignoring animal reservoirs). If it’s not, we can allocate resources where they’ll be needed almost in real-time.

“Our water has the lowest levels it’s been at all month, we’ll send you some of these spare ventilators since you’re a few days away from a spike like whoa.”

That’s awesome news.

That said: This is still normal now forever.


My first reaction: nah, it’s not causative, that’s just hysteresis :lol:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 29, 2020, 02:25:04 pm
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1266335781775380480?s=21

Help. Reality is breaking down. It’s all turning into a Warren Ellis comic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on May 29, 2020, 02:32:44 pm
yeah... what? the simulation is really coming apart at the seams right now

it's like all the processing power is being used in certain locations, so other places are getting weird
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 29, 2020, 03:04:42 pm
yeah... what? the simulation is really coming apart at the seams right now

it's like all the processing power is being used in certain locations, so other places are getting weird

I’m going to say that 2021 is a hoax. We clearly can’t make it through the year before they need to shut it all down to re-apply thermal paste to the processor and update the engine. Shit’s billions of years behind schedule, and missing countless important security fixes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: P3nT4gR4m on May 30, 2020, 02:11:33 pm
You telling me all of this is cos of celestial hackers, trying to get god to type in his bank details? Finally, a metaphysics I can get behind! :lulz:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 30, 2020, 11:34:04 pm
You telling me all of this is cos of celestial hackers, trying to get god to type in his bank details? Finally, a metaphysics I can get behind! :lulz:

Yeah, you know what, it fits my metaphysics, fuck it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Suu on May 31, 2020, 04:26:24 am
You telling me all of this is cos of celestial hackers, trying to get god to type in his bank details? Finally, a metaphysics I can get behind! :lulz:

Leave it to Pent for some proper explanation of all of this shit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on May 31, 2020, 04:40:26 am
yeah... what? the simulation is really coming apart at the seams right now

it's like all the processing power is being used in certain locations, so other places are getting weird

I’m going to say that 2021 is a hoax. We clearly can’t make it through the year before they need to shut it all down to re-apply thermal paste to the processor and update the engine. Shit’s billions of years behind schedule, and missing countless important security fixes.

OH MY FUCKING GOD I POSTED THIS YESTERDAY.

Since then we have had CHILD SOLDIERS in Georgia and NYPD running over protestors on camera. TWO precincts taken over by the people, one BURNED. They’re going live ammo in Tampa.

This dumb post about a monkey chewing on COVID test samples literally feels like a month old.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Freeky on June 02, 2020, 11:37:51 am

First COVID case in the US on Jan 21st
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.amp.html

So 125 days since infection began in the US. 125/7=~17 weeks of “COVID season”.


what if these numbers are short, timewise? i've heard the first covid case wasn't actually the first covid case, it was just the first one on record, but possibly had been in the US since late last year. i honestly have no idea where i got this information - possibly last week tonight, it's one of the few newsy-type things i ingest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on June 02, 2020, 11:58:10 am
Some what-ifs mean you can’t even make educated guesses. That’s one of them.

Using the best case data that we have (which the CDC has every reason to give us better if it exists) makes the CDCs numbers unrealistic. If they have reason to believe different, or if they have enough reason to want us to believe different, they can provide data that fits what they’re saying.

If there were earlier cases and they knew that but didn’t tell anyone, then the paper was released with unverifiable data that looks bad and discredits them.

Consider: There is no obvious reason for them to do that.

That what-if leaves a reality we can make sense of behind in favor of one we can’t understand.

If there weren’t earlier cases to the best of their knowledge, the data they presented was pure fiction. There is a clear reason for this: covering up how bad it is to push the “back to work, peasants” narrative that, it just so happens, they were pushing.

Occam’s razor suggests the latter, because it covers all the available evidence and explains everything. So.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Freeky on June 02, 2020, 12:10:18 pm
since (again, second- and thirdhand information that i heard from who the fuck knows where) the testing lab in washington state was firmly told to not test for it until someone did it against the instructions given, i would assume that's why they're pinning that as the first case, and the first day, because it's a verifiable instance and not conjecture. but not being able to do anything with this particular what-if makes sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on June 09, 2020, 02:37:38 pm
The WHO says: turns out asymptomatic carriers are not really spreading the disease. It does happen, but only rarely.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on June 09, 2020, 04:45:02 pm

The WHO says: turns out asymptomatic carriers are not really spreading the disease. It does happen, but only rarely.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html)

Because we only get to keep playing “the game” if the WHO does not intend to substantiate its own sense of agency (I’m trying to understand this notion of “Infinite Games,” don’t mind me)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on June 09, 2020, 04:50:13 pm
You telling me all of this is cos of celestial hackers, trying to get god to type in his bank details? Finally, a metaphysics I can get behind! :lulz:
:lulz: :lulz: :lulz:
(I had a retort, but John Malkovich unplugged my default network)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on June 09, 2020, 04:55:38 pm
The WHO says: turns out asymptomatic carriers are not really spreading the disease. It does happen, but only rarely.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

From what I understand, digging into the details, they mean fully asymptomatic carriers. Which does sound about right.

But the tricky thing with Covid-19 is the long incubation period for symptomatic carriers (who can take up to 12 days to display symptoms) alongside milder cases that are misidentified as cold symptoms, both of whom could be considered asymptomatic but are not really. And those two are, seemingly, just as virulent as ever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on June 09, 2020, 05:03:00 pm
Obama's former Acting Administrator for CMS has also raised some concerns (https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1270135499659923458) about this story.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on June 09, 2020, 05:18:39 pm
I mean, I suppose a fully asymptomatic person probably won’t be sneezing and leaking over everything: making the points of contact tracing less effective too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on June 09, 2020, 05:43:34 pm
The WHO says: turns out asymptomatic carriers are not really spreading the disease. It does happen, but only rarely.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

From what I understand, digging into the details, they mean fully asymptomatic carriers. Which does sound about right.

But the tricky thing with Covid-19 is the long incubation period for symptomatic carriers (who can take up to 12 days to display symptoms) alongside milder cases that are misidentified as cold symptoms, both of whom could be considered asymptomatic but are not really. And those two are, seemingly, just as virulent as ever.

yeah, and someone on my FB thread pointed out that the WHO conflates 'truly asymptomatic' and 'pre-symptomatic'...


Obama's former Acting Administrator for CMS has also raised some concerns (https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1270135499659923458) about this story.

thanks for that! super informative. Sad that it was too good to be true.




Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 09, 2020, 06:28:42 pm
Then there's that Bolsonaro asshole.

https://apnews.com/bd42a5a5b9abfc8a582a86af1dd7790a

Quote
On Friday, the federal Health Ministry took down a website that had showed daily, weekly and monthly figures on infections and deaths in Brazilian states. On Saturday, the site returned but the cumulative numbers of infections for states and the nation were no longer there. The site now shows only the numbers for the previous 24 hours.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro tweeted Saturday that disease totals are “not representative” of the country’s current situation. Public prosecutors announced an investigation into the Health Ministry’s justification for the change.

A Bolsonaro ally contended to the newspaper O Globo that at least some states had sent falsified data to the Health Ministry, implying that they were exaggerating the toll. Carlos Wizard, a businessman expected to assume a high-level post in the Health Ministry, said the federal government would conduct a review to determine a “more accurate”′ toll.

