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Messages - Faust

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In the game of the blind parliament feeling up the elephant, "No", one every vote:

        No deal    160:400
        Common Market 2.0    188:283
        EFTA and EEA    65:367    
        Customs union    264:272
        Labour’s alternative plan    237:307
        Revocation to avoid no deal    184:293
        Confirmatory public vote    268:295
        Contingent preferential arrangements    139:422

So they definitely dont want no deal
They don't want a Norway style deal
They definitely don't want full EEA membership
Could be tempted with a customs union (How this differs from EEA or the Norway customs union I don't know)
They definitely dont want the customs union described above, but from Corbyn
They don't want to revoke to avoid no deal (which means no deal is still the likely outcome as this happens in the absence of action)
Could be tempted to inflict these choice on an already weary public, but would prefer not to.
And I have no idea what a  Contingent preferential arrangements or why people are calling them managed no deal but it seems no one wants that.

By gathering the above broken shards of glass, piecing them together and driving them deep into my taint, I have been able to gain insight, that all of this should be avoided, however it would appear the UK has voted to cease to exist as it has rejected all possible outcomes.

Failing that, the closest option that loosely falls into that pattern, is Mays deal.

Aneristic Illusions / Re: General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread
« on: March 26, 2019, 10:57:30 am »
Can I trade in for a less irritating punishment that lasts longer?
Again... Brexit. Sing Valar Morghulis in praise of  the faceless gods that one day Trump will die, Brexit could go on decades.

Apple Talk / Re: Film Flam
« on: March 25, 2019, 07:44:48 am »
I wasn't so sure about US, didn't like it anywhere near as much as Get out.
I wont talk much about the plot which was an interesting idea and the movies strength (though may have some plot holes on anything other then cursory examination).

The crux of the problem for me was, every time they set up any suspense or tension, it is immediately deflated by a joke or a weird choice in music. I found this negatively effected the pacing for the film for me also which means while there was a lot going on, it still felt like it was dragging.

Cool concept, more ambitious then Get out, but a flawed execution. I still enjoyed it but I had higher expectations then what I got.

With the ERG you have to remember they have to balance May against the idea that someone like Corbyn might seize power and pursue an even closer relationship to Europe than May.  I'm half-convinced they did it at this point to prevent anyone else doing it and succeeding.

This is the closest the UK has been to a dictatorship since universal suffrage.  She has no political or public support, yet she just keeps on going.
She won the vote, the people have spoken. And have no right to change their mind. Christ she has become the physical manifestation of Brexit itself

The ERG were so menacing with their threats of no confidence. They really should have waited if they wanted any kind of effective way of removing her.
I don't see a change of guard having any real effect other then whoever come in, being presented with the same choices.

So, this coup... Can May literally just say "no", because they cant no confidence her? Or just say, fine, I will stand down after the exit date?

12th of April is the new cliff edge, I'd imagine that will get kicked out a couple of times, but wont go past may 23rd and the EU elections.

People in downing street frantically googling "What is a supply chain", followed by "gravity of trade" followed by "what to stockpile in a zombie apocalypse"

If only.  They were too busy making a video to own Parliament and spam on Facebook of her speech last night.

I wish I were making this up.
That was the most unsettling speech I've seen in years. Whole bunch of complex emotions watching it. Revolting, incitement of violence against MPs, odes to fascism without the charisma or good dress sense of fascism. Alternating between outraged with her, and wanting to go up and hug her.


In a warped sense of satisfaction, (and this is where I want people to warn me if I have been drinking the nationalist coolaid) for 80 years Northern Ireland has been Ireland's problem, and it has been dismissed and dismissed.
Now its Everyone's problem.

Personally, I get it I think.

It’s not the same thing at all, but I look at it how trans rights went from “a few freaks no one cares about” to “major social issue” over the course of about two years.

Yeah, it put me in more danger in the medium term, because horrible little goblins are aware I exist and intend to punish me for it, but it isn’t something just me and the 15 internet people I know talk about now, now everyone needs to give a fuck about it one way or the other.

