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Messages - LMNO, PhD (life continues)

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I crushed it today. Some Smurfs tried taking a few places near me, and I spent lunch running (well, walking) around taking care of business. My only fear is that it will go TOO green, and I won't have anything to do.

Only on purpose next time?

Pragmatically, when it comes to use, I agree.

For me, the pistol has a greater advantage when not in use, aside from being visually intimidating.

Honestly?  If I was working security in a US school, I would really, really want a flamethrower a pistol.  They're easily portable, concealable, have a load more saftey lock options (even biometrics, which is ultra cool), and considering the extremely improbable chance of a Columbine-level event happening, all that's really needed.  If that, even.

Aw, who am I kidding?  Gimme the flamethrower!

This is a bit of a brain twister.

Suppose that 3% of the population has ADHD.

Suppose that of people with ADHD, 50% of them realize they have ADHD like symptoms and go to a psychiatrist to get checked out.

Suppose that of people without ADHD, 10% of them falsely believe they have ADHD and also go to a psychiatrist to get checked out.

The Conners Continuous Performance Test is a commonly used test that evaluates children for ADHD. It is found to have a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 73%. In theory our system is based on faith that a trained psychiatrist can do better than a neuropsychological test; in practice they probably do much worse. Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and say this is an excellent psychiatrist who outperforms the test handily and has both a sensitivity and specificity of 85%.

We can see that of every 100 people, 3 will have ADHD and 97 won’t. 1.5 true patients and 9.7 false patients will show up for psychiatric evaluation. The psychiatrist will diagnose 1.275 true patients and 1.455 false patients with the condition, and prescribes stimulants according to the diagnosis.

So we have three things that, surprisingly, all happen at once:

1. We have an excellent psychiatrist who outperforms the tests and is right 85% of the time.
2. The majority of people who are on Ritalin, shouldn’t be.
3. The majority of people who should be on Ritalin, aren’t.

Number two sounds a lot like what we mean by “overdiagnosis”, and number three sounds a lot like what we mean by “underdiagnosis”. So even with a pretty good psychiatrist acting honestly, we expect ADHD to be both overdiagnosed and underdiagnosed at the same time.

I dunno... I'm pretty anti-gun, but did you see the hardware those two assholes brought to Columbine? Or have you seen what some people wear to their local Walmart?

If the general population are carrying AK47s, what good is a pistol going to do?

Well for starters, you can shoot yourself in the foot during class.

I don't see how anything could go wrong with this plan.

Or Kill Me / Re: NIGGERS!
« on: Today at 11:23:45 am »
So... Scotland is considering breaking off on its own, but they're still keeping the Queen. What's THAT all about?

Freddy Mercury wept.

Nigel touched on a point that bears another look.

On one hand, the conditions that make up life as we know it (for the sake of brevity, we're not going to speculate about creatures that are other than carbon-based, or somehow exist in environments currently unfatyhomable) are extremely rare.  A brief look at what we can see of our galaxy seems to show that to be true.

On the other hand, you've got essentially an infinite universe.  Simple probability insists there should be life out there.

But Nigel has noted that there is a horizon.
Quote from: Your Mom
The laws of physics governing our Universe causes there to be areas that are unreachable for us. For our purposes, they don't exist.

"Infinite universe" though it may be, we'll never know about it.  Just on the other side of the horizon, there could be massive Star Trek and Firefly type civilizations that bounce from star to star.  Maybe there's a solar system where five planets, reachable by nothing more clever than an Apollo-type rocket, are habitible and serve as some galactic council.  We'll never know, and they'll never know about us. 

And when you start thinking probalilistically (is that even a word?), it's far more likely that there's unreachable life, rather than some sort of cataclysmic barrier to being an interstellar species.

Today we take Manhattan, tomorrow we take Berlin.

PANGO is my new short-term personal savior.

Tonight, my boyfriend is going to see Neil DeGrasse Tyson, while I'm going to volunteer at an event at the Columbia Slough.   :kingmeh:

You might be on the higher moral trip?

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