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Apple Talk / Re: Plague Diary
« on: Yesterday at 08:46:10 pm »I'm glad the data backs you guys opening up! Is the mask order still in place?
Yeah, we still need to mask before entering any business. Many businesses require curbside pickup. That was normal for restaurants, but now it's also the same for like, cell phone stores... you can call in, talk to the person etc, buy the product, but then you need to wait outside the store for them to come out and hand it to you. Not clear what exactly IS allowed to open right now, but am starting to see more traffic.
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RPG Ghetto / Re: Of Conspiracies and Contracts
« on: Yesterday at 05:44:42 pm »
What's your experience been like, both DMing and PCing in the same campaign? It sounds tricky!
Are your other players TES lore-masters too? I bet this is setting is really fun to play with others who have done the Deep Read
Are your other players TES lore-masters too? I bet this is setting is really fun to play with others who have done the Deep Read
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Or Kill Me / Re: It’s Not Me
« on: Yesterday at 01:46:15 pm »
we know you're out there, altered, grinding and grinding <3
The terror of the situation is that we're all inside of this ignorant machine, this blind idiot god. I am very sorry that you have to go through this--you're right, it's not you, it's that the giant hates themself, it hates who they really are. But we love you, and we hope you love yourself too.
you've been on my mind as the weather turns nicer, and I am hoping your conditions are more pleasant than the ones you left
The terror of the situation is that we're all inside of this ignorant machine, this blind idiot god. I am very sorry that you have to go through this--you're right, it's not you, it's that the giant hates themself, it hates who they really are. But we love you, and we hope you love yourself too.
you've been on my mind as the weather turns nicer, and I am hoping your conditions are more pleasant than the ones you left
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Bring and Brag / Re: Your Place
« on: Yesterday at 01:41:43 pm »
that's awesome -- I read it out loud, it has a real good rhythm
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Apple Talk / Re: What We Do On February 30th Is Sacred
« on: Yesterday at 01:39:46 pm »
Eris has given you a clue. We've gotta figure out what this means.
Alright, let's start with the date. There have actually been a few February 30ths in history: https://www.timeanddate.com/date/february-30.html
Sweden had a Feb 30th during a time when it was trying to switch calendars from Julian to Gregorian.
Some monk in the 13th century claimed that February had 30 days in leap years between 45 BCE and 8 BCE in the Julian calendar. There might be something there, but we'd also have to figure out which Gregorian dates those Feb 30ths correspond to.
The Soviet Union tried a "revolutionary calendar" in 1930-1931 which had a February 30th, and included a 5-day week. My intuition is that this is the next clue.
Alright, let's start with the date. There have actually been a few February 30ths in history: https://www.timeanddate.com/date/february-30.html
Sweden had a Feb 30th during a time when it was trying to switch calendars from Julian to Gregorian.
Some monk in the 13th century claimed that February had 30 days in leap years between 45 BCE and 8 BCE in the Julian calendar. There might be something there, but we'd also have to figure out which Gregorian dates those Feb 30ths correspond to.
The Soviet Union tried a "revolutionary calendar" in 1930-1931 which had a February 30th, and included a 5-day week. My intuition is that this is the next clue.
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Apple Talk / Re: Open Bar: Subpoenaed by Congress, but still refusing to testify
« on: Yesterday at 01:33:57 pm »Welp. What I'm hearing from my sister wrt what my district might look like next year would destroy me financially. I'm gonna be fighting to get hired and/or looking to go back to a tech track like I was considering a few years ago.
Ugh, that sucks! I don't know the context though, what kind of district?
what kind of tech work do you want to (potentially) do (as a last resort)?
I snapped my right clavicle today, perhaps Karma is real. Damn this shit hurts but it's, doable.
How the hell did you break your clavicle? let me guess -- doing scooter tricks while lipsyncing Ice Ice Baby, for Tik Tok
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RPG Ghetto / Re: The Sword, the Crown, and the Unspeakable Power of Bodemere
« on: May 26, 2020, 06:07:29 pm »
Episode Premise
• The undead which isolate this kingdom from the others have massed up. The roads are filled with ghouls. There is currently no route to other kingdoms. Bodemere is isolated, a far journey from the next kingdom over. With the roads blocked, they are alone.
• In the village outside the city, Metal Legion (the Black Hood) meets with his patron, Orton No-Nose, and the witch Serena. Serena reveals the illusion spell she’s been working on. Using the stolen Knight’s Sword, she can disguise someone as a Sword of Seneca. Metal Legion is tasked with embarrassing or poisoning Sir Bastion. Metal Legion asks his rival, Nigel, to go protect Simon Van Leyden, the heretic preacher.
• Deacon Augustine charges Inquisitor Drosera with the task of either recovering the stolen Lunar Chalice, or identifying who stole it to begin with.