“The number we have today is fanciful or manipulated,” Wizard said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on June 09, 2020, 07:03:16 pm
(https://mennohenselmans.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Upper-Threshold-for-Resistance-Training-Volume-skeptical-face.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 09, 2020, 07:11:39 pm
Bolsonaro has been very upfront about his hatred for his people; none of this should be a surprise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 09, 2020, 07:11:57 pm
He is basically the Wish.com Trump.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on June 09, 2020, 10:59:10 pm
He's fucking terrible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 09, 2020, 11:36:50 pm
He is.

However, so is Arizona.  We are now at 76% bed utilization in our hospitals, with just a few ICU beds open, because the spike after reopening is worse than the "first wave" that never actually ended or even leveled out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 12, 2020, 05:13:41 pm
https://apnews.com/005e5d4f9a9ddaa5e8ef17f9c16d9dad

Quote
Atlantic City OKs booze on the Boardwalk to boost crowds
  :lulz:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on June 14, 2020, 09:15:41 pm
We have a mechanism for COVID.

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

I know a fair bit about endothelial disease (Marburg and Ebola were obsessions when I was 14) and I can say this tracks with all the symptoms. The ACE2 receptor point is also spot on. And furin is indeed ubiquitous in the body. The only thing I can’t check is if furin actually breaches the capsid and injects the RNA.

It doesn’t mention it, but it ESPECIALLY tracks with the gastrointestinal issues, because endothelial cells also line the deeper reaches of the gastrointestinal system, particularly the small intestine.

I would bet a fair few of these people who recover will have life long dietary problems similar to those caused by Crohn’s disease or nutritional deficiencies similar to those caused by chronic, untreated gluten intolerance: attacking the endothelial cells is the immediate mechanism behind both of those diseases.

This also makes it a lot less scary if true. We have options for this kind of thing. A lot of them, actually. Some have even been tested effectively with symptomatic care of Ebola and Marburg patients.

That said, it’s surprising it isn’t MORE deadly. This thing should be wiping humans off the map en masse. Endothelial disease is not a joke, it usually has double-digit mortality rates. Instead, it’s pretty well tolerated by most. Which makes me think there’s a third factor (ACE2 and furin are the first two) we have yet to consider.

Huh.

I wonder if furin is sequestered over time, so older people have more of it? I wonder if certain lifestyles can keep furin levels low enough to effectively stop symptomatic expression? This should have data that already exists, if you know where to look and what for. I don’t, but it’s a possible starting point toward defining who’s at real risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Junkenstein on June 14, 2020, 09:42:15 pm
Then there's that Bolsonaro asshole.

https://apnews.com/bd42a5a5b9abfc8a582a86af1dd7790a

Quote
On Friday, the federal Health Ministry took down a website that had showed daily, weekly and monthly figures on infections and deaths in Brazilian states. On Saturday, the site returned but the cumulative numbers of infections for states and the nation were no longer there. The site now shows only the numbers for the previous 24 hours.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro tweeted Saturday that disease totals are “not representative” of the country’s current situation. Public prosecutors announced an investigation into the Health Ministry’s justification for the change.

A Bolsonaro ally contended to the newspaper O Globo that at least some states had sent falsified data to the Health Ministry, implying that they were exaggerating the toll. Carlos Wizard, a businessman expected to assume a high-level post in the Health Ministry, said the federal government would conduct a review to determine a “more accurate”′ toll.

“The number we have today is fanciful or manipulated,” Wizard said.

Wizard.

I love it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Elder Iptuous on June 16, 2020, 01:44:13 pm
So, My fiance is from Brazil. I've been down there a few times now, and try to keep my finger on the pulse of their current events.
I am pleased to find that Brazil is the long lost brother of the United States.  I mean, we're not the same thing, but the resemblance in many respects is hilarious.  :lulz:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on June 16, 2020, 02:28:42 pm
yeah, my ex is from Brazil, been there too... long lost brother is a good way to put it. They have their own right wing oil-state media, their right wing autocrat who is only good at stomping on his own people, their own special brew of disenfranchised and often highly misinformed poor people... their anti-corruption efforts which somehow only managed to weed out the uncorrupt, their contentious public uprisings... it really seems like a bizarro-US sometimes.


those caipirinhas tho
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 16, 2020, 07:47:12 pm
yeah, my ex is from Brazil, been there too... long lost brother is a good way to put it. They have their own right wing oil-state media, their right wing autocrat who is only good at stomping on his own people, their own special brew of disenfranchised and often highly misinformed poor people... their anti-corruption efforts which somehow only managed to weed out the uncorrupt, their contentious public uprisings... it really seems like a bizarro-US sometimes.


those caipirinhas tho

They also as a nation really hate black folks, just as much of the USA does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Elder Iptuous on June 16, 2020, 08:07:06 pm
Yeah.  A real issue.  It's different in one way, however, because of the mixing that was more prevalent than here, so it seems they have more strata from what I've seen.
Also, I was at a history of slavery museum in Colombia, and learned that the average lifespan of the slaves in Brazil was 6 months after they were dragged off the boat.  Then after dying they were replaced.  As opposed to the States, where they were more e pensive and therefore kept as breeding stock.
I cant imagine that that would not cause a whole different flavor of psychic scarring in the population
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 16, 2020, 08:07:42 pm
Yeah.  A real issue.  It's different in one way, however, because of the mixing that was more prevalent than here, so it seems they have more strata from what I've seen.
Also, I was at a history of slavery museum in Colombia, and learned that the average lifespan of the slaves in Brazil was 6 months after they were dragged off the boat.  Then after dying they were replaced.  As opposed to the States, where they were more e pensive and therefore kept as breeding stock.
I cant imagine that that would not cause a whole different flavor of psychic scarring in the population

Yes.  And both countries have always feared payback.

And all the problems in both countries are all informed by the same things, with the same results.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on June 16, 2020, 08:18:01 pm
Another interesting tidbit about Brazil is how evangelicals have made inroads into the country's power structure. You'd think a place as nominally Catholic as Brazil might resist such Protestant intrusions more, but apparently not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 16, 2020, 08:24:08 pm
Another interesting tidbit about Brazil is how evangelicals have made inroads into the country's power structure. You'd think a place as nominally Catholic as Brazil might resist such Protestant intrusions more, but apparently not.

Historically-speaking, Catholicism as a 100% rate of producing evangelicals.  There are always people who want to hate even more than the church does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Elder Iptuous on June 16, 2020, 08:39:50 pm
Yeah. I was blown away at the number of Baptist churches I saw!
And they have the giant televangelist megachurches, too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on June 16, 2020, 08:46:21 pm
They also have police brutality that the US could only slaver over lustfully, they literally have a special kind of police for the slums that go in with lethal munitions, bomb squad armor and multiple fire teams, and are legally immune to prosecution over use of force. They are technically drug and gang enforcement but for all practical purposes their entire job description is depopulating neighborhoods of innocent people and burning them down.

