Three Days of the Condor redux

[Cain]

Turner: Do we have plans to invade the Middle East?
Higgins: Are you crazy?
Turner: Am I?
Higgins: Look, Turner…
Turner: Do we have plans?
Higgins: No. Absolutely not. We have games. That’s all. We play games. What if? How many men? What would it take? Is there a cheaper way to destabilize a regime? That’s what we’re paid to do.
Turner: So Atwood just took the games too seriously. He was really going to do it, wasn’t he?
Higgins: A renegade operation. Atwood knew 54/12 would never authorize it, not with the heat on the company.
Turner: What if there hadn’t been any heat? Suppose I hadn’t stumbled on their plan?
Higgins: Different ballgame. Fact is, there was nothing wrong with the plan. Oh, the plan was all right, the plan would’ve worked.
Turner: Boy, what is it with you people? You think not getting caught in a lie is the same thing as telling the truth?
Higgins: No. It’s simple economics. Today it’s oil, right? In ten or fifteen years, food. Plutonium. And maybe even sooner. Now, what do you think the people are gonna want us to do then?
Turner: Ask them.
Higgins: Not now — then! Ask ‘em when they’re running out. Ask ‘em when there’s no heat in their homes and they’re cold. Ask ‘em when their engines stop. Ask ‘em when people who have never known hunger start going hungry. You wanna know something? They won’t want us to ask ‘em. They’ll just want us to get it for ‘em!
Turner: Boy, have you found a home. There were seven people killed, Higgins.
Higgins: The company didn’t order it.
Turner: Atwood did. Atwood did. And who the hell is Atwood? He’s you. He’s all you guys. Seven people killed, and you play fucking games!
Higgins: Right. And the other side does, too. That’s why we can’t let you stay outside.

Just saying.

And saying again.

Someone's playing a game with the global oil supply chain (all protests aside, no proof has been given by said companies that this is not affecting their ability to supply the global markets, and they have good reasons not to tell the truth about that).  A previously unknown group is claiming repsonsibility.

The attacks were not widespread, leading me to believe it probably was a nation-state without great experience of cyber-warfare operations, perhaps IRGC officers affiliated with hacker groups, and probably not Russia, as some have claimed.

But, just think about this.  That was a relatively unsophisticated, targeted attack.  What happens when an attack comes that is not so discriminatory, that hits multiple oil companies in geographically disparate regions?  What happens when an attack is coordinated to give the impression of chaos within the globa oil supply chain, affecting the market price? 

Someone has opened Pandora's Box here, and if it is Iran, we can trace this back as likely retaliation for the Stunext attacks.  Dangerous territory.  Cyberwarfare is an unregulated field of violence and manipulation, and right now it seems like nothing is considered off limits.

[Prince Glittersnatch III]

If it was Iran, how did they develop them? Did someone give them the weapons?

If Iran managed to develop cyberweapons doesn't that say something about how easy it is to make them? Pretty much any semi-developed country could make them. And if I recall the "cyber war games" from two years ago, our current defense against cyberweapons is to unplug our computers, and I doubt other countries have much better weapons.

So everyone has/can easily get cyber-weapons, these weapons have no real countermeasure and its extremely hard to figure out who fired the shot when an attack is made. Well this should be fun.

[LMNO, PhD (life continues)]

Um, Iran isn't a "semi-developed" country.  The literacy rate is 97% among young adults (aged between 15 and 24) without any gender discrepancy.  Their universities annually graguate about 750,000 people.  Women make up to almost 60% of the university population.  31% of its grads are in engineering, one of the highest in the world.

In short, your anti-Persian bias is showing.

[Balls Wellington]

If Iran managed to develop cyberweapons nuclear weapons doesn't that say something about how easy it is to make them? Pretty much any semi-developed country could make them.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

If it was Iran, how did they develop them? Did someone give them the weapons?

If Iran managed to develop cyberweapons doesn't that say something about how easy it is to make them?

You're making quite an assumption there, PGIII.

[Prince Glittersnatch III]

Um, Iran isn't a "semi-developed" country.  The literacy rate is 97% among young adults (aged between 15 and 24) without any gender discrepancy.  Their universities annually graguate about 750,000 people.  Women make up to almost 60% of the university population.  31% of its grads are in engineering, one of the highest in the world.

In short, your anti-Persian bias is showing.

Sorry, point taken. I wasnt assuming they were idiots, I was just kind of assuming that these weapons took huge well paid teams of computer nerds working in shifts to make. And  then assuming, wrongly, that Iran didnt have the money or manpower to pull that off.

You're making quite an assumption there, PGIII.

Yeah, just woke up and my brain is taking a little while to warm up.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Sorry, point taken. I wasnt assuming they were idiots, I was just kind of assuming that these weapons took huge well paid teams of computer nerds working in shifts to make.