Gameplay Begins
• Drosera visits the small village outside the city and tracks down where the Lunar Chalice is held. She attempts to kidnap the heretic preacher, Simon Van Leyden, but is disrupted by Nigel (Metal Legion’s guildmate and Rival). In the scuffle, she ends up slitting Simon Van Leyden’s throat. Nigel attacks and wounds Drosera, and she dashes into the church. Thinking quickly, she manages to obtain the Lunar Chalice and escape out a second story window. Drosera gives the Lunar Chalice to her patron, Deacon Augustine.
• In the castle, King Seneca decides to ride forward and meet the undead, clear the rode himself. Crow’s Eye rides with him, along with Drosera, and a small company of knights. In the woods, the army encounters a large force of ghouls. They crash into it, trying to cut a path through. The King sends Drosera back to the kingdom to fetch clerics. In the center of it, there seems to be some kind of death knight - a glowing, red necromantic energy inhabiting an empty suit of armor. Though the soldiers weapons are not blessed, King Seneca clears the road, and exposes this creature to an attack from Crow’s Eye. Crow’s Eye faces it in battle, but after taking a few wounds, does not feel he can defeat it. The army quits the road, having dispersed the undead host.
• While the king is out of town, Metal Legion infiltrates the castle while disguised as a Royal Knight. He approaches Sir Bastion, who is busy handling the administration and logistics of commanding the city guard in the king’s absence. Identifying himself as "Sir Stoner" (lol), one of commander Lehigh’s recruits, Metal Legion advises Sir Bastion that a plot is afoot, and that the church is about to try something. Sir Bastion agrees to send some knights to look into it.
• Metal Legion enters Deacon Decimus’ church. Disguised as a royal knight, the assassin meets with the Deacon in his private chambers. He makes a direct threat on the church, attempting to agitate the church against the royal knights. Meanwhile, Drosera (sent by the king to fetch clerics) arrives at the church, bursts into the room. She opens the door in time to see Deacon Decimus on the floor, a royal knight standing over him. Metal Legion leaves, leaving Drosera alone with Decimus. Seizing on the opportunity, Drosera assassinates Deacon Decimus and escapes through an open window. She believes that this implicates Sir Bastion, and therefore, the Royal Knights. (funny... implicating the royal knights and agitating the church against the knights was also Metal Legion's plan)
• At sunrise, Lord Seneca and Crow’s Eye return, victorious, from the battle with the undead. Sir Bastion tells Crow’s Eye that something’s going on with the church, some kind of plot is afoot, and he’d like Crow’s Eye to investigate.
• Crow’s Eye shows up at Deacon Decimus’ church, pushes the clerics out of the way, and strides towards Decimus’ chamber. Crow’s Eye opens the door and discovers a dead body, blood everywhere. He notes the open window, and the slashes on Decimus’ neck, clearly made by Claws. He investigates and finds that not only “Sir Stoner” was there, but also someone who was on church/castle business. Crow’s Eye determines that someone has disguised themself as a knight, so he returns to the castle, furious at his Patron Sir Bastion for being tricked. He calls out his Patron and flips a table, then is censured for that. Sir Crow's Eye is going off the god damn rails.
• Lord Seneca calls to the Unspeakable Power, asking for guidance.. But no answer comes. People in the castle begin to whisper about the dark things the king says in secret when all the doors are closed.
• Drosera also whispers to the Unspeakable Power, and learns that the Church’s Deacons are plotting to get permission to raise an army. (the church has been forbidden from raising a militia outside of the clerics needed to bless weapons)
• The undead which isolate this kingdom from the others have massed up. The roads are filled with ghouls. There is currently no route to other kingdoms. Bodemere is isolated, a far journey from the next kingdom over. With the roads blocked, they are alone.
• In the village outside the city, Metal Legion (the Black Hood) meets with his patron, Orton No-Nose, and the witch Serena. Serena reveals the illusion spell she’s been working on. Using the stolen Knight’s Sword, she can disguise someone as a Sword of Seneca. Metal Legion is tasked with embarrassing or poisoning Sir Bastion. Metal Legion asks his rival, Nigel, to go protect Simon Van Leyden, the heretic preacher.
• Deacon Augustine charges Inquisitor Drosera with the task of either recovering the stolen Lunar Chalice, or identifying who stole it to begin with.
Gameplay Begins
• Drosera visits the small village outside the city and tracks down where the Lunar Chalice is held. She attempts to kidnap the heretic preacher, Simon Van Leyden, but is disrupted by Nigel (Metal Legion’s guildmate and Rival). In the scuffle, she ends up slitting Simon Van Leyden’s throat. Nigel attacks and wounds Drosera, and she dashes into the church. Thinking quickly, she manages to obtain the Lunar Chalice and escape out a second story window. Drosera gives the Lunar Chalice to her patron, Deacon Augustine.