I had a friend years and years back who once worked for that branch. He quit because of the nightmares, then killed himself about five years back, presumably for the same reason.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Elder Iptuous on June 16, 2020, 08:49:03 pm
They have a big budget shoot em up flick from Brazil called Tropo de Elite about them.
Not a bad movie.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on June 16, 2020, 08:52:33 pm

Ah yes, the famous BOPE (Batalhão de Operações Policiais Especiais)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on June 16, 2020, 08:53:10 pm

Ah yes, the famous BOPE (Batalhão de Operações Policiais Especiais)

That’s the one. The cops other cops aspire to be one day.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on June 16, 2020, 11:21:38 pm
Another interesting tidbit about Brazil is how evangelicals have made inroads into the country's power structure. You'd think a place as nominally Catholic as Brazil might resist such Protestant intrusions more, but apparently not.
Prosperity gospel will do that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 17, 2020, 12:40:42 am
Arizona is a hot fucking mess right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on June 17, 2020, 12:52:57 am
We are all going to get COVID. It’s almost a shame that the bloody cough hasn’t returned. I was hoping I could say I didn’t have to really worry about getting it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on June 19, 2020, 02:42:44 pm
As a note on death rate based on proportion of outcomes, "recovered" vs dead, the death rate is around 11% in the US.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It's about 9% world wide.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is the real way to measure the death rate. Percentage of deaths vs total cases is a BEST CASE SCENARIO and not actually clinically relevant as most of those cases are what you might call pending on actual outcome.

Based on the 11% outcome mortality that we have now in the US (while still nominally functional on infrastructure and medical systems/supply) the current 2,264,307 active and open cases will yield 249,073 deaths if there are no more infections, miraculously. Added to the 120,691 already confirmed dead we can actually count 369,764 US dead alone. That's as of this post. That is just the dead and no estimate of the folks disabled for life on a spectrum of severity.

By way of comparison for the record WW1 killed 116,516. That is less than a third of where we are at now, and these numbers WILL rise exponentially at the rate of the R0 covered above.

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on June 19, 2020, 03:13:26 pm
There's a risk of measurement error, in that we need all cases with outcomes to be reported.  A high proportion of cv-related deaths are likely to be reported, but what about people who had "mild" symptoms, tested positive, recovered, and didn't bother to check in?

The reason I note this, is that Saskatchewan's numbers are significantly different, at 649 resolved cases, with 636 recovered, and 13 dead (2% death rate).  Link (https://www.saskatchewan.ca/government/health-care-administration-and-provider-resources/treatment-procedures-and-guidelines/emerging-public-health-issues/2019-novel-coronavirus/cases-and-risk-of-covid-19-in-saskatchewan).

Now, this has its own statistical problems, since Saskatchewan has a small population, with a low infection rate; but because there are so few people involved, it's easier to keep track of them.

The number I'd like to know is:  Of the reported active cases, how many are "lapsed" (i.e., no new information in three or more weeks?)  If this is a large proportion, then the number of recoveries might be underreported.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on June 19, 2020, 03:28:02 pm

Today in Mexico:

-165k REPORTED cases
-19.7k deaths

Question: Do we really have 12% mortality case? Cause were not doing in no way at all massive testing.

There has been speculation that we have between 5x up 10x real cases.

5x real cases scenario: 825k cases, 20k deaths = 2% mortality
10x real cases scenario: 1,650k cases, 20k deahts = 1% mortality

Now if you add that Covid deaths sometimes get reported as atypical pneuomonia or whatever, we dont really know what is actually happening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 19, 2020, 03:29:47 pm

Today in Mexico:

-165k REPORTED cases
-19.7k deaths

Question: Do we really have 12% mortality case? Cause were not doing in no way at all massive testing.

There has been speculation that we have between 5x up 10x real cases.

5x real cases scenario: 825k cases, 20k deaths = 2% mortality
10x real cases scenario: 1,650k cases, 20k deahts = 1% mortality

Now if you add that Covid deaths sometimes get reported as atypical pneuomonia or whatever, we dont really know what is actually happening.

What's sad is that this is literally the first news of this out of Mexico that I have heard since you had two cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on June 19, 2020, 03:36:46 pm
There's a risk of measurement error, in that we need all cases with outcomes to be reported.  A high proportion of cv-related deaths are likely to be reported, but what about people who had "mild" symptoms, tested positive, recovered, and didn't bother to check in?

The reason I note this, is that Saskatchewan's numbers are significantly different, at 649 resolved cases, with 636 recovered, and 13 dead (2% death rate).  Link (https://www.saskatchewan.ca/government/health-care-administration-and-provider-resources/treatment-procedures-and-guidelines/emerging-public-health-issues/2019-novel-coronavirus/cases-and-risk-of-covid-19-in-saskatchewan).

Now, this has its own statistical problems, since Saskatchewan has a small population, with a low infection rate; but because there are so few people involved, it's easier to keep track of them.

The number I'd like to know is:  Of the reported active cases, how many are "lapsed" (i.e., no new information in three or more weeks?)  If this is a large proportion, then the number of recoveries might be underreported.

Looking at a particular outlier is all well and good, but the bigger picture would seem to be the best indicator of overall effect to me. I see little point in assigning an arbitrary "lapsed" time period on open cases and I'm not sure that it would significantly change anything. The fucker can go on for weeks going sometimes suddenly from mild to deadly symptoms in EXTREMELY unpredictable progression.

The asymptomatic and folks that otherwise never get tested are surely a factor that would revise he overall percentage down somewhat, but that is an unknown. What is known is that among the symptomatic that warranted a test and were found to be infected we have outcome data and it's... not good.

We can be sure to see 369,764 US dead and counting, a lot of the counting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: chaotic neutral observer on June 19, 2020, 04:06:28 pm
Looking at a particular outlier is all well and good, but the bigger picture would seem to be the best indicator of overall effect to me. I see little point in assigning an arbitrary "lapsed" time period on open cases and I'm not sure that it would significantly change anything. The fucker can go on for weeks going sometimes suddenly from mild to deadly symptoms in EXTREMELY unpredictable progression.
Three weeks was pretty arbitrary; it would be better to review cases with positive outcomes, and determine the time interval from when they were diagnosed, to the point when 90% of them had recovered.  (The 90% is arbitrary, too).  (Also, since we're only considering positive outcomes that were reported, we've introduced selection bias.  Oops).

We don't have all the pieces of the big picture.

The USA currently has 1.2M reported active cases.  Let's say that half of those were reported more than two months ago.  How many of them have probably recovered by now?  How would that affect the estimate of the death rate?  What if the number of active cases is significantly underreported?  What about the people who caught the plague and got over it, without being tracked?  You need to count them too.   But you can't.

The numbers you don't know are just as important as the ones you do know.  I'm not being optimistic about the death rate, I'm just being pessimistic about the available information.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on June 19, 2020, 09:17:41 pm

Today in Mexico:

-165k REPORTED cases
-19.7k deaths

Question: Do we really have 12% mortality case? Cause were not doing in no way at all massive testing.

There has been speculation that we have between 5x up 10x real cases.

5x real cases scenario: 825k cases, 20k deaths = 2% mortality
10x real cases scenario: 1,650k cases, 20k deahts = 1% mortality

Now if you add that Covid deaths sometimes get reported as atypical pneuomonia or whatever, we dont really know what is actually happening.

What's sad is that this is literally the first news of this out of Mexico that I have heard since you had two cases.

Don't worry, we're doing better than most countries... i really don't think one can hide that many Covid deaths in the stats, and im 100% certain that at the least theres 2x as many cases as reported... which means were at 6% mortality or lower, pretty good for the third world  :wink:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 20, 2020, 01:51:16 am

Today in Mexico:

-165k REPORTED cases
-19.7k deaths

Question: Do we really have 12% mortality case? Cause were not doing in no way at all massive testing.

There has been speculation that we have between 5x up 10x real cases.