Just finally having all of the bullshit you’ve put up with in relative secrecy out in the open is liberating, even if everything is going to catch fire around it. I think you’re fine.
I don't have a frame of context not being trans myself, but years of being marginalised and rebuffed, or concerns dismissed as irrelevant, yes it is that sense of relief that should everything go down the shitter now, it is impossible to ignore any further.

I wouldn't say optimistic, but there are temporary emergency measures in place for 9 months, if the big ooops is going to come it is going to come then. If it wasn't for them I would say it is likely to happen next week.
That said, you could see 9 months of people frantically divesting from the UK economy and moving it elsewhere so worldwide recession is probable.

What is this backstop you speak of? Not being cheeky. I literally have no idea what you mean.

Crash course Northern Ireland:
Catholics in Northern Ireland had for decades been treated as second class citizens which led to guerilla warfare by the IRA and a whole list of atrocities committed by
The IRA (Republican, see themselves as Irish) Bombings, shootings, disappearances
UVF (Loyalist, see themselves as British)  Bombings, shootings, disappearances
The British Army (used to keep the peace, occasionally fucked up and intentionally or accidentally shot innocent people and children)

Eventually everyone got sick of a war without end.
In 1998, The UK and Ireland (with the US and EU as guarantor) signed a peace treaty called The Good Friday agreement. In short it ended a lot of issues by recognizing the rights of republicans in NI as Irish. Specifically the text is "The right to live as British, Irish or both".
This had the following effects:
Borders were dismantled
The army removed
Ireland removed its claim to Northern Ireland (which it had had since the formation of the state)
The IRA disarmed
People stopped being killed
No one was satisfied or happy but compromised for a lasting peace

This was largely possible because both Ireland and the UK were part of the same customs territory, which deviation would require the introduction of a border.
To the UK a border is just a practicality of mantaining taxation, regulation on goods
To Ireland and the Irish in NI, it is a symbol of division, a symbolic Berlin wall

At the start of these negotiations, Ireland insisted that the UK uphold the Good Friday agreement, this was handwaved away, a response the UK has had for Ireland for centuries. This time something was different. As the Nation most effected by Brexit the EU said "Hang on, we need to sort this out first."
In 2017 The Tory government committed that yes northern Ireland would not be a problem.
The EU put that in a legal text, first proposed as NI directly stay in the Customs Union, which the DUP, a Northern Irish Unionist group (A set of ten time travelers from the 1600's who somehow hold the UK governments balance of power) balked at this.
May evaded committing to this legal text until 2018, it became "the backstop", where Northern Ireland stays in the EU customs union if no other solution is found.
She eventually agreed to this in principle with the EU.
It was shot to pieces when she brought the agreement back to parliament. It is seen as an attempt to Annex Northern Ireland, or by extension control the UK after it leaves the EU. Which I do kind of understand, but the alternative means ripping up a peace treaty.
In reality all Ireland has requested is that NI stay exactly as it is now, Uphold the existing commitment to the Good Friday agreement.

Since then there have been attempts to instead time limit the backstop (IE that it just expires after an amount of time, and then the GFA is reneged on and a border put in place). Ireland has rejected this, as have the EU.
Since then a game of chicken has been played where the UK has assumed that the EU would eventually throw Ireland under the bus and time limit the backstop.
Even if the EU does, to ratify any trade agreement it requires a unanimous vote: Which Ireland will veto. There are still some people who think Ireland will blink, which is unlikely, if our government compromise they will be seen to have betrayed the people of Northern Ireland, at best they would never be voted in again ( I cant understate how important this issue is to the average person).
Therefore the only outcomes that remained were "No deal", "Cancel brexit" or "Reconsider this rejected agreement"

The potential consequences of no deal are:
Worldwide economic collapse (unlikely)
Recession in the EU (probable)
10-20 year economic depression in the UK (Likely in any outcome, including taking the deal, but is estimated at 10% of GDP in no deal)
Food shortages for the UK (unlikely, but possible)
Medical shortage (likely, the UK falls out of the regulatory framework for these unless it adopts all of the EU standards)
Energy disputes (Eirgrid own the grid infrastructure of northern Ireland, and without a dispute mechanism in place for resolving energy payments  they will be requiring energy payments for NI in advance, if not NI could face power outages) (likely)
And most significantly supply chains in the UK which rely on Just in time or have goods that perish could go from a number of hours through the channel tunnel to days. (likely)
That's off the top of my head.