• In the castle, King Seneca decides to ride forward and meet the undead, clear the rode himself. Crow’s Eye rides with him, along with Drosera, and a small company of knights. In the woods, the army encounters a large force of ghouls. They crash into it, trying to cut a path through. The King sends Drosera back to the kingdom to fetch clerics. In the center of it, there seems to be some kind of death knight - a glowing, red necromantic energy inhabiting an empty suit of armor. Though the soldiers weapons are not blessed, King Seneca clears the road, and exposes this creature to an attack from Crow’s Eye. Crow’s Eye faces it in battle, but after taking a few wounds, does not feel he can defeat it. The army quits the road, having dispersed the undead host.
• While the king is out of town, Metal Legion infiltrates the castle while disguised as a Royal Knight. He approaches Sir Bastion, who is busy handling the administration and logistics of commanding the city guard in the king’s absence. Identifying himself as "Sir Stoner" (lol), one of commander Lehigh’s recruits, Metal Legion advises Sir Bastion that a plot is afoot, and that the church is about to try something. Sir Bastion agrees to send some knights to look into it.
• Metal Legion enters Deacon Decimus’ church. Disguised as a royal knight, the assassin meets with the Deacon in his private chambers. He makes a direct threat on the church, attempting to agitate the church against the royal knights. Meanwhile, Drosera (sent by the king to fetch clerics) arrives at the church, bursts into the room. She opens the door in time to see Deacon Decimus on the floor, a royal knight standing over him. Metal Legion leaves, leaving Drosera alone with Decimus. Seizing on the opportunity, Drosera assassinates Deacon Decimus and escapes through an open window. She believes that this implicates Sir Bastion, and therefore, the Royal Knights. (funny... implicating the royal knights and agitating the church against the knights was also Metal Legion's plan)
• At sunrise, Lord Seneca and Crow’s Eye return, victorious, from the battle with the undead. Sir Bastion tells Crow’s Eye that something’s going on with the church, some kind of plot is afoot, and he’d like Crow’s Eye to investigate.
• Crow’s Eye shows up at Deacon Decimus’ church, pushes the clerics out of the way, and strides towards Decimus’ chamber. Crow’s Eye opens the door and discovers a dead body, blood everywhere. He notes the open window, and the slashes on Decimus’ neck, clearly made by Claws. He investigates and finds that not only “Sir Stoner” was there, but also someone who was on church/castle business. Crow’s Eye determines that someone has disguised themself as a knight, so he returns to the castle, furious at his Patron Sir Bastion for being tricked. He calls out his Patron and flips a table, then is censured for that. Sir Crow's Eye is going off the god damn rails.
• Lord Seneca calls to the Unspeakable Power, asking for guidance.. But no answer comes. People in the castle begin to whisper about the dark things the king says in secret when all the doors are closed.
• Drosera also whispers to the Unspeakable Power, and learns that the Church’s Deacons are plotting to get permission to raise an army. (the church has been forbidden from raising a militia outside of the clerics needed to bless weapons)
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Apple Talk / Re: Suu demands to know what you are listening to!
« on: May 26, 2020, 02:46:52 pm »Jimmi play the blues 68
https://youtu.be/JDKj0aX9PRg
hell yeah, that's what I needed this morning
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Apple Talk / Re: Plague Diary
« on: May 26, 2020, 02:34:25 pm »
Over here in NY, we are past the first-wave hump. (see attached graph) We're probably further along than many parts of the country.
The metrics for reopening in NY are:
Westchester NY (where I live, just outside of NYC) used to be the second-worst hit county in the USA... we had a spike on March 5th, but we've been declining continually since then. Gov Cuomo says we can start the phased reopening today.
This doesn't mean that we're in the clear, but it means that we're about as safe as we can be prior to a vaccine coming out.
In NY, the rate of infection amongst essential workers is lower than the infection rate for the general population [citation]), meaning that PPE works. This tells us that "low-risk" businesses could reopen without creating a spike.
The metrics for reopening in NY are:
- Decline in Total Hospitalizations - hospitalization must have been continually declining for 2 weeks. (regions also pass this criteria if they maintain fewer than 15 hospitalizations)
- Decline in Deaths during a 2 week period. If there are spikes, the criteria is failed.
- New Hospitalizations - it’s possible for a region that has seen a high level of infections – for example, New York City – to see a sustained decline in hospitalizations and deaths over a 14-day period, while still having an underlying infection rate that is too high to allow for a safe phased re-opening. Therefore, there needs to be fewer than two new hospitalizations per 100,000 residents (measured on a three-day rolling average)
Westchester NY (where I live, just outside of NYC) used to be the second-worst hit county in the USA... we had a spike on March 5th, but we've been declining continually since then. Gov Cuomo says we can start the phased reopening today.