5x real cases scenario: 825k cases, 20k deaths = 2% mortality
10x real cases scenario: 1,650k cases, 20k deahts = 1% mortality

Now if you add that Covid deaths sometimes get reported as atypical pneuomonia or whatever, we dont really know what is actually happening.

What's sad is that this is literally the first news of this out of Mexico that I have heard since you had two cases.

Don't worry, we're doing better than most countries... i really don't think one can hide that many Covid deaths in the stats, and im 100% certain that at the least theres 2x as many cases as reported... which means were at 6% mortality or lower, pretty good for the third world  :wink:

We're proper fucked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on June 26, 2020, 10:35:15 am
As are we.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 26, 2020, 06:03:39 pm
As are we.

2 days straight of 35,000+ new cases per day.  Deaths are down, but this bloom of new cases will fix that in a week.

Added onto the fact that Trump has publicly decided that none of this is a thing, and we're not going to react to it anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on June 26, 2020, 08:15:40 pm
We've had 159 in total over the last 24 hours, but that's a 200% increase on the death rate from the start of this month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on June 26, 2020, 10:37:57 pm
I literally just went back and forth across Wisconsin. I was the only person wearing a mask that I saw except store employees. Wisconsin is doomed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on June 27, 2020, 01:48:56 am
I literally just went back and forth across Wisconsin. I was the only person wearing a mask that I saw except store employees. Wisconsin is doomed.

I was just at the grocery store, there was maybe 200 people there, only two idiots not wearing masks.

In Pima County, that's a $360 fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on June 27, 2020, 01:24:46 pm
as the country slides back into total horseshit, I'm gonna take a mini-vacation next weekend, to what may be the safest part of the entire US: Western New York.

I'm visiting Ithica, which is on Stage IV of reopening. With a relatively low population, and good public adherence to masking and social distancing, the region has now basically reopened without a spike... indoor dining is allowed at 50% capacity. Events with up to 50 people are happening.

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on June 27, 2020, 02:58:48 pm
I think that's the most galling thing. If people had adhered correctly to the procedures most of the country could be opening up by now. New Zealand and Germany are, for example, with relatively little deaths on their part. Instead the UK and USA have gone at half-measures all the way along, rendering what shutdown we did have effectively worthless because we're going to have to do it again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on June 27, 2020, 04:00:16 pm
This vacation is really borne out of my fiance wisely cancelling her trip to see her family in South Carolina.

South Carolina is fucked central. They didn't take it seriously, and now they're getting the spike. They've broken their record for new cases reported something like four times in seven days.

New York announced (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/new-york-new-jersey-and-connecticut-impose-14-day-quarantine-on-travelers-from-coronavirus-hotspot-states.html) that travelers coming in to NY from the 13 "hot-spot" states ( Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Utah and Texas) will need to quarantine themselves for 14 days. While Cuomo has not announced how exactly this will work, he's saying there will be a $2000 fine for breaking quarantine, then a $5000 if you're caught a second time, and up to $10,000 fine if you've "caused harm" (guessing this means if you are deemed responsible for an outbreak).

I think that's great. Over here in NY, we've been in hard lockdown for months. Now it's paying off. I do not want to see that ruined by tourists.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on June 27, 2020, 04:13:19 pm
It's going to be, though. I guarantee it. Just like all the idiots here, going to the beaches. I can tell you right now, most of the people on the beaches in the news over here don't come from Bournemouth, for example (because they know the beaches there are crap and would rather go to Weymouth).
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on June 28, 2020, 11:11:51 pm
So, this is weird (https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN23X2HQ?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR3rQ-mIyNI9gi5PbeB1XVMvsEcWauH3WcwqhRUxM64Y_FFhWuNDkF6EHxw):

Quote
Spanish virologists have found traces of the novel coronavirus in a sample of Barcelona waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before the COVID-19 disease was identified in China, the University of Barcelona said on Friday.

The discovery of virus genome presence so early in Spain, if confirmed, would imply the disease may have appeared much earlier than the scientific community thought.

The University of Barcelona team, who had been testing waste water since mid-April this year to identify potential new outbreaks, decided to also run tests on older samples.

Note:

Quote
The research has been submitted for a peer review.

Dr Joan Ramon Villalbi of the Spanish Society for Public Health and Sanitary Administration told Reuters it was still early to draw definitive conclusions.

"When it's just one result, you always want more data, more studies, more samples to confirm it and rule out a laboratory error or a methodological problem," he said.

There was the potential for a false positive due to the virus' similarities with other respiratory infections.

"But it's definitely interesting, it's suggestive," Villalbi said.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on July 01, 2020, 04:05:13 pm
I've heard that people who are asymptomatic might have partial immunity from a similar but less deadly coronavirus and I wonder if that's what's going on there
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on July 01, 2020, 07:29:37 pm
I've heard that people who are asymptomatic might have partial immunity from a similar but less deadly coronavirus and I wonder if that's what's going on there

The way I’ve heard it is the initial outbreak was of something you could call “SARS-CoV-2a”, the “original”/“classic” strain of SARS-nCoV-2, the cause of COVID. This strain was not particularly dangerous, which led to the initially slow response in China.

Then you have a second strain that popped up at some point before the death-toll skyrocketed. Keep in mind this thing was percolating since at least December in Wuhan, and there isn’t a concurrent death toll. In fact new cases barely get reported (not just by the government, but by the populace: there’s no spike in hospital visits!) until mid January, which we can presume is the arrival of strain 2, “SARS-CoV-2b” so to speak.

There was a graph showing that the foothold in a country that receives COVID infections starts with this first strain, then the second strain pops up and outcompetes it afterwards.

The above is facts I remember reading. Everything below is speculation.

There’s an argument to be made that the first strain potentiates the transmission of the second strain, while also providing limited immunity from it. A model of this looks something like people who get strain 1 get immunity to symptoms of both strains, but become able to transmit strain 2. People who acquire strain 2 but not 1 can’t transmit it. Presumably acquiring strain 1 after or concurrently with strain 2 provides limited or no resistance at all.

This isn’t unheard of, by the way, I just can’t remember other cases off the top of my head. I think they’re mostly digestive? Howl might actually know more, given his poop plant years.

Initial thought is strain 2 is blood bound and can only escape with bleeding into the lungs and coughing, which strain 1 provides?

Point is, all the fucked up death and blood disease is arguably a strain 2 thing, and the relative lack of transmission from some people and relatively high transmission of apparently less bad disease in initial outbreaks outside of China tends to point to strain 1 being older, less terrible, and possibly potentiating strain 2. The fecal sample from 2019 might carry strain 1, in which case we might be looking at an outbreak with two sources and two patient zeros: the deadly one and the infectious one. Pure speculation, but not unfounded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on July 06, 2020, 03:35:58 pm
https://apnews.com/cf9528ebff1d5dd7e3b95d467d7e9418

Quote
Egypt arrests doctors, silences critics over virus outbreak
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on July 06, 2020, 08:15:39 pm
https://apnews.com/8513ec966d26d1c850e7cab0b269997c

Quote
“In a crisis, when you lack an operational solution, all you are left with is humanity,” Dezenhall said. “This is just a situation where Trump cannot pivot because he views empathy as the equivalent of running down Pennsylvania Avenue in high heels and a tutu.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on July 13, 2020, 02:01:47 am
New York had a day of no COVID deaths. New York, in the olden tradition of our country, gets a pizza party — and everyone else has to watch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on July 13, 2020, 02:29:17 am
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

Quote
In the first longitudinal study of its kind, scientists analysed the immune response of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS foundation trust and found levels of antibodies that can destroy the virus peaked about three weeks after the onset of symptoms then swiftly declined.

Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus, only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable.

“People are producing a reasonable antibody response to the virus, but it’s waning over a short period of time and depending on how high your peak is, that determines how long the antibodies are staying around,” said Dr Katie Doores, lead author on the study at King’s College London.

The study has implications for the development of a vaccine, and for the pursuit of “herd immunity” in the community over time.

I'd say so, yeah.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on July 13, 2020, 02:59:25 am
That’s pretty fucked up. That’s... if COVID becomes seasonal, you’ll have COVID vaccines for the season. Potentially, with a booster necessary for the end.

And COVID is not gonna be seasonal. Count on that.

There are only two options. Full elimination of COVID, to the degree of smallpox, or introducing The New Normal — forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on July 13, 2020, 04:09:34 pm
Oh hey, so uh, it turns out that COVID wrecks your junk if you have a dong.

https://twitter.com/catbailey/status/1282528142985437184?s=21

And the tweet is so very true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on July 13, 2020, 04:12:03 pm
Wasnt trump seen wearing a mask yesterday?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on July 13, 2020, 04:35:30 pm
"Covid will kill millions and collapse necessary infrastructure if left unchecked."

THEM: *crickets*

"Covid will make your balls shrivel up, dry out, and drop off."

THEM:  :omg:
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on July 13, 2020, 04:41:17 pm
 :lulz:

To be honest with you, I read this and had a bare moment of “could this be the answer I seek?” But no, it is not, I would be more likely to die than to live.

Also, I had sort of just assumed all of this to be true anyway, because COVID being a blood disease means the three big complications are going to be neurological, respiratory, and (AMAB) genital. All three areas rely on blood in a massive way. We heard about the respiratory, then the neurological... in my heart I knew that rotten testicles and inflamed penises were on the way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on July 13, 2020, 04:59:10 pm
in my heart I knew that rotten testicles and inflamed penises were on the way.

Newsfeed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on July 13, 2020, 05:01:39 pm
in my heart I knew that rotten testicles and inflamed penises were on the way.

Newsfeed.

 :lulz: :lulz: :lulz:

Dude I was literally just thinking that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on July 13, 2020, 08:34:01 pm
So it would seem there's a bit of contention between almost 300 independent scientists from multiple disciplines and the WHO on airborne transmission and viral aerosolization. At first WHO tried to just double down on their insistence on it only EVER happening in specific medical procedures. Now they are walking that back. I personally suspect it's not news to the WHO, but whatever I think the ball remains dropped.

Here's a good rundown of the situation by Dr. Campbell. I have been following his analysis pretty much since March. He's a straight shooter and sticks to the official numbers rigorously. This is by far the most agitated I've seen him.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=CjuaPuiqYnA


Also because I don't think it's been brought up ITT an article on how the virus do seems in order.

Quote
Researchers exploring the interaction between the coronavirus and its hosts have discovered that when the SARS-CoV-2 virus infects a human cell, it sets off a ghoulish transformation. Obeying instructions from the virus, the newly infected cell sprouts multi-pronged tentacles studded with viral particles.

These disfigured zombie cells appear to be using those streaming filaments, or filopodia, to reach still-healthy neighboring cells. The protuberances appear to bore into the cells’ bodies and inject their viral venom directly into those cells’ genetic command centers — thus creating another zombie.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-06-26/inside-the-body-the-coronavirus-is-even-more-sinister-than-scientists-had-realized%3f_amp=true
I have to say that even in my worst conceptions of how this could be getting the numbers it does from the beginning THIS was far beyond how I thought it, or any real virus, might work. Remember the neoplasma from the CDC documentation I posted up thread and how those are generally found in novel cancers? Here you go. We're now looking to anti cancer drugs for some kind of treatment.

Airborne fucking cancer virus.

ETA the number of scientists in dissent is 239. My mind transposed to 293 and I rounded up wrongly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on July 13, 2020, 11:08:40 pm

Ah yes, speaking the language of a b-side movie, very serious and scientific article.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on July 14, 2020, 12:04:17 am

Ah yes, speaking the language of a b-side movie, very serious and scientific article.

Let me Google that for you. (https://www.google.com/search?ei=KucMX5CBK4q2tAaYjqTABw&q=sars-cov-2+filipodia&oq=sars-cov-2+filipodia&gs_lcp=ChNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwEAMyBAgAEA0yBAgAEA1QAFgAYK6VAmgAcAB4AIABjwGIAY8BkgEDMC4xmAEA&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp) Take your pick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on July 14, 2020, 03:34:40 am

Ah yes, speaking the language of a b-side movie, very serious and scientific article.

Cut out the “zombie” shit, and it’s fairly scary and accurate. Filamentous cellular morphology could easily behave this way, and in fact is often used this way by filopodous amoebae. Well, lysosomes instead of virions, but still.

The cancer part is scare mongering, because the fucked up morphology is due to viral load, and an effective antiviral course would cause them to return to normal function. Temporarily larger than normal, with possible related symptoms in rare cases... but cancerous, not likely.

More likely to create a very different kind of abnormal cell that gets very large but never reproduces. These are common after many, many viral infections. Check the swelling/clumping, Syncitium, and Focal Degeneration (sounds like the COVID cytopathy is a weird mix of the three, and the cellular spread is most similar to focal degeneration) entries: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytopathic_effect

And you’ll note that non-degenerative/destructive cytopathy doesn’t make a cell dangerous independent of the viral infection, or kill it. There are exceptions, but just for a good example: HPV is oncogenic and isn’t known for its distortions of cellular morphology. No, it’s retroviral in action: check E6/E7 proteins section under Virology for the mechanism, and note that the HPV directly interacts with cellular genome. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_papillomavirus_infection That and toxins are the only way for infections to potentiate cancer, and viruses don’t do toxins, because they literally can’t, that involves nonexistent cellular machinery.

Now that we’ve gotten cancer bullshit out of the way, the rest seems pretty solid, so I think you maybe were a bit harsh here Johnny.


EDIT: forgot to provide HPV link
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on July 14, 2020, 04:16:30 am

Ah yes, speaking the language of a b-side movie, very serious and scientific article.

Cut out the “zombie” shit, and it’s fairly scary and accurate. Filamentous cellular morphology could easily behave this way, and in fact is often used this way by filopodous amoebae. Well, lysosomes instead of virions, but still.

The cancer part is scare mongering, because the fucked up morphology is due to viral load, and an effective antiviral course would cause them to return to normal function. Temporarily larger than normal, with possible related symptoms in rare cases... but cancerous, not likely.

More likely to create a very different kind of abnormal cell that gets very large but never reproduces. These are common after many, many viral infections. Check the swelling/clumping, Syncitium, and Focal Degeneration (sounds like the COVID cytopathy is a weird mix of the three, and the cellular spread is most similar to focal degeneration) entries: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytopathic_effect

And you’ll note that non-degenerative/destructive cytopathy doesn’t make a cell dangerous independent of the viral infection, or kill it. There are exceptions, but just for a good example: HPV is oncogenic and isn’t known for its distortions of cellular morphology. No, it’s retroviral in action: check E6/E7 proteins section under Virology for the mechanism, and note that the HPV directly interacts with cellular genome. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_papillomavirus_infection That and toxins are the only way for infections to potentiate cancer, and viruses don’t do toxins, because they literally can’t, that involves nonexistent cellular machinery.