Iran has no shortage of nerds.  We trained the first three batches at the University of Illinois in Chicago 20 years ago, and they've been home-growing them ever since.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

But, just think about this.  That was a relatively unsophisticated, targeted attack.  What happens when an attack comes that is not so discriminatory, that hits multiple oil companies in geographically disparate regions?  What happens when an attack is coordinated to give the impression of chaos within the globa oil supply chain, affecting the market price? 

What happens when refineries have their operations computers thrown sideways?

Yeah.  Bang.   

[Cain]

Glittersnatch:

The code for Stunext is out there on the web.  Anyone can grab it, reverse-engineer it, tinker to change its function and then deploy it.

That's what people don't get about cyberwarfare.  Every weapon you use, once discovered, can be turned back on you. 

Roger: that too, though I'm hoping said computers would not be wired up to the internet in any way.  Wouldn't make it impossible for a state to gain access to them (human assets can always upload a virus manually) but it does raise the opportunity cost.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Roger: that too, though I'm hoping said computers would not be wired up to the internet in any way.  Wouldn't make it impossible for a state to gain access to them (human assets can always upload a virus manually) but it does raise the opportunity cost.

Thing is, you have to count on the control rooms being destroyed in any accident, so you need remote access.  The SMART way would be to hardwire additional control rooms at a remote location.

But we're kinda dumb.

[Cain]

Yeah, I can see that being the case.  Unfortunately, every additional access point lowers the potential cost for attackers. 

The other problem is, geopolitical shenanigans aside, this is an excellent money-making opportunity for any criminal gang with large funds.  Speculation on oil prices coinciding with wide-ranging infrastructure attacks could be a nice little earner for anyone with inside knowledge.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Yeah, I can see that being the case.  Unfortunately, every additional access point lowers the potential cost for attackers. 

The other problem is, geopolitical shenanigans aside, this is an excellent money-making opportunity for any criminal gang with large funds.  Speculation on oil prices coinciding with wide-ranging infrastructure attacks could be a nice little earner for anyone with inside knowledge.

Like, say, the oil companies themselves.

[P3nT4gR4m]

Glittersnatch:

The code for Stunext is out there on the web.  Anyone can grab it, reverse-engineer it, tinker to change its function and then deploy it.

That's what people don't get about cyberwarfare.  Every weapon you use, once discovered, can be turned back on you. 

This is the beauty of cyberwarfare - the warheads are free!

The motivation for going to war used to be big-stuff. Crazed but charismatic dictator, hellbent on world domination, devotes life to gaining power and funds to mobilise a nation to take up arms and march on their chosen enemy. With the right decision makers and the right strategists you might just get your conflict off the ground.

Cyberwarfare? Bored nerd get's pissed off because he's been banned from x-box live, decides to take out his frustration by sinking a fleet of oil tankers. A week passes, his COD account is reinstated and he completely forgets he's even done it.

[Internet Jesus]

Glittersnatch:

The code for Stunext is out there on the web.  Anyone can grab it, reverse-engineer it, tinker to change its function and then deploy it.

That's what people don't get about cyberwarfare.  Every weapon you use, once discovered, can be turned back on you. 

This is the beauty of cyberwarfare - the warheads are free!

The motivation for going to war used to be big-stuff. Crazed but charismatic dictator, hellbent on world domination, devotes life to gaining power and funds to mobilise a nation to take up arms and march on their chosen enemy. With the right decision makers and the right strategists you might just get your conflict off the ground.

Cyberwarfare? Bored nerd get's pissed off because he's been banned from x-box live, decides to take out his frustration by sinking a fleet of oil tankers. A week passes, his COD account is reinstated and he completely forgets he's even done it.

Somewhere a James Bond villains is silently crying himself to sleep.

[The Good Reverend Roger]

Glittersnatch:

The code for Stunext is out there on the web.  Anyone can grab it, reverse-engineer it, tinker to change its function and then deploy it.

That's what people don't get about cyberwarfare.  Every weapon you use, once discovered, can be turned back on you. 

This is the beauty of cyberwarfare - the warheads are free!

The motivation for going to war used to be big-stuff. Crazed but charismatic dictator, hellbent on world domination, devotes life to gaining power and funds to mobilise a nation to take up arms and march on their chosen enemy. With the right decision makers and the right strategists you might just get your conflict off the ground.

Cyberwarfare? Bored nerd get's pissed off because he's been banned from x-box live, decides to take out his frustration by sinking a fleet of oil tankers. A week passes, his COD account is reinstated and he completely forgets he's even done it.

Somewhere a James Bond villains is silently crying himself to sleep.

Well, after the way we fucked up going after that secret submarine base in Ecuador, we can't be trusted with James Bond shit anyway.