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WHO SAID BOTH DIMO AND DOK WERE SUSPICIOUS?!

Nicely done, though, dimo and dok.

Wrong-o on many points traffic, but I'm sure Dok can present a good argument himself.

I haven't decided who I'm voting for yet.

Surely you can appreciate 2, 3 and 5?

Heh.

I'm now almost certain that Dok is the sibling wolf.
1. Everything that Paes said
2. All throughout the game he's been asking to be lynched, or pretending that he doesn't want to play, which is something someone in the wolf position would not do- in an attempt to look innocent. If I really didnt want to play, I would simply quit.
3. Like someone said, it's often the "leaders" who end up being wolves. Dok's been doing this.
4. If I recall correctly, all of his previous first votes have never been for wolves, apart from when it's definate a lynching is going ahead- in which case he merely joins in as it cannot make him more suspicious.
5. Very quick to call "wolf" on other people.

In addition I think Freeky could be the other sibling. They seem to agree a lot. However, this shouldn't really matter. If we kill one, we take out the other one too.

Dok- 1
Requia- 1

Did you just punch out Cthulhu?

[Finally.]

Ok, the fact that I'm currently fairly untrusted shouldn't matter, as this post is aimed at the wolves.
One wolf in particular- the pure wolf. Providing Sig isn't the sibling, which I am certain he isn't, you now know who the traitor wolf is.
In no way whatsoever does this wolf give you an advantage. In fact, he and the sibling are the main things standing in your way of victory.

Being in a position where you know the traitor is now extremely advantageous for you, as you can now look back into the thread and see who has been agreeing with the traitor often- this will likely be the sibling. I advise that this is the next person you kill.

You may believe that this helps the villagers out, and in a way it does. However. At some point in the game, you HAVE to kill the sibling in order to win. Why not now?

Jebus.  The wolves are coming out in force now.

If he were a wolf he could have just PMed this to the relevant wolf, no?

The point is, that if the sibling and the wolf sibling are both left over last, they win, and villagers and wolves both lose.

Either way, let's lynch Sigmatic.

Finally.

If I was a wolf I wouldn't have told you guys my thought processes, I would've just gone ahead and done what I outline for the wolf to do in the paragraph. I doubt you guys would have come to the same conclusion and somehow traced it back to me.

The reason I'm suggesting it now is so then the wolf is more likely to help us and himself out and take out the sibling.


And, what? I wasn't admitting to being a wolf..

You still think I'm a wolf? If so, why?

Ok, the fact that I'm currently fairly untrusted shouldn't matter, as this post is aimed at the wolves.
One wolf in particular- the pure wolf. Providing Sig isn't the sibling, which I am certain he isn't, you now know who the traitor wolf is.
In no way whatsoever does this wolf give you an advantage. In fact, he and the sibling are the main things standing in your way of victory.

Being in a position where you know the traitor is now extremely advantageous for you, as you can now look back into the thread and see who has been agreeing with the traitor often- this will likely be the sibling. I advise that this is the next person you kill.

You may believe that this helps the villagers out, and in a way it does. However. At some point in the game, you HAVE to kill the sibling in order to win. Why not now?

At first I was like

Me ---> 

But now I'm just sort of morbidly enthralled with what's happening.

I confess.  Call me Fenrir, all my buddies do.  I know there's no escaping now, once this village gets an idea in it's head there's never any stopping it.  Ironic, because I've been able to rely on that up until now.  It's funny isn't it, how the humans have murdered more than the wolves.  Yet you think we're the bad guys.  At least when we kill, it's not by committee.

Enjoy your shitty empty village.

Sig- 6
Traffic- 1

Also, Dok, I'm not the twin.

Heh. You guys are going to lose out for lynching me.

And to be honest, I want dimo's pm from lys to be copy-pasted here before I stop doubting him, along with the pm which Lys sent around after being lynched.

Please to be reading moar.

Now I'm definitely a bit suspicious of traffic.  He keeps changing his stance and grasping at minuscule hints.

But he does raise an interesting question.  How many of us did get a PM from Lys?  I did.

I didn't, but I did get a PM from Enrico telling me that he was the psychic, So, with Lys's fraudulent claim coming right after his missed kill/prolonged absence, it seemed like a sure thing in my mind. Nice try, Traffic.

Plus, like I said before, Lys is a "mentalist" and anything that he said should be, generally, disregarded as he no doubt said everything with the attempt to mislead and confuse.

Ok, sorry. Didn't read that. Although I disagree that everything he said should be disregarded- a dead wolf, unlike a dead villager, does not win. Therefore his actions after his lynching may be slightly more believable.

Yes. It was Lysergic.

And to be honest, I want dimo's pm from lys to be copy-pasted here before I stop doubting him, along with the pm which Lys sent around after being lynched.

freeky has a 1/12 chance of being a wolf. Thats about 8-9%, which is more than everyone else.

Gambler's fallacy, much?

Indeed, but thats how probability works. I'm not here to start a big ol' argument and am willing to agree that at the "percentages" I provided won't make a big difference whether I'm right or wrong- there would have to be additional evidence as well as the stats.

But then again, I really doubt that anyone here is going to give away anything from this point on- everyone has worked out how to act and how not to act- if nothing else, everyone will just act as they have previously to avoid a lynch, and we'll have no leads whatsoever.
And providing we continue to base solely on random guesses, we will end up losing.

So I dunno. If anyone was saving any plane tickets to somewhere less "Wolfy", now might be the time to find them.

Nice save, honey.

Buuut, being a wolf in a previous game has no bearing on you being a wolf in this game, seeing as how both were generated randomly according to Remington.

I didn't think it was possible to miss the point so horrendously, I even wrote out how I got the percentages.



The whole point of probability is to factor in randomness.

Probability =/= Evidence of lycanthropy, unfortunately.

Who said it was?