Now that we’ve gotten cancer bullshit out of the way, the rest seems pretty solid, so I think you maybe were a bit harsh here Johnny.


EDIT: forgot to provide HPV link

Its just that fear mongering and clickbait language makes me go rabid blind... lot of people living in uncertainty about the future and the author making an ad-lib Resident Evil fanfiction spin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on July 14, 2020, 04:25:07 am
Ok I admit that it's not evident that any form of mitosis is involved in proliferation.

*ahem*

Airborne fucking harrably mutagenic novel virus that it is hoped cancer drugs may be some meaningful hindrance to.

That's just not as easy to say as "cancer", which may not be described here but I would certainly not rule out as possible long term. But I get it if you want to be painstakingly precise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on July 14, 2020, 09:03:10 am

Im sorry and I also want to be precise in what im saying.

Yes, I got triggered by the article, I dont deny or debate the scientific information it contains (see Altered above for more info, I dont know about the subject)... it was just the quality of journalism.

Second, TWJ, i didnt mean to police how you express yourself and was not attacking the words you chose, i was still rambling on about the article exclusively, sorry if it came out that way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on July 14, 2020, 03:48:12 pm
Its just that fear mongering and clickbait language makes me go rabid blind... lot of people living in uncertainty about the future and the author making an ad-lib Resident Evil fanfiction spin.

totally agree--of the articles I've read on this topic, that one was the most clickbaity.

"sinister", "creepy", "ghoulish", "disfigured zombie cells", "Like space invaders in a science fiction tale"

^
none of that language is good health-science reporting, it's intent is persuasive rather than informative


I think it's interesting that other sources covering the same finding (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-drugs-sars-cov-hijacking-cells.html) focus on the researcher's major takeaway - recognizing these filipodia structures suggests there may be existing drugs which could treat these infections. The discovery of these filipodia opens up new treatment avenues.

Quote
“The distinct visualization of the extensive branching of the filopodia once again elucidates how understanding the biology of virus-host interaction can illuminate possible points of intervention in the disease,” said co-lead author Dr. Nevan Krogan, Director of the Quantitative Biosciences Institute the University of California San Francisco and Senior Investigator at Gladstone Institutes.

“Kinases possess certain structural features that make them good drug targets. Drugs have already been developed to target some of the kinases we identified, so we urge clinical researchers to test the antiviral effects of these drugs in their trials,” Dr. Beltrao said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on July 14, 2020, 05:33:07 pm

Im sorry and I also want to be precise in what im saying.

Yes, I got triggered by the article, I dont deny or debate the scientific information it contains (see Altered above for more info, I dont know about the subject)... it was just the quality of journalism.

Second, TWJ, i didnt mean to police how you express yourself and was not attacking the words you chose, i was still rambling on about the article exclusively, sorry if it came out that way.

No apology needed. In point of fact I made no complaint about any of what you're talking about and wasn't even thinking most of it. If anything I'm not pleased it rubbed you wrong on style. That's not my intent, but I did choose the one with the grabby sounding title over others. It was an arbitrary personal choice and I make no appologies for it.

I do find it darkly amusing nobody is picking at me using the word airborne anymore. Not because I turned out to be very likley correct, but because acquiescence to the popular opinion allowed me to almost put it out of my mind for a while and the joke feels like it is kind of on me.  :|
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on July 14, 2020, 05:57:34 pm

I do find it darkly amusing nobody is picking at me using the word airborne anymore.

I gave up.  You selected your conclusion and have been laboring on it ever since.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on July 14, 2020, 07:08:16 pm
Ill pick up on it. The virus isn't airborn. Its consistent with droplet or surface spread. Which has been reinforced world wide by the rate of transmission
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on July 14, 2020, 07:33:37 pm
Way higher transmission than fomites (surface spread), but nowhere near what’s needed for airborne.

Social distancing and a mask would have limited to no measurable effect on airborne transmission. You’d need something like a MOPP outfit, at least. If cloth masks and social distancing have a real effect, as we have seen that they do, it can’t be airborne.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on July 14, 2020, 07:35:30 pm
By the way, remember that your eyes are a major transmission method for COVID.

How many people wear non-vented goggles?

If it’s airborne, ALL OF THOSE PEOPLE WHO DO NOT HAVE COVID.

Edit to stress HAVE not WILL GET. They already have it, if it’s airborne. The protests would unavoidably correspond with a spike and they do not.

EDIT 2 to make things more clear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on July 14, 2020, 08:02:46 pm

The only thing I've read about airborne transmission is how second-hand smoke can allegedly aerosolize the virus... I've also picked up some face shields, to stop myself from touching my face, protect my eyes, and protect myself from the possibility of aerosolized virii in certain situations.

Face shields are pretty nice when u have to speak to people for prolonged times, 10/10 would recommend and theyre cheap for the most part.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on July 14, 2020, 10:10:54 pm
Ok. We'll wait a little longer and see if WHO and all those dissenting scientists come to some sort of consensus on the matter. I am not just some dude shopping for a predertermined conclusion. I dropped it entirely until presented with the fact of all the dissent on the matter. It's not just my speculation at this point. Guess we'll see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on July 20, 2020, 03:24:50 pm
some good news - Oxford has a handhold on a possible vaccine, called ChAdOx1 nCoV-19

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53469839


.............of course it's called Chad
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on July 20, 2020, 03:40:21 pm
some good news - Oxford has a handhold on a possible vaccine, called ChAdOx1 nCoV-19

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53469839


.............of course it's called Chad

Quote
It is made from a genetically engineered virus that causes the common cold in chimpanzees.

It has been heavily modified, first so it cannot cause infections in people and also to make it "look" more like coronavirus.

That's so godamn creepy, but it is what it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on July 20, 2020, 04:58:14 pm
Not really, it's a lot like smallpox inoculation: just give someone cowpox instead. The body confuses the two, the cowpox is pretty much harmless, it works.

They just had to make their own cowpox this go around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on July 20, 2020, 07:17:00 pm
The Chad vaccine versus The Virgin Herd Immunity
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Faust on July 20, 2020, 07:59:39 pm
Chad picks on me for being an autistic virgin nerd...
BUT...
Chad also gives me autism?
How can that be fair?
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on July 20, 2020, 08:04:08 pm
Got it all backwards pal

The virgins just think they’re autistic, the chad actually is that’s why he got all those weird poses, it’s stimming
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on July 24, 2020, 08:02:44 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-arizona/arizona-drops-in-person-school-start-date-as-virus-rate-remains-high-idUSKCN24O34O
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on July 25, 2020, 12:14:13 am
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-arizona/arizona-drops-in-person-school-start-date-as-virus-rate-remains-high-idUSKCN24O34O
Welp. 🙃🙃🙃
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on July 26, 2020, 06:03:55 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-arizona/arizona-drops-in-person-school-start-date-as-virus-rate-remains-high-idUSKCN24O34O
Welp. 🙃🙃🙃

Almost nobody is going to send their kids, as far as I can tell.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on July 26, 2020, 09:37:27 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-arizona/arizona-drops-in-person-school-start-date-as-virus-rate-remains-high-idUSKCN24O34O
Welp. 🙃🙃🙃

Almost nobody is going to send their kids, as far as I can tell.