This doesn't mean that we're in the clear, but it means that we're about as safe as we can be prior to a vaccine coming out.
In NY, the rate of infection amongst essential workers is lower than the infection rate for the general population [citation]), meaning that PPE works. This tells us that "low-risk" businesses could reopen without creating a spike.
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Techmology and Scientism / Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« on: May 25, 2020, 04:33:30 pm »Also, all reports suggest infected individuals stay fucking knocked down from the virus for like 7 weeks in “mild” cases. Like, no heavy lifting, going up or down stairs means it’s nap time, have to have someone home at all times in case your fucking heart stops. For 6 or 7 weeks. For a “mild case”, with no hospitalization.
My friends that have had (all healthy people in their 30s) it say it was like 2 weeks of hell and then ~2 weeks of weakness / feeling crappy but functional.
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Techmology and Scientism / Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« on: May 25, 2020, 04:25:50 pm »
I'm having trouble following the math you posted. My 8th grade math teacher is cringing at me (from HELL). But keep in mind that 0.4% (less than half of one percent) isn't the overall death rate, it's the death rate of symptomatic cases. 35% of the overall cases seem to be asymptomatic.
The antibody testing in NYC has been interesting, too: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-new-york-antibody-test-f4fbed78-646f-4b46-90b8-5e8ca75380e4.html
The antibody testing in NYC has been interesting, too: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-new-york-antibody-test-f4fbed78-646f-4b46-90b8-5e8ca75380e4.html
Quote
As a whole, 19.9% of New York City has tested positive for antibodies, the preliminary study found. At 27.6%, the Bronx is reporting the highest rate of infection
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Techmology and Scientism / Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« on: May 25, 2020, 03:27:16 pm »Cram - I think one of us is misreading the chart. It looks to me that age 0-49 case 5 chance of death is 0.05%
oh you're right, thanks - I updated my post
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Techmology and Scientism / Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« on: May 25, 2020, 02:44:14 pm »
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
The CDC updated its planning scenarios--the modeling is now based on data through April 29th. To put that in context, this is the model they are currently offering to governments and hospitals to plan how the disease will affect the population. The website clarifies:
They break the model into 5 scenarios. Scenarios 1-4 are different assumptions about the disease, ranging from low to high pessimism (scenario 1 assumes low transmission, scenario 4 is a worst case). Scenario 5 is based on the actual data, so it's the current "best guess".
A lot more detail about this on the page I linked. okay, ready for the data?
So if you're caught the disease, and you are displaying symptoms, your chance of death is 0.4%
If you're under 50, your chance is more like %0.05 (1 in 500)
If you're over 65 and have a symptomatic case, your chance of death is much higher, but still less than 1 out of 50 - 1.3%.
Not nearly as bad as the original estimates. That's a relief, right?
Right below that, the chart states that the hospitalization rate for people with a symptomatic case, and are under age 50 is 1.7%.
It also says that aabout 35% of cases are asymptomatic. But asymptomatic cases are still definitely infectious.
If this can be believed, it's good news.
I think these data have a high risk of bad reporting though. Brace yourself I have a feeling we're gonna see a lot of right-wing gaslighting saying "this was never a big deal, we gave up our freedom for nothing". (example)
The CDC updated its planning scenarios--the modeling is now based on data through April 29th. To put that in context, this is the model they are currently offering to governments and hospitals to plan how the disease will affect the population. The website clarifies:
Quote
The parameters in the scenarios:
-Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
-Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
-Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.
They break the model into 5 scenarios. Scenarios 1-4 are different assumptions about the disease, ranging from low to high pessimism (scenario 1 assumes low transmission, scenario 4 is a worst case). Scenario 5 is based on the actual data, so it's the current "best guess".
A lot more detail about this on the page I linked. okay, ready for the data?
So if you're caught the disease, and you are displaying symptoms, your chance of death is 0.4%
If you're under 50, your chance is more like %0.05 (1 in 500)
If you're over 65 and have a symptomatic case, your chance of death is much higher, but still less than 1 out of 50 - 1.3%.
Not nearly as bad as the original estimates. That's a relief, right?
Right below that, the chart states that the hospitalization rate for people with a symptomatic case, and are under age 50 is 1.7%.
It also says that aabout 35% of cases are asymptomatic. But asymptomatic cases are still definitely infectious.
If this can be believed, it's good news.
I think these data have a high risk of bad reporting though. Brace yourself I have a feeling we're gonna see a lot of right-wing gaslighting saying "this was never a big deal, we gave up our freedom for nothing". (example)
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Apple Talk / Re: PICS VIII: 10% LARGER THAN PICS VII
« on: May 25, 2020, 02:23:49 pm »ATTN JOSEPH, CRAMULUS
I love it, they should continue to do this post-q