If an economic collapse of the same magnitude of Lehaman brothers is the outcome of no deal brexit, it is a demonstration of why peace in Northern Ireland is so important.  Economic chaos is the price to be paid to uphold that commitment to the rights of the people of Northern Ireland and to protect the peace treaty.

In a warped sense of satisfaction, (and this is where I want people to warn me if I have been drinking the nationalist coolaid) for 80 years Northern Ireland has been Ireland's problem, and it has been dismissed and dismissed.
Now its Everyone's problem.

People in downing street frantically googling "What is a supply chain", followed by "gravity of trade" followed by "what to stockpile in a zombie apocalypse"

I dont know if I agree that the EU would be stupid to allow no deal to happen. Firstly they have no choice, Ireland will veto any deal without the backstop, and second they have been open about their requirements all along.

There's this constant attempt to recontextualise the problem as the EUs to solve,  IE the UK wants it to drop the backstop which wont happen,  no deal is preferrable. If no deal is to happen it better be without extension then prolonging this further.
It may be the only way the UK realises the backstop is non negotiable and will be waiting should they ever want a trade deal,  security deal,  medical research collab, or to restore the flow of goods in and out.
Item 1 on the agenda will always be the backstop. In five years,  ten,  thirty. It will be similar to the Greece/Turkey veto.

I'm fairly certain the EU tactic now is to allow no deal to happen, asset stripping commences, either the UK comes back either looking for Mays deal or full customs union without the backstop.
11% or 1tn pounds of the asset management portfolio is moving out of the UK and that is now regardless of brexit happening or not, they cant wait any longer
I would expect these to increase after no deal occurs.

Principia Discussion / Re: Explaining Ourselves
« on: March 19, 2019, 01:36:26 pm »
A little more about the layer of reality behind our perceptions

No, Chairs do not exist
This is just goading people to crack him over the head with a barstool.

Apple Talk / Re: Capeshit
« on: March 18, 2019, 10:16:10 pm »
And while I get that people have begun shitting on Marvel movies for using humor so much, if the alternative is Man of Steel and Batman v Superman, I will take a heaping spoonful of Emo Phillips.
Those are polar opposites though, BvS is the most dreary, boring, badly written film I've seen in years. The TV show Titans goes with serious drama and it works well because it is mostly a character drama, and has some beautiful cinematography.
I'm not shitting on Marvel exactly, just that well executed comedy is hard to do, Thor Ragnarok does it spectacularly while keeping the pace up and somehow conveying information that is important. In captain marvel, most of the jokes are good, and some fall flat but they kind of come at the expense of other stuff.

Apple Talk / Re: Film Flam
« on: March 18, 2019, 10:10:55 pm »
I'm feeling guilty because I have spent too much time posting posting about superhero films in crams thread.

I'm going to try and add some of the stuff I have watched over the last year that I've enjoyed:
The Killing of the sacred deer. Going to get this one over with fast. Relentlessly uncomfortable to watch this is the opposite of light entertainment. The film is about a surgeon wracked with guilt over botching a heart surgery, and trying but tiring of being a surrogate father to the dead mans kid, the kid then places a curse on his family, a similar curse to the one Artemis placed on.
The whole thing has the same stilted talking past each other dialog of his other film The Lobster, and over time a sick sense of humor fills the story, though not to the extent it ever becomes comfortable.
His other film The Favorite is slick and nasty Victorian intrigue and is good fun and worth watching just for the three lead actresses performance.

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