Why do i have a vague recollection that not sending your kids to school is reason for CPS to come knocking at your door? I wonder if more of a reason its more of an excuse in the context of greater abuse and its their way to get their foot in the door?
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on July 27, 2020, 05:08:11 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-arizona/arizona-drops-in-person-school-start-date-as-virus-rate-remains-high-idUSKCN24O34O
Welp. 🙃🙃🙃

Almost nobody is going to send their kids, as far as I can tell.

Why do i have a vague recollection that not sending your kids to school is reason for CPS to come knocking at your door? I wonder if more of a reason its more of an excuse in the context of greater abuse and its their way to get their foot in the door?

Not if you reg as a homeschool parent.  Which takes all of 5 minutes to start.  It is a bugger to maintain, though.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on July 27, 2020, 06:36:04 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-arizona/arizona-drops-in-person-school-start-date-as-virus-rate-remains-high-idUSKCN24O34O
Welp. 🙃🙃🙃

Almost nobody is going to send their kids, as far as I can tell.

Why do i have a vague recollection that not sending your kids to school is reason for CPS to come knocking at your door? I wonder if more of a reason its more of an excuse in the context of greater abuse and its their way to get their foot in the door?

Not if you reg as a homeschool parent.  Which takes all of 5 minutes to start.  It is a bugger to maintain, though.

Can and will CPS strong arm the general population on this? Cause i see it coming.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on July 28, 2020, 04:26:55 am
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-arizona/arizona-drops-in-person-school-start-date-as-virus-rate-remains-high-idUSKCN24O34O
Welp. 🙃🙃🙃

Almost nobody is going to send their kids, as far as I can tell.

Why do i have a vague recollection that not sending your kids to school is reason for CPS to come knocking at your door? I wonder if more of a reason its more of an excuse in the context of greater abuse and its their way to get their foot in the door?

Not if you reg as a homeschool parent.  Which takes all of 5 minutes to start.  It is a bugger to maintain, though.

Can and will CPS strong arm the general population on this? Cause i see it coming.

Depends on the state, I think.  Most states won't fight homeschooling.

They will instead just take all the school money and invest in private prisons.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on July 28, 2020, 07:23:07 pm
CPS, in California anyway, is only doing visits for things like "we think this parent may imminently sell their child to traffickers" atm so very doubtful.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Fujikoma on July 28, 2020, 07:40:50 pm
The people who homeschool in the face of the pandemic will survive, the ones who don't may lose family members. It will suck and it will have resounding consequences. Homeschooling, it's not just for weird Libertarians anymore.

I have problems with the Trump administration insisting that schools open, they're playing games with people's lives. Everyone knows that every snot-nosed brat-child licks every doorknob they come across and mercilessly spreads disease, this was acceptable when it was the Flu, which, while it kills people doesn't cause lasting damage, but when it comes to COVID-19 we have to be especially careful. I met a woman I fell hopelessly in love with, she feels the same way, but neither of us want to take the chance of visiting eachother and giving the other the disease. But you know the Trump cultists will be sure to have their doorknob lickers step it up and get everyone they can sick, mostly in their own family. Maybe some form of Darwinism will emerge from this, but as an idiot that survives the worst shit I've lost faith in natural selection.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: LMNO on July 28, 2020, 08:02:04 pm
The people who homeschool in the face of the pandemic will survive, the ones who don't may lose family members. It will suck and it will have resounding consequences. Homeschooling, it's not just for weird Libertarians anymore.


Then there will be families who simply can't, since our economy is based on using school as childcare (and healthcare, and food security) while the parents work.  Especially people on the low end of the "economic inequality" equation.

And because of historical racial inequality, that means more BIPOC will die, statistically.

So basically, Steve Miller has a constant hardon these days.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Fujikoma on July 28, 2020, 09:11:28 pm
You're right, and it sucks. It's what we're going to have to do though to side-step the doorknob-licker apocolypse. Let's hope someone puts Trump out of commission before his administration can flex on schools for them to open.

EDIT: My best friend had a crisis recently, ICE was going to ship her brother out of the country because all his classes went online, luckilly a week or two and twenty-something lawsuit-filers later they changed the rule.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: LMNO on July 30, 2020, 03:52:11 pm
Herman Cain just died of Covid. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/former-gop-presidential-candidate-herman-cain-dies-after-battle-with-coronavirus.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on July 30, 2020, 04:19:22 pm
fucking SHIT
now I have to change my twitter avatar
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on July 30, 2020, 04:29:01 pm
Not a pretty way to go.

The people who homeschool in the face of the pandemic will survive, the ones who don't may lose family members. It will suck and it will have resounding consequences. Homeschooling, it's not just for weird Libertarians anymore.


Then there will be families who simply can't, since our economy is based on using school as childcare (and healthcare, and food security) while the parents work.  Especially people on the low end of the "economic inequality" equation.

And because of historical racial inequality, that means more BIPOC will die, statistically.

So basically, Steve Miller has a constant hardon these days.
Yep, bc both parents and the kids will constantly be exposed and schools are petri dishes at the best of times. Then there's the issue of access for districts that DO do distance learning. Devices can be provided but internet connection will have to be cobbled together ad hoc. My district is rolling out its own internet. We're the fourth or fifth largest school district in the state with a larger surplus, so wrt have the resources to pull for an emergency like this but a ton of others won't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on July 31, 2020, 03:20:19 am
Herman Cain just died of Covid. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/former-gop-presidential-candidate-herman-cain-dies-after-battle-with-coronavirus.html)

Well, he's not fed up anymore, and that should count for something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on August 01, 2020, 09:37:42 pm
How Jared Kushner’s Secret Testing Plan “Went Poof Into Thin Air” (http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/how-jared-kushners-secret-testing-plan-went-poof-into-thin-air)

Quote
"Six months into the pandemic, the United States continues to suffer the worst outbreak of COVID-19 in the developed world. Considerable blame belongs to a federal response that offloaded responsibility for the crucial task of testing to the states. The irony is that, after assembling the team that came up with an aggressive and ambitious national testing plan, Kushner then appears to have decided, for reasons that remain murky, to scrap its proposal.
...
Most troubling of all, perhaps, was a sentiment the expert said a member of Kushner’s team expressed: that because the virus had hit blue states hardest, a national plan was unnecessary and would not make sense politically. “The political folks believed that because it was going to be relegated to Democratic states, that they could blame those governors, and that would be an effective political strategy,” said the expert.

That logic may have swayed Kushner. “It was very clear that Jared was ultimately the decision maker as to what [plan] was going to come out,” the expert said."

They left us to fucking die in the name of politics.

Also if anyone needs screenshots of the article, I gotchu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on August 01, 2020, 11:43:11 pm
You've got quote tags in your BB code, if you're wondering why that link isn't working as it should.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on August 02, 2020, 12:14:57 am
You've got quote tags in your BB code, if you're wondering why that link isn't working as it should.
Thanks. I'm used to having to do that for html, lmao.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on August 02, 2020, 08:02:32 am
You've got quote tags in your BB code, if you're wondering why that link isn't working as it should.
Thanks. I'm used to having to do that for html, lmao.

No worries.

And yes, it wouldn't surprise me if similar factors have driven the outcome in several countries. We know that governments have access to at least semi-advanced modelling tools, and beyond that the idea that a highly contagious disease would ravage cities more than the countryside is a fairly straightforward one. Yes, the disease is more lethal to the elderly, but the elderly in cities are not a significant voting block either, at least not significant enough to force a change in the outcome. So urban areas, which their liberal or left-wing leanings were considered by populist rightwing governments, both in the UK, USA and likely Brazil, to be "acceptable casualties" in the event of Covid-19 going pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on August 02, 2020, 02:08:58 pm
the "jared let thousands die to make urban governors look bad" is one of those things that would have erupted into a volcano under any other president, but we're all so exhausted

on some level I'm furious, and on another level I'm like "yeah that checks out"
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on August 02, 2020, 03:07:41 pm
https://www.nola.com/news/healthcare_hospitals/article_589eeade-d299-11ea-a0aa-2f04c62b410c.html

Seems like the inflammatory syndrome seen in children can be seen in adults. Long term consequences like continued clotting make me wonder if we're really able to eradicate the whole viral load post presentation. I also wonder what effect all that reported neoplasm may be having in and of itself. There's still so much weird shit with unknown causes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on August 03, 2020, 03:36:05 pm
That moment when facial recognition stops working

That moment when LuciferX is posting random shit in an active thread, either because he's off his meds and thinks that this "contribution" somehow fits into the thread, or because he's a butthurt weenie who is deliberately trying to fuck with the thread because, you know, "butthurt weenie."
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on August 03, 2020, 03:37:30 pm
the "jared let thousands die to make urban governors look bad" is one of those things that would have erupted into a volcano under any other president, but we're all so exhausted

on some level I'm furious, and on another level I'm like "yeah that checks out"

There's not you can do without just getting in another pointless argument with the spin machine.

Well, not directly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on August 03, 2020, 11:20:27 pm
That moment when facial recognition stops working

That moment when LuciferX is posting random shit in an active thread, either because he's off his meds and thinks that this "contribution" somehow fits into the thread, or because he's a butthurt weenie who is deliberately trying to fuck with the thread because, you know, "butthurt weenie."


Yes. It was an underdeveloped “Franken weenie beans” attempt at error correction. You had me at “assume the position.”


ETA damnit

Dude. I really want you to shut up with that shit on this particular thread. Don't reply with some nonsense to this post. I'm not being cute. This thread is about a topic that is killing folks and fundamentally altering society. Go shit in the bar or something if you MUST post some shit. Just please shut up here. Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on August 18, 2020, 04:50:03 pm
Panic buying is again a thing.

https://apnews.com/2d762d7369b1d2da22518eb011e8b6b0
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on August 18, 2020, 06:55:40 pm
Panic buying is again a thing.

https://apnews.com/2d762d7369b1d2da22518eb011e8b6b0

On a broader note I expect there to be an exodus of monied people from major cities over time to more remote communities and a land grab of sorts in the "flyover" states as such people begin to set up communities aimed at ensuring members are covid free and not being exposed. Essentially very large gated communities.

That's just a guess of course, but as things progress and the bodies stack higher they will get SUPER panicky in short order and start dropping money in the name of any percieved chance of salvation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on August 25, 2020, 01:25:54 am
https://www.yahoo.com/news/researchers-report-1st-confirmed-cases-135337804.html

Quote
The patient in question was a 33-year-old man who only had mild coronavirus symptoms the first time around, The New York Times reports. COVID-19 patients are usually considered recovered when they test negative for the virus multiple times. But after a trip to Spain, this recovered patient tested positive for the virus again despite showing no symptoms. Researchers tested the second virus to confirm it wasn't just "viral shedding" from the first infection, Dr. Kelvin Kai-Wang To, a clinical microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong, said in a statement. The testing revealed the second virus stemmed from a strain making its way around Europe in July and August, strongly suggesting it wasn't a lingering bit of the first virus the man picked up in Hong Kong.


Seems we have begun to see fairly solid cases of reinfection by different strains. I guess we shall see how that plays out, but "herd immunity" as an excuse to let the infection spread unchecked is kinda looking unlikely.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Juana on August 25, 2020, 01:51:38 am
Jesus fuck. This is exhausting.

Regarding the clotting, I sort of wonder if it just fucks up the cells that produce the platelets for a while (or permanently 😬) so it takes however long the turnover for that stuff takes to stop being fucky.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Wizard Joseph on August 27, 2020, 07:38:50 pm
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/dr-fauci-says-catch-coronavirus-002458080.html

Quote

According to the CDC website, people without symptoms no longer need to be tested for COVID-19—even if they have been in contact with others who have tested positive.

"If you have been in close contact (within 6 feet) of a person with a COVID-19 infection for at least 15 minutes but do not have symptoms, you do not necessarily need a test unless you are a vulnerable individual or your health care provider or State or local public health officials recommend you take one," reads the new update.


Quote
This news seemed to surprise Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert and a member of the coronavirus task force. "I was under general anesthesia in the operating room"—to remove a polyp on his vocal cord—"and was not part of any discussion or deliberation regarding the new testing recommendations," Fauci told CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta, who read Fauci's statement on air. "I am concerned about the interpretation of these recommendations and worried it will give people the incorrect assumption that asymptomatic spread is not of great concern. In fact it is."


So CDC is out of its gotdamn mind and put out new recommendations while Fauci was under for surgery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on August 27, 2020, 07:46:45 pm
yeah, Trump is jeopardizing the CDCs credibility...

this is the bad place

Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on August 27, 2020, 08:41:35 pm
We’re all going to die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cramulus on September 04, 2020, 05:19:44 pm
I try not to get my medical facts from medium.com but I thought this piece was interesting - details one hypothesis about how COVID-19 works

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on September 04, 2020, 06:26:25 pm
I try not to get my medical facts from medium.com but I thought this piece was interesting - details one hypothesis about how COVID-19 works

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

Its a nice read, but i only got halfway cause reading about the specifics makes me nauseous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: altered on September 05, 2020, 01:19:00 am
This is good, solid work, and the links support the bulk of the text at a skim. Good find.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on September 05, 2020, 09:06:27 am
The vitamin D mention is potentially a hugely important one. It's very readily available and, as the author notes, a significant amount of the population is already deficient in it. If that can help alleviate symptoms, in conjunction with more intensive treatments...
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: minuspace on September 05, 2020, 05:59:05 pm
It learned me that:
Quote
a Covid-19 infection generally begins when the virus enters the body through ACE2 receptors in the nose.

This just when I thought I had the whole breathing thing figured out.
Title: Re: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Fujikoma on September 06, 2020, 01:10:03 am
This is all very alarming, still it strikes me that this whole thing has been allowed to progress to a stage where it seems like it may become a "new normal", we had a chance early on to contain our exposure but given how we proceeded, I don't see US citizens being welcome in other countries, especially given a few articles I read about Canadians reporting foreign license plates. Other than that, I don't know what to say, other than this all is very concerning and seems like something we'll definitely end up paying for for generations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Doktor Howl on September 13, 2020, 12:25:43 am
Learning is sometimes painful.

https://apnews.com/f4988865f4fad739e099b17707f8727f
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: Cain on September 13, 2020, 01:04:49 am
The US is plague continent, while the UK remains plague island.
Title: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
Post by: The Johnny on September 13, 2020, 05:34:32 am

From the makers of the "Meth. We're on it." ad campaign:

https://www.insider.com/south-dakota-kristi-noem-covid-19-funds-5-million-ad-2